olivLaw · US equity research
Trupanion, Inc. TRUP
Hospital & Medical Service Plans · SIC 6324 · Vertical: Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324)
Trupanion provides medical insurance for cats and dogs in the United States, Canada and some countries in Continental Europe, using a vertically integrated model built on pet health data. In the first half of 2026 the company grew revenue, while total insured pets fell slightly as its Pets Best business declined, which makes the trajectory of the subscription segment central to the outlook.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) stock was 33.68 USD (+8.21% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.5 bn USD, P/E 74.8 on diluted EPS of 0.45 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.99, 52-week range 21.46–42.49 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 392.9 m USD (+11.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 79.3
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 24.92 – 32.66
- above the upper band · %B 1.13 · band width 26.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 26.90 / 26.62
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.53 / 1.13
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +37.1% | −1.1% | +38.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +38.1% | −0.5% | +38.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +35.1% | +4.4% | +30.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.9% | +12.3% | −22.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.5% | +13.5% | −28.1 pp | +52.7% |
| 3 years | +28.8% | +76.4% | −47.6 pp | +3.2% |
| 5 years | −73.8% | +63.7% | −137.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 327.5 m | 337.3 m | 342.0 m | 353.6 m | 366.9 m | 376.9 m | 384.0 m | 392.9 m |
| Cost of revenue | 278.1 m | 284.4 m | 290.9 m | 298.7 m | 306.9 m | 311.8 m | 322.6 m | 327.8 m |
| Operating income | 1.7 m | 348.0 k | -1.5 m | 2.3 m | 5.9 m | 7.1 m | 4.8 m | 6.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.4 m | 3.9 m | 3.8 m | 4.0 m | 4.1 m | 4.0 m | 3.7 m | 3.7 m |
| Interest expense | 3.8 m | 3.4 m | 3.2 m | 3.7 m | 2.8 m | 4.1 m | 1.9 m | 1.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.5 m | 1.7 m | -1.4 m | 10.5 m | 6.6 m | 6.3 m | 6.0 m | 7.4 m |
| Income tax | 39.0 k | 38.0 k | 39.0 k | 1.1 m | 726.0 k | 663.0 k | 1.1 m | 542.0 k |
| Diluted EPS | 0.03 | — | -0.03 | 0.22 | 0.13 | — | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Operating cash flow | 15.3 m ≈ | 23.7 m | 16.0 m | 15.0 m ≈ | 29.2 m ≈ | 29.3 m | 14.6 m | 21.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.9 m ≈ | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | 3.0 m ≈ | 5.3 m ≈ | 3.9 m | 847.0 k | 1.8 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 853.8, median 853.8, max 853.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 304.0 m | 383.9 m | 502.0 m | 699.0 m | 905.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +25.3% | +26.3% | +30.8% | +39.2% | +29.5% | +22.5% | +16.0% | +11.9% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -0.16 | -0.89 | -1.10 | -1.08 | -0.23 | 0.45 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -44.3 m | 10.8 m | 14.1 m | -4.9 m | -25.1 m | 358.0 k | 38.6 m | 75.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 138.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 111.8 m USD
- Net debt
- -26.2 m USD
- Equity
- 383.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 915.0 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.29x
- Current ratio
- 1.69x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -5.7 m | -35.2 m | -44.2 m | -45.0 m | -9.6 m | 22.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.16 | -0.89 | -1.10 | -1.08 | -0.23 | 0.45 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 139.9 m | 87.4 m | 65.6 m | 147.5 m | 160.3 m | 138.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Loans | 2.5 m | 4.5 m | 6.3 m | 4.0 m | 1.6 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 498.3 m | 562.6 m | 671.6 m | 782.9 m | 806.9 m | 915.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 1.1 m | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 68.4 m | 127.6 m | 127.5 m | 101.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 158.3 m | 230.4 m | 366.3 m | 479.2 m | 483.6 m | 531.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 339.9 m † | 332.2 m † | 305.3 m † | 303.7 m † | 323.3 m † | 383.9 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 5.8 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
36% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.88 – 26.22 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual incomeunavailable · input data missing
- Justified P/Bunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E8.88 – 11.62 (Mid 10.94)6 companies used · median multiple 24.3x · quartiles 19.7x – 25.8xCI, CNC, ELV, HUM, OSCR, UNH
- Peers: P/B18.16 – 26.22 (Mid 22.40)6 companies used · median multiple 2.4x · quartiles 1.9x – 2.8xCI, CNC, ELV, HUM, MOH, UNH
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 16.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | 3.6x | 14 (vs peers) | 39% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 74.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 39% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation7/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TRUPANION, INC. (TRUP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 11.9%.
