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olivLaw · US equity research

Frontdoor, Inc. FTDR

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings · SIC 7340 · Vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

92.86USD+4.80% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Frontdoor is the largest provider of home warranties in the United States, extending its business into new home builder warranties and non-warranty services. The company raised its 2026 outlook on rising profitability, in a real estate market that is still difficult, with revenue of 2,093 million USD in 2025.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) stock was 92.86 USD (+4.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn USD, P/E 24.6 on diluted EPS of 3.78 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.84, 52-week range 49.10–92.86 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 645.0 m USD (+4.5% YoY), net income of 125.0 m USD (+12.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.76 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.4 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.6
Diluted EPS TTM 3.78 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.07%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.84
Volatility (1y) 47%
52-week range
49.1092.86

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
75.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
73.98 – 91.89
above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 21.6%
SMA 50 / 200
80.37 / 69.85
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.06 / 2.05
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+19.6%−1.1%+20.7 pp—
3 months+21.6%−0.5%+22.0 pp—
6 months+40.4%+4.4%+36.0 pp—
Year to date+61.0%+12.3%+48.6 pp—
1 year+41.3%+13.5%+27.7 pp−13.1%
3 years+175.3%+76.4%+98.9 pp+33.5%
5 years+156.1%+63.7%+92.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−24.8%
03 Mar 2026 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−49.2%
16 Nov 2021 → 23 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+20.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
645.0 m USD
+4.5% YoY
Net income
125.0 m USD
+12.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.76
+18.9% YoY
net / operating
19.4% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue540.0 m382.0 m426.0 m617.0 m618.0 m433.0 m451.0 m645.0 m
Cost of revenue235.0 m197.0 m191.0 m261.0 m264.0 m220.0 m203.0 m267.0 m
Gross profit306.0 m185.0 m235.0 m356.0 m353.0 m213.0 m248.0 m378.0 m
SG&A154.0 m156.0 m151.0 m172.0 m174.0 m171.0 m162.0 m176.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation10.0 m19.0 m23.0 m21.0 m22.0 m23.0 m20.0 m20.0 m
Interest expense10.0 m11.0 m19.0 m20.0 m20.0 m20.0 m19.0 m19.0 m
Pre-tax income134.0 m6.0 m48.0 m146.0 m142.0 m2.0 m51.0 m167.0 m
Income tax34.0 m-3.0 m11.0 m36.0 m37.0 m1.0 m10.0 m41.0 m
Net income100.0 m9.0 m37.0 m111.0 m106.0 m2.0 m41.0 m125.0 m
Diluted EPS1.300.12 ≈0.491.481.420.03 ≈0.571.76
Operating cash flow25.0 m ≈58.0 m124.0 m127.0 m ≈64.0 m ≈101.0 m119.0 m126.0 m ≈
Capex9.0 m ≈8.0 m7.0 m7.0 m ≈6.0 m ≈6.0 m6.0 m6.0 m ≈
Share repurchases62.0 m ≈41.0 m71.0 m64.0 m ≈60.0 m ≈88.0 m61.0 m91.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 68 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 12.5, median 20.5, max 44.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.3 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn1.7 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn2.1 bn
Revenue YoY+8.7%+8.5%+8.0%+8.7%+3.7%+7.1%+3.5%+13.6%
Net income125.0 m153.0 m112.0 m128.0 m71.0 m171.0 m235.0 m255.0 m
Net income YoY−21.9%+22.4%−26.8%+14.3%−44.5%+140.8%+37.4%+8.5%
Diluted EPS1.471.801.311.500.872.123.013.42
Diluted EPS YoY−22.6%+22.4%−27.2%+14.5%−42.0%+143.7%+42.0%+13.6%
net %9.9%11.2%7.6%8.0%4.3%9.6%12.8%12.2%
Free cash flow162.0 m178.0 m175.0 m154.0 m102.0 m170.0 m231.0 m390.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
566.0 m USD
Financial debt
1.2 bn USD
Net debt
636.0 m USD
Equity
242.0 m USD
Total assets
2.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
4.97x
Current ratio
1.55x
ROE
106.0%
ROA
12.0%
FCF margin
18.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
895.0 m
2024
852.0 m
2025
936.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
885.0 m
2024
991.0 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
581.0 m
2024
612.0 m
2025
669.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
37.0 m
2024
39.0 m
2025
89.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
40.0 m
2024
40.0 m
2025
79.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
229.0 m
2024
309.0 m
2025
338.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
57.0 m
2024
74.0 m
2025
84.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
171.0 m
2024
235.0 m
2025
255.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.12
2024
3.01
2025
3.42

