olivLaw · US equity research
Oscar Health, Inc. OSCR
Hospital & Medical Service Plans · SIC 6324 · Vertical: Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324)
Oscar Health is a healthcare technology company that sells individual-market health plans through the ACA and licenses its platform to other players in the system. The company reported about 3.0 million effectuated members as of June 30, 2026, and guidance for total revenue in 2026 is 18.7 to 19.0 billion USD, which makes it relevant to the debate over private coverage access in the US.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) stock was 35.19 USD (+8.58% on the day), with P/E 25.2 on diluted EPS of 1.39 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.04, 52-week range 10.85–35.19 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.9 bn USD (+70.4% YoY), net income of 361.8 m USD, diluted EPS 1.10 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 29.73 – 35.33
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 17.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 31.79 / 23.86
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.13 / 0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.5% | −1.1% | +9.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.9% | −0.5% | +17.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +77.4% | +4.4% | +73.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +144.9% | +12.3% | +132.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +105.1% | +13.5% | +91.5 pp | +28.4% |
| 3 years | +514.1% | +76.4% | +437.7 pp | +3.2% |
| 5 years | +107.0% | +63.7% | +43.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn |
| SG&A | 460.4 m | 465.8 m | 482.8 m | 534.5 m | 521.6 m | 511.0 m | 706.2 m | 691.1 m |
| Operating income | -48.4 m | -147.7 m | 297.1 m | -230.5 m | -129.3 m | -333.7 m | 704.1 m | 388.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.5 m ≈ | 9.2 m | 6.7 m | 7.0 m ≈ | 7.3 m ≈ | 7.9 m | 7.0 m | 6.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 5.8 m | 6.0 m | 6.0 m | 5.8 m | 6.9 m | -1.1 m | 5.4 m | 4.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | -52.3 m | -153.7 m | 288.2 m | -233.5 m | -139.3 m | -352.7 m | 698.8 m | 383.0 m |
| Income tax | 2.1 m | -404.0 k | 12.7 m | -5.0 m | -1.8 m | -247.0 k | 19.8 m | 21.2 m |
| Net income | -54.6 m | -153.5 m | 275.3 m | -228.4 m | -137.5 m | -352.6 m | 679.0 m | 361.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.22 | -0.96 ≈ | 0.92 | -0.89 | -0.53 | -1.25 ≈ | 2.07 | 1.10 |
| Operating cash flow | -500.1 m ≈ | 346.8 m | 878.5 m | 509.1 m ≈ | -964.7 m ≈ | 671.9 m | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 7.6 m ≈ | 6.8 m | 9.0 m | 9.3 m ≈ | 9.0 m ≈ | 9.1 m | 8.8 m | 11.8 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 20.5, median 20.5, max 20.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 488.2 m | 462.8 m | 1.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 9.2 bn | 11.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −5.2% | +297.3% | +115.6% | +47.9% | +56.5% | +27.5% |
| Net income | -261.2 m | -406.8 m | -572.6 m | -606.3 m | -270.7 m | 25.4 m | -443.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −1,842.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -9.06 | -14.16 | -3.20 | -2.85 | -1.22 | 0.10 | -1.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −1,790.0% |
| net % | -53.5% | -87.9% | -31.1% | -15.3% | -4.6% | 0.3% | -3.8% |
| Free cash flow | -191.4 m | 208.7 m | -207.6 m | 351.3 m | -297.7 m | 950.3 m | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 430.1 m USD
- Net debt
- -2.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 980.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 6.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.44x
- Current ratio
- 0.95x
- ROE
- -44.4%
- ROA
- -7.9%
- FCF margin
- 9.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -405.8 m | -570.6 m | -610.1 m | -267.3 m | 33.4 m | -437.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -406.8 m | -572.6 m | -606.3 m | -270.7 m | 25.4 m | -443.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -14.16 | -3.20 | -2.85 | -1.22 | 0.10 | -1.69 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 826.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 142.5 m | 0 | 298.0 m | 298.8 m | 299.6 m | 430.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 892.4 m | 806.1 m | 1.0 bn | 980.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2022verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 29.21 – 80.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual incomeunavailable · input data missing
- Justified P/Bunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E29.21 – 80.75 (Mid 36.29)7 companies used · median multiple 26.0x · quartiles 20.9x – 57.9xALHC, CI, CNC, ELV, HUM, TRUP, UNH
- Peers: P/Bunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 34.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 43.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 6.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 25.2x | 57 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial57/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 27.5%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 34.3%.
