olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Business First Bancshares, Inc. BFST

State Commercial Banks · SIC 6022 · Vertical: State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022)

32.98USD+2.23% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Business First Bancshares is a financial holding company based in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, which through its subsidiary b1BANK serves mainly small and midsized businesses and their owners in Louisiana, the Dallas/Fort Worth area and Houston. With the Progressive Bank integration just completed, total assets of 8.2 billion USD at the end of 2025 show the scale of the franchise, and a rising net interest margin in the third quarter of 2026 makes the trend in profitability worth following.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) stock was 32.98 USD (+2.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, P/E 11.6 on diluted EPS of 2.84 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.82%, beta 0.81, 52-week range 24.25–32.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.3 m USD (+30.2% YoY), net income of 24.6 m USD (+7.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.71 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.1 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.6
Diluted EPS TTM 2.84 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
8.62%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.82%
DPS 12m 0.60
Beta (2y)
0.81
Volatility (1y) 22%
52-week range
24.2532.98

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
67.9
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
30.22 – 32.83
above the upper band · %B 1.06 · band width 8.3%
SMA 50 / 200
31.18 / 29.44
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.41 / 0.27
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+6.8%−1.1%+7.9 pp—
3 months+3.1%−0.5%+3.5 pp—
6 months+19.3%+4.4%+14.9 pp—
Year to date+26.2%+12.3%+13.9 pp—
1 year+34.0%+13.5%+20.4 pp+23.6%
3 years+57.9%+76.4%−18.5 pp+74.0%
5 years+18.3%+63.7%−45.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−13.9%
04 Feb 2026 → 20 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−53.3%
07 Jan 2022 → 04 May 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+3.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.3 m USD
+30.2% YoY
Net income
24.6 m USD
+7.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.71
−2.7% YoY
net / operating
735.1% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue2.9 m2.9 m2.6 m2.6 m2.6 m3.1 m3.2 m3.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.6 m1.4 m1.4 m ≈1.4 m ≈1.4 m1.6 m1.7 m ≈1.7 m ≈
Pre-tax income21.3 m25.8 m28.0 m28.9 m27.6 m29.5 m30.3 m30.8 m
Income tax4.8 m5.3 m5.9 m6.0 m5.2 m5.9 m6.1 m6.2 m
Net income16.5 m20.5 m22.1 m22.9 m22.4 m23.6 m24.2 m24.6 m
Diluted EPS0.56 ≈0.650.700.730.75 ≈0.680.700.71
Operating cash flow17.3 m28.6 m14.0 m ≈32.4 m ≈17.1 m26.7 m27.1 m ≈43.7 m ≈
Capex-275.0 k1.1 m222.0 k ≈334.0 k ≈-1.6 m———
Dividends paid4.2 m4.1 m4.2 m ≈4.1 m ≈4.4 m4.9 m4.9 m ≈4.9 m ≈
Share repurchases—00 ≈0 ≈3.7 m2.8 m4.8 m ≈6.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 5.8, median 10.2, max 34.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.8 m4.0 m5.4 m6.8 m8.3 m9.7 m10.6 m10.7 m
Revenue YoY+33.2%+43.6%+32.8%+27.2%+21.4%+17.3%+9.0%+1.2%
Net income14.1 m23.8 m30.0 m52.1 m54.3 m71.0 m65.1 m87.9 m
Net income YoY+190.7%+68.7%+26.2%+73.8%+4.1%+30.9%−8.4%+34.9%
Diluted EPS1.221.741.642.532.322.592.262.79
Diluted EPS YoY+100.0%+42.6%−5.7%+54.3%−8.3%+11.6%−12.7%+23.5%
net %501.5%589.1%559.9%765.2%655.9%732.1%615.6%820.8%
Free cash flow18.4 m20.5 m26.4 m52.5 m61.8 m79.3 m59.8 m92.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
411.2 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
896.9 m USD
Total assets
8.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
10.4%
ROA
1.1%
FCF margin
859.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Income statement · USD

Net interest income
2023
215.1 m
2024
227.4 m
2025
273.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net fee income
2023
36.6 m
2024
44.2 m
2025
51.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Non-interest expense
2023
156.7 m
2024
177.7 m
2025
203.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
90.6 m
2024
83.1 m
2025
110.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
71.0 m
2024
65.1 m
2025
87.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.59
2024
2.26
2025
2.79

