olivLaw · US equity research
Arrive AI Inc. ARAI
Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings · SIC 7340 · Vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)
Arrive AI Inc. is building a network of smart delivery points, called Arrive Points, for automated package handoffs by drones and robots, targeting the 'last mile' of logistics. The company only began commercial operations in 2025, with revenue of just 113,250 USD in fiscal 2025, which makes financing and dilution central themes for investors.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI) stock was 0.10 USD (+6.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.4 m USD, beta 3.30, 52-week range 0.10–5.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 14.7 k USD (−83.8% YoY), net income of -14.1 m USD, diluted EPS -0.28 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 29.4
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.09 – 0.16
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 61.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.19 / 0.64
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −50.0% | −1.1% | −48.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −56.7% | −0.5% | −56.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −85.4% | +4.4% | −89.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −96.0% | +12.3% | −108.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −97.9% | +13.5% | −111.4 pp | +19.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +36.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | 90.7 k | 7.5 k | 15.1 k | 14.9 k | 14.7 k |
| Research & development | 7.9 k | 211.2 k | 91.3 k | 293.5 k | 179.9 k | 35.9 k | 357.1 k | 346.5 k |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 7.3 k ≈ | 7.3 k | 7.4 k | 9.7 k ≈ | 13.9 k ≈ | 35.8 k | 56.2 k | 65.3 k ≈ |
| Interest expense | 0 | — | 321 | 0 | 165.8 k | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | -823.8 k | -1.3 m | -2.0 m | -3.7 m | -4.4 m | -2.7 m | -6.4 m | -14.1 m |
| Net income | -823.8 k | -1.3 m | -2.0 m | -3.7 m | -4.4 m | -2.7 m | -6.4 m | -14.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.03 | -0.05 ≈ | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.08 ≈ | -0.18 | -0.28 |
| Operating cash flow | -605.5 k ≈ | -329.8 k | -546.7 k | -3.3 m ≈ | -1.2 m ≈ | -3.2 m | -2.9 m | -3.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | — | — | 2.8 k | 45.0 k ≈ | — | — | 220.3 k | 219.3 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 113.3 k |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -4.5 m | -12.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.16 | -0.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | -11,325.7% |
| Free cash flow | -2.3 m | -8.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.5 m USD
- Total assets
- 10.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.34x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -215.2%
- FCF margin
- -7,725.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 113.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Research & development | 760.0 k | 600.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 29.1 k | 66.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -4.5 m | -12.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -4.5 m | -12.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.16 | -0.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 29.0 m | 32.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 129.3 k | 2.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 5.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 617.3 k | 2.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 95.4 k | 514.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 273.6 k | 272.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 987.8 k | 10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.9 m | 184.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 m | 6.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.0 m | 8.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -983.2 k † | 2.5 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -2.3 m | -8.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 38.2 k | 495.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -2.3 m ≈ | -8.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -114.7 k | -362.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.2 m | 10.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.4 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
15% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -52,935.3% | 0 (vs peers) | 43% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -215.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 57% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-08-13.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 113.2 k USD in 2025; net margin -52,935.3%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -52,935.3%
- FCF yield: -215.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APGAPi Group Corporation | 18.7 bn | 54.4 | 10.9% | 4.1% | +12.7% | +11% / +118% |
| ROLRollins, Inc. | 18.3 bn | 35.2 | 36.0% | 13.2% | +11.0% | −38% / −6% |
| FTDRFrontdoor, Inc. | 6.4 bn | 24.6 | 101.9% | 12.8% | +13.6% | +72% / +170% |
| ABMAbm Industries Incorporated | 3.2 bn | 19.7 | 9.2% | 1.8% | +4.6% | +27% / +34% |
| PMECPrimech Holdings Ltd. | 11.6 m | — | -13.0% | -2.6% | +2.5% | −71% / −88% |
| ARAIArrive AI Inc. | 5.4 m | — | — | -52,935.3% | unavailable | −98% / unavailable |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | — | — | 34.5% | 20.4% | +10.3% | +51% / +40% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ARAI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Arrive AI Inc. is building a network of smart delivery points, called Arrive Points, for automated package handoffs by drones and robots, targeting the 'last mile' of logistics. The company only began commercial operations in 2025, with revenue of just 113,250 USD in fiscal 2025, which makes financing and dilution central themes for investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- A patent portfolio and technology licence form an intellectual property base for the smart mailbox and ALM platform 1.
