olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Philip Morris International Inc. PM

Cigarettes · SIC 2111 · Vertical: Cigarettes (SIC 2111)

211.28USD+1.56% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Philip Morris International is an international consumer goods company aiming to move beyond cigarettes through smoke-free products, especially IQOS, ZYN and VEEV. Net revenues were $40.6 billion in fiscal 2025, and reached $32.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) stock was 211.28 USD (+1.56% on the day), with market capitalisation 329.3 bn USD, P/E 30.8 on diluted EPS of 6.85 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.84%, beta -0.00, 52-week range 147.81–211.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.4 bn USD (+5.5% YoY), net income of 3.3 bn USD (−4.7% YoY), diluted EPS 2.12 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
329.3 bn USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8
Diluted EPS TTM 6.85 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.24%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.84%
DPS 12m 6.01
Beta (2y)
-0.00
Volatility (1y) 28%
52-week range
147.81211.28

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
66.7
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
195.66 – 210.87
above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 7.5%
SMA 50 / 200
195.22 / 182.45
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
4.00 / 3.37
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+11.5%−1.1%+12.6 pp—
3 months+11.8%−0.5%+12.3 pp—
6 months+23.9%+4.4%+19.5 pp—
Year to date+31.7%+12.3%+19.4 pp—
1 year+43.1%+13.5%+29.5 pp−34.7%
3 years+130.9%+76.4%+54.4 pp−26.8%
5 years+124.1%+63.7%+60.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−19.3%
25 Feb 2026 → 21 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−25.8%
17 Feb 2022 → 30 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+17.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
11.4 bn USD
+5.5% YoY
Net income
3.3 bn USD
−4.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.12
−4.9% YoY
net / operating
29.0% / 42.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue9.7 bn9.3 bn10.1 bn10.8 bn10.4 bn10.1 bn11.2 bn11.4 bn
Cost of revenue3.4 bn3.0 bn3.3 bn3.5 bn3.6 bn3.2 bn3.5 bn3.6 bn
Gross profit6.3 bn6.3 bn6.9 bn7.4 bn6.8 bn6.9 bn7.7 bn7.9 bn
Operating income3.3 bn3.5 bn3.7 bn4.3 bn3.4 bn3.9 bn4.5 bn4.9 bn
Depreciation & amortisation477.0 m480.0 m490.0 m505.0 m521.0 m510.0 m513.0 m511.0 m
Pre-tax income2.9 bn3.3 bn3.4 bn4.0 bn3.1 bn3.7 bn4.3 bn4.6 bn
Income tax872.0 m659.0 m652.0 m751.0 m675.0 m676.0 m955.0 m986.0 m
Net income-579.0 m2.7 bn3.0 bn3.5 bn2.1 bn2.4 bn2.8 bn3.3 bn
Diluted EPS-0.37 ≈1.721.952.231.37 ≈1.561.802.12
Operating cash flow4.0 bn-350.0 m3.4 bn ≈4.5 bn ≈4.7 bn-399.0 m5.5 bn ≈5.4 bn ≈
Capex278.0 m404.0 m356.0 m ≈365.0 m ≈444.0 m353.0 m380.0 m ≈382.0 m ≈
Dividends paid2.1 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn ≈2.1 bn ≈2.3 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn ≈2.3 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 13.1, median 18.8, max 34.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue29.6 bn29.8 bn28.7 bn31.4 bn31.8 bn35.2 bn37.9 bn40.6 bn
Revenue YoY+3.1%+0.6%−3.7%+9.4%+1.1%+10.7%+7.7%+7.3%
Net income7.9 bn7.2 bn8.1 bn9.1 bn9.0 bn7.8 bn7.1 bn11.3 bn
Net income YoY+31.1%−9.2%+12.1%+13.1%−0.7%−13.6%−9.7%+60.8%
Diluted EPS5.084.615.165.835.815.024.527.26
Diluted EPS YoY+30.9%−9.3%+11.9%+13.0%−0.3%−13.6%−10.0%+60.6%
net %26.7%24.1%28.1%29.0%28.5%22.2%18.6%27.9%
Free cash flow8.0 bn9.2 bn9.2 bn11.2 bn9.7 bn7.9 bn10.8 bn10.7 bn

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.9 bn USD
Financial debt
168.0 m USD
Net debt
-4.7 bn USD
Equity
-8.0 bn USD
Total assets
69.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.96x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
17.3%
FCF margin
26.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
35.2 bn
2024
37.9 bn
2025
40.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
12.9 bn
2024
13.3 bn
2025
13.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
22.3 bn
2024
24.5 bn
2025
27.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
709.0 m
2024
759.0 m
2025
756.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
11.6 bn
2024
13.4 bn
2025
14.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
13.0 bn ≈
2024
15.2 bn ≈
2025
16.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
10.5 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
13.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
2.3 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
7.8 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
11.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.02
2024
4.52
2025
7.26

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
5.14
2024
5.30
2025
5.64

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.1 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.5 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
10.8 bn
2024
9.5 bn
2025
11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
19.8 bn
2024
20.2 bn
2025
24.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2021verified

