olivLaw · US equity research
Aflac Incorporated AFL
Accident & Health Insurance · SIC 6321 · Vertical: Insurance carriers (SIC 632x)
Aflac Incorporated (NYSE: AFL) is an insurer of supplemental health and life products active in Japan and the United States. In the first six months of 2026 total revenues rose to $8.5 billion and net earnings were $1.8 billion. Profits depend heavily on interest rates and the yen, which makes results sensitive to the financial environment.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock was 125.30 USD (+1.02% on the day), with market capitalisation 62.8 bn USD, P/E 13.4 on diluted EPS of 9.33 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.44%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 106.20–129.55 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.1 bn USD (−1.0% YoY), net income of 825.0 m USD (+37.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.63 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 113.97 – 126.73
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 10.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 117.19 / 116.10
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.29 / 1.80
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.5% | −1.1% | +12.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.2% | −0.5% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.5% | +4.4% | +6.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.6% | +12.3% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +15.2% | +13.5% | +1.6 pp | +33.3% |
| 3 years | +52.4% | +76.4% | −24.0 pp | −3.1% |
| 5 years | +120.8% | +63.7% | +57.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.1 bn |
| SG&A | 747.0 m | 835.0 m | 802.0 m | 804.0 m | 781.0 m | 866.0 m | 771.0 m | 749.0 m |
| Interest expense | 49.0 m | 49.0 m | 49.0 m | 51.0 m | 56.0 m | 60.0 m | 59.0 m | 63.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 92.0 m | 2.1 bn | 145.0 m | 822.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 995.0 m |
| Income tax | 185.0 m | 233.0 m | 116.0 m | 223.0 m | 355.0 m | 193.0 m | 206.0 m | 170.0 m |
| Net income | -93.0 m | 1.9 bn | 29.0 m | 599.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.0 bn | 825.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.17 | 3.42 ≈ | 0.05 | 1.11 | 3.08 | 2.64 ≈ | 1.98 | 1.63 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.3 bn ≈ | 333.0 m | 589.0 m | 399.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 315.0 m | 968.0 m | 112.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 270.0 m ≈ | 267.0 m | 306.0 m | 301.0 m ≈ | 299.0 m ≈ | 292.0 m | 304.0 m | 299.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 500.0 m ≈ | 750.0 m | 900.0 m | 829.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 801.0 m | 1.0 bn | 984.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 5.1, median 9.0, max 23.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.8 bn | 22.3 bn | 22.1 bn | 21.6 bn | 19.1 bn | 18.7 bn | 18.9 bn | 17.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.4% | +2.5% | −0.7% | −2.7% | −11.2% | −2.3% | +1.2% | −9.3% |
| Net income | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 3.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | −36.6% | +13.2% | +44.6% | −11.4% | +4.4% | +5.5% | +16.8% | −33.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.77 | 4.43 | 6.67 | 6.25 | 6.93 | 7.78 | 9.63 | 6.82 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −34.7% | +17.5% | +50.6% | −6.3% | +10.9% | +12.3% | +23.8% | −29.2% |
| net % | 13.4% | 14.8% | 21.6% | 19.6% | 23.1% | 24.9% | 28.8% | 21.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 6.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 29.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 116.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 13.1%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 4.2 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.67 | 6.25 | 6.93 | 7.78 | 9.63 | 6.82 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.12 | 1.32 | 1.62 | 1.76 | 2.08 | 2.35 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Loans | 10.6 bn | 11.8 bn | 13.5 bn | 12.5 bn | 10.9 bn | 9.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 165.1 bn | 157.5 bn | 131.7 bn | 126.7 bn | 117.6 bn | 116.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 131.5 bn | 124.3 bn | 111.6 bn | 104.7 bn | 91.5 bn | 87.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 33.6 bn † | 17.0 bn † | 20.1 bn † | 22.0 bn † | 26.1 bn † | 29.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 769.0 m | 855.0 m | 979.0 m | 966.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 60 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 62.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation67
- Quality100
- Growth0
- Returns50
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 69.74 – 218.10 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income69.74 – 72.98 (Mid 71.33)
- Justified P/B111.68 – 150.19 (Mid 128.11)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate30.88 – 41.53 (Mid 35.42)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E123.46 – 218.10 (Mid 172.75)5 companies used · median multiple 18.5x · quartiles 13.2x – 23.4xCI, CNC, ELV, PFG, UNH
- Peers: P/B114.48 – 127.48 (Mid 126.94)5 companies used · median multiple 2.1x · quartiles 1.9x – 2.1xCI, CNC, ELV, HUM, PFG
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 60/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 16.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 4.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 2.1x | 67 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.4x | 67 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 1.4% | 20 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 19.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Aflac Incorporated (AFL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth -9.3%; net margin 26.9%; ROE 16.9%.