- The company has run pilot deployments with medical and pharmaceutical customers, giving early validation data 12.
- A multi-generation hardware strategy, from AP3 to AP5, aims at universal compatibility with drone and robot systems 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is very small and concentrated in a single customer, making results volatile 1.
- Operating cash flow is negative and the filings disclose substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern 1.
- Dependence on a licence from the chief executive introduces conflict-of-interest and rights-concentration risks 1.
Opportunities
- If the Arrive Point network grows in line with the five-year plan, subscription and marketplace revenue could rise substantially 1.
- AI services built on transactional data could add revenue if successfully deployed on newer hardware generations 1.
- Expansion to hospitals, pharmacies and retail could diversify the customer base and reduce reliance on one partner 12.
Threats
- Heavy dilution through conversions and market sales programmes could weigh on the share price and funding capacity 12.
- Competition from better-capitalised locker makers and drone or robot operators could limit adoption of the company's products 1.
- BVLOS, data-protection and pharmaceutical transport rules could delay or raise the cost of deployment 1.
Risks
- Funding shortfall and going-concern doubthigh
High cash use and uncertain access to financing could force the company to scale back operations, and the filings include a going-concern warning 1.
- Dilution from financing instrumentshigh
Mechanisms converting at prices below market could cause substantial dilution, particularly if the share price falls, and converted amounts through mid-2026 have been significant 12.
- Revenue concentration in one customerhigh
If a single customer continues to dominate revenue, losing that relationship could seriously affect results until the customer base widens 1.
- Regulation and compliancemedium
FAA BVLOS rules, data-privacy laws and HIPAA could raise costs or limit operations in some jurisdictions 1.
- Dependence on the chief executive's licencemedium
Core technology rights come from an agreement with the chief executive, and possible conflicts of interest could affect governance 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Arrive Point network meets its deployment targets, the subscription model could generate more recurring revenue than has been seen so far 1.
- The patent portfolio and pilot partnerships with medical customers could give an early competitive edge 12.
- If rules for autonomous delivery ease, demand for ALM-style infrastructure could grow quickly 1.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue of 113,250 USD in 2025 is modest against cash burn, and any deployment delays could extend reliance on dilutive financing 1.
- Concentration of revenue in one customer and going-concern language point to significant risks for investors 1.
- Competition from much larger companies could limit the ability to win large-scale contracts 1.
What to watch
- Trend in subscription revenue and number of Arrive Points installedQ1 2027
- Launch of AP5 and marketplace functions2027
- Expiry of the Streeterville standstill and resumption of purchase notices31 December 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Arrive AI Inc., incorporated in Delaware in 2020 as Dronedek Corporation, describes itself as an early-stage technology company focused on smart mailboxes for secure exchange of packages, goods and medications between people, through robots and drones 1. According to the 2025 annual report, commercial operations began in 2025 and no revenue was reported for prior years 1. Current revenue comes from subscriptions to Arrive Points and from installation, support and infrastructure agreements 1. The company relies heavily on a patent licence from its chief executive, which raises related-party conflict questions 1.
The ALM platform has three pillars: the Arrive Point network sold as Network-as-a-Service, AI services that monetise transactional data, and a delivery marketplace described as similar to a Google AdSense-style market 1. The company expects subscriptions and marketplace services to be complementary, with the AP5 generation expected to enable advanced marketplace functions 1. Its public five-year plan targets 100,000 Arrive Points, with a revenue mix of about half from network subscriptions and half from marketplace and AI services 1.
Segments
Arrive Point network (Network-as-a-Service)
Arrive Points, smart lockers and mini cross-docks, are offered through monthly and annual subscriptions including installation, support and maintenance 1. Generations AP3, AP4 and AP5 are intended to be compatible with most drone and robotic delivery systems, and AP3 units have generated revenue since 2025 12.
