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olivLaw · US equity research

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411 · Vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

288.38USD+5.46% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an insurance and reinsurance broker that also provides consulting and third-party claims administration; in 2025 about 87% of its revenues came from the brokerage segment and 13% from risk management. In the second quarter of 2026, combined revenues of the brokerage and risk management segments rose 24%, including 6% organic growth.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) stock was 288.38 USD (+5.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 73.9 bn USD, P/E 50.2 on diluted EPS of 5.74 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.94%, beta 0.15, 52-week range 192.00–288.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.0 bn USD (+24.2% YoY), net income of 324.0 m USD (−12.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
73.9 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
50.2
Diluted EPS TTM 5.74 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
1.99%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.94%
DPS 12m 2.70
Beta (2y)
0.15
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
192.00288.38

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
71.9
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
225.13 – 290.51
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 25.4%
SMA 50 / 200
249.10 / 232.41
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
10.20 / 7.38
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+26.9%−1.1%+28.0 pp—
3 months+14.9%−0.5%+15.3 pp—
6 months+46.5%+4.4%+42.1 pp—
Year to date+11.4%+12.3%−0.9 pp—
1 year+14.6%+13.5%+1.0 pp−3.9%
3 years+19.0%+76.4%−57.4 pp+1.3%
5 years+79.9%+63.7%+16.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.5%
12 Jan 2026 → 13 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−44.9%
02 Jun 2025 → 13 May 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.0 bn USD
+24.2% YoY
Net income
324.0 m USD
−12.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.25
−10.7% YoY
net / operating
8.1% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue2.8 bn2.7 bn3.7 bn3.2 bn3.4 bn3.6 bn4.8 bn4.0 bn
Depreciation & amortisation210.0 m ≈213.7 m255.0 m230.0 m ≈275.5 m ≈361.5 m339.0 m358.0 m ≈
Interest expense92.9 m101.6 m158.0 m158.0 m160.8 m161.2 m158.0 m168.0 m
Pre-tax income403.3 m333.4 m873.0 m473.0 m346.9 m180.0 m1.0 bn414.0 m
Income tax89.2 m74.6 m164.0 m105.0 m73.3 m25.7 m220.0 m90.0 m
Net income312.6 m258.6 m704.0 m368.0 m272.7 m151.1 m822.0 m324.0 m
Diluted EPS1.39—2.721.401.04—3.161.25
Operating cash flow934.8 m ≈739.4 m872.0 m-424.0 m ≈729.0 m ≈753.0 m957.0 m10.0 m ≈
Dividends paid131.6 m ≈131.4 m166.0 m167.0 m ≈166.5 m ≈167.5 m180.0 m179.0 m ≈
Share repurchases——00 ≈——310.0 m170.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 23.0, median 27.9, max 32.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue6.9 bn7.2 bn7.0 bn8.2 bn8.6 bn10.1 bn11.6 bn13.9 bn
Revenue YoY+12.6%+3.8%−2.7%+17.2%+4.2%+17.8%+14.7%+20.7%
Net income633.5 m668.8 m818.8 m906.8 m1.1 bn970.0 m1.5 bn1.5 bn
Net income YoY+31.6%+5.6%+22.4%+10.7%+22.9%−12.9%+50.8%+2.1%
Diluted EPS3.403.524.204.375.194.426.505.74
Diluted EPS YoY+28.8%+3.5%+19.3%+4.0%+18.8%−14.8%+47.1%−11.7%
net %9.1%9.3%11.7%11.0%13.0%9.6%12.7%10.7%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.4 bn USD
Financial debt
12.7 bn USD
Net debt
11.3 bn USD
Equity
23.3 bn USD
Total assets
70.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.55x
Current ratio
1.06x
ROE
6.9%
ROA
2.2%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
10.1 bn
2024
11.6 bn
2025
13.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2023verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2023derived

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
697.0 m
2024
843.0 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
297.0 m
2024
381.0 m
2025
639.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
219.0 m
2024
404.0 m
2025
368.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
970.0 m
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.42
2024
6.50
2025
5.74

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.20
2024
2.40
2025
2.60

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
971.0 m
2024
15.0 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
5.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
32.1 bn
2024
44.1 bn
2025
34.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
726.4 m
2024
650.0 m
2025
789.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
11.5 bn
2024
12.3 bn
2025
22.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
4.6 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
10.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
51.6 bn
2024
64.3 bn
2025
70.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
670.0 m
2024
200.0 m
2025
640.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
7.0 bn
2024
12.7 bn
2025
12.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
31.1 bn
2024
29.3 bn
2025
32.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
40.8 bn
2024
44.1 bn
2025
47.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
10.8 bn
2024
20.2 bn
2025
23.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.3 bn
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
-15.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.9 bn
2024
13.1 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
474.0 m
2024
525.0 m
2025
667.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
10.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
47.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
12.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
125 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
73.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
86.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
47.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
47.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
5.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