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
80.9 m
2024
78.0 m
2025
74.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
325.0 m
2024
421.0 m
2025
566.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
6.0 m
2024
10.0 m
2025
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
363.0 m
2024
488.0 m
2025
624.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
60.0 m
2024
73.0 m
2025
57.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
503.0 m
2024
967.0 m
2025
959.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
143.0 m
2024
448.0 m
2025
398.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.1 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
76.0 m
2024
71.0 m
2025
89.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
17.0 m
2024
29.0 m
2025
29.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
593.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
331.0 m
2024
369.0 m
2025
402.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
136.0 m †
2024
239.0 m †
2025
242.0 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
202.0 m
2024
270.0 m
2025
416.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
32.0 m
2024
39.0 m
2025
26.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
170.0 m ≈
2024
231.0 m ≈
2025
390.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-32.0 m
2024
-622.0 m
2025
31.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-137.0 m
2024
447.0 m
2025
-302.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
121.0 m
2024
161.0 m
2025
283.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
53.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
57.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
68.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
55.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
18.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
101.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
562.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
4.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
410.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
24.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
386.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
140.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
7.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
23.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
22.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
3.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

92.86 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
22.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
101.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1318derived 123

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
98.14
USD per share
Mid
124.27
USD per share
High
161.54
USD per share
Price: 92.86 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 33.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 25.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 92.58 – 169.19 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)92.58 – 153.89 (Mid 115.68)
    WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 444.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -0.9%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E103.71 – 169.19 (Mid 132.86)
    3 companies used · median multiple 35.2x · quartiles 27.5x – 44.8x
    ABM, APG, ROL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality12.8%67 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Quality140.9%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.0%67 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth57.8%100 (on a fixed band)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x66 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation24.6x25 (on a fixed band)18%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation6.0%75 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.7%67 (on a fixed band)11%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial66/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth83/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial67/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation47/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.6%; net margin 12.8%; ROE 101.9%.

The estimated value range is 98.14–161.54 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 124.27 USD, the price of 92.86 USD leaves a potential of 33.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 140.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 57.8%
  • FCF yield: 6.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 24.6x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings (SIC 7340) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
24.6x
vertical median 35.2x
below median (−30.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
3.0x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+41.7%)
P/B
22.5x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+529.2%)
ROE
101.9%
vertical median 10.9%
above median (+838.7%)
Net margin
12.8%
vertical median 3.0%
above median (+329.7%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 7.2%
Revenue YoY
13.6%
vertical median 10.3%
above median (+32.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
APGAPi Group Corporation18.7 bn54.410.9%4.1%+12.7%+11% / +118%
ROLRollins, Inc.18.3 bn35.236.0%13.2%+11.0%−38% / −6%
FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.6.4 bn24.6101.9%12.8%+13.6%+41% / +175%
ABMAbm Industries Incorporated3.2 bn19.79.2%1.8%+4.6%+27% / +34%
PMECPrimech Holdings Ltd.11.6 m—-13.0%-2.6%+2.5%−71% / −88%
ARAIArrive AI Inc.5.4 m——-52,935.3%unavailable−97% / unavailable
ABNBAirbnb, Inc.——34.5%20.4%+10.3%+51% / +40%

1- and 3-year price returns: for FTDR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
59.82
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
105.58
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
158.80
Total return 71% · Per year 71%
3 years
62.20
Total return -33% · Per year -13%
123.13
Total return 33% · Per year 10%
202.73
Total return 118% · Per year 30%
5 years
64.67
Total return -30% · Per year -7%
143.58
Total return 55% · Per year 9%
258.82
Total return 179% · Per year 23%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 30.78
  • Net margin± 21.55
  • Annual revenue growth± 17.11
  • Annual dilution± 1.81

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Frontdoor is the largest provider of home warranties in the United States, extending its business into new home builder warranties and non-warranty services. The company raised its 2026 outlook on rising profitability, in a real estate market that is still difficult, with revenue of 2,093 million USD in 2025.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company is a recognized leader in home warranties, with a nationwide contractor network and a high share of recurring revenue from renewals 1.
  • A capital-light business model produces strong Adjusted EBITDA margins and allows substantial share repurchases 13.
  • Automatic monthly payment by most customers supports revenue predictability 1.

Weaknesses

  • Activity depends heavily on housing transaction volume, which is sensitive to interest rates and inventory levels 12.
  • Marketing costs tend to rise over time, and promotions can reduce realized prices in the direct-to-consumer channel 13.
  • The company relies on third parties for some non-warranty services, including the Moen partnership, which creates dependence risk 1.

Opportunities

  • Non-warranty services and HVAC upgrade programs could open additional revenue from existing customers 13.
  • The new home builder warranty niche could grow through acquisitions and expanded partnerships 1.
  • Low penetration of warranties in the home services market could support long-term growth if housing transactions recover 12.

Threats

  • Tariffs and import restrictions on parts and appliances could raise costs and reduce margins 12.
  • Changes in search engines and digital marketing channels could raise the cost of acquiring customers 1.
  • A recession or lower consumer confidence could reduce demand for warranties and non-warranty services 1.

Risks

  • Acquisition and marketing costsmedium

    Higher marketing spend or promotions could weigh on profitability if campaign efficiency declines 1.

