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olivLaw · US equity research

The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW

Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply · SIC 5200 · Vertical: Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200)

363.50USD+6.64% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Sherwin-Williams is a global maker and distributor of paints and coatings with a large network of company-operated stores. Net sales rose 2.1% in fiscal 2025 to $23.574 billion, and in the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 7.5% to $6.789 billion. The company raised its 2026 guidance but warned that demand remains soft and cost pressures could persist.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) stock was 363.50 USD (+6.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 87.8 bn USD, P/E 33.4 on diluted EPS of 10.88 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.88%, beta 0.76, 52-week range 293.00–372.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.9 bn USD (+7.9% YoY), net income of 821.0 m USD (−1.5% YoY), diluted EPS 3.38 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
87.8 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
33.4
Diluted EPS TTM 10.88 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.99%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.88%
DPS 12m 3.19
Beta (2y)
0.76
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
293.00372.60

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
65.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
311.42 – 355.62
above the upper band · %B 1.18 · band width 13.3%
SMA 50 / 200
329.61 / 332.72
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
5.00 / 2.31
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.1%−1.1%+15.2 pp—
3 months−1.7%−0.5%−1.2 pp—
6 months+12.3%+4.4%+7.9 pp—
Year to date+12.2%+12.3%−0.1 pp—
1 year+6.0%+13.5%−7.6 pp−33.2%
3 years+44.9%+76.4%−31.5 pp−26.4%
5 years+13.9%+63.7%−49.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−21.4%
12 Feb 2026 → 02 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.9%
31 Dec 2021 → 20 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
6.9 bn USD
+7.9% YoY
Net income
821.0 m USD
−1.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.38
+0.9% YoY
net / operating
12.0% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue5.3 bn5.3 bn6.3 bn6.4 bn5.6 bn5.7 bn6.8 bn6.9 bn
Cost of revenue2.7 bn2.7 bn3.2 bn3.2 bn2.9 bn2.9 bn3.5 bn3.6 bn
Gross profit2.6 bn2.6 bn3.1 bn3.1 bn2.7 bn2.8 bn3.3 bn3.3 bn
SG&A1.9 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn
Interest expense98.5 m103.8 m112.4 m117.2 m131.6 m131.6 m135.9 m139.3 m
Pre-tax income615.6 m653.0 m985.7 m1.1 bn639.0 m679.8 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Income tax135.5 m149.1 m231.0 m227.4 m162.2 m145.1 m268.9 m242.5 m
Net income480.1 m503.9 m754.7 m833.1 m476.8 m534.7 m843.6 m821.0 m
Diluted EPS1.90 ≈2.003.003.351.92 ≈2.153.433.38
Operating cash flow934.5 m-61.1 m1.1 bn ≈1.3 bn ≈1.1 bn139.1 m1.3 bn ≈1.1 bn ≈
Capex300.0 m189.3 m181.5 m196.4 m230.4 m138.3 m108.4 m ≈128.7 m ≈
Dividends paid179.8 m200.4 m197.9 m ≈195.7 m ≈195.8 m197.1 m197.5 m ≈194.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 77 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 7.1, median 27.6, max 50.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue17.5 bn17.9 bn18.4 bn19.9 bn22.1 bn23.1 bn23.1 bn23.6 bn
Revenue YoY+17.0%+2.1%+2.6%+8.6%+11.1%+4.1%+0.2%+2.1%
Net income1.1 bn1.5 bn2.0 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn2.4 bn2.7 bn2.6 bn
Net income YoY−35.8%+39.0%+31.7%−8.2%+8.4%+18.3%+12.2%−4.2%
Diluted EPS11.675.507.366.987.729.2510.5510.26
Diluted EPS YoY−35.9%−52.9%+33.8%−5.2%+10.6%+19.8%+14.1%−2.7%
net %6.3%8.6%11.1%9.3%9.1%10.4%11.6%10.9%
Free cash flow1.7 bn2.0 bn3.1 bn1.9 bn1.3 bn2.6 bn2.1 bn2.7 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
207.2 m USD
Financial debt
10.5 bn USD
Net debt
10.3 bn USD
Equity
4.6 bn USD
Total assets
25.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
2.29x
Current ratio
0.87x
ROE
59.4%
ROA
10.4%
FCF margin
11.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
23.1 bn
2024
23.1 bn
2025
23.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
12.3 bn
2024
11.9 bn
2025
12.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
10.8 bn
2024
11.2 bn
2025
11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
7.1 bn
2024
7.4 bn
2025
7.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
4.2 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2024verified