288.38 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 73.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
73.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
47.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 2307derived 151

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
62.33
USD per share
Mid
87.20
USD per share
High
134.27
USD per share
Price: 288.38 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -69.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -230.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.17 – 222.59 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E90.49 – 222.59 (Mid 135.21)
    11 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 14.8x – 36.3x
    ACT, AON, BRO, CRVL, GSHD, MRSH, RYAN, SLQT, TWFG, WDH, WTW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)34.17 – 45.95 (Mid 39.19)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality10.0%62 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth17.7%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth3.4%23 (on a fixed band)19%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x21 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation47.1x31 (vs peers)24%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%13 (on a fixed band)14%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial21/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial62/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial13/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial31/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO. (AJG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.7%; net margin 10.0%; ROE 6.7%.

The estimated value range is 62.33–134.27 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 87.20 USD, the price of 288.38 USD leaves a potential of -69.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -230.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.7%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 3.4%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service (SIC 6411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
47.1x
vertical median 25.2x
above median (+86.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.2x
P/S
4.7x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+43.4%)
P/B
3.1x
vertical median 4.6x
below median (−32.2%)
ROE
6.7%
vertical median 11.6%
below median (−42.1%)
Net margin
10.0%
vertical median 4.4%
above median (+128.4%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 8.3%
Revenue YoY
20.7%
vertical median 16.2%
above median (+27.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.9x
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−16.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MRSHMarsh & Mclennan Companies, Inc.100.0 bn25.226.7%14.2%+10.3%+15% / +5%
XHGXChange TEC.INC85.9 bn——-204.9%+24.9%+253% / −100%
AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.73.9 bn47.16.7%10.0%+20.7%+15% / +19%
AONAon plc73.1 bn18.943.6%22.2%+9.4%−3% / +5%
WTWWillis Towers Watson PLC31.1 bn20.520.2%15.2%−2.2%+5% / +37%
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.24.5 bn22.19.7%17.6%+22.8%−8% / −1%
EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.15.3 bn—-508.8%-8.7%−6.1%+20% / +83%
AIFUAIFU Inc.10.5 bn—-155.9%-408.8%−67.9%−84% / −100%
ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn10.712.7%53.8%+2.8%+25% / +74%
HGTYHagerty, Inc.6.5 bn108.025.6%4.4%+17.3%+40% / +121%
RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.5.2 bn49.919.4%3.2%+21.3%−18% / +4%
CRVLCorvel Corporation4.4 bn38.930.7%11.7%+7.0%+19% / +26%
WDHWaterdrop Inc.3.6 bn50.511.6%14.2%+49.8%−44% / −16%
ARXAccelerant Holdings3.3 bn—-241.6%-112.1%+51.5%+36% / unavailable
NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.2.7 bn91.6—22.7%+33.7%+22% / unavailable
GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.1.2 bn33.8—8.8%+16.2%−21% / −23%
HUIZHuize Holding Limited1.1 bn—1.0%0.3%+32.2%−31% / −48%
BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.1.1 bn—-10.7%-4.7%+8.3%+13% / +84%
RDZNRoadzen Inc.92.8 m——-46.9%+24.2%−37% / −78%
SLQTSelectQuote, Inc.88.1 m7.323.4%4.6%+6.0%−66% / −61%
EHTHeHealth, Inc20.3 m—5.0%5.4%+4.1%−84% / −91%
EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.2.4 m—-123.4%-54.3%−11.6%−91% / −100%
YBYuanbao Inc.——152.7%29.9%+33.1%−43% / unavailable
ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.——-141.3%-22.4%+53.0%−99% / unavailable
LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.0—-50.8%-16.2%+52.0%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for AJG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
188.45
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
331.64
Total return 16% · Per year 16%
497.46
Total return 74% · Per year 74%
3 years
223.53
Total return -20% · Per year -7%
438.59
Total return 56% · Per year 16%
716.34
Total return 153% · Per year 36%
5 years
265.14
Total return -3% · Per year -1%
580.04
Total return 109% · Per year 16%
1,031.52
Total return 268% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 109.65
  • Net margin± 76.75
  • Annual revenue growth± 57.24
  • Annual dilution± 6.45

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an insurance and reinsurance broker that also provides consulting and third-party claims administration; in 2025 about 87% of its revenues came from the brokerage segment and 13% from risk management 1. In the second quarter of 2026, combined revenues of the brokerage and risk management segments rose 24%, including 6% organic growth 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a global office network and geographic diversification that reduces dependence on a single market.
  • Expertise in specialized niches and data analytics capabilities support client relationships.
  • A highly diversified client base limits exposure to the loss of any single important client.

