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olivLaw · US equity research

Rollins, Inc. ROL

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings · SIC 7340 · Vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

38.38USD+2.76% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Rollins, Inc. (NYSE: ROL) is an Atlanta-based international services company providing pest and termite control to residential and commercial customers. Revenues were about 3.8 billion USD in fiscal 2025, up 11.0%. In the third quarter of 2026 revenues rose 6.2%, but pressure on residential customer acquisition and lower margins led the company to revise its full-year 2026 outlook.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Rollins, Inc. (ROL) stock was 38.38 USD (+2.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.3 bn USD, P/E 35.2 on diluted EPS of 1.09 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.90%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 29.69–65.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+6.2% YoY), net income of 157.9 m USD (−3.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.33 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
18.3 bn USD
shares as of 12 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
35.2
Diluted EPS TTM 1.09 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.84%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.90%
DPS 12m 0.73
Beta (2y)
0.24
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
29.6965.60

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.5
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
30.67 – 37.44
above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 19.9%
SMA 50 / 200
33.55 / 46.53
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.02 / 0.49
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+29.3%−1.1%+30.4 pp—
3 months+2.2%−0.5%+2.6 pp—
6 months−29.2%+4.4%−33.6 pp—
Year to date−36.1%+12.3%−48.4 pp—
1 year−35.6%+13.5%−49.2 pp+19.3%
3 years+0.7%+76.4%−75.7 pp+39.6%
5 years+7.0%+63.7%−56.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−54.7%
11 Feb 2026 → 05 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−54.7%
11 Feb 2026 → 05 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+1.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.1 bn USD
+6.2% YoY
Net income
157.9 m USD
−3.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.33
−2.9% YoY
net / operating
14.5% / 20.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue832.2 m822.5 m999.5 m1.0 bn912.9 m906.4 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Cost of revenue405.5 m400.1 m461.9 m467.5 m447.6 m445.5 m508.6 m506.8 m
SG&A245.5 m250.5 m307.6 m301.4 m273.7 m282.9 m335.0 m326.8 m
Operating income150.6 m142.6 m198.3 m225.0 m160.1 m145.5 m201.4 m222.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation30.5 m29.2 m31.7 m ≈32.2 m ≈31.6 m32.5 m33.6 m ≈33.3 m ≈
Interest expense5.0 m5.8 m7.4 m7.9 m7.4 m8.9 m9.4 m10.7 m
Pre-tax income145.4 m137.5 m191.2 m217.4 m154.7 m137.1 m189.8 m212.6 m
Income tax39.7 m32.3 m49.8 m53.9 m38.3 m29.3 m45.8 m54.7 m
Net income105.7 m105.2 m141.5 m163.5 m116.4 m107.8 m143.9 m157.9 m
Diluted EPS0.22 ≈0.220.290.340.24 ≈0.220.300.33
Operating cash flow188.2 m146.9 m175.1 m ≈191.3 m ≈164.7 m118.4 m172.5 m ≈241.9 m ≈
Capex4.2 m6.8 m7.1 m ≈8.5 m ≈5.7 m7.1 m6.4 m ≈6.4 m ≈
Dividends paid80.0 m79.9 m79.5 m80.1 m88.5 m87.8 m88.1 m87.2 m
Share repurchases72.0 k14.7 m03.7 m ≈198.3 m22.4 m20.0 m120.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 31 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 16.2, median 44.9, max 56.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.8 bn2.0 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn2.7 bn3.1 bn3.4 bn3.8 bn
Revenue YoY+8.8%+10.6%+7.2%+12.2%+11.2%+14.0%+10.3%+11.0%
Net incomeunavailable203.3 m266.8 m356.6 m368.6 m435.0 m466.4 m526.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+31.2%+33.7%+3.4%+18.0%+7.2%+12.9%
Diluted EPS0.470.410.540.720.750.890.961.09
Diluted EPS YoY−14.5%−12.8%+31.7%+33.3%+4.2%+18.7%+7.9%+13.5%
net %unavailable10.1%12.3%14.7%13.7%14.2%13.8%14.0%
Free cash flow272.2 m292.4 m412.6 m374.6 m435.3 m495.9 m580.1 m650.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
100.0 m USD
Financial debt
609.8 m USD
Net debt
509.8 m USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
3.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.44x
Current ratio
0.60x
ROE
38.9%
ROA
17.7%
FCF margin
17.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.6 bn ≈
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
2.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
915.2 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
583.2 m
2024
657.2 m
2025
726.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
99.8 m
2024
113.2 m
2025
124.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
683.0 m ≈
2024
770.4 m ≈
2025
850.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
19.1 m
2024
27.7 m
2025
28.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
586.3 m
2024
630.2 m
2025
700.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
151.3 m
2024
163.9 m
2025
174.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
435.0 m
2024
466.4 m
2025
526.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.89
2024
0.96
2025
1.09