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.50
2024
0.56
2025
0.57

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
226.1 m
2024
319.1 m
2025
411.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Loans
2023
5.0 bn
2024
5.9 bn
2025
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
6.6 bn
2024
7.9 bn
2025
8.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Deposits
2023
5.2 bn
2024
6.5 bn
2025
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.9 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
7.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
644.3 m †
2024
799.5 m †
2025
896.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Dividends paid
2023
12.7 m
2024
14.9 m
2025
16.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
3.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
34.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
24.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
23.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025

Profitability

Net margin
768.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
21.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
11.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
86.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Banking

Net interest margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cost-to-income
64.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Loan-to-deposit
91.1%
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
NPL ratio
unavailable
input data missing
CET1 ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cost of risk
unavailable
input data missing

32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 50 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

32.98 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
768.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

15/20 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 1790derived 161

Score by group

  • Balance sheet22
  • Growth69
  • Quality40
  • Returns19
  • Valuation76

Estimated value range

Low
31.20
USD per share
Mid
35.50
USD per share
High
39.39
USD per share
Price: 32.98 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 7.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 7.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.15 – 46.28 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Residual income30.93 – 32.36 (Mid 31.63)
  • Justified P/B30.15 – 40.55 (Mid 34.59)
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate7.49 – 10.07 (Mid 8.59)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
  • Peers: P/E31.47 – 38.24 (Mid 36.42)
    33 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 11.1x – 13.4x
    ACNB, ALLY, ASB, AUBN, BANR, BNY, BWFG, CFG, COFS, COSO, EFSI, EWBC, FBP, FHB, FUSB, FVCB, GABC, HTH, ISBA, JMSB, MNSB, MTB, MYFW, NTRS, NWFL, OFG, OPBK, PEBK, STT, TCBI, TCBK, WAL, WTFC
  • Peers: P/B34.26 – 46.28 (Mid 39.75)
    34 companies used · median multiple 1.3x · quartiles 1.1x – 1.5x
    ACNB, ALLY, ASB, AUBN, AVBH, BANR, BWFG, CFG, COFS, COSO, EFSI, EWBC, FBP, FHB, FITB, FUSB, FVCB, GABC, GBCI, HTH, ISBA, JMSB, MNSB, MTB, MYFW, NWFL, OFG, OPBK, PEBK, STT, TCBI, TCBK, WAL, WTFC
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 50/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality10.1%42 (vs peers)19%
ROA · Quality1.1%51 (on a fixed band)7%
Cost-to-income · Quality64.3%3 (on a fixed band)12%
Net interest margin · Quality3.6%84 (on a fixed band)7%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth6.3%53 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.0%90 (on a fixed band)7%
NPL ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Cost of risk · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet91.1%22 (on a fixed band)5%
P/B · Valuation1.1x83 (vs peers)12%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.6x69 (vs peers)12%
Dividend yield · Returns1.8%19 (vs peers)10%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial22/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality40/100 · 4/4 factors with a value
  • Returns19/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (BFST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: net interest income 273.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.2%; net margin 768.0%; ROE 10.1%.

The estimated value range is 31.20–39.39 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.50 USD, the price of 32.98 USD leaves a potential of 7.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 7.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 50/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net interest margin: 3.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.0%
  • P/B: 1.1x

What contradicts it

  • Cost-to-income: 64.3%
  • Loan-to-deposit: 91.1%
  • Dividend yield: 1.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): NPL ratio, Cost of risk.

