olivLaw · US equity research
Lincoln National Corporation LNC
Life Insurance · SIC 6311 · Vertical: Life Insurance (SIC 6311)
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a holding company whose subsidiaries offer wealth accumulation, wealth protection, group protection and retirement income products. It reported net income available to common stockholders of $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2026, and Annuities ending account balances reached a record $182 billion, which makes it relevant to investors in the life insurance and retirement sector.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) stock was 41.60 USD (−1.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.0 bn USD, P/E 3.6 on diluted EPS of 11.60 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.33%, beta 1.34, 52-week range 32.59–47.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.5 bn USD (+12.3% YoY), net income of 1.3 bn USD (+90.6% YoY), diluted EPS 6.72 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 39.11 – 42.05
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 7.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 41.68 / 39.00
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.05 / -0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.7% | −1.1% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.3% | −0.5% | −10.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.6% | +4.4% | +6.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.6% | +12.3% | −18.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +13.5% | −10.4 pp | +5.9% |
| 3 years | +69.4% | +76.4% | −7.0 pp | +41.1% |
| 5 years | −42.6% | +63.7% | −106.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.5 bn |
| Interest expense | 86.0 m | 83.0 m | 80.0 m | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | -703.0 m | 2.1 bn | -949.0 m | 848.0 m | 524.0 m | 915.0 m | -246.0 m | 1.6 bn |
| Income tax | -175.0 m | 413.0 m | -227.0 m | 149.0 m | 79.0 m | 161.0 m | -74.0 m | 311.0 m |
| Net income | -528.0 m | 1.7 bn | -722.0 m | 699.0 m | 445.0 m | 754.0 m | -172.0 m | 1.3 bn |
| Diluted EPS | -3.29 | 9.69 ≈ | -4.41 | 3.80 | 2.12 | 3.86 ≈ | -1.10 | 6.72 |
| Operating cash flow | -27.0 m ≈ | 222.0 m | -272.0 m | 1.0 bn ≈ | -1.1 bn ≈ | 233.0 m | 138.0 m | -558.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 77.0 m ≈ | 77.0 m | 77.0 m | 76.0 m ≈ | 86.0 m ≈ | 86.0 m | 86.0 m | 86.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 1.7, median 8.3, max 37.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.4 bn | 17.3 bn | 17.4 bn | 17.7 bn | 18.8 bn | 11.6 bn | 18.4 bn | 18.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +15.2% | +5.1% | +1.0% | +1.6% | +6.2% | −38.1% | +58.4% | −1.2% |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 886.0 m | 499.0 m | 3.8 bn | 1.4 bn | -752.0 m | 3.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | −21.1% | −46.0% | −43.7% | +657.1% | −64.1% | −155.4% | unavailable | −64.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.40 | 4.38 | 2.56 | 19.96 | 7.78 | -4.92 | 18.41 | 5.83 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −19.7% | −40.8% | −41.6% | +679.7% | −61.0% | −163.2% | unavailable | −68.3% |
| net % | 10.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 21.3% | 7.2% | -6.5% | 17.8% | 6.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 9.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 6.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- -3.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 10.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 417.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.3%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 423.0 m | 4.6 bn | 1.7 bn | -1.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 499.0 m | 3.8 bn | 1.4 bn | -752.0 m | 3.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.56 | 19.96 | 7.78 | -4.92 | 18.41 | 5.83 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.62 | 1.71 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.8 bn | 9.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Loans | 16.8 bn | 18.0 bn | 18.3 bn | 19.0 bn | 21.1 bn | 22.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 365.9 bn | 386.9 bn | 334.3 bn | 372.4 bn | 390.8 bn | 417.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 300.0 m | 500.0 m | 250.0 m | 300.0 m | 400.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 343.2 bn | 366.2 bn | 329.2 bn | 365.5 bn | 382.6 bn | 406.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 22.7 bn † | 19.9 bn † | 5.1 bn † | 6.9 bn † | 8.3 bn † | 10.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 311.0 m | 319.0 m | 310.0 m | 305.0 m | 307.0 m | 325.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 275.0 m | 1.1 bn | 550.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation66
- Balance sheet3
- Quality95
- Growth0
- Returns81
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.55 – 205.20 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income76.92 – 80.55 (Mid 78.70)
- Justified P/B152.59 – 205.20 (Mid 175.03)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate23.65 – 31.81 (Mid 27.13)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E46.45 – 195.17 (Mid 127.30)16 companies used · median multiple 11.0x · quartiles 4.0x – 16.8xAAME, ANG-PD, ATHS, BHF, CIA, CRBD, FG, GL, GNW, JXN, MET, PFH, PRI, PUK, RGA, VOYA
- Peers: P/B19.55 – 117.27 (Mid 58.07)16 companies used · median multiple 1.0x · quartiles 0.3x – 2.0xAAME, ANG-PD, ATHS, BHF, CIA, CRBD, FG, GL, GNW, JXN, MET, PFH, PRI, PUK, RGA, VOYA
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 22.6% | 95 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 0.6% | 3 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.7x | 56 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 3.6x | 75 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 4.3% | 69 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 15.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial95/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP (LNC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth -1.2%; net margin 12.2%; ROE 22.6%.
