olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR

Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers · SIC 5211 · Vertical: Building materials and hardware retail (SIC 52xx)

65.50USD−5.76% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of building materials to professional homebuilders in the US, combining prefabricated components with integrated installation services for new residential construction and remodeling. Its network of more than 565 locations is now tested by lower construction volumes, and quarterly profitability contracted sharply.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) stock was 65.50 USD (−5.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.0 bn USD, P/E 175.2 on diluted EPS of 0.37 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.22, 52-week range 50.52–128.96 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.9 bn USD (−2.2% YoY), net income of 60.4 m USD (−50.6% YoY), diluted EPS 0.56 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
7.0 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
175.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.37 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.57%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.22
Volatility (1y) 53%
52-week range
50.52128.96

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
59.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
46.30 – 69.05
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.84 · band width 39.5%
SMA 50 / 200
59.03 / 79.01
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.27 / 0.69
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.5%−5.9%+22.5 pp—
3 months−9.7%−4.6%−5.0 pp—
6 months−17.5%+0.2%−17.7 pp—
Year to date−36.3%+7.4%−43.8 pp—
1 year−41.3%+8.2%−49.5 pp−5.7%
3 years−47.8%+68.4%−116.3 pp−9.8%
5 years−2.6%+56.5%−59.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−60.8%
15 Jan 2026 → 14 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−76.1%
21 Mar 2024 → 14 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−0.5%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.9 bn USD
−2.2% YoY
Net income
60.4 m USD
−50.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.56
−49.1% YoY
net / operating
1.6% / 2.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue3.8 bn3.7 bn4.2 bn3.9 bn3.4 bn3.3 bn3.9 bn3.9 bn
Cost of revenue2.6 bn2.5 bn2.9 bn2.7 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn2.8 bn2.8 bn
Gross profit1.2 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.0 bn929.0 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
SG&A930.0 m930.8 m987.8 m970.7 m940.2 m912.5 m958.3 m973.2 m
Operating income304.1 m184.4 m311.3 m228.8 m61.8 m16.5 m128.5 m99.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation136.5 m145.0 m147.5 m ≈147.5 m ≈151.3 m148.4 m150.0 m ≈148.8 m ≈
Pre-tax income251.0 m119.5 m239.3 m159.5 m-6.0 m-57.9 m52.4 m26.8 m
Income tax60.8 m23.2 m54.3 m37.1 m-37.5 m-10.5 m56.3 m-33.6 m
Net income190.2 m96.3 m185.0 m122.4 m31.5 m-47.4 m-3.9 m60.4 m
Diluted EPS1.65 ≈0.841.661.100.28 ≈-0.43-0.040.56
Operating cash flow373.5 m132.3 m341.0 m ≈547.7 m ≈194.8 m87.5 m68.0 m ≈146.6 m ≈
Capex99.7 m100.0 m88.7 m ≈85.8 m ≈88.1 m46.7 m38.0 m ≈72.6 m ≈
Share repurchases363.8 m12.3 m401.6 m ≈1.0 k ≈0300.1 m3.5 m ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.6, median 12.8, max 152.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue7.7 bn7.3 bn8.6 bn19.9 bn22.7 bn17.1 bn16.4 bn15.2 bn
Revenue YoY+9.8%−5.8%+17.6%+132.4%+14.2%−24.8%−4.1%−7.4%
Net income205.2 m221.8 m313.5 m1.7 bn2.7 bn1.5 bn1.1 bn435.2 m
Net income YoY+429.1%+8.1%+41.4%+450.3%+59.3%−44.0%−30.0%−59.6%
Diluted EPS1.761.902.668.4816.8211.949.063.89
Diluted EPS YoY+417.6%+8.0%+40.0%+218.8%+98.3%−29.0%−24.1%−57.1%
net %2.7%3.0%3.7%8.7%12.1%9.0%6.6%2.9%
Free cash flow181.4 m391.2 m148.0 m1.5 bn3.3 bn1.8 bn1.5 bn853.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
181.8 m USD
Financial debt
14.3 m USD
Net debt
-167.4 m USD
Equity
4.4 bn USD
Total assets
11.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
1.86x
ROE
10.1%
ROA
4.0%
FCF margin
5.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
17.1 bn
2024
16.4 bn
2025
15.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
11.1 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
6.0 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
786.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
558.3 m
2024
561.9 m
2025
591.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
2.7 bn ≈
2024
2.2 bn ≈
2025
1.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
512.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
443.6 m
2024
309.6 m
2025
77.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
435.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
11.94
2024
9.06
2025
3.89

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
129.0 m
2024
119.0 m
2025
111.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
66.2 m
2024
153.6 m
2025
181.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
10.5 bn
2024
10.6 bn
2025
11.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
881.4 m
2024
868.1 m
2025
714.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
3.6 m
2024
3.5 m
2025
14.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.8 bn
2024
6.3 bn
2025
6.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.7 bn †
2024
4.3 bn †
2025
4.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.3 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
476.3 m
2024
380.6 m
2025
362.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.8 bn ≈
2024
1.5 bn ≈
2025
853.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-668.3 m
2024
-710.7 m
2025
-1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.7 bn
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
279.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
414.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-50.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-59.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-45.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-57.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-38.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-42.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
28.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-50.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
496.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
245.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
251.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
619.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
54.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
42 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
7.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
173.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
175.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
28.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