The estimated value range is 29.21–80.75 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 36.29 USD, the price of 35.19 USD leaves a potential of 3.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 3.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 48.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 34.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 43.5%
- ROA: 6.3%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/B, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Hospital & Medical Service Plans (SIC 6324) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 366.8 bn | 23.4 | 15.4% | 3.5% | +11.8% | +24% / −26% |
| ELVElevance Health, Inc. | 93.8 bn | 18.5 | 11.6% | 2.5% | +12.5% | +28% / −9% |
| CIThe Cigna Group | 80.7 bn | 13.2 | 15.0% | 2.2% | +11.2% | +10% / +16% |
| HUMHumana Inc | 50.1 bn | 44.5 | 6.2% | 0.8% | +10.1% | +70% / −14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | 37.6 bn | 26.0 | 6.8% | 0.7% | +19.4% | +93% / +3% |
| MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc. | 11.8 bn | — | -1.2% | -0.1% | +11.7% | +53% / −38% |
| ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 71.3 | 13.2% | 0.6% | +46.1% | −58% / +9% |
| TRUPTrupanion, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 74.8 | — | — | +11.9% | −5% / +31% |
| CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp. | — | — | -5.1% | -0.7% | +40.3% | +88% / +409% |
| OSCROscar Health, Inc. | — | 25.2 | 34.3% | 3.6% | +27.5% | +105% / +514% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OSCR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Oscar Health is a healthcare technology company that sells individual-market health plans through the ACA and licenses its platform to other players in the system. The company reported about 3.0 million effectuated members as of June 30, 2026 2, and guidance for total revenue in 2026 is 18.7 to 19.0 billion USD 3, which makes it relevant to the debate over private coverage access in the US.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Regulatory dependencehigh
Plans and revenue depend on state and federal approvals, and rule changes can shift profitability 1.
- Risk adjustment volatilityhigh
Risk adjustment amounts can be revised over several periods, which can affect results 1.
- Membership declinemedium
Expiring credits and new rules could reduce membership and revenue 12.
- Strategic executionmedium
Expansion into new markets and business lines can prove costlier and slower than planned 1.
- Capital requirementslow
Membership growth can require extra capital for insurance subsidiaries, sometimes at high cost 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If ICHRA expands, Oscar could become a preferred carrier for employees choosing individual plans 1.
- Rising margins in the first half of 2026 and the raised outlook show that pricing discipline could sustain profitability 3.
- An integrated technology platform could lower operating costs and build revenue through +Oscar 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the operating earnings outlook and the medical loss ratioQ3 2026
- Membership trend after the 2026 open enrollment and the effect of expired credits2026
- Enrollment rules for 2027 and the outcome of the Columbus II lawsuit2027
- Employer adoption of ICHRA and the membership it brings through that channelnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Oscar builds its business on a proprietary cloud-native technology platform covering members, providers, underwriting, claims management and billing 1. Its main revenue comes from premiums, most of them paid directly by CMS through the advanced premium tax credit program 1. In 2025 it acquired Lucie, IHC Specialty Benefits and Healthinsurance.org to support its ICHRA strategy and a consumer health marketplace 1.
Through +Oscar, the company sells its technology to other participants in the healthcare system, notably the Campaign Builder engagement platform 1. Oscar says it relies on member experience and a selective provider network tailored to each market 1.
Membership is concentrated in Florida, Texas and Georgia 12. The company stopped offering small group plans in December 2024, and ICHRA members are included in its membership count 3.
Segments
Individual market (ACA)
This is the main segment and generates almost all revenue through premiums 1. Its performance depends on membership, pricing and risk adjustment between insurers 13.
Market context
The ACA market grew in recent years on the back of enhanced tax credits, which expired at the end of 2025 1. The company notes that enrollment in the marketplaces fell from the 2025 to the 2026 open enrollment period, and further rule changes could reduce participation 1. Preliminary data suggest the market has contracted 1.
Over the longer term, Oscar argues that ICHRA could move employees from group coverage to the individual market, which it sees as its main opportunity 1. This depends on employer adoption and regulation 1.
Trends
- Expiry of enhanced tax creditsheadwind
Expiry could make coverage less affordable for some consumers, which could reduce membership 12. The company has already reported a drop in participation after the 2026 open enrollment 2.