The estimated value range is 61.69–156.22 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 103.00 USD, the price of 41.60 USD leaves a potential of 147.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 59.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 22.6%
- P/E (TTM): 3.6x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 15.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.1%
- ROA: 0.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Life Insurance (SIC 6311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 19 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUKPrudential PLC | 67.2 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 34.6% | +7.0% | −10% / +20% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | 65.4 bn | 19.5 | 13.2% | 4.6% | +8.6% | +34% / +62% |
| RGAReinsurance Group Of America, Incorporated | 17.4 bn | 11.7 | 11.7% | 5.8% | +7.2% | +40% / +64% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | 12.2 bn | 10.8 | 19.3% | 18.9% | +3.7% | +20% / +31% |
| VOYAVoya Financial, Inc. | 9.3 bn | 16.7 | 14.3% | 7.8% | +1.7% | +49% / +46% |
| CRBDCorebridge Financial, Inc. | 9.3 bn | 4.6 | 21.7% | 10.6% | −1.2% | −11% / unavailable |
| JXNJackson Financial Inc. | 9.1 bn | 11.1 | 9.5% | 13.4% | +104.3% | +40% / +188% |
| PRIPrimerica, Inc. | 8.8 bn | 11.4 | 33.0% | 23.2% | +6.6% | +11% / +36% |
| LNCLincoln National Corp | 8.0 bn | 3.6 | 22.6% | 12.2% | −1.2% | +3% / +69% |
| PFHPrudential Financial, Inc. | 5.3 bn | 1.4 | 12.6% | 6.3% | −13.7% | −11% / −20% |
| GNWGenworth Financial, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 17.5 | 2.4% | 2.9% | +0.1% | +6% / +56% |
| FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 7.4 | 9.2% | 6.9% | −0.2% | −32% / −46% |
| BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 3.3 | 13.6% | 12.5% | +43.2% | −35% / −18% |
| CIACitizens, Inc. | 209.2 m | 18.0 | 5.0% | 4.5% | +4.3% | −31% / +25% |
| AAMEAtlantic American Corporation | 24.3 m | 4.3 | 5.2% | 2.9% | +11.9% | −51% / −39% |
| ATHSAthene Holding Ltd | 4.7 m | 0.0 | 4.5% | 2.9% | +24.1% | −8% / unavailable |
| ANG-PDAmerican National Group Inc. | 215.5 k | 0.0 | 8.4% | 12.6% | −0.4% | −15% / unavailable |
| AEGAegon Ltd. | — | — | 10.5% | — | +1.1% | +7% / +56% |
| SLFSun Life Financial Inc | — | — | 14.2% | 8.5% | +8.0% | +39% / +62% |
| MFCManulife Financial Corporation | — | — | 11.0% | 68.5% | +7.1% | +31% / +135% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LNC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 24.67 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 43.73 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 66.05 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 21.33 Total return -39% · Per year -15% | 42.80 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 71.34 Total return 89% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 18.45 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 41.89 Total return 23% · Per year 4% | 77.05 Total return 115% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 10.70
- Net margin± 7.49
- Annual revenue growth± 6.50
- Annual dilution± 0.63
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a holding company whose subsidiaries offer wealth accumulation, wealth protection, group protection and retirement income products. It reported net income available to common stockholders of $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2026, and Annuities ending account balances reached a record $182 billion, which makes it relevant to investors in the life insurance and retirement sector.