Versus the vertical median

State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.6x
vertical median 12.9x
below median (−9.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
86.3x
vertical median 12.1x
above median (+613.9%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 1.3x
below median (−17.5%)
ROE
10.1%
vertical median 10.3%
at median
Net margin
768.0%
vertical median 37.3%
above median (+1,959.2%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
1.2%
vertical median 6.2%
below median (−80.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 2.7%
below median (−31.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BNYThe Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation102.8 bn16.815.0%32.6%+7.8%+36% / +216%
FITBFifth Third Bancorp49.4 bn18.49.4%—−2.0%+26% / +89%
STTState Street Corporation47.2 bn13.913.1%23.8%+7.3%+46% / +138%
MTBM&T Bank Corp32.4 bn11.710.7%178.1%+7.5%+18% / +75%
NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation32.2 bn13.718.4%28.8%−2.5%+36% / +125%
CFGCitizens Financial Group Inc27.6 bn13.08.9%25.4%+5.6%+22% / +142%
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.18.4 bn12.916.6%—+4.4%+26% / +113%
ALLYAlly Financial Inc.11.8 bn8.89.9%16.8%−3.3%−5% / +35%
WTFCWintrust Financial Corp10.5 bn11.912.9%347.5%+5.9%+16% / +82%
WALWestern Alliance Bancorporation8.5 bn8.713.3%436.5%+99.7%−3% / +55%
GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.6.5 bn18.68.8%308.8%+7.5%+17% / +48%
ASBAssociated Banc-Corp5.8 bn10.810.2%—−11.0%+19% / +77%
TCBITexas Capital Bancshares Inc4.5 bn13.410.2%—unavailable+18% / +93%
FBPFirst Bancorp4.1 bn11.219.5%29.0%+2.4%+34% / +77%
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.3.1 bn11.69.9%30.3%+8.9%+4% / +32%
BANRBanner Corporation2.6 bn12.210.0%—unavailable+14% / +59%
OFGOFG Bancorp2.2 bn10.116.1%—unavailable+30% / +53%
HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.2.1 bn15.76.6%—unavailable+10% / +28%
GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.1.9 bn13.412.5%28.2%+37.8%+28% / +76%
TCBKTriCo Bancshares1.7 bn12.910.4%249.7%+4.1%+12% / +57%
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.1.1 bn11.610.1%768.0%+1.2%+34% / +58%
ACNBAcnb Corporation686.6 m12.813.3%27.1%+45.1%+39% / +73%
BWFGBankwell Financial Group, Inc.584.1 m12.914.5%1,437.5%+44.0%+60% / +172%
COFSChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.562.5 m10.412.0%42.0%+63.6%+24% / +50%
NWFLNorwood Financial Corp398.9 m12.711.2%338.1%+8.1%+28% / +32%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BFST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
21.04
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
37.11
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
55.80
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
22.29
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
44.07
Total return 40% · Per year 12%
72.48
Total return 128% · Per year 32%
5 years
23.62
Total return -20% · Per year -4%
52.33
Total return 71% · Per year 11%
94.14
Total return 202% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.02
  • Net margin± 7.71
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.07
  • Annual dilution± 0.65

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

In brief

Business First Bancshares is a financial holding company based in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, which through its subsidiary b1BANK serves mainly small and midsized businesses and their owners in Louisiana, the Dallas/Fort Worth area and Houston. With the Progressive Bank integration just completed, total assets of 8.2 billion USD at the end of 2025 show the scale of the franchise, and a rising net interest margin in the third quarter of 2026 makes the trend in profitability worth following.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The community banking model with empowered local bankers and experience in mid-sized business lending gives the bank a distinct position in its markets 1.
  • Profitability rose in 2025, with net interest income up sharply, showing that the growth strategy has produced measurable results 1.
  • Solid capital ratios and a high return on common equity give the bank flexibility for buybacks and acquisitions 13.

Weaknesses

  • Geographic concentration in Louisiana, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston exposes the bank to regional economic downturns, especially in real estate and energy 1.
  • Dependence on key executives and on the ability to attract and retain bankers is a sensitive point, since losing them could directly affect client relationships 1.
  • Smaller scale compared with regional and national rivals limits its ability to compete on deposit and loan pricing 1.

Opportunities

  • Full integration of Progressive Bank could generate operating synergies if the unified platform works efficiently 3.
  • Growth in commercial money market deposits, seen in the third quarter of 2026, could support lending without high funding costs 3.

Threats

  • A fall in property prices or a slowdown in the regional energy sector could increase losses on loans secured by real estate 1.
  • Intense competition from large banks and non-bank lenders could force margins lower or raise deposit costs 1.
  • Changes in monetary policy or interest rates could affect the net interest margin and the value of the securities portfolio 23.

Risks

  • Geographic concentrationhigh

    All operations are in Louisiana, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston, so a regional crisis could hit the company harder than rivals with broader coverage 1.

  • Exposure to commercial real estate loanshigh

    A large part of the loan book is secured by commercial and construction real estate, and deterioration in these loans would require additional provisions for credit losses 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating Progressive and other acquisitions could bring unforeseen costs, asset quality risks and difficulty keeping key clients and bankers 2.

