olivLaw · US equity research
British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI
Cigarettes · SIC 2111 · Vertical: Cigarettes (SIC 2111)
British American Tobacco is a global group of tobacco and nicotine products that is expanding its portfolio into smokeless categories such as vapour, heated products and nicotine pouches. The company reported total 2025 revenue of about 25.61 billion GBP, and with cigarette consumption under pressure, the shift to new categories is central to its strategy.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock was 62.97 USD (+3.40% on the day), with beta 0.07, 52-week range 52.64–66.70 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 54.63 – 63.51
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 56.82 / 59.21
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.58 / 1.26
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.1% | −1.1% | +20.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.2% | −0.5% | +6.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.7% | +4.4% | +1.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +12.3% | −1.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +18.9% | +13.5% | +5.3 pp | −34.7% |
| 3 years | +102.5% | +76.4% | +26.1 pp | −26.8% |
| 5 years | +82.1% | +63.7% | +18.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24.5 bn | 25.9 bn | 25.8 bn | 25.7 bn | 27.7 bn | 27.3 bn | 25.9 bn | 25.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +25.2% | +5.7% | −0.4% | −0.4% | +7.7% | −1.3% | −5.2% | −1.0% |
| Net income | 6.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.7 bn | -14.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 7.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | −83.9% | −5.4% | +12.2% | +6.3% | −2.0% | −315.5% | unavailable | +153.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.63 | 2.49 | 2.79 | 2.96 | 2.92 | -6.47 | 1.36 | 3.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −85.6% | −5.4% | +12.0% | +6.0% | −1.3% | −321.5% | unavailable | +156.7% |
| net % | 24.6% | 22.0% | 24.8% | 26.5% | 24.1% | -52.7% | 11.9% | 30.3% |
| Free cash flow | 9.5 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.9 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.6 bn | 5.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.8 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- 31.7 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 27.9 bn GBP
- Equity
- 48.1 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 109.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.66x
- Current ratio
- 0.87x
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- 22.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.8 bn | 25.7 bn | 27.7 bn | 27.3 bn | 25.9 bn | 25.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 307.0 m | 304.0 m | 323.0 m | 408.0 m | 380.0 m | 358.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 10.0 bn | 10.2 bn | 10.5 bn | -15.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 10.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 8.7 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.3 bn | -17.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 9.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | -2.9 bn | 357.0 m | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 6.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.7 bn | -14.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.79 | 2.96 | 2.92 | -6.47 | 1.36 | 3.49 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.16 | 2.18 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.45 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.3 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 13.6 bn | 12.8 bn | 15.4 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.3 bn | 12.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.1 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.6 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 43.3 bn | 43.2 bn | 48.0 bn | 41.1 bn | 41.1 bn | 38.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 137.7 bn | 137.4 bn | 153.5 bn | 118.7 bn | 118.9 bn | 109.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 9.7 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.4 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 39.9 bn | 35.7 bn | 38.7 bn | 35.4 bn | 32.6 bn | 31.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 15.5 bn | 15.1 bn | 17.9 bn | 15.7 bn | 18.7 bn | 14.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 63.0 bn | 67.4 bn | 75.7 bn | 52.9 bn | 50.0 bn | 48.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 9.8 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.1 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 511.0 m | 527.0 m | 523.0 m | 460.0 m | 486.0 m | 551.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 9.3 bn ≈ | 9.2 bn ≈ | 9.9 bn ≈ | 10.3 bn ≈ | 9.6 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -783.0 m | -1.1 bn | -705.0 m | -296.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.9 bn | -8.7 bn | -8.9 bn | -9.3 bn | -10.6 bn | -8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 4.9 bn | 5.0 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Mar 2022verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 2.0 bn | 0 | 698.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.3% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | 30.3% | 80 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 74.6% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.1% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet34/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth20/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 25.6 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -1.0%; net margin 30.3%; ROE 16.5%.