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
490.1 m
2024
484.3 m
2025
484.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.54
2024
0.62
2025
0.68

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
103.8 m
2024
89.6 m
2025
100.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
178.2 m
2024
196.1 m
2025
202.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
33.4 m
2024
39.5 m
2025
43.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
406.6 m
2024
442.6 m
2025
472.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
126.7 m
2024
124.8 m
2025
126.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
545.7 m
2024
541.6 m
2025
582.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
49.2 m
2024
49.6 m
2025
44.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
0
2025
123.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
395.3 m
2025
486.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
576.7 m
2024
645.2 m
2025
785.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.2 bn †
2024
1.3 bn †
2025
1.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
528.4 m
2024
607.7 m
2025
678.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
32.5 m
2024
27.6 m
2025
28.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
495.9 m ≈
2024
580.1 m ≈
2025
650.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-372.9 m
2024
-176.2 m
2025
-326.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-149.4 m
2024
-440.7 m
2025
-343.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
264.3 m
2024
298.0 m
2025
327.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
315.0 m
2024
11.6 m
2025
216.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
12.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
13.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
52.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
21.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
36.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
28.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
30.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
66.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
52.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
598.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
20.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
697.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
25.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
671.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
127.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
81.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
23 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
8 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
12 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
18 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
18.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
18.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
34.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
35.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
13.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
22.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
26.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
27.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 65 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

38.38 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 18.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
18.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
35.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
13.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
22.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
36.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 12 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2547derived 197

Score by group

  • Valuation13
  • Returns72
  • Quality95
  • Balance sheet77
  • Growth93

Estimated value range

Low
21.75
USD per share
Mid
26.58
USD per share
High
34.21
USD per share
Price: 38.38 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -30.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -44.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.90 – 43.10 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)21.75 – 34.21 (Mid 26.58)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 699.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 29.0%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E24.18 – 43.10 (Mid 26.82)
    3 companies used · median multiple 24.6x · quartiles 22.2x – 39.5x
    ABM, APG, FTDR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)8.90 – 11.97 (Mid 10.21)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 65/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality28.5%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality13.2%83 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality127.7%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.7%98 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth13.3%88 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.7x94 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet20.1x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.6x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation35.2x0 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation22.0x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation3.7%46 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.9%55 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns52.3%97 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet77/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth93/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

ROLLINS, INC. (ROL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.0%; net margin 13.2%; ROE 36.0%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.