65.50 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 7.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
7.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
175.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2558derived 194

Score by group

  • Growth0
  • Returns62
  • Balance sheet68
  • Valuation48
  • Quality47

Estimated value range

Low
45.44
USD per share
Mid
49.98
USD per share
High
57.27
USD per share
Price: 65.50 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -23.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -31.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.54 – 103.24 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA83.34 – 103.24 (Mid 91.07)
    4 companies used · median multiple 10.8x · quartiles 9.9x – 12.2x
    FND, HD, LOW, TSCO
  • Peers: P/E7.54 – 11.29 (Mid 8.89)
    6 companies used · median multiple 23.8x · quartiles 20.2x – 30.2x
    FAST, FND, HD, LOW, SHW, TSCO
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Building materials and hardware retail (SIC 52xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality6.4%20 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality0.3%40 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality619.4%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-12.6%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-38.6%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x60 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x87 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation175.2x0 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation7.7x100 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%45 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.3%62 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial62/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (BLDR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.4%; net margin 0.3%; ROE 1.0%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 45.44–57.27 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 49.98 USD, the price of 65.50 USD leaves a potential of -23.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -31.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 619.4%
  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 7.7x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 6.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -12.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -38.6%
  • P/E (TTM): 175.2x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Building materials and hardware retail (SIC 52xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
175.2x
vertical median 23.8x
above median (+636.8%)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
vertical median 11.5x
below median (−32.8%)
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−58.8%)
P/B
1.7x
vertical median 4.6x
below median (−62.8%)
ROE
1.0%
vertical median 9.9%
below median (−90.2%)
Net margin
0.3%
vertical median 6.2%
below median (−95.4%)
EBIT margin
2.1%
vertical median 6.5%
below median (−67.0%)
Revenue YoY
-7.4%
vertical median 2.9%
below median (−358.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median -0.1x
at median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.349.1 bn24.5104.3%8.4%+3.2%−2% / +12%
LOWLowes Companies Inc127.5 bn19.2—7.3%+3.1%−6% / +14%
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company84.3 bn32.163.7%10.7%+2.1%+2% / +25%
FASTFastenal Co60.7 bn42.835.3%15.6%+8.7%+31% / +76%
TSCOTractor Supply Co19.0 bn10.570.5%11.6%+4.3%−33% / −10%
BLDRBuilders Firstsource, Inc.7.0 bn175.21.0%0.3%−7.4%−41% / −48%
FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.5.4 bn23.19.9%5.1%+5.1%−19% / −44%
GRWGGrowgeneration Corp.86.6 m—-17.1%-10.1%−14.4%−5% / −45%
JCTCJewett-Cameron Trading Company Ltd.10.1 m—-43.7%-20.9%−12.4%+16% / −41%
IPWiPower Inc.1.7 m—-66.0%-58.2%−68.4%−100% / −100%
ZKHZKH Group Limited——-4.6%-1.6%+2.6%−60% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for BLDR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
35.31
Total return -46% · Per year -46%
62.75
Total return -4% · Per year -4%
94.95
Total return 45% · Per year 45%
3 years
28.04
Total return -57% · Per year -25%
56.63
Total return -14% · Per year -5%
94.95
Total return 45% · Per year 13%
5 years
22.27
Total return -66% · Per year -19%
51.11
Total return -22% · Per year -5%
94.95
Total return 45% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 14.16
  • Net margin± 9.91
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.95
  • Annual dilution± 0.83

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of building materials to professional homebuilders in the US, combining prefabricated components with integrated installation services for new residential construction and remodeling. Its network of more than 565 locations 2 is now tested by lower construction volumes, and quarterly profitability contracted sharply 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Broad national reach, with a dense network of locations across most major US metropolitan areas, giving a scale advantage that is hard to match 1.
  • An integrated portfolio of manufactured products and installation services makes the company a preferred partner for large builders 1.
  • Financial capacity supported by earlier cash generation, which funded share repurchases and acquisitions 13.

Weaknesses

  • Margins contracted sharply in the latest quarter, and high fixed costs mean lower volumes quickly hit results 3.
  • Leverage rose compared with the prior year, which reduces financial flexibility in weak periods 3.
  • Dependence on new construction volumes and lumber prices makes revenue volatile from quarter to quarter 1.

Opportunities

  • Growth in manufactured products and prefabricated components, with better margins, could offset lower volumes 1.
  • Acquisitions of smaller firms in underserved regions could expand market share if prices remain reasonable 1.
  • Digitalization through the Paradigm unit and planning tools could increase customer loyalty 1.

Threats

  • High interest rates and weak housing affordability could prolong the period of weak demand 2.
  • Competitors selling directly or home center chains entering the professional segment could reduce market share 1.
  • Import tariffs and lumber price volatility could affect costs and margins 2.