The estimated value range is 40.38–56.06 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 30.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.5%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Cigarettes (SIC 2111) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | 329.3 bn | 30.8 | — | 24.8% | +7.3% | +34% / +126% |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | 129.8 bn | 16.1 | — | 34.5% | −3.1% | +32% / +86% |
| RLXRLX Technology Inc. | 2.5 bn | 16.4 | 6.0% | 23.3% | +50.3% | −35% / −27% |
| ISPRIspire Technology Inc. | 86.6 m | — | — | -34.6% | −24.7% | −39% / −86% |
| XXII22nd Century Group, Inc. | 30.0 k | — | -32.4% | -27.0% | −27.9% | −100% / −100% |
| BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c. | — | — | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +19% / +103% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BTI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Oct 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026).
In brief
British American Tobacco is a global group of tobacco and nicotine products that is expanding its portfolio into smokeless categories such as vapour, heated products and nicotine pouches. The company reported total 2025 revenue of about 25.61 billion GBP, and with cigarette consumption under pressure, the shift to new categories is central to its strategy.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a global presence of over a century, with fully integrated factories and a broad brand portfolio that give it scale and access to diverse markets 1.
- Its leading position in rechargeable vapour and nicotine pouches gives it brand strength in growing categories 1.
- Investment in operational infrastructure and new categories is funded from cash flows and existing facilities, supporting strategic flexibility 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on combustibles remains high, as they make up most of revenue, exposing the group to declining cigarette volumes 1.
- Vapour sales fell in 2025 due to illicit products and their spread in the U.S. and Canada 1.
- The company has not always been able to pass cost increases on in prices without losing volume, which could compress margins 1.
Opportunities
- Rapid growth in nicotine pouches and premium launches such as Vuse Ultra and glo Hilo could open new markets 1.
- Regulatory recognition of reduced-risk products in some countries could ease access to new adult consumer segments 1.
- Diversification into related categories such as wellbeing and stimulation could add new sources of long-term growth 1.
Threats
- Illicit trade could continue to erode legal volumes and limit the ability to raise prices 1.
- Generational sales bans and tighter restrictions on reduced-risk products could shrink accessible markets 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers could disrupt supply chains and operations in several markets 1.
Risks
- Illicit tradehigh
Counterfeit and tax-evading products can erode brand equity, volumes and pricing power, and the group could face fines for product diversion 1.
- Regulation and banshigh
Flavour restrictions, packaging rules and possible generational sales bans could limit market access 1.
- New Categories demand and supplymedium
The New Categories supply chain is complex, and quality issues, recalls or failed product approvals could affect revenue 1.
- Geopolitics and operational disruptionmedium
Conflict, attacks on shipping routes and trade barriers could raise costs and reduce sales in some markets 1.
- Cyber risklow
Security incidents could disrupt digital systems and operations, although the company reports that none has so far materially affected it 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in nicotine pouches and heated products continues, the group could offset the decline in combustibles and shift its revenue mix 1.
- The return of Vuse sales growth in the U.S. in the second half of 2025 could signal stabilisation in vapour if enforcement against illicit products intensifies 1.
- Global scale and a broad brand portfolio could give advantages in cost negotiations and in launching new products 1.
What would break the thesis
- If illicit trade keeps growing, legal sales could fall faster than the company expects and margins could come under pressure 1.
- Generational sales bans or further restrictions on reduced-risk products could significantly shrink accessible markets 1.
- Dependence on combustibles and cost pressure could limit the group's ability to fund the transition to new categories 1.
What to watch
- Trend in U.S. Vuse sales and the effect of enforcement against illicit products2026
- Delivery of the planned gross capital expenditure of around 750 million GBP2026
- Outcome of the appeal of the denied PMTA for Vuse menthol and mixed berry products in the U.S.next 10-K
- EU evaluation of the Single-Use Plastics Directive and possible restrictions on cigarette filters2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (23 Oct 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026).
