olivLaw · US equity research
Centene Corporation CNC
Hospital & Medical Service Plans · SIC 6324 · Vertical: Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324)
Centene Corporation is the largest managed care company in the US focused on underserved populations, with total revenues of 194.8 billion USD in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported a consolidated HBR of 89.6% and raised full-year revenue guidance to 193.5-197.5 billion USD. Medical cost pressure and legislative changes remain the key factors to watch.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Centene Corporation (CNC) stock was 76.01 USD (+12.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 37.6 bn USD, P/E 26.0 on diluted EPS of 2.92 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.21, 52-week range 31.80–76.01 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 50.6 bn USD (+1.9% YoY), net income of -71.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.14 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 64.09 – 73.67
- above the upper band · %B 1.24 · band width 13.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 66.39 / 55.71
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.20 / 1.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +18.2% | −1.1% | +19.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +13.5% | −0.5% | +13.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +37.4% | +4.4% | +33.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +84.7% | +12.3% | +72.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +110.5% | +13.5% | +97.0 pp | +28.4% |
| 3 years | +9.7% | +76.4% | −66.8 pp | +8.5% |
| 5 years | +2.5% | +63.7% | −61.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 40.8 bn | 46.6 bn | 48.7 bn | 49.7 bn | 49.7 bn | 49.9 bn | 53.6 bn | 50.6 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 688.0 m | 698.0 m | 641.0 m | 651.0 m | 680.0 m | 702.0 m | 729.0 m | 675.0 m |
| Gross profit | 3.8 bn | 5.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.3 bn |
| SG&A | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Operating income | 175.0 m | 1.5 bn | -458.0 m | -7.0 bn | -1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | -307.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 314.0 m | 314.0 m | 315.0 m ≈ | 317.0 m ≈ | 329.0 m | 300.0 m | 300.0 m ≈ | 299.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 172.0 m | 170.0 m | 170.0 m | 170.0 m | 168.0 m | 164.0 m | 153.0 m | 149.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 347.0 m | 1.7 bn | -257.0 m | -6.7 bn | -1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.5 bn | -122.0 m |
| Income tax | 67.0 m | 432.0 m | 2.0 m | -42.0 m | -443.0 m | 560.0 m | 399.0 m | -57.0 m |
| Net income | 283.0 m | 1.3 bn | -253.0 m | -6.6 bn | -1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | -71.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.56 ≈ | 2.63 | -0.51 | -13.50 | -2.24 ≈ | 3.11 | 2.19 | -0.14 |
| Operating cash flow | -587.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 437.0 m | 4.4 bn | 3.6 bn ≈ | -3.7 bn |
| Capex | 154.0 m | 135.0 m | 208.0 m ≈ | 211.0 m ≈ | 213.0 m | 200.0 m | 174.0 m ≈ | 194.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 943.0 m | 41.0 m | 432.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 2.0 m | 29.0 m | 4.0 m ≈ | 24.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 80 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 8.9, median 16.7, max 59.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 60.1 bn | 74.6 bn | 111.1 bn | 126.0 bn | 144.5 bn | 154.0 bn | 163.1 bn | 194.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +24.3% | +24.2% | +48.9% | +13.4% | +14.7% | +6.5% | +5.9% | +19.4% |
| Net income | 900.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.3 bn | -6.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | +8.7% | +46.8% | +36.9% | −25.5% | −10.8% | +124.8% | +22.3% | −301.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.26 | 3.14 | 3.12 | 2.28 | 2.07 | 4.95 | 6.31 | -13.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −3.4% | +38.9% | −0.6% | −26.9% | −9.2% | +139.1% | +27.5% | −314.4% |
| net % | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | -3.4% |
| Free cash flow | 559.0 m | 753.0 m | 4.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 7.3 bn | -490.0 m | 4.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 17.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 17.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- -487.0 m USD
- Equity
- 20.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 76.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.87x
- Current ratio
- 1.10x
- ROE
- -28.7%
- ROA
- -8.4%
- FCF margin
- 2.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 2.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | -6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.3 bn | -6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.12 | 2.28 | 2.07 | 4.95 | 6.31 | -13.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10.8 bn | 13.1 bn | 12.1 bn | 17.2 bn | 14.1 bn | 17.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 68.7 bn | 78.4 bn | 76.9 bn | 84.6 bn | 82.4 bn | 76.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 97.0 m | 267.0 m | 82.0 m | 119.0 m | 110.0 m | 50.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 16.7 bn | 18.6 bn | 17.9 bn | 17.7 bn | 18.4 bn | 17.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 42.8 bn | 51.4 bn | 52.6 bn | 58.7 bn | 55.9 bn | 56.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 25.9 bn | 26.9 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.9 bn | 26.5 bn | 20.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | 626.0 m | 297.0 m | 3.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 475.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 37.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
62% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.53 – 169.13 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income41.36 – 43.29 (Mid 42.31)
- Justified P/B24.53 – 33.00 (Mid 28.14)
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E61.17 – 169.13 (Mid 73.70)7 companies used · median multiple 25.2x · quartiles 20.9x – 57.9xALHC, CI, ELV, HUM, OSCR, TRUP, UNH
- Peers: P/B100.88 – 150.41 (Mid 124.29)6 companies used · median multiple 2.8x · quartiles 2.2x – 3.4xCI, ELV, HUM, MOH, TRUP, UNH
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 6.8% | 38 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 1.8% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.7x | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.0x | 43 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet52/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial38/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CENTENE CORPORATION (CNC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 19.4%; net margin 0.7%; ROE 6.8%.
