olivLaw · US equity research
American Express Company AXP
Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)
American Express is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand that issues cards, acquires merchants and runs its own payments network. Total revenues net of interest expense reached 72.2 bn USD in fiscal 2025, and the company reported diluted EPS of 5.42 USD for the third quarter of 2026, which makes it a useful reference for premium consumer spending.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, American Express Company (AXP) stock was 325.50 USD (−0.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 218.3 bn USD, P/E 18.3 on diluted EPS of 17.80 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.13%, beta 1.24, 52-week range 292.27–384.89 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.2 bn USD (+7.8% YoY), net income of 3.7 bn USD (+27.9% YoY), diluted EPS 5.42 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 302.47 – 329.05
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 8.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 316.80 / 325.73
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.55 / 0.97
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.5% | −2.0% | +9.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.1% | −2.2% | −4.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +3.0% | +4.3% | −1.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.0% | +10.6% | −22.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −10.0% | +10.5% | −20.5 pp | −47.5% |
| 3 years | +113.1% | +73.7% | +39.4 pp | −58.0% |
| 5 years | +88.7% | +61.7% | +26.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.0 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.9 bn | 10.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.2 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 428.0 m | 433.0 m | 427.0 m ≈ | 455.0 m ≈ | 462.0 m | 468.0 m | 488.0 m ≈ | 494.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn |
| Income tax | 586.0 m | 746.0 m | 665.0 m | 923.0 m | 628.0 m | 807.0 m | 961.0 m | 819.0 m |
| Net income | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 3.08 ≈ | 3.64 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 3.57 ≈ | 4.28 | 4.53 | 5.42 |
| Operating cash flow | 5.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.4 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 495.0 m | 430.0 m | 619.0 m ≈ | 654.0 m ≈ | 722.0 m | 1.1 bn | 898.0 m ≈ | 947.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 510.0 m | 509.0 m | 593.0 m ≈ | 586.0 m ≈ | 583.0 m | 583.0 m | 665.0 m ≈ | 668.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 899.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 10.7, median 17.3, max 34.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.6 bn | 28.2 bn | 22.0 bn | 27.7 bn | 34.2 bn | 37.2 bn | 38.8 bn | 41.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.4% | +5.8% | −22.0% | +26.1% | +23.5% | +8.8% | +4.3% | +6.4% |
| Net income | 6.9 bn | 6.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | +151.9% | −2.3% | −53.6% | +157.1% | −6.8% | +11.4% | +21.0% | +7.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 7.99 | 3.77 | 10.02 | 9.85 | 11.21 | 14.01 | 15.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −52.8% | +165.8% | −1.7% | +13.8% | +25.0% | +9.8% |
| net % | 26.0% | 24.0% | 14.3% | 29.1% | 22.0% | 22.5% | 26.1% | 26.2% |
| Free cash flow | 7.6 bn | 12.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 13.1 bn | 19.2 bn | 17.0 bn | 12.1 bn | 16.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 47.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 57.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 10.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 33.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 300.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.73x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 34.0%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- FCF margin
- 38.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.0 bn | 27.7 bn | 34.2 bn | 37.2 bn | 38.8 bn | 41.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 2.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 6.8 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.3 bn | 10.7 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.5 bn | 12.9 bn | 13.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.4 bn | 10.1 bn | 10.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.77 | 10.02 | 9.85 | 11.21 | 14.01 | 15.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 806.0 m | 790.0 m | 752.0 m | 736.0 m | 713.0 m | 696.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.72 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 33.0 bn | 21.5 bn | 33.4 bn | 46.6 bn | 40.6 bn | 47.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 265.0 m | 201.0 m | 146.0 m | 98.0 m | 123.0 m | 90.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 191.0 bn | 189.0 bn | 228.4 bn | 261.1 bn | 271.5 bn | 300.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 43.0 bn | 38.7 bn | 42.6 bn | 47.9 bn | 49.7 bn | 56.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 168.4 bn | 166.4 bn | 203.6 bn | 233.1 bn | 241.2 bn | 266.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 23.0 bn † | 22.2 bn † | 24.7 bn † | 28.1 bn † | 30.3 bn † | 33.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.6 bn | 14.6 bn | 21.1 bn | 18.6 bn | 14.1 bn | 18.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 4.1 bn ≈ | 13.1 bn ≈ | 19.2 bn ≈ | 17.0 bn ≈ | 12.1 bn ≈ | 16.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 11.6 bn | -10.5 bn | -33.7 bn | -24.4 bn | -24.4 bn | -22.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -9.1 bn | -14.9 bn | 24.5 bn | 18.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 218.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 124.85 – 528.99 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E124.85 – 528.99 (Mid 412.91)9 companies used · median multiple 23.2x · quartiles 7.0x – 29.7xATCH, JFU, NU, PGY, PURR, RHLD, SNFCA, SOFI, UPST
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate43.10 – 57.97 (Mid 49.44)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 27.9% | 86 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 113.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 16.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.3x | 64 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.4% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 18.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 41.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 27.9%; ROE 35.9%.