- Enrollment integrity and new rulesmixed
CMS program integrity measures and the OBBBA add verification steps for tax credits and may limit eligibility for some groups 1. A June 2026 ruling nullified certain provisions, which could restore longer enrollment periods for 2027 2.
- Risk adjustment and market morbiditymixed
Third-party reports in 2025 showed higher market morbidity than expected, which increased amounts payable for risk adjustment 1. Morbidity appears to have stabilized, but the company had lower relative risk scores than anticipated 1.
- Margin improvementtailwind
In the first half of 2026 the medical loss ratio fell to 75.0% 3, and the company raised its operating outlook, which could support profitability if pricing discipline holds 3.
Competitive position
Oscar competes in ACA markets with other insurers offering individual plans, which may cut prices to protect market share 1. The company notes that some competitors could enter or exit marketplaces, changing competitive pressure 1.
Oscar's stated advantage is its integrated technology platform, which it considers a structural barrier that is hard to copy 1. Competitors with greater scale in state markets could however imitate some products 1.
- Other ACA marketplace insurers
Insurers selling individual plans in the same state markets that may change prices or networks.
- Direct enrollment and broker platforms
Direct enrollment platforms competing with Lucie for brokers and consumers.
- Insurers that exited the market
Exits by competitors could push new members toward Oscar, though the same exits may reduce total participation.
- ICHRA employer programs
ICHRA platforms that can steer employees toward individual-market insurers, including Oscar.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Livrările de motorină din România către Ucraina au scăzut. Excepția: Oscar DownstreamProfit.ro · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- De astazi in cinematografe: „Wild Horse Nine”, cu John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell si Steve Buscemi, intr-o comedie neagra despre spionaj si jocuri de putere. Filmarile au avut loc pe Insula Pastelui. - Urban.roSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- What’s the best business credit card for dining purchases?The Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Spanish rail infrastructure chief steps down after Toledo train crashPolitico EU · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Two fatal train disasters in less than a year: I never thought I would see this happen in my native SpainEUobserver · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Karikó Katalin, Nógrádi György, Csurka István – megtaláltuk a korábban már ismert történetek kartonjaitTelex English (HU) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- „Wild Horse Nine”: John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell şi Steve Buscemi, într-o comedie neagră despre spionaj, jocuri de putere şi secretele trecutului/ VIDEO - News.roSurge — Google News · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Premierul Spaniei îi deleagă temporar Ministerul Transporturilor adjunctului său, după cele două accidente feroviare mortaleMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Spain opts for Cabinet changes after transport minister bows outDaily Sabah — Economy (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Spania. Ministrul Transporturilor demisionează după accidentul feroviar soldat cu 69 de morți, unul dintre cele mai grave din Europa din ultimele decenii. De asemenea, o grevă generală este anunțată pe 11 noiembrie, pe fondul crizei locuințelor.Biziday.ro · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Spanish transport minister resigns after train crash killed 69 peopleAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Alegeri în SUA/Democrații câștigă un loc în Senat în Texas pentru prima dată în aproape 40 de ani (proiecții) - AgerpresAgerpres · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- See a tardigrade shed its skin — October’s best science imagesNature · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- La Bola Negra”, cel mai profitabil film spaniol al anului 2026 și a treia producție locală din istorie. Reprezentantul Spaniei în cursa pentru Premiile Oscar a obținut încasări mondiale de 43,4 milioane de dolariMediafax · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ministrul Transporturilor din Spania demisionează după accidentul feroviar cu 69 de morți: „Nu pot rămâne în funcție”Antena 3 CNN · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Spanish transport minister offers resignation after deadly train crashCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Spain’s transport minister resigns after deadly train crashPolitico EU · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ministrul Transporturilor din Spania şi-a anunţat demisia după recentul accident feroviar / „E o chestiune de demnitate politică, de coerenţă şi de empatie faţă de victime”G4Media · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Spanish transport minister announces resignation after deadly train accidentAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Demisie după tragedia feroviară din Spania. „Un ministru al Transporturilor nu poate rămâne în funcție după două accidente produse în mai puțin de un an”HotNews.ro · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report16 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report08 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report02 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Apr 2026
- Current report21 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Oscar Health, Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Oscar Health, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Oscar Health, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.