Interest expense
2023
417.5 m
2024
415.7 m
2025
465.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
721.1 m
2024
770.4 m
2025
769.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
9.25
2024
10.55
2025
10.26

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
258.3 m
2024
254.1 m
2025
250.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.42
2024
2.86
2025
3.16

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
276.8 m
2024
210.4 m
2025
207.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
5.5 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
7.6 bn
2024
7.6 bn
2025
8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.9 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
23.0 bn
2024
23.6 bn
2025
25.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
374.2 m
2024
662.4 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
8.4 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
9.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
6.6 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
6.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.7 bn †
2024
4.1 bn †
2025
4.6 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
3.5 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
888.4 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
797.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.6 bn ≈
2024
2.1 bn ≈
2025
2.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.0 bn
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.4 bn
2024
-2.0 bn
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
623.7 m
2024
723.4 m
2025
789.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-4.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
8.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
6.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
27.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
48.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
10.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
63.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
29.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
25.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
10.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
605.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
3.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
115.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
49 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
76 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
42 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
87.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
97.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
32.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
33.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
22.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
3.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
28.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 41 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

363.50 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 87.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
87.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
33.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
22.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
63.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Oct 2026
verified 3099derived 208

Score by group

  • Balance sheet0
  • Growth42
  • Quality80
  • Returns48
  • Valuation19

Estimated value range

Low
95.53
USD per share
Mid
119.38
USD per share
High
157.15
USD per share
Price: 363.50 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -67.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -204.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 41.53 – 258.45 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)149.54 – 258.45 (Mid 191.13)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 3.5 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 28.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)41.53 – 55.84 (Mid 47.63)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 41/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality10.7%60 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality115.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.1%18 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth9.9%66 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation33.4x0 (on a fixed band)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.5%44 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%13 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns25.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

THE SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY (SHW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.1%; net margin 10.7%; ROE 63.7%.

The estimated value range is 95.53–157.15 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 119.38 USD, the price of 363.50 USD leaves a potential of -67.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -204.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 41/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 115.0%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 25.5%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 33.4x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
33.4x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
3.5x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+303.5%)
P/B
22.1x
vertical median 4.1x
above median (+436.2%)
ROE
63.7%
vertical median -4.6%
above median
Net margin
10.7%
vertical median -1.6%
above median
EBIT margin
—
vertical median -2.4%
Revenue YoY
2.1%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−20.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company87.8 bn33.463.7%10.7%+2.1%+6% / +45%
FASTFastenal Co61.0 bn43.135.3%15.6%+8.7%+32% / +77%
TSCOTractor Supply Co19.1 bn10.373.4%11.9%+4.3%−33% / −10%
GRWGGrowgeneration Corp.89.6 m—-17.1%-10.1%−14.4%−2% / −43%
IPWiPower Inc.1.9 m—-66.0%-58.2%−68.4%−100% / −100%
ZKHZKH Group Limited——-4.6%-1.6%+2.6%−59% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for SHW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
213.57
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
378.02
Total return 5% · Per year 5%
570.01
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
197.40
Total return -44% · Per year -17%
394.07
Total return 11% · Per year 4%
653.83
Total return 83% · Per year 22%
5 years
182.45
Total return -47% · Per year -12%
410.80
Total return 18% · Per year 3%
749.98
Total return 113% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 98.52
  • Net margin± 68.96
  • Annual revenue growth± 57.94
  • Annual dilution± 5.79

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Sherwin-Williams is a global maker and distributor of paints and coatings with a large network of company-operated stores. Net sales rose 2.1% in fiscal 2025 to $23.574 billion, and in the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 7.5% to $6.789 billion 2. The company raised its 2026 guidance but warned that demand remains soft and cost pressures could persist 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The large company-operated store network is a distribution channel that is hard to replicate and supports sales to professionals 1.
  • Strong brands and the ability to pass price increases to customers support margins 13.
  • Strong operating cash flow funds investment, acquisitions and shareholder returns 12.

Weaknesses

  • Interest expense has risen and is expected to increase significantly in 2026, which weighs on profitability 1.
  • The Performance Coatings segment has lower margins and was roughly flat in fiscal 2025, showing exposure to industrial cycles 12.
  • Sales are seasonal and quarterly results can be volatile, especially if the economy slows 1.

Opportunities

  • Opening new stores in the United States and Canada planned for 2026 could extend market share 1.
  • Integrating Suvinil and expanding in Latin America could add further growth 12.
  • If construction demand recovers, the company could benefit from a rebound in housing and project work 1.