The estimated value range is 124.85–528.99 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 412.91 USD, the price of 325.50 USD leaves a potential of 26.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 27.9%
- FCF conversion: 113.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 16.0%
- FCF yield: 6.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 18.0%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXPAmerican Express Co | 218.3 bn | 18.3 | 35.9% | 27.9% | +6.4% | −10% / +113% |
| ARBKArgo Blockchain PLC | 45.2 bn | — | — | -117.2% | −7.0% | −97% / −99% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | 38.5 bn | — | -4.7% | -12.5% | +9.4% | −47% / +17% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | 21.7 bn | 35.0 | 7.1% | 104.3% | +23.1% | −44% / +130% |
| MARAMara Holdings, Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -107.2% | -430.2% | +38.2% | −42% / −43% |
| UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 bn | 39.9 | 8.0% | 4.9% | +64.0% | −48% / −13% |
| PURRHyperliquid Strategies Inc | 1.9 bn | 3.0 | 32.6% | 3,229.8% | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| CLSKCleanSpark, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -68.6% | -130.2% | +102.2% | −55% / +9% |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group | 1.5 bn | — | -196.7% | -171.3% | −5.1% | −51% / +45% |
| RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 24.1 | — | 4.2% | +9.9% | −26% / unavailable |
| CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc. | 741.4 m | — | -12.3% | -182.5% | +277.9% | −30% / +622% |
| GDOTGreen Dot Corp | 727.1 m | — | -2.8% | -1.1% | +20.7% | +2% / +59% |
| TRONTron Inc. | 664.1 m | 96.8 | 3.8% | 135.6% | +10.0% | −24% / −48% |
| JFU9F Inc. | 536.7 m | 23.2 | 4.7% | 125.2% | +12.2% | −52% / −43% |
| BTBTBit Digital, Inc. | 300.9 m | — | -56.7% | -237.2% | +5.1% | −65% / −68% |
| CANGCango Inc. | 272.7 m | — | -130.8% | -90.4% | +524.3% | −92% / −76% |
| BGINBgin Blockchain Limited | 203.6 m | — | -134.0% | -262.6% | −77.7% | −38% / unavailable |
| CNTNCanton Strategic Holdings, Inc. | 172.1 m | — | -43.1% | — | unavailable | −17% / −83% |
| USBCUsbc, Inc. | 166.5 m | — | -414.1% | — | −100.0% | −47% / −97% |
| SNFCASecurity National Financial Corporation | 166.1 m | 6.5 | 9.0% | 11.1% | +3.0% | +15% / +37% |
| TONXTon Strategy Company | 159.7 m | — | -75.5% | -532.8% | +1,327.8% | −15% / −93% |
| BMHLBluemount Holdings Limited | 79.0 m | 61,098.2 | 26.2% | 18.8% | unavailable | −8% / unavailable |
| UPXIUpexi, Inc. | 62.9 m | — | -1,356.3% | -984.3% | +58.1% | −73% / −95% |
| SGRXSangrix Inc. | 40.8 m | — | -300.3% | -36,190.3% | −98.6% | −99% / −100% |
| AVXAvax One Technology Ltd. | 34.9 m | — | -189.6% | -1,533.9% | +8,709.3% | −80% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AXP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 201.49 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 355.88 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 535.61 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 203.38 Total return -35% · Per year -13% | 403.45 Total return 28% · Per year 9% | 665.56 Total return 109% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 205.29 Total return -32% · Per year -7% | 457.38 Total return 48% · Per year 8% | 827.05 Total return 163% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 100.86
- Net margin± 70.60
- Annual revenue growth± 56.88
- Annual dilution± 5.93
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
American Express is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand that issues cards, acquires merchants and runs its own payments network. Total revenues net of interest expense reached 72.2 bn USD in fiscal 2025 1, and the company reported diluted EPS of 5.42 USD for the third quarter of 2026 3, which makes it a useful reference for premium consumer spending.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a premium customer base with high spending and low credit risk, supported by conservative loss rates and a high return on equity 12.