SWOT
Strengths
- Broad range of accumulation, protection and retirement products across four diversified segments.
- Rising holding company liquidity and record balances in the annuities and retirement segments.
- Proprietary distribution through Lincoln Financial Distributors, working with many intermediaries.
Weaknesses
- Net income is sensitive to capital market movements, creating volatility between quarters.
- Net outflows in the annuities and retirement segments increased compared with the prior year.
Opportunities
- If spread-based products keep growing, the company could stabilise operating income.
- Growth in Life Insurance sales, including Executive Benefits and Core Life, could support expansion.
- Lower holding company debt and greater capital flexibility could allow repurchase of preferred stock.
Threats
- Regulatory changes on distribution, privacy and artificial intelligence could raise compliance costs.
- Price competition and new entrants could limit the fees and premiums the company can charge.
Risks
- Interest rate exposurehigh
Low or persistently high interest rates could affect spreads, the value of the investment portfolio and reserve adequacy.
- Policy surrenders and withdrawalsmedium
Surrenders and withdrawals could force asset sales at a loss and accelerate amortisation of deferred acquisition costs.
- Hedging effectivenessmedium
Hedging strategies might not fully offset changes in the value of guarantees, creating volatility in GAAP results.
- Regulation and taxmedium
Regulatory or tax changes could raise capital requirements and limit business growth.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If markets stay supportive and the retirement segment keeps growing, quarterly results could keep improving.
- Record annuity and retirement balances provide a broader base of fee and spread income.
- Higher holding company liquidity could support repurchase or redemption of preferred stock.
What would break the thesis
- Large net outflows from Annuities suggest client retention could be under pressure in a competitive market.
- Net income well above adjusted operating income shows how much market risk effects can shape reported figures.
What to watch
- Trend in net outflows from Annuities and RILA productsQ3 2026
- Holding company liquidity after prefunding of preferred stockQ3 2026
- Life Insurance margins and the effect of favorable mortalityQ4 2026
- Next annual 10-K and updated risk factors2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Lincoln National Corporation is an Indiana holding company with principal executive offices in Radnor, Pennsylvania, operating through four segments: Annuities, Life Insurance, Group Protection and Retirement Plan Services, plus Other Operations. The marketing name is 'Lincoln Financial'. Products are distributed through Lincoln Financial Distributors, the wholesale distributor working with financial intermediaries, consultants and brokers; Group Protection relies on employee benefit brokers and third-party administrators 1. The results of the former retail distributor, Lincoln Financial Network, run through May 6, 2024 1.
Segments
Life Insurance
The Life Insurance segment includes term, universal, indexed and variable universal life policies and linked-benefit products with long-term care riders. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported operating income of $57 million, up from the prior-year quarter, driven by favorable mortality 3.
Retirement Plan Services
The Retirement Plan Services segment administers employer retirement plans. Operating income rose 32% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, supported by higher spread income and favorable equity markets, while net outflows were recorded 3.
Trends
- Annuity outflowsheadwind
In 2024 and 2025 the Annuities segment saw higher outflows from full surrenders in an elevated rate environment; if this persists it could weigh on balances and profitability 1.
- Shift toward spread-based productstailwind
The company is diversifying its earnings mix toward spread-based products, which made up 63% of Annuities sales in the second quarter of 2026, a shift that could stabilise profitability if margins hold 3.
Competitive position
The company competes with numerous financial services firms in annuities and life insurance. Key factors are distribution channel access, wholesaler quality, investment performance, cost, product breadth, speed to market, brand recognition, financial strength ratings and client service 1. The sources do not name specific competitors, only the categories of rivals in the sector.
- Other U.S. annuity and life insurance providers
The sources name no specific competitors; only sector categories are described.
- Retirement plan administrators
Retirement Plan Services competes with other plan administrators, as described in the competitive pressure risk factors.
- Group protection insurers
Group Protection competes for employee benefits business through brokers and third-party administrators.
- Financial intermediaries and distributors
Competition for access to advisers, brokers and planners influences Annuities sales.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report10 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Proxy statement16 Apr 2026
- Current report31 Mar 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Lincoln National Corporation · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Lincoln National Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lincoln National Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.