  • Inflation and tariffsmedium

    Costs of parts, equipment and labor are affected by inflation and tariffs, which could reduce margins 12.

  • Reliance on external partnersmedium

    Non-warranty services depend on partners such as Moen and on insurers supporting the programs, which the company does not control 1.

  • Acquisition integrationlow

    Integrating 2-10 HBW and achieving the expected benefits could take longer or cost more than planned 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If renewals stay stable and dynamic pricing keeps supporting revenue, the raised 2026 outlook could be sustained, as second-quarter results suggest 3.
  • High profitability and free cash flow could allow share repurchases at a pace that supports per-share growth, as seen in early 2026 3.
  • Expansion into non-warranty services and builder warranties could open new revenue streams if integration proceeds as planned 13.

What would break the thesis

  • If interest rates stay high and resale transactions do not recover, the first-year acquisition channel could remain weak 12.
  • Tariffs and inflation could raise service contract costs and compress the margins the company recently reported 12.
  • Reliance on digital marketing channels and external partners could make customer acquisition costs rise faster than revenue 1.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA outlooknext 10-K
  • Trend in active home warranties and renewal ratesQ3 2026
  • Effect of tariffs on parts costs and service contract costs2027
  • Progress of non-warranty services and the Moen partnershipQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Frontdoor, Inc. operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark and 2-10 HBW brands and offers annual warranties covering repair or replacement of major components of home systems and appliances, from electrical and plumbing to HVAC systems and appliances 1. The company handles about 3.8 million service requests a year through a network of about 17,000 independent contractor firms 1. As of December 31, 2025 it had about 2.1 million active home warranties 1, and 76 percent of revenue in 2025 came from renewals of existing customers 1.

The company expanded its portfolio through the acquisition of 2-10 HBW in December 2024, a provider of new home builder warranties, for aggregate cash consideration of 585 million USD before adjustments 1. Besides warranties, Frontdoor offers non-warranty services such as the New HVAC upgrade program and installation of Moen smart water shut-off devices, marketed to existing customers 1.

In the first half of 2026 revenue was 1,096 million USD, and the company reported about 2.1 million active home warranties as of June 30, 2026 2. It raised its 2026 outlook after second-quarter results 3.

Segments

Home warranties

Annual home warranties are the core of the business, with revenue largely from renewals and acquisition through real estate agents and direct-to-consumer sales 1. The company said dynamic pricing supported renewal revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Builder warranties

The 2-10 HBW division provides warranties for new home builders, with coverage of up to ten years for structural risks and builder-backed or insurance-backed options 1. Contracts are usually multi-year with a large number of builder partners 1.

Non-warranty services

Non-warranty services include the New HVAC upgrade program, Moen device installation and home maintenance, and this segment grew 19 percent in the second quarter of 2026 3. Its development depends on external partnerships and the contractor network 1.

Market context

Frontdoor operates in a US home services industry estimated at over 500 billion USD a year, and the home warranty category is estimated at over 4 billion USD annually 1. The company sees low penetration of this market and says demand for professional repair services could grow as home systems become more complex 1.

Activity depends on home resale transactions, which remained under pressure from high interest rates and low inventory, though the market showed signs of improvement in 2026 2. Tariffs on replacement parts could raise costs for the company 2.

Trends

  • Interest rates and the housing marketmixed

    High interest rates and low home inventory have reduced resale transactions, and warranties are often bought alongside home sales 12. If the market normalizes, first-year real estate acquisitions could recover 2.

  • Tariffs and costsheadwind

    Tariffs on steel, aluminum and imported components can raise the cost of parts and appliances covered by warranties, which could compress margins 12.

  • Dynamic pricingtailwind

    The dynamic pricing model adjusts prices using proprietary data and the contractor network, and in the second quarter of 2026 it contributed roughly three percent of revenue growth 13.

  • Search and digital marketingmixed

    Changes in search engine algorithms and the rise of generative AI search platforms could change the cost of acquiring customers online 1.

Competitive position

Frontdoor competes in a home warranty category that is highly competitive, with many local and regional providers but few offering nationwide coverage 1. In builder warranties it faces other specialist providers and builders that self-insure 1.

The main competitive factors are quality and speed of service, contract offerings, brand and reputation, pricing and promotions, and the contractor network 1. The company believes its nationwide network and large contracted customer base differentiate it from other home services platforms 1.

  • Regional home warranty providers

    The sources describe many local and regional providers without naming a single listed competitor 1.

  • Specialist new home builder warranty providers

    Competition in builder warranties comes from other specialist providers 1.

  • Self-insuring home builders

    Some builders choose to carry structural risk themselves instead of buying an external warranty 1.

  • Home services lead and platform companies

    Platforms that sell leads or non-warranty services to contractors compete for the same customers and attention 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Frontdoor, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Frontdoor, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Frontdoor, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.