- The integrated model, combining card issuing, merchant acceptance and its own network, gives data from both ends of a transaction and supports a differentiated experience 1.
- The brand is considered among the most valuable in the world, and the company has received recognition for customer service 13.
Weaknesses
- The company is smaller than some competitors by purchase volume in many countries, which can limit merchant acceptance 1.
- Card Member rewards and service costs have in some periods grown faster than revenues, which can pressure margins 1.
- Dependence on a major strategic partner, such as an airline, concentrates both revenue and risk in one relationship 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion into business segments, B2B payments and expense management solutions could open new revenue sources 13.
- Growing acceptance outside the United States, including in large Asian markets, could support transaction volume 3.
- Integrating artificial intelligence and agentic commerce could strengthen the company's position if applied effectively 13.
Threats
- Regulations capping credit card interest rates could reduce interest income 1.
- Competing payment mechanisms, including real-time transfers and digital currencies, could reduce the share of spending on the company's cards 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade wars could reduce travel spending and cross-border business 1.
Risks
- Sensitivity to the broader economyhigh
Revenues depend on consumer and business activity, and an economic slowdown or persistent inflation could reduce card spending and demand for products 1.
- Competition and pressure on feeshigh
Larger competitors or those with different business models may obtain better terms from merchants and attract customers, which could reduce the company's revenues 1.
- Regulation and legislative frameworkmedium
Regulatory changes, including interest rate caps and new rules for stablecoins, could alter the revenue structure and compliance costs 1.
- Credit riskmedium
A deterioration in economic conditions could raise delinquencies and loss rates, affecting provisions for credit losses 12.
- Dependence on strategic partnersmedium
The relationship with a major airline partner represents a significant share of the card portfolio, and a change in terms or an end to the agreement could affect revenues 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for premium cards remains robust, the company could keep growing revenues, as the reported growth in the first nine months of 2026 suggests 2.
- Rising merchant acceptance outside the United States could expand processed volume and fee revenue 3.
- If the Membership Model and partnerships keep attracting high-spending customers, the company could sustain a high return on equity 12.
What would break the thesis
- If digital payments and alternative financing expand, the company's share of card spending could decline 1.
- Regulatory pressure on interest rates could reduce lending revenue, an important part of the business model 1.
- If rewards and customer service costs grow faster than revenues, margins could be compressed 1.
What to watch
- Trend of billed business and revenues against the revised EPS guidanceQ4 2026
- Net write-off rate and the trend of provisions for credit lossesQ4 2026
- Effect of interest rate caps on credit cards and stablecoin legislation2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company operates three interconnected businesses: issuing credit and charge cards to consumers, small businesses and corporations, acquiring merchants, and running its own card network for processing and settlement. Worldwide billed business was 1670 bn USD in 2025 1, and 86.6 million proprietary cards were in force at December 31, 2025 1. The model depends on revenues from Card Member spending, interest and annual fees, supported by a benefits program called the Membership Model.
The company holds direct relationships with both Card Members and merchants, which gives it data from both ends of a transaction 1. This is used to reduce fraud and assess credit risk. Partnerships, such as the one with Delta Air Lines, are central to attracting high-spending customers.
