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olivLaw · US equity research

Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH

Hospital & Medical Service Plans · SIC 6324 · Vertical: Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324)

226.42USD+8.93% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Molina Healthcare is a managed healthcare company focused entirely on government-sponsored programs: Medicaid, Medicare and state insurance marketplaces. The company is going through a difficult stretch, with medical costs rising faster than the rates it receives and margins sharply compressed; in fiscal 2025 the consolidated MCR reached 91.7% while total revenue reached 45.4 billion USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) stock was 226.42 USD (+8.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.8 bn USD, beta 0.07, 52-week range 122.65–242.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.1 bn USD (−3.4% YoY), net income of 38.0 m USD (−51.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.73 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
11.8 bn USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.96 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-0.42%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.07
Volatility (1y) 53%
52-week range
122.65242.88

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
67.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
192.34 – 223.16
above the upper band · %B 1.11 · band width 14.8%
SMA 50 / 200
201.47 / 185.23
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.11 / 2.23
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.7%−1.1%+17.8 pp—
3 months+16.0%−0.5%+16.5 pp—
6 months+14.7%+4.4%+10.3 pp—
Year to date+30.5%+12.3%+18.2 pp—
1 year+49.3%+13.5%+35.7 pp+28.4%
3 years−32.9%+76.4%−109.3 pp+8.5%
5 years−25.6%+63.7%−89.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−39.2%
23 Jan 2026 → 11 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−70.8%
19 Mar 2024 → 11 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−5.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
11.1 bn USD
−3.4% YoY
Net income
38.0 m USD
−51.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.73
−51.7% YoY
net / operating
0.3% / 1.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue10.5 bn11.1 bn11.4 bn11.5 bn11.4 bn10.8 bn10.9 bn11.1 bn
Cost of revenue9.0 bn9.5 bn9.8 bn10.0 bn10.1 bn9.3 bn9.4 bn9.7 bn
Operating income380.0 m433.0 m373.0 m137.0 m-162.0 m83.0 m145.0 m106.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation48.0 m48.0 m58.0 m45.0 m44.0 m39.0 m40.0 m38.0 m
Interest expense34.0 m43.0 m48.0 m49.0 m52.0 m54.0 m54.0 m53.0 m
Pre-tax income346.0 m390.0 m325.0 m88.0 m-214.0 m29.0 m91.0 m53.0 m
Income tax95.0 m92.0 m70.0 m9.0 m-54.0 m15.0 m31.0 m15.0 m
Net income251.0 m298.0 m255.0 m79.0 m-160.0 m14.0 m60.0 m38.0 m
Diluted EPS4.44 ≈5.454.751.51-3.15 ≈0.271.190.73
Operating cash flow-224.0 m190.0 m-302.0 m ≈-125.0 m ≈-298.0 m1.1 bn-294.0 m ≈-159.0 m ≈
Capex11.0 m22.0 m42.0 m ≈38.0 m ≈-1.0 m27.0 m30.0 m ≈37.0 m ≈
Share repurchases500.0 m500.0 m0 ≈500.0 m ≈000 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue18.9 bn16.8 bn19.4 bn27.8 bn32.0 bn34.1 bn40.7 bn45.4 bn
Revenue YoY−5.0%−10.9%+15.4%+43.0%+15.1%+6.6%+19.3%+11.7%
Net income707.0 m737.0 m673.0 m659.0 m792.0 m1.1 bn1.2 bn472.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable+4.2%−8.7%−2.1%+20.2%+37.8%+8.1%−60.0%
Diluted EPS10.6111.4711.2311.2513.5518.7720.428.92
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+8.1%−2.1%+0.2%+20.4%+38.5%+8.8%−56.3%
net %3.7%4.4%3.5%2.4%2.5%3.2%2.9%1.0%
Free cash flow-344.0 m377.0 m1.8 bn2.0 bn682.0 m1.6 bn544.0 m-636.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.2 bn USD
Financial debt
3.8 bn USD
Net debt
-482.0 m USD
Equity
4.1 bn USD
Total assets
15.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.93x
Current ratio
1.69x
ROE
11.0%
ROA
3.0%
FCF margin
-1.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Income statement · USD

Pre-tax income
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
589.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
472.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
18.77
2024
20.42
2025
8.92

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.8 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
14.9 bn
2024
15.6 bn
2025
15.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2021verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
10.7 bn
2024
11.1 bn
2025
11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.2 bn †
2024
4.5 bn †
2025
4.1 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-60.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-56.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025

Profitability

Net margin
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
11.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Insurance

Loss ratio
unavailable
input data missing

32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

226.42 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 11.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
11.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

10/20 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2305derived 166

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
107.78
USD per share
Mid
126.51
USD per share
High
163.75
USD per share
Price: 226.42 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -44.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -79.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 60.75 – 263.97 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Residual income60.75 – 63.52 (Mid 62.11)
  • Justified P/Bunavailable · insufficient data
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/B154.82 – 263.97 (Mid 190.91)
    6 companies used · median multiple 2.4x · quartiles 1.9x – 3.3x
    CI, CNC, ELV, HUM, TRUP, UNH
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality-1.2%13 (vs peers)31%
Loss ratio · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-13.0%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth12.4%100 (on a fixed band)14%
ROA · Balance sheet-0.3%0 (on a fixed band)14%
P/B · Valuation2.8x43 (vs peers)24%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Dividend yield · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial13/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial43/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC. (MOH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 11.7%; net margin -0.1%; ROE -1.2%.