The estimated value range is 21.75–34.21 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.58 USD, the price of 38.38 USD leaves a potential of -30.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -44.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 28.5%
  • Net margin: 13.2%
  • FCF conversion: 127.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 13.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7x
  • Interest coverage: 20.1x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 52.3%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 35.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 22.0x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
35.2x
vertical median 24.6x
above median (+43.1%)
EV/EBITDA
22.0x
vertical median —
P/S
4.6x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+118.9%)
P/B
13.2x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+268.6%)
ROE
36.0%
vertical median 10.9%
above median (+231.8%)
Net margin
13.2%
vertical median 3.0%
above median (+344.3%)
EBIT margin
18.3%
vertical median 5.4%
above median (+240.6%)
Revenue YoY
11.0%
vertical median 10.3%
above median (+7.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.7x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.9%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
APGAPi Group Corporation18.7 bn54.410.9%4.1%+12.7%+11% / +118%
ROLRollins, Inc.18.3 bn35.236.0%13.2%+11.0%−36% / +1%
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.6.4 bn24.6101.9%12.8%+13.6%+72% / +170%
ABMAbm Industries Incorporated3.2 bn19.79.2%1.8%+4.6%+27% / +34%
PMECPrimech Holdings Ltd.11.6 m—-13.0%-2.6%+2.5%−71% / −88%
ARAIArrive AI Inc.5.4 m——-52,935.3%unavailable−97% / unavailable
ABNBAirbnb, Inc.——34.5%20.4%+10.3%+51% / +40%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ROL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Bull
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
24.55
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
43.25
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
64.96
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
27.41
Total return -23% · Per year -9%
54.01
Total return 48% · Per year 14%
88.53
Total return 140% · Per year 34%
5 years
30.62
Total return -11% · Per year -2%
67.43
Total return 89% · Per year 14%
120.65
Total return 232% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.50
  • Net margin± 9.45
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.25
  • Annual dilution± 0.79

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Rollins, Inc. (NYSE: ROL) is an Atlanta-based international services company providing pest and termite control to residential and commercial customers. Revenues were about 3.8 billion USD in fiscal 2025, up 11.0% 1. In the third quarter of 2026 revenues rose 6.2%, but pressure on residential customer acquisition and lower margins led the company to revise its full-year 2026 outlook 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Strong brand portfolio, dense operating network and a recurring revenue model that gives visibility into a large part of revenue 1.
  • Proprietary routing and scheduling technology that supports cost efficiency and customer service 1.
  • Long record of quarterly revenue growth, supported by acquisitions and a disciplined capital allocation approach 2.

Weaknesses

  • Residential customer acquisition remained under pressure in the third quarter of 2026, and profitability fell compared with the prior year 2.
  • Operating margins were weaker in the third quarter of 2026, and the company lowered its outlook for the year 2.
  • Seasonality concentrates profitability in certain quarters 1.

Opportunities

  • Ancillary services and deeper relationships with existing customers could expand recurring revenue 1.
  • Acquisitions and international franchising give access to new markets and customers 1.
  • Redirecting marketing toward more efficient channels, including visibility in AI-driven search, could improve customer acquisition 2.

Threats

  • Inflation, interest rates and tariffs could weigh on demand and costs 1.
  • Competition remains intense in a fragmented market with low barriers to entry 1.
  • Extreme weather and natural disasters could disrupt operations and supply chains 1.

Risks

  • Residential customer acquisitionhigh

    If pressure on residential customer acquisition persists, segment growth could remain below expectations and marketing spending could rise without proportional returns 2.

  • Operating marginshigh

    Margins declined in the third quarter of 2026, and if costs do not align with demand, profitability could come under further pressure 2.

  • Inflation and tariffsmedium

    The company says inflation, interest rates and tariffs could affect future performance, and their full effect cannot yet be estimated 12.

  • Investigations and litigationmedium

    The company mentions an FTC inquiry and claims under California's Private Attorneys General Act; management considers that they should not have a material adverse effect, but the outcome remains uncertain 1.