From 2026 the company presents card balances combined as Card balances, reflecting the expansion of lending features on its charge card portfolio 2. The change does not alter how balances or credit loss reserves are recognised or measured 2.
Segments
Reportable segments
The company reports four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services and Global Merchant and Network Services 1. The first three focus on card issuing for U.S. consumers, small and mid-sized businesses and international markets, while the last manages merchant relationships and the payments network 1.
Market context
The premium card payments market is concentrated, and the company competes directly with Visa and Mastercard, which the sources describe as larger than it in most countries by purchase volume 1. Growth depends on spending by consumers and businesses, which made up about 41 percent of billed business in 2025 1.
Trends
- Growing card spendingtailwind
Card spending has grown steadily, and the company reported higher billed business in both 2025 and the first nine months of 2026 12. This supports discount revenue, the largest revenue line 1.
- Competition from digital paymentsheadwind
Digital payment platforms, mobile wallets and agentic commerce could reduce spending on the company's own cards, and the company warns these mechanisms could affect fee and interest revenue 1.
- Interest rate and stablecoin regulationmixed
Proposals to cap credit card interest rates and new rules on stablecoins could change the competitive structure and interest income 1.
- Artificial intelligence in paymentsmixed
Integrating artificial intelligence into commerce may open new product opportunities, but competitors that use it more effectively could gain an advantage 13.
Competitive position
The company competes with payment networks, issuers and acquirers, as well as traditional paper-based and electronic payment methods 1. The sources show that Visa and Mastercard are larger than the company by purchase volume in most countries, and some competitors have much greater scale and resources 1.
Competition is intensifying through mergers, partnerships and government initiatives, and companies that control access to digital wallets can demand fees or pricing concessions 1. The company notes it must keep differentiating its offer to sustain its premium advantage 1.
- VisaV
Payments network which, according to the source, is larger than the company by purchase volume in most countries.
- MastercardMA
Payments network of comparable scale whose dominant position can benefit issuers and acquirers operating on its network.
- Digital wallet and payment platform providers
Companies that control access to point-of-sale payments and can charge fees or require concessions for participation.
- Point-of-sale installment and financing providers
Companies offering alternative credit such as buy now, pay later products that could reduce the company's revolving balances.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- What’s the best business credit card for dining purchases?The Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Clear expands e-gates to 53 airports, plans nearly full rollout by end of yearThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Citi / AAdvantage Business World Elite Mastercard review: Best for affordable American Airlines perksThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Is the Venture X Business worth the $395 annual fee?The Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Last-minute strategies for earning Delta Medallion elite statusThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ex-Amex CEO shares when business leaders need to speak up about politics: 'You should care about what happens in our society'CNBC — Top News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- 10 ways to use points and miles for a fabulous trip to LondonThe Points Guy · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- The 4 Amex cards I’d use to earn Membership Rewards points fasterThe Points Guy · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Is airline elite status still worth it?The Points Guy · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- United went big on credit cards in 2026. More changes are coming, MileagePlus boss saysThe Points Guy · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Chase credit cards: Best time to apply based on offer historyThe Points Guy · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Hertz President’s Circle elite status is included with several top travel cards. I put it to the test to see if it delivers real valueThe Points Guy · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- How to maximize cash back with your credit cardThe Points Guy · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Best time to apply for United Chase cards based on offer historyThe Points Guy · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Which fast-food loyalty program is best: McDonald's, Burger King, Chick-fil-A or Taco Bell?The Points Guy · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Last chance: Earn 2 round-trip Delta Comfort flights and 50,000 miles with the Delta ReserveThe Points Guy · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Everything you need to know about United Polaris business classThe Points Guy · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Amex and Hilton launch first Hilton Honors credit card in CanadaThe Points Guy · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Exclusive: American Express adds high-yield savings account deposits as new Reward Dollars redemption methodThe Points Guy · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- 8 types of credit cards and what each is best forThe Points Guy · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Oct 2026
- Current report23 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report08 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report15 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report17 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report12 Aug 2026Item 3.03 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Other events
- Quarterly report24 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / American Express Company · 06 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / American Express Company · 23 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / American Express Company · 23 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.