The estimated value range is 51.27–96.85 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 58.00 USD, the price of 76.01 USD leaves a potential of -23.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -31.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.5%
- P/B: 1.7x
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 366.8 bn | 23.4 | 15.4% | 3.5% | +11.8% | +24% / −26% |
| ELVElevance Health, Inc. | 93.8 bn | 18.5 | 11.6% | 2.5% | +12.5% | +28% / −9% |
| CIThe Cigna Group | 80.7 bn | 13.2 | 15.0% | 2.2% | +11.2% | +10% / +16% |
| HUMHumana Inc | 50.1 bn | 44.5 | 6.2% | 0.8% | +10.1% | +70% / −14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | 37.6 bn | 26.0 | 6.8% | 0.7% | +19.4% | +110% / +10% |
| MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc. | 11.8 bn | — | -1.2% | -0.1% | +11.7% | +53% / −38% |
| ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 71.3 | 13.2% | 0.6% | +46.1% | −58% / +9% |
| TRUPTrupanion, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 74.8 | — | — | +11.9% | −5% / +31% |
| OSCROscar Health, Inc. | — | 25.2 | 34.3% | 3.6% | +27.5% | +96% / +314% |
| CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp. | — | — | -5.1% | -0.7% | +40.3% | +88% / +409% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CNC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 48.09 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 84.79 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 127.40 Total return 68% · Per year 68% |
| 3 years | 52.42 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 103.44 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 169.81 Total return 123% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 57.15 Total return -25% · Per year -6% | 126.19 Total return 66% · Per year 11% | 226.35 Total return 198% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 25.86
- Net margin± 18.10
- Annual revenue growth± 14.06
- Annual dilution± 1.52
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Centene Corporation is the largest managed care company in the US focused on underserved populations, with total revenues of 194.8 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 it reported a consolidated HBR of 89.6% and raised full-year revenue guidance to 193.5-197.5 billion USD 3. Medical cost pressure and legislative changes remain the key factors to watch 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading positions in Medicaid, Marketplace and PDP provide scale and extensive data on the populations served 1.
- The local model, with local brands and teams, supports relationships with states and providers 1.
- Improved second quarter 2026 results and a raised outlook point to operational discipline 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Medical cost estimation errorhigh
Profitability depends on accurate estimates of health costs, and differences can quickly change results 1.
- Medicaid policy and OBBBAhigh
Changes in eligibility and funding could reduce membership and alter rates, with effects from 2027 and 2028 12.
- Marketplace risk adjustmentmedium
Risk adjustment is estimated and variable, and the performance of other insurers can significantly influence it 1.
- Medicare Star ratingsmedium
Lower Star ratings could reduce quality bonuses and affect contract renewals 1.
- Delayed CMS paymentslow
Delays in Part D risk-sharing payments could affect cash flows 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- HBR trends in Medicaid and MarketplaceQ3 2026
- Effect of OBBBA work requirements on Medicaid members2027
- Medicare Advantage Star ratings and 2027 rate outcomes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Centene aims to transform the health of the communities it serves and operates four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial and Other 1. In fiscal 2025, Medicaid accounted for 57% of external revenues, Commercial 21%, Medicare 19% and Other 3% 1. The company served 27.6 million members as of December 31, 2025 1.
The company was organized in Wisconsin and runs local plans with local teams under a national brand, adapting to each state's programs 1. Its model includes partnerships with providers, policymakers and communities, including access to food, housing and transportation as part of health outcomes 1. Shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CNC 1.
Centene differentiates itself through its leading position in programs for low-income populations and integration of Medicaid with Medicare for dual-eligible members 1. PDP membership expanded in 2026, supporting the Medicare segment 3.
Segments
Medicare
Medicare covers Medicare Advantage, D-SNP, PDP and Medicare Supplement plans 1. The company served 1.0 million Medicare Advantage members and 8.1 million PDP members as of December 31, 2025, making it the largest stand-alone PDP provider 1. The Medicare segment HBR was 89.5% in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Trends
- Accelerating medical cost trendheadwind
The company has seen an accelerated rise in medical costs since 2025, driven by higher demand, expanded state-level access and high-cost drugs 12. This could compress margins if rates do not adjust quickly enough 1.
- Rate adjustments and quarterly resultstailwind
Rate increases in Marketplace and Medicaid contributed to a lower consolidated HBR in the second quarter of 2026 3. Profit guidance was raised, with some non-recurring items included 3.
- Medicaid reforms and OBBBAheadwind
The OBBBA could reduce eligible members through work requirements and more frequent redeterminations, and federal funding changes from 2028 could alter programs 12. The impact depends on state implementation plans 2.
- D-SNP integrationmixed
CMS rules will require dual-eligible members to be integrated into Medicaid companies' D-SNP plans, with restrictions from 2027 and full requirement from 2030 1. The company believes its overlapping Medicaid and Medicare Advantage footprint positions it well 1.
Competitive position
The company is the largest Medicaid and Marketplace insurer in the US, but price and broker competition can force adjustments each cycle 1. Exits by other carriers could change the risk pool and risk adjustment revenue 1.
In PDP and Medicare Advantage, competitors may offer lower premiums or different distribution channels, which could affect the company's share 1. Star ratings quality influences plan attractiveness relative to rivals 1.
- UnitedHealth GroupUNH
Major competitor in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, part of the broader competitive environment described in the sources
- Elevance HealthELV
Insurer active in Medicaid and Marketplace markets, competing with Centene for the same state contracts
- Molina HealthcareMOH
Medicaid-focused provider and direct competitor for state contracts covering low-income populations
- HumanaHUM
Competitor in Medicare Advantage and Part D prescription drug plans
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Centene Corp. (CNC) Soared 98.8% in Q2: What Drove the Massive Gain?Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 27 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
- Current report08 Oct 2026Other events
- Current report16 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report17 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jul 2026Other events
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Centene Corporation · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Centene Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Centene Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.