  • Seasonality and weatherlow

    Revenues and profits depend on the spring and summer season and on weather, which could amplify quarterly fluctuations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If residential customer acquisition stabilises and the new marketing strategy proves effective, organic growth could return toward the guided range, supported by recurring revenue and a broad customer base 2.
  • Operating efficiency and proprietary technology could support better margins over the longer term, especially if ongoing modernisation keeps lowering route costs 1.
  • Strong operating cash flow and a capital allocation mix across acquisitions, dividends and buybacks could support value for shareholders 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If pressure on residential acquisition lasts, growth could slow more than expected and the company could need to raise marketing investment 2.
  • Weaker margins in the third quarter suggest cost alignment with demand is not yet complete, and the lowered outlook could signal a longer period of difficulty 2.
  • Intense competition and inflation could limit the company's ability to pass costs on to customers, which could reduce margins over the medium term 1.

What to watch

  • Development of residential customer acquisition and the effect of the new marketing strategyQ4 2026
  • Delivery against the 4% to 6% organic revenue growth outlook for 20262026
  • Trend in operating margin and adjusted EBITDA margin versus the third quarter of 2026Q4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company led by a President and CEO and an Executive Chairman, with revenues historically seasonal and stronger in the second and third quarters 1. Rollins completed 94 acquisitions over the last three years and uses acquisitions as a growth lever alongside international franchising 1. It had 21,946 employees on December 31, 2025 1.

The operating platform relies on proprietary routing and scheduling technology, including the BOSS system, which could support route density and cost efficiency 1. Its strategy rests on four pillars: people first, customer loyalty, growth mindset and operational efficiency 1.

Segments

Residential

Pest control for homes against rodents, insects and wildlife. Residential customer acquisition remained under pressure in the third quarter of 2026, prompting the company to reallocate marketing budget 2.

Commercial

Pest control for workplaces in healthcare, food service and logistics. The company also offers proprietary web reporting to commercial customers, which supports growth in this division 1.

Termite and ancillary

Termite protection plus ancillary services such as exclusion, crawlspace encapsulation and insulation. The company sees ancillary services as a chance to deepen relationships with existing customers 1.

Market context

Rollins describes the pest control market as fragmented, with low barriers to entry and intense competition, where service quality and speed, customer proximity and brand reputation matter most 1. The company says it is a global leader and that demand remained solid as it entered 2026, though residential activity was weaker in the third quarter 12.

Demand is seasonal, tied to weather and pest activity in spring and summer, so quarterly profit follows revenue 1. For 2026 the company guides to 4% to 6% organic revenue growth and 2% to 3% acquisition-related growth 2.

Trends

  • Pressure on residential customer acquisitionheadwind

    In the third quarter of 2026 the company said residential customer acquisition remained under pressure and is reallocating marketing resources toward channels with higher returns 2. If this persists it could limit growth in the residential segment.

  • Discovery through AI-driven searchmixed

    The company links part of its new marketing strategy to visibility in AI and large language model driven discovery. This is a dynamic area and the effect on customer acquisition is not yet clear 2.

  • Inflation, interest rates and tariffsheadwind

    Inflation, changing interest rates, tariffs and trade disputes are cited as factors that could adversely affect future performance, and the company says it cannot yet fully estimate their impact 12.

  • Acquisitions and international expansiontailwind

    Acquisitions and international franchising continue to extend Rollins' footprint; in 2025 the company reported revenue growth in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Singapore 1. If integration goes well, this model could support growth.

Competitive position

Rollins says it maintains its position through scale, a dense operating network, multiple brands and investment in proprietary technology, which allow it to compete effectively against global and regional rivals 1. The market nonetheless remains fragmented with low barriers to entry, keeping competition persistent 1.

The main competitors named by the company are Rentokil, Ecolab and Anticimex, alongside numerous regional and local firms 1. The company describes itself as one of the world's largest pest and termite control companies 1.

  • Rentokil Initial

    Global pest control competitor named by Rollins 1.

  • EcolabECL

    Competitor named by Rollins; broad hygiene and industrial services business 1.

  • Anticimex

    Pest control competitor named by Rollins 1.

  • Regional and local operators

    The company cites numerous regional and local competitors that dominate specific markets 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Rollins, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Rollins, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Rollins, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.