Weaknesses

  • The repeated acquisition strategy brings integration, cultural and goodwill impairment risks.
  • Personnel costs are high and can pressure margins when interest income declines.
  • The corporate segment posts net losses, and clean energy investments may add further losses.

Opportunities

  • Growing demand for risk analysis, market access and specialist expertise could support higher revenues.
  • Expanding claims administration services to insurance companies could open new revenue sources.
  • Integrating recent acquisitions could bring cost and revenue synergies if executed as planned.

Threats

  • An economic recession could reduce insurance coverage bought by clients and commission revenues.
  • Higher prices from private equity buyers could make acquisitions harder to complete.
  • Regulatory changes and legal risks could create additional costs or reputational damage.

Risks

  • Macroeconomic riskmedium

    A recession, geopolitical instability and shifting interest rates could reduce commission and interest revenues 1.

  • Financial difficulty at insurersmedium

    If insurers or reinsurers face liquidity problems, payments owed to Gallagher could be delayed or not made 1.

  • Acquisition riskhigh

    Integration difficulties and unknown liabilities could affect growth and could lead to goodwill impairment 1.

  • Cybersecurity riskmedium

    An attack on information systems or those of third-party vendors could lead to regulatory scrutiny, legal liability and loss of client trust 1.

  • Regulatory riskmedium

    Legislative changes across several jurisdictions could raise compliance costs or limit activity in some markets 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Solid organic growth and continued demand for analytics and market access could support long-term revenues 3.
  • Geographic and revenue diversification could cushion the effect of weakness in particular regions or segments 1.
  • If recent acquisitions are integrated as planned, synergies could improve margins.

What would break the thesis

  • Lower interest income and higher expenses could pressure margins in coming quarters 3.
  • Reliance on acquisitions could become more costly if attractive targets grow more expensive and harder to identify 1.
  • A softening insurance market could reduce commissions, since they follow premium levels 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in combined organic revenue growthQ3 2026
  • Adjusted margin of the brokerage segment and personnel cost levelsQ3 2026
  • Integration of AssuredPartners and effects on costs and revenues2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

In 2025 the company completed the AssuredPartners and Woodruff Sawyer acquisitions, the latter funded with cash on hand 1. For the first six months of 2026, adjusted diluted earnings per share were 7.31 dollars, compared with 6.04 dollars a year earlier 3. Organic growth in base commissions and fees was steady, while supplemental and contingent revenues moved differently 23.

Market context

Competition comes from global brokers, consultants, insurers that sell directly, and banks or technology firms offering alternative risk products 1. In claims administration the company faces global and regional administrators, insurer-owned claims units and law firms in some jurisdictions 1.

Trends

  • Insurance pricing cyclemixed

    Rate increases in 2025 supported commissions, but a softening market could reduce this effect because commissions follow premium levels 1.

  • Acquisitionsmixed

    The acquisition strategy continues to support growth, but high prices for targets and competition from private equity could make deals harder to complete 1.

  • Organic growthtailwind

    Combined organic revenue growth was 6% in the second quarter of 2026, pointing to solid demand for services 3.

  • Lower interest incomeheadwind

    Lower interest income compared with the second quarter of 2025 pressured the compensation expense ratio and could weigh on margins in the near term 3.

Competitive position

Gallagher competes with a large number of organizations and individuals worldwide, as well as insurers that distribute some products directly 1. Key competitive factors include service quality, expertise, data analytics and cost efficiency for clients 1.

In claims administration the company competes with global and regional administrators, insurer-owned claims units and law firms, where its outcomes for clients and financial strength could be advantages 1.

  • Global insurance brokers

    Global brokers and consultants competing in brokerage and consulting, referred to generically in the sources without being named

  • Independent claims administrators

    Global and regional third-party claims administrators competing in the risk management segment

  • Insurers that sell directly

    Carriers that distribute part of their products directly and can compete with brokers

  • Banks, consultants and technology firms

    Players that can offer alternative risk management products or services and compete with the company's offerings

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.