Threats

  • High interest rates and inflation could keep demand for housing and industrial products weak 1.
  • Trade tariffs and political instability could raise raw material costs and disrupt supply chains 1.
  • Extreme weather and natural disasters could disrupt production and distribution 1.

Risks

  • Interest-rate sensitive demandhigh

    If mortgage rates stay high, demand for new housing and non-residential projects could remain weak 1.

  • Raw material volatilityhigh

    Sudden increases in resin, solvent and energy costs could reduce margins if prices cannot be adjusted in time 12.

  • Tariffs and trade policymedium

    Changes in tariffs could raise the cost of imported raw materials and affect pricing plans 12.

  • Higher borrowing costsmedium

    Rising debt and interest costs used to finance acquisitions and the new headquarters could reduce net income 1.

  • Information technology and cybersecuritymedium

    The digitization program and cyber attacks could disrupt operations and financial reporting 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Sales growth in the second quarter of 2026, supported by pricing and share gains, shows the strategy can work even with soft demand 23.
  • Raised 2026 guidance suggests management is confident it can control costs and maintain margins 3.
  • The large store network and strong cash flow give flexibility for investment and shareholder returns 12.

What would break the thesis

  • Demand remains soft, and the company acknowledges this could persist in the second half, potentially limiting growth 23.
  • Passing through price increases to offset inflation could hurt volumes, especially in price-sensitive segments 23.
  • Interest expense is rising, and part of operating profit could be absorbed by financing costs 1.

What to watch

  • Sales trend at the Paint Stores Group and same-store sales growthQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the 2026 guidance and the impact of the September price increaseQ3 2026
  • Number of new stores opened and interest expense versus expectations2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

The model combines a network of company-operated paint stores with manufacturing in the Consumer Brands Group, which supplies most products sold through the stores 1. The brands are central to sales, and the company also earns licensing income from technology and trade names licensed to foreign companies 1. Sales are seasonal, with the majority occurring in the second and third quarters 1.

Growth is pursued through store expansion, acquisitions and the Success by Design strategy, which emphasizes talent, simplification, digitization, supply chain responsiveness and sustainability 12. The Suvinil acquisition, completed in October 2025, added sales in Latin America 1.

Market context

Paint demand depends on construction, housing and discretionary consumer spending, which are sensitive to interest rates and inflation 1. The company warned that high mortgage rates and inflation could continue to weigh on customer behavior in 2026 1. In the second quarter of 2026 demand remained soft, but sales improved through price increases and share gains 3.

Raw material, energy and logistics costs are volatile, and tariffs and trade restrictions can affect input costs 12. The company plans store growth to expand its footprint, but a further drop in demand could limit results, particularly in industrial and new residential construction 12.

Trends

  • Price increasestailwind

    Higher selling prices supported sales at the Paint Stores Group and partly offset raw material inflation, and the company announced a further 8% increase effective September 1 2026 23.

  • Weak construction demandheadwind

    High mortgage rates and inflation have limited demand for new housing and industrial projects, and the company expects this to continue in the second half of 2026 12.

  • Cost pressuresheadwind

    Inflation in raw materials, energy, logistics and packaging could reduce margins if prices cannot be passed on fully to customers 23.

  • Store network and digital investmentmixed

    Expanding the store network and investing in sales staff and digital tools may support long-term growth, but adds interest and operating costs 12.

Competitive position

The company competes with other paint and wallpaper stores, mass merchandisers, home centers, independent hardware stores and hardware chains 1. In industrial and performance coatings, competition comes from many global producers, some with niche products 1.

Key competitive factors include product quality, innovation, breadth of product line, technical expertise, distribution, service and price 1. The company argues its own store network and strong brands such as Valspar and Dutch Boy help protect its position 1.

  • PPG IndustriesPPG

    Paint and industrial coatings producer competing directly in performance coatings.

  • MascoMAS

    Company active in architectural paints and building products that overlaps with the consumer segment.

  • Home centers and mass merchandisers

    Named as competitors in selling paint to consumers through home centers and general merchandise retailers.

  • Private-label paint producers

    Producers of retailer-owned paint brands compete directly in the Consumer Brands segment.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
  • Current report27 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
  • Current report28 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report09 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
  • Current report28 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report24 Apr 2026
    Shareholder vote

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Sherwin-Williams Company · 19 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Sherwin-Williams Company · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Sherwin-Williams Company · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.