The estimated value range is 107.78–163.75 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 126.51 USD, the price of 226.42 USD leaves a potential of -44.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -79.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.4%

What contradicts it

  • ROE: -1.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -13.0%
  • ROA: -0.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).

Versus the vertical median

Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 25.6x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−26.7%)
P/B
2.8x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+5.5%)
ROE
-1.2%
vertical median 12.4%
below median (−109.3%)
Net margin
-0.1%
vertical median 1.5%
below median (−107.2%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
11.7%
vertical median 12.5%
below median (−6.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated366.8 bn23.415.4%3.5%+11.8%+24% / −26%
ELVElevance Health, Inc.93.8 bn18.511.6%2.5%+12.5%+28% / −9%
CIThe Cigna Group80.7 bn13.215.0%2.2%+11.2%+10% / +16%
HUMHumana Inc50.1 bn44.56.2%0.8%+10.1%+70% / −14%
CNCCentene Corporation37.6 bn26.06.8%0.7%+19.4%+93% / +3%
MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.11.8 bn—-1.2%-0.1%+11.7%+49% / −33%
ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc.1.7 bn71.313.2%0.6%+46.1%−58% / +9%
TRUPTrupanion, Inc.1.5 bn74.8——+11.9%−5% / +31%
OSCROscar Health, Inc.—25.234.3%3.6%+27.5%+96% / +314%
CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.——-5.1%-0.7%+40.3%+88% / +409%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MOH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (22 Oct 2026).

    In brief

    Molina Healthcare is a managed healthcare company focused entirely on government-sponsored programs: Medicaid, Medicare and state insurance marketplaces. The company is going through a difficult stretch, with medical costs rising faster than the rates it receives and margins sharply compressed; in fiscal 2025 the consolidated MCR reached 91.7% while total revenue reached 45.4 billion USD 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a solid track record of winning re-procurement bids, with a high reported success rate 1.
    • The pure-play government business model offers a focused and predictable customer base 1.
    • The balance sheet is sound, with parent-company liquidity and the capacity to return capital to shareholders 2.

    Weaknesses

    • Margins are very thin, and small deviations from medical cost estimates can have disproportionate effects on profit 1.
    • Profitability depends on predicting medical costs accurately, which has proven difficult in recent years 1.
    • State contracts rely on rates that have lagged costs, creating an imbalance between rates and trend 1.

    Opportunities

    • Acquisitions of smaller regional plans could expand the member base, as many such plans are exploring strategic options 1.
    • The 2027 rate updates and a stabilizing medical cost trend could support a recovery in Medicaid margins 2.
    • Integrating dual-eligible populations could open demand for more coordinated services 1.

    Threats

    • If medical costs remain elevated, margin pressure could persist and affect financial results 1.
    • Losing a major contract at rebid could significantly reduce revenue 1.
    • Changes in public policy on subsidies and eligibility could reduce membership and alter the risk profile 1.

    Risks

    • State rates could remain below medical costshigh

      If rates paid by states grow more slowly than medical costs, margins could be compressed or eliminated, and earnings could be affected 1.

    • Dependence on a few stateshigh

      A small number of Medicaid contracts in states such as California, New York, Texas and Washington generate a large share of revenue, so a loss could have material effects 1.

    • Volatility of the Marketplace segmentmedium

      Marketplace enrollment is sensitive to prices and subsidies, and annual changes can be difficult to price actuarially 1.

    • Reserve development and retroactive adjustmentsmedium

      Retroactive adjustments or recoupments by states can create uncertainty over recognized revenue and affect quarterly results 1.

    • Cybersecurity and third-party vendor risksmedium

      The company relies on third parties for services and sensitive data, and a security incident could generate costs, sanctions and reputational damage 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the stabilization of medical costs is confirmed and the 2027 rate updates translate into better margins, earnings could return to an upward path 2.
    • The company has a track record of winning bids and an acquisition strategy that could expand its member base in an accretive way 1.
    • Investments in artificial intelligence and cost management could produce efficiencies that support margins over the medium term 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • If pressure from medical costs persists at elevated levels, the MCR could remain above the long-term target, weighing on profit 1.
    • Declining Medicaid and Marketplace enrollment, driven by redeterminations and the expiration of subsidies, could reduce premium revenue more than anticipated 1.
    • The very thin operating margin leaves little room for error, so one lost rebid or one wrong estimate could have a material impact 1.