Market context
The target market is automated last-mile delivery, with emphasis on medical, pharmaceutical, retail and e-commerce 1. The company cites projections from research organisations that expect autonomous logistics to transform delivery, though these estimates are not quantified in the documents reviewed 1. Adoption depends on FAA beyond-visual-line-of-sight rules and on acceptance by local authorities 1.
The smart locker and mailbox market is contested by companies adapting to ALM trends, and drone and robot providers are building point solutions for parcel handoff 1. The exact market size is not specified in the documents reviewed 1.
Trends
- Growing adoption of drone and robot deliverytailwind
Wider adoption of autonomous delivery, driven by efficiency and lower costs, could support demand for Arrive Points if regulation allows operations to expand 1.
- BVLOS and data-protection regulatory barriersheadwind
FAA beyond-visual-line-of-sight requirements, along with growing rules on personal data and AI, could slow adoption and raise compliance costs 1.
- Integration with medical and pharmaceutical customersmixed
Work with hospitals and pharmaceutical companies could validate the model, but it brings HIPAA duties and transport rules for temperature-sensitive goods 1.
- Reliance on dilutive financingheadwind
High cash use and financing instruments that convert at discounts to market could dilute existing holders and constrain operations, especially if access to capital narrows 12.
Competitive position
The company recognises two competitor groups: makers of smart lockers and mailboxes adapting to ALM trends, and drone and robot providers developing their own parcel handoff solutions 1. Arrive AI argues that a universal standard and multi-system compatibility could displace proprietary point solutions 1.
Claimed advantages include intellectual property, patents covering AP1 to AP5, and pilot partnerships with a regional hospital and a pharmaceutical delivery company 1. However, the filings note that many competitors have substantially greater resources 1.
- Smart locker and mailbox manufacturers
Category named by the company as adapting to ALM trends and possibly developing similar capabilities 1.
- Drone and delivery robot providers
Companies building point solutions for last-mile parcel handoff that could move directly into the company's segment 1.
- Autonomous delivery operators
Operators using drones or robots that could be customers or competitors, depending on partnership structure 1.
- Logistics firms with proprietary systems
Providers keeping closed systems; the company argues these could be replaced by universal networks, though this is not assured 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Four NATO Warships Arrive in Vlora for Joint Exercises with the Albanian NavyEuronews Albania (AL, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Britain on notice: AI-powered ransomware attacks to arrive by 2028The Register · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Zelenskyy and his team arrive in BerlinUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian delegation to arrive in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11 for trilateral Ukraine talks: KremlinAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Germany's Merz says Zelenskyy will arrive in Berlin on 3 NovemberUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Police arrive at German university pro-Palestine protestAl Jazeera English · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine can buy 500 Patriot missiles, but they may arrive only in years. One estimate says they’d last about three monthsEuromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Evacuees from Russia-controlled Oleshky arrive back in Ukraine amid U.S.-brokered ceasefireThe Hill · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Evacuated Ukrainians from Russian-occupied Oleshky arrive in BelarusBBC — Europe · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Residents of Russian-controlled Ukrainian town arrive in BelarusCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Civilians evacuated from Alyoshki arrive at temporary accommodation center in CrimeaTASS (RU, EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Touchscreens arrive for Apple’s MacBook ProCGTN — World · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Ukrainian, US, Russian representatives arrive at site from which aid will be delivered to OleshkyUkrinform (UA, EN) · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Delegations arrive in Tehran for security talksAl Jazeera English · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Aleppo pine at risk: Climate impacts arrive decades earlier than projectedPhys.org · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Two critical PHP flaws put the web on alert as emergency patches arriveSurge — GDELT DOC · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Dmitriev and Witkoff arrive at Constantine Palace for talksTASS (RU, EN) · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- US special envoy Witkoff to arrive in Russia: reportsCGTN — World · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- ‘We really need help’: RSPCA faces capacity crisis as cats arrive faster than they can be rehomedThe Guardian World · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- 40 days to arrive, 40 days to leave: How Armenian culture honors life's most important momentsPhys.org · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Item 3.03 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Oct 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report08 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Item 2.04 · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arrive AI Inc. · 15 Apr 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Arrive AI Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.