The estimated value range is 13.52–18.92 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 16.67 USD, the price of 33.67 USD leaves a potential of -50.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -102.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 16.7%
What contradicts it
- P/B: 3.6x
- P/E (TTM): 74.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROE, Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, ROA, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 366.8 bn | 23.4 | 15.4% | 3.5% | +11.8% | +24% / −26% |
| ELVElevance Health, Inc. | 93.8 bn | 18.5 | 11.6% | 2.5% | +12.5% | +28% / −9% |
| CIThe Cigna Group | 80.7 bn | 13.2 | 15.0% | 2.2% | +11.2% | +10% / +16% |
| HUMHumana Inc | 50.1 bn | 44.5 | 6.2% | 0.8% | +10.1% | +70% / −14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | 37.6 bn | 26.0 | 6.8% | 0.7% | +19.4% | +93% / +3% |
| MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc. | 11.8 bn | — | -1.2% | -0.1% | +11.7% | +53% / −38% |
| ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 71.3 | 13.2% | 0.6% | +46.1% | −58% / +9% |
| TRUPTrupanion, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 74.8 | — | — | +11.9% | −15% / +29% |
| OSCROscar Health, Inc. | — | 25.2 | 34.3% | 3.6% | +27.5% | +96% / +314% |
| CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp. | — | — | -5.1% | -0.7% | +40.3% | +88% / +409% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TRUP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Trupanion provides medical insurance for cats and dogs in the United States, Canada and some countries in Continental Europe, using a vertically integrated model built on pet health data. In the first half of 2026 the company grew revenue, while total insured pets fell slightly as its Pets Best business declined, which makes the trajectory of the subscription segment central to the outlook.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a data-driven pricing model built over more than 25 years, a Territory Partner network in veterinary hospitals and patented software that pays clinics directly at checkout.
- Average monthly retention is high and subscription revenue is growing steadily, giving predictable and recurring income.
- Liquidity was solid at the end of the first half of 2026, and the company has announced a share repurchase program and an extraordinary dividend.
Weaknesses
- The company has accumulated significant net losses since inception and still carries a large accumulated deficit, so profitability remains uncertain.
- The cost of acquiring new pets has risen, and the return on that spending depends on assumptions that could prove inaccurate.
- Total insured pets fell in 2026 year on year because of the Pets Best segment, even though the subscription base kept growing.
Opportunities
- Insurance penetration remains low in North America and Europe, which could allow long-term growth if customer acquisition stays efficient.
- New channels such as employee benefits, retail and direct-to-consumer sales could expand the member base.
- If margins in the core segment improve, the company could deploy capital into acquisitions or new products such as pet nutrition.
Threats
- Regulator approval of prices can delay adjustments and erode margins if veterinary costs rise quickly.
- Industry consolidation and new entrants with comparable data could erode the company's pricing advantage.
- Exposure to exchange rates and the global economy could affect results, especially in Europe and Canada.
Risks
- Historic losses and uncertain profitabilityhigh
The company has large cumulative net losses and may not stay profitable, particularly if acquisition costs keep rising.
- Pricing regulationhigh
State regulators must approve price changes, which can delay increases and affect financial results.
- Reliance on Territory Partnersmedium
Independent contractors working with veterinary hospitals are central to customer acquisition, and losing them could slow growth.
- Pets Best run-offmedium
The gradual reduction of the Pets Best business, ending after 2028, could reduce revenue from the low-margin segment.
- Currency and international exposurelow
Operations in Canada and Europe expose the company to exchange rate swings and risks from international expansion.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If subscription revenue growth continues and margins improve, the company could turn growth into durable profitability.
- Low insurance penetration for pets could leave room for long-term growth in the markets the company serves.
- The share repurchase program and extraordinary dividend show capital allocation becoming a priority, which could support shareholder value.
What would break the thesis
- If the cost of acquiring new pets keeps rising, returns on that spending could fall and growth could become more expensive.
- The decline in total insured pets shows that the Pets Best run-off is not fully offset by subscription growth, at least in the short term.
- Regulator approval of prices could delay the adjustments needed to cover rising veterinary costs.
What to watch
- Trend in subscription pet count and monthly retentionQ3 2026
- Execution of the 100 million USD share repurchase program and the extraordinary dividend2026
- Subscription segment margin and acquisition cost per petQ4 2026
- State approvals of rate changes and their effect on premiums2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Trupanion sells medical insurance for cats and dogs mainly as direct-to-consumer subscription products, with revenue coming chiefly from insurance premiums. It reports two segments: subscription, which the company treats as its core, and other business, which covers policies underwritten for third parties at a much lower margin. The model relies on pricing tailored to each pet, direct payment of veterinary invoices through its patented software and a network of Territory Partners who work with veterinary hospitals.