  • Interest rate sensitivitymedium

    Interest income depends on market rate levels, and a sudden change could reduce margins and the value of securities held 13.

  • Reliance on personnellow

    Success depends on keeping the executive team and profitable bankers, and losing them could affect client relationships and growth plans 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the net interest margin keeps rising and loans grow in markets with solid demand, profitability could stay above the levels of 2024 13.
  • The Progressive Bank integration, now converted onto the common platform, could lower costs over the medium term and support earnings per share growth 3.
  • A niche position in small and midsized businesses, combined with the buyback programme, could support shareholder value if loan quality stays stable 13.

What would break the thesis

  • If non-performing loans rise again, provisions could quickly reduce profit and put pressure on the bank's capital 13.
  • A slowdown in the Texas or Louisiana economy could affect this bank more strongly than rivals that are more geographically diversified 1.
  • Integration and conversion costs, as seen in the third quarter, could continue to offset efficiency gains if unexpected issues arise 3.

What to watch

  • Level of non-performing loans and provision expenseQ4 2026
  • Development of the net interest margin after the Progressive conversionQ1 2027
  • Pace of share repurchases and the level of capital2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

The business

The company reports one operating segment, community banking, so revenue comes mainly from interest on loans, customer service and loan fees, and interest on securities 1. Results are sensitive to market interest rates and to the mix of loans and deposits.

Segments

Community banking

This is the only reported segment and covers lending, deposit taking and services for businesses and individuals. Net interest income was 273.2 million USD in 2025 1, and the net interest margin was 3.69 percent in the same year 1.

Business and commercial real estate lending

The business loan book includes lines of credit, working capital loans, equipment financing and commercial real estate loans. About 52.5 percent of loans were secured by commercial or construction real estate at the end of 2025 1, so the health of the local property market matters a lot for portfolio quality.

Wealth management services

Through its affiliate Smith Shellnut Wilson, LLC, the bank manages 5.5 billion USD in assets, excluding the 1.0 billion USD of b1BANK assets managed by SSW 3. This activity complements the relationship with higher net worth clients, although it is not reported as a separate segment.

Market context

The company operates in Louisiana, the Dallas/Fort Worth area and Houston, and management describes an area between Dallas/Fort Worth and Jackson, Mississippi, and between Houston and Mobile, Alabama, as underserved by banks for small and midsized businesses 1. At June 30, 2026 total assets were 8.9 billion USD and deposits 7.2 billion USD 2.

In the third quarter of 2026, loan and deposit growth was led by the Houston and Southwest Louisiana markets 3. Expansion into new markets depends on recruiting suitable banking teams, so the pace of growth could differ from one region to another.

Trends

  • Rising net interest margintailwind

    In the third quarter of 2026 the net interest margin rose to 3.86 percent, helped by better loan yields and a lower overall cost of funding 3. If pressure on funding costs keeps easing, this trend could continue to support interest income.

  • Progressive Bank integrationmixed

    The conversion of Progressive Bank's core systems onto the b1BANK platform was completed in August 2026 3. The integration could bring savings over the medium term, but conversion and lease termination costs lifted operating expenses in the third quarter.

  • Non-performing loans remain elevatedheadwind

    The ratio of non-performing loans to loans held for investment reached 1.24 percent in 2025 and stayed at the same level at September 30, 2026 13. Portfolio quality in commercial lending could come under pressure if the regional economy slows.

Competitive position

The company identifies its main rivals as larger regional and national banks with broader branch networks and more aggressive pricing on deposits and loans 1. Some non-bank competitors face lighter regulation and have lower cost structures, which could compress margins.

To differentiate itself, the bank emphasizes local bankers with decision-making authority, high-touch service and a relationship-based community model rather than an extensive branch network 1. This edge depends on the bank's ability to keep profitable bankers in the face of larger competitors.

  • Regional and national banks in Texas and Louisiana

    Competitors described as larger, with greater financial resources and name recognition, which can offer more attractive compensation packages to bankers 1.

  • Non-bank financial institutions

    Competitors that operate with fewer regulatory constraints and lower cost structures, and that the company says can compete aggressively on price 1.

  • Small local community banks

    Local rivals that offer close customer service but do not always have the risk management and technology platform that Business First has 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Business First Bancshares, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Business First Bancshares, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Business First Bancshares, Inc. · 26 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.