The business
British American Tobacco p.l.c. is the parent holding company of a multi-category consumer goods group that provides tobacco and nicotine products to adult consumers around the world 1. The group is organised into three regions: the U.S., Americas and Europe (AME), and Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa (APMEA), and its 2025 revenue was 25.61 billion GBP 1. The company operates 36 fully integrated cigarette manufacturing facilities in 35 markets and has been transforming into a multi-category business since launching its first Vapour product in 2013 1.
Segments
Market context
The legal tobacco market is increasingly constrained by regulation, taxation and illicit trade, which reached just above 15% of global volume in 2025 1. The company says that with rising living costs, illicit volumes could approach unprecedented levels by 2027 1. At the same time, the reduced-risk product market is growing, and the group estimates the number of adult smokers could fall by around 20 million by 2028 1.
Trends
- Illicit tradeheadwind
Illicit tobacco has grown since the pandemic and could reach unprecedented levels by 2027, especially in Australasia, the Middle East and Africa 1. The company says illegal flavoured and single-use vapour products account for around 70% of the U.S. vapour market, which has eroded Vuse sales 1.
- Growth of smokeless productstailwind
Reduced-risk products such as nicotine pouches are expected to grow strongly, and their market could keep expanding if regulation stays supportive 1. Modern Oral was the most dynamic part of the portfolio in 2025 1.
- Combustibles regulationheadwind
Many governments are pursuing smoke-free targets, and some are considering generational sales bans for people born after a given year, which could affect cigarette volumes over the long term 1.
- Raw material and labour costsmixed
Tobacco, energy and packaging prices are volatile, and the company has not always been able to pass cost increases on in prices without losing volume 1. Diversified leaf sourcing could partly ease these pressures 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from illicit products that evade regulation and taxes, as well as from other producers of smokeless products competing in vapour and heated categories 1. In heated products the company says competitive pressure has weighed on growth, and the roll-out of glo Hilo in key markets could support a recovery 1.
- Imperial Brands
Global tobacco competitor, referenced in the context of competitive pressure across product categories 1.
- Illicit product manufacturers
Unlicensed makers of vapour and single-use products that gain share through lower prices 1.
- Heated product manufacturers
Competitors in heated products, where the group says competitive pressure has slowed growth 1.
- Nicotine pouch manufacturers
Competitors in oral pouches, a fast-growing segment attracting new entrants 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- British American Tobacco vs Altria: Which High-Yield Dividend Stock Is the Better BuyYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- British American Tobacco concediază 9.000 de angajați pentru a economisi 600 de milioane de lireLibertatea.ro · 30 Jun 2026 · RO
- British American Tobacco reduce aproximativ 9.000 de posturi, într-o restructurare amplă bazată pe inteligenţa artificialăMoney.ro · 30 Jun 2026 · RO
- British American Tobacco сократит 20% сотрудников и расширит использование ИИKommersant (RU) · 29 Jun 2026 · RU
- Restructurări în industria tutunului. British American Tobacco dă afară 20% din angajațiMediafax · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- Producătorul de țigări British American Tobacco va desființa peste cinci mii de locuri de muncă, iar alte trei mii vor fi externalizate către firme partenere, ca parte a unui plan prin care vrea să automatizeze o serie de procese, în special prin intermediul AI. Nu este clar cum vor fi afectați și cei trei mii de angajați din România.Biziday.ro · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- Gigantul tutunului British American Tobacco taie 9.000 de locuri de muncă la nivel global, inclusiv în România, pe fondul scăderii cererii pentru ţigările tradiţionaleZiarul Financiar · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- Un nou val de concedieri: Gigantul British American Tobacco taie 9.000 de locuri de muncă la nivel global, inclusiv în RomâniaZiarul Financiar · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- Concedieri în masă la British American Tobacco. Compania va renunța la 20% din forţa sa de muncă: Mii de angajați rămân fără joburiAntena 3 CNN · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- British American Tobacco to slash 9,000 jobs as it turns to AIThe Guardian World · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 16 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / British American Tobacco p.l.c. · 13 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.