The company aims to return 71% of premiums collected to members, which it describes as the highest operationally sustainable value proposition in its industry. It invested 85.4 million USD in new pet acquisition in fiscal 2025, a decision it bases on an estimated internal rate of return on each acquired pet. Trupanion is listed on Nasdaq under TRUP and is headquartered in Seattle.
The company reported 1,096,173 subscription pets at December 31, 2025 and monthly average revenue per pet of 80.79 USD for fiscal 2025, both rising from earlier years. In the second quarter of 2026 subscription revenue kept growing while total enrolled pets declined, suggesting that higher revenue per pet is partly offsetting the fall in the overall portfolio.
Segments
Subscription
The subscription segment earns premiums from members insured through the Trupanion, Powered by Trupanion, Furkin, PHI Direct and German and Swiss products. Subscription revenue was 276.7 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, up 14%, and 546.1 million USD in the first six months.
Other business
The other business segment underwrites policies for third parties, chiefly Pets Best, with which the relationship is set to end after the third quarter of 2028, and the US Department of Veterans Affairs program. Its margin is much lower than the core segment, and its contribution is expected to shrink as Pets Best moves to other underwriters.
Market context
North America has about 180.7 million household dogs and cats, with pet insurance penetration below 4% according to estimates the company cites. Veterinary costs are rising faster than inflation, which could make coverage more attractive to pet owners, although most do not yet hold a policy.
Continental Europe has about 165 million household dogs and cats, with penetration of 8.6%, higher than in North America. The company expects long-term growth if penetration moves toward levels seen in the United Kingdom or Sweden, though these are its own estimates rather than assured forecasts.
Trends
- Rising veterinary costsmixed
Veterinary care costs are rising faster than inflation, driven by medical advances and technology, which could raise demand for insurance but also pressure margins if premiums do not keep pace.
- Low insurance penetrationtailwind
Most pet owners do not hold medical insurance and the markets Trupanion serves are described as under-penetrated, which could support long-term growth if lead conversion remains effective.
- Regulated pricingheadwind
Most states require regulator approval for new products and price increases, which can delay adjustments and affect results if costs rise faster than premiums.
- Pets Best run-offmixed
Enrollment through Pets Best is declining and the relationship ends after the third quarter of 2028, shrinking the low-margin segment while freeing capital for the core business, which earns a far better margin.
Competitive position
Trupanion competes mainly with pet owners who self-fund veterinary costs, often on credit cards, and with other pet medical insurance brands. Because most owners have no insurance, the company frames its main challenge as educating pet parents and expanding the overall market rather than switching existing policyholders.
The company groups rival insurers into traditional providers with low price points and narrow coverage, and higher-value providers offering annual plans whose premiums rise with the pet's age. Significant consolidation has left many brands controlled by a small number of companies.
- Traditional low-price pet insurers
Insurers with low price points and narrow coverage that typically exclude congenital and hereditary conditions.
- Annual-plan pet insurers
Providers of annual plans whose premiums increase as the pet ages, identified by the company as the higher-value segment.
- Pets Best Insurance Services
Third-party provider for which Trupanion underwrites policies and which is also moving business to other underwriters.
- Self-funding by pet owners
Direct payment of veterinary costs, usually by card, is the main alternative the company treats as competition.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- GALERIE FOTO: ”Ești suflet și ai trup, nu invers”. Ana Bogdan și mesajul care a devenit viral - Digi SportSurge — Google News · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- ”Ești suflet și ai trup, nu invers”. Ana Bogdan și mesajul care a devenit viral - Digi SportSurge — Google News · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- VIDEO Vine apocalipsa AI? Prof. univ. dr. Marius Leordeanu: „AI-ul nu are voința proprie de a trăi și nici potențialul de a ne distruge din proprie inițiativă” / „Conștiința reală necesită un trup fizic și instinct de supraviețuire” / Există, totuși, un pericol (Frontier Defense)G4Media · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Un trup despre care se crede că este al studentului britanic George Smyth, dispărut în munți în noiembrie, găsit de doi ciobani. „Tortura așteptării s-a terminat”Libertatea.ro · 16 Aug 2026 · RO
- Și-a ținut mama moartă într-un congelator timp de trei ani și i-a încasat pensia de peste 78.000 de lire. Polițiștii au găsit flori și o felicitare lângă trupAdevărul · 03 Aug 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report27 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure
- Proxy statement27 Apr 2026
- Annual report13 Feb 2026
- Current report12 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Trupanion, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Trupanion, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Trupanion, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.