The estimated value range is 113.08–138.84 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 127.52 USD, the price of 125.30 USD leaves a potential of 1.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 1.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 16.9%
- ROA: 4.0%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 19.3%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -0.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.6%
- Dividend yield: 1.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Insurance carriers (SIC 632x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 7.7 bn and 494.4 bn (within 8× of the company's); 8 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 366.8 bn | 23.4 | 15.4% | 3.5% | +11.8% | +24% / −26% |
| ELVElevance Health, Inc. | 93.8 bn | 18.5 | 11.6% | 2.5% | +12.5% | +28% / −9% |
| CIThe Cigna Group | 80.7 bn | 13.2 | 15.0% | 2.2% | +11.2% | +10% / +16% |
| AFLAflac Incorporated | 62.8 bn | 13.4 | 16.9% | 26.9% | −9.3% | +15% / +52% |
| HUMHumana Inc | 50.1 bn | 44.5 | 6.2% | 0.8% | +10.1% | +70% / −14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | 37.6 bn | 26.0 | 6.8% | 0.7% | +19.4% | +93% / +3% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc | 24.9 bn | 13.0 | 16.8% | 11.9% | −3.1% | +38% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AFL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 70.75 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 125.61 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 189.92 Total return 53% · Per year 53% |
| 3 years | 57.98 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 116.80 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 195.40 Total return 61% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 47.52 Total return -58% · Per year -16% | 108.62 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 201.04 Total return 69% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 29.20
- Net margin± 20.44
- Annual revenue growth± 18.19
- Annual dilution± 1.72
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Aflac Incorporated (NYSE: AFL) is an insurer of supplemental health and life products active in Japan and the United States. In the first six months of 2026 total revenues rose to $8.5 billion and net earnings were $1.8 billion. Profits depend heavily on interest rates and the yen, which makes results sensitive to the financial environment.
SWOT
Strengths
- The brand and product recognition are strong, and the company leads the cancer insurance market in Japan 1.
- Distribution is diversified across agents, brokers, bank agreements and group alliances in Japan 1.
- The company has kept a steady record of dividend increases, signaling a long-term commitment to shareholders 3.
Weaknesses
- Results are sensitive to the yen/dollar rate, and earnings can fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter 23.
- Concentration of business in Japan and in Japanese government bonds raises exposure to one economy and one capital market 1.
- Investment losses and higher credit loss allowances recently weighed on net earnings 2.
Opportunities
- Recently launched products in Japan, including a new medical and a savings-type product, could support sales if they prove attractive to customers 3.
- Aging populations in Japan and the U.S. may create demand for retirement and nursing care products 1.
- Expansion into dental, vision and other employee benefits could diversify U.S. revenues 3.
Threats
Risks
- Interest rate exposurehigh
Changes in interest rates can directly affect investment income and portfolio values, which could reduce earnings and capital 1.
- Concentration in Japanhigh
Japan is the company's largest market, so economic, fiscal or monetary developments there can directly influence results 1.
- Currency exposuremedium
Yen/dollar fluctuations can change revenues and profit reported in dollars, as seen in the second quarter of 2026 23.
- Cybersecurity incidentmedium
Unauthorized access to U.S. systems exposed personal data of a large number of people, which could lead to costs, penalties or litigation 1.
- Credit quality of investmentsmedium
Rising credit losses and defaults in the portfolio could reduce earnings and capital position 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recently launched products in Japan sustain their sales pace, the company could keep growing revenues and solid margins 3.