    What to watch

    • Medicaid MCR trajectory and confirmation that the medical cost trend has stabilizedQ4 2026
    • Impact of the Florida Medicaid contract on margins, given the expected 1.50 USD per share lossQ4 2026
    • Full year 2027 guidance and the effect of rate updates on the MCR2027
    • Evolution of Marketplace enrollment after subsidy expiration, as reported in the next annual reportnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (22 Oct 2026).

    The business

    Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a FORTUNE 500 company that provides managed healthcare services through Medicaid and Medicare programs and state insurance marketplaces, serving about 5.5 million members across 21 states as of December 31, 2025 1. The company describes itself as a pure-play government-sponsored healthcare business, with revenue coming mainly from premiums paid monthly per member by states and the federal government 1.

    The business model means Molina bears medical cost risk: premiums are fixed by contract, while the company pays for the services delivered to members 1. Margins are therefore very thin, and gaps between actual costs and rates pass directly into profit or loss 1. The long-term strategy targets organic growth and accretive acquisitions, with a premium revenue growth target of 11% to 13% 1.

    In 2025 the company closed the ConnectiCare acquisition, at a purchase price of 350 million USD, and won several Medicaid and Medicare procurements, including in Idaho, Michigan, Florida and Illinois 1. For 2026 management reaffirmed premium and adjusted earnings guidance, while the third quarter of 2026 showed continued margin pressure 2.

    Segments

    Medicaid

    Medicaid is the largest segment, representing 75% of consolidated premium revenue in fiscal 2025 1. Segment premium revenue was 32.2 billion USD in 2025, and the MCR rose to 91.8%, above 2024 levels 1. Four largest regional health plans, in California, New York, Texas and Washington, concentrated a large share of this revenue 1.

    Medicare

    The Medicare segment, with premium revenue of 6.2 billion USD in 2025, grew mainly thanks to members from ConnectiCare, but its MCR reached 92.4% due to high utilization in the high-acuity population 1. The company exited MAPD products in thirteen states to focus on the dual-eligible population 1.

    Marketplace

    The Marketplace segment grew from 2.5 to 4.5 billion USD in premiums in 2025, but it is volatile and sensitive to premium subsidies, some of which expired at the end of 2025 1. Segment margin fell sharply compared with 2024, and the expiration of subsidies could reduce membership 1.

    Market context

    The market Molina operates in is dominated by government programs, where states award contracts through periodic bids, usually for three to five years 1. Competition for contracts is intense, and losing a contract at rebid can significantly reduce revenue 1.

    State rates are usually updated once a year, and cost growth has recently outpaced these adjustments, compressing margins across the industry 1. The company notes that the cost trend appears to be plateauing at elevated levels, and recent 2027 rate updates could signal a turn in Medicaid margins 2.

    Trends

    • Rising medical costsheadwind

      Medical costs and utilization grew faster than the rates received from states, compressing the MCR across all segments in 2025 1. If the trend stabilizes, as management suggested in the third quarter of 2026, margin pressure could ease 2.

    • Lower Medicaid enrollmentmixed

      Medicaid enrollment has declined due to eligibility redeterminations, and management expects a flat population in 2026 as new contracts such as Florida Kids offset contraction 1. Lower membership may limit revenue growth, but the remaining population tends to have higher medical needs 1.

    • Expiration of Marketplace subsidiesheadwind

      The expiration of certain premium tax credits at the end of 2025 could reduce enrollment and produce an adverse shift in the risk pool 1. This pressures volume in the Marketplace segment, which depends on prices and subsidies 1.

    • Integration of dual-eligible membersmixed

      Integrating Medicaid and Medicare programs for dual-eligible members in many states creates both an opportunity and a threat, offering access to high-need populations but also operational risks 1. The company exited MAPD products to focus on this population 1.

    • Artificial intelligence and efficiencytailwind

      The company is making substantial investments in artificial intelligence tools to improve effectiveness and control medical and administrative costs 1. The effect on margins could become visible if these investments reduce unit costs over the medium term 1.

    Competitive position

    Molina competes with other government-sponsored health plan providers for state contracts, through bids where price, performance and operational experience matter 1. The supplied sources do not explicitly name competitors, so the list below reflects only the categories implied in the documents.

    Competition is even stronger in the Marketplace and Medicare markets, because members choose plans on price and switch providers quickly 1. A provider with lower costs or a better risk profile could win contracts at the company's expense 1.

    • Other Medicaid managed care plan providers

      Companies bidding for the same state Medicaid contracts, though the sources do not name them explicitly.

    • Medicare Advantage plan providers

      Providers offering MAPD plans that compete for the Medicare population in the same states.

    • Marketplace plan providers

      Companies selling plans on state insurance marketplaces that are sensitive to the same premium subsidies.

    • Smaller or less diversified health plans

      Regional providers that, according to management, could consider strategic options in the current challenging operating environment.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 30 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Molina Healthcare, Inc. · 10 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Molina Healthcare, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.