Risks

  • Residential construction cyclehigh

    Sales depend on new construction volumes, which are falling. If the decline continues, high fixed costs could weigh even more on results 13.

  • Higher leveragehigh

    The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA has risen compared with last year. If results stay weak, flexibility for acquisitions and buybacks could shrink 3.

  • Lumber price volatilitymedium

    Lumber and panel products face large price swings that can quickly affect sales and margins, especially when prices fall sharply 1.

  • Competitive pressuremedium

    Dealers, home center chains and direct-selling manufacturers could win customers if the company does not keep its service and cost advantage 1.

  • Execution of acquisitions and technology investmentslow

    Integrating acquisitions and new systems such as ERP could bring unexpected costs or delays without the anticipated benefits 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If interest rates and housing affordability improve, construction volumes could recover and support earnings growth, using the company's scale 12.
  • Growth in manufactured products, which carry better margins, could improve profitability even in a lower-volume environment 1.
  • The company's cash flow could still fund buybacks and acquisitions if financing conditions remain favorable 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If new construction keeps falling, margins could stay under pressure and leverage metrics could become harder to manage 23.
  • If competitors or home center chains win large customers, the company's share could fall and pricing could be forced lower 1.
  • If lumber prices drop sharply or tariffs rise, results could be hit again, without full pass-through of costs to customers 1.

What to watch

  • Pace of cost reductions and full-year results versus the adjusted EBITDA guidanceQ3 2026
  • Trend in net debt and the ratio to adjusted EBITDAQ3 2026
  • US housing starts data and forecasts for 20272027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

The company supplies materials for professional residential construction, covering both new builds and repair and remodeling, by manufacturing and installing structural elements. Manufactured products include trusses, wall panels and Ready-Frame packages, while the range also includes vinyl windows, doors, millwork and semi-custom modular homes 1. It operates in 43 states, with its location count falling from 585 at the end of 2025 to 565 by mid-2026 12.

The business model relies on integrated services: material procurement, planning, installation and turn-key construction, letting builders outsource entire stages. The Paradigm digital unit adds estimating, drafting and virtual design tools 1. This integration explains why large customers consolidate suppliers around the company 1.

The stated strategy emphasizes organic growth in higher-margin products such as trusses, wall panels and millwork, alongside acquisitions that totaled a combined purchase price of 1.1 billion USD in 2025 1. Besides acquisitions, the company has repurchased shares consistently, which has changed its capital structure 12.

Segments

Professional segment and manufactured products

The main segment serves single-family, multi-family and professional remodeling builders. Manufactured products such as factory-built trusses and wall panels are the higher-value category the company intends to expand 1.

Lumber and sheet goods

Lumber and sheet goods such as plywood and OSB are a significant part of sales and are highly sensitive to commodity prices. Their share of net sales shows how exposed the company is to price swings 1.

Windows, doors and millwork

This category includes vinyl windows made in Houston, pre-hung doors and Synboard PVC millwork. It earns better margins than pure distribution and is supported by the company's manufacturing capacity 1.

Market context

The US professional residential building materials market is highly fragmented, with large national dealers, specialty dealers, building supply chains and local truss makers. Demand depends on new construction and remodeling, both influenced by interest rates, confidence and housing affordability 1.

Forecasts for 2026 point to a slightly lower number of housing starts than in 2025, while professional remodeling could grow modestly. For now the focus remains on a downturn, and a recovery that depends on interest rates and affordability remains uncertain 12.

Trends

  • Prefabricated componentstailwind

    Builders increasingly use prefabricated components, which cut on-site labor and build time. This is a long-term trend that favors suppliers with manufacturing capacity, such as BLDR 1.

  • Supplier consolidationtailwind

    Large builders are reducing their supplier count and allocating a larger share of purchases to full-range providers, which could help integrated companies gain market share 1.

  • Housing affordability and interest ratesheadwind

    High interest rates and home costs reduced demand in 2026, and the drop in construction volumes has directly hit the company's sales and margins 23.

  • Commodity prices and tariffsmixed

    Lumber prices and import tariffs affect both sales and margins. Commodity deflation reduced quarterly sales, but a later recovery in prices could support results 13.

Competitive position

Competition comes from national dealers, home center chains expanding into professional sales, manufacturers selling directly to builders, and regional or local suppliers. The low barrier to entry means new competitors can emerge at any time 1.

The company's advantage lies in scale, manufacturing capacity and integrated services, which smaller suppliers find hard to match. The risk remains that smaller or digital players win customers on price or technology 1.

  • Regional and local building material dealers

    Regional and local suppliers that compete on price and service, without a comparable national footprint.

  • Large home center chains

    Retailers expanding their sales to professional builders and using e-commerce.

  • Manufacturers selling directly

    Building product manufacturers delivering straight to large builders, bypassing distributors.

  • Regional truss and panel producers

    Local fabricators competing on prefabricated components and fast delivery.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Builders FirstSource, Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Builders FirstSource, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Builders FirstSource, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.