- A dividend and share repurchase policy backed by consistent earnings could support long-term shareholder confidence 13.
- A strong brand and a broad distribution network could help the company stay competitive despite rising rivalry 1.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates stay low or fall further, investment income could keep declining and pressure earnings 1.
- Dependence on Japan and the yen means results could be hit by macro or currency shocks that are hard to control 12.
- Costs from the cybersecurity incident and possible litigation could rise if future assessments prove more negative than current ones 1.
What to watch
- Aflac Japan margin development against the 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
- New sales momentum in Japan after the 2025 product launchesQ3 2026
- Final costs and financial impact of the cybersecurity incident2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Aflac Incorporated, incorporated in 1973 in Georgia, provides financial protection through supplemental health and life insurance to millions of policyholders in Japan and the United States. When an insured becomes sick or is hurt, the company pays cash benefits for eligible claims not covered by primary insurance. The company says its growth strategy has stayed straightforward and consistent for many years, centered on supplemental products and the Aflac Duck brand 1.
The business has two reporting segments: Aflac Japan, the principal contributor to consolidated earnings, and Aflac U.S. In 2025 the company repurchased $3.5 billion of its shares and announced a 5.2% increase in its quarterly dividend, effective with the first quarter of 2026 1. Distribution runs through agencies, brokers, bank agreements and alliances with postal and life insurance groups in Japan 1.
In June 2025 the company identified unauthorized access to a limited number of its U.S. systems, affecting personal data of a very large number of people, as the company reported 1. Management does not believe the incident is reasonably likely to have a material impact on financial condition or results, but costs continue to be assessed 1.
Segments
Market context
Demand for supplemental health insurance in Japan remains supported by an aging population and rising medical costs, while the U.S. market is dominated by products distributed through employers 1. The company also operates in a market where the number of insurers offering standalone cancer and medical products has grown since the 2001 deregulation 1.
Demand depends on economic conditions, interest rates and employment, because the products are discretionary and sold largely at the worksite 1. A weaker economy could reduce new sales or raise policy lapse rates 1.
Trends
- Aging population in Japantailwind
Japanese consumers increasingly bear medical costs that the national system no longer covers, which raises interest in supplemental insurance 1.
- Yen/dollar exchange ratemixed
A weaker yen lowers revenues stated in dollars but supported income from dollar-denominated assets, so its effect is mixed 23.
- Interest rates and investment yieldsheadwind
Low interest rates over the last decade reduced investment income, and rate changes can affect the value of the bond portfolio 1.
- Digital and affordable productstailwind
Customers in Japan and the U.S. seek products that are easy to understand, affordable and accessible digitally, giving the company a clear product direction 1.
Competitive position
The company says the size of its in-force premiums, its diversified distribution network and its well-known brand help it remain the leader in cancer and medical insurance in Japan 1. Competition has nevertheless intensified since 2001 as more insurers entered the market 1.
In the U.S. the company competes on product design, price, policyholder service and sales efforts 1. It says operating efficiency lets it offer affordable products, but the level of competition remains a risk area 1.
- Other cancer and medical insurers in Japan
Carriers that entered the Japanese stand-alone cancer and medical market after the 2001 deregulation 1.
- Dai-ichi Life
Distribution partner whose representatives offer the company's cancer products in Japan 1.
- Japan Post Group
Distribution partner whose postal outlets sell the company's cancer products in Japan 1.
- U.S. supplemental health insurers
Companies selling supplemental health products through employers and brokers, the same channels used by Aflac U.S. 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Aflac Japan reports breach on 4.38m customers, includes bank detailsNikkei Asia · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
- Aflac Japan reports breach on 4.38 million customers, includes bank detailsNikkei Asia · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
- Aflac Japan Data Breach Impacts 4.38 MillionSecurityWeek · 30 Jun 2026 · RO
- Aflac Japan reports data breach affecting over 4 million customersThe Japan Times · 30 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 01 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jun 2026Other events
- Current report28 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement19 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aflac Incorporated · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Aflac Incorporated · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aflac Incorporated · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.