Goodwill
2023
16.8 bn
2024
16.6 bn
2025
17.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
9.9 bn
2024
11.3 bn
2025
10.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
65.3 bn
2024
61.8 bn
2025
69.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.1 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
2.0 bn
2024
137.0 m
2025
168.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
26.4 bn
2024
22.9 bn
2025
25.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
74.8 bn
2024
71.7 bn
2025
77.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-9.4 bn
2024
-9.9 bn
2025
-8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
9.2 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
12.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
7.9 bn ≈
2024
10.8 bn ≈
2025
10.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.6 bn
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-5.6 bn
2024
-9.5 bn
2025
-8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
8.0 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
8.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
11.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
60.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
60.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
7.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
67.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
43.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
38.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
24.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
31.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
40.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
87.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
67.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-4.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
10.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
15.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
13.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
126.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
81.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
42 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
270 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
105 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
207 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
329.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
325.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
30.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
7.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
7.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
24.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 53 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

211.28 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 329.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
329.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
30.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
24.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 23 Oct 2026
verified 3058derived 223

Score by group

  • Valuation15
  • Balance sheet84
  • Quality80
  • Growth61
  • Returns54

Estimated value range

Low
107.09
USD per share
Mid
126.56
USD per share
High
155.81
USD per share
Price: 211.28 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -40.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -66.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 74.12 – 211.95 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)140.06 – 211.95 (Mid 168.10)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 14.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)74.12 – 99.67 (Mid 85.01)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Cigarettes (SIC 2111)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 53/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality24.8%60 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality126.9%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.6%71 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth7.7%51 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.2x100 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet10.5x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x19 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation30.8x0 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.4x0 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation4.1%52 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.8%40 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns67.7%75 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth61/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation15/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 40.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.3%; net margin 24.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.

The estimated value range is 107.09–155.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 126.56 USD, the price of 211.28 USD leaves a potential of -40.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -66.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 126.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.2x
  • Interest coverage: 10.5x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 67.7%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 30.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 17.4x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.

Versus the vertical median

Cigarettes (SIC 2111) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
30.8x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
vertical median —
P/S
7.6x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+183.3%)
P/B
—
vertical median —
ROE
—
vertical median 6.0%
Net margin
24.8%
vertical median 23.3%
above median (+6.6%)
EBIT margin
38.6%
vertical median 8.3%
above median (+365.4%)
Revenue YoY
7.3%
vertical median -3.1%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
2.8%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PMPhilip Morris International Inc.329.3 bn30.8—24.8%+7.3%+43% / +131%
MOAltria Group, Inc.129.8 bn16.1—34.5%−3.1%+32% / +86%
RLXRLX Technology Inc.2.5 bn16.46.0%23.3%+50.3%−35% / −27%
ISPRIspire Technology Inc.86.6 m——-34.6%−24.7%−39% / −86%
XXII22nd Century Group, Inc.30.0 k—-32.4%-27.0%−27.9%−100% / −100%
BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c.——16.5%30.3%−1.0%+7% / +97%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
130.31
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
229.94
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
345.76
Total return 67% · Per year 67%
3 years
137.02
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
271.04
Total return 38% · Per year 11%
445.97
Total return 124% · Per year 31%
5 years
144.08
Total return -19% · Per year -4%
319.49
Total return 70% · Per year 11%
575.21
Total return 197% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 67.76
  • Net margin± 47.43
  • Annual revenue growth± 37.47
  • Annual dilution± 3.99

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Philip Morris International is an international consumer goods company aiming to move beyond cigarettes through smoke-free products, especially IQOS, ZYN and VEEV. Net revenues were $40.6 billion in fiscal 2025 1, and reached $32.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in smoke-free products, with the IQOS, ZYN and VEEV brands and a broad international presence.
  • Marlboro is the best-selling international cigarette and supports the profitability of the cigarette business.
  • The company has demonstrated pricing power and operating profit growth in recent periods.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on cigarette volumes, which are declining in many markets, remains a structural vulnerability.
  • Smoke-free products are less predictable in demand than cigarettes, making results more volatile.
  • Impairments and losses on investments, such as the RBH investment, periodically affect reported results.

Opportunities

  • Expanding IQOS and ZYN into new markets could accelerate growth in smoke-free products.
  • Developing the oral nicotine category in the U.S. could bring new sources of revenue.
  • The Aspeya wellness unit could, over time, open areas outside the tobacco sector.

Threats

  • Stricter regulation of smoke-free products could limit their sale and communication.
  • Illicit trade and counterfeiting could reduce legal cigarette sales.
  • Competitors that bypass regulations could create an unfair competitive environment.

Risks

  • Restrictive regulationhigh

    Bans or restrictions on smoke-free products could materially affect the company's growth strategy.

  • Decline in cigarette consumptionmedium

    Falling consumption in many markets could reduce revenue and cash flow from the core business.

  • Litigation and settlementsmedium

    The Canadian litigation and other cases could lead to impairments or significant additional charges.

  • Currency risklow

    Changes in exchange rates could affect reported results, as seen in recent quarters.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If smoke-free products keep growing in volume and market share, the company could reduce its dependence on cigarettes.
  • Pricing power in cigarettes has supported margins, which could fund investment in new categories.
  • A presence in many markets and strong brands could support long-term growth.

What would break the thesis

  • If regulation tightens, growth in smoke-free products could slow considerably.
  • Continued decline in cigarette consumption could erode the core revenue faster than expected.
  • Higher commercial spending in the U.S. could reduce segment profitability if market share does not consolidate.

What to watch

  • Development of HTU and ZYN volumes in the U.S.Q4 2026
  • First-quarter results under the new reported segmentsQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company, incorporated in Virginia and listed on the New York Stock Exchange, mainly sells cigarettes and smoke-free products including heat-not-burn, nicotine pouch and e-vapor products 1. Marlboro, the world's best-selling international cigarette, accounted for about 43% of 2025 cigarette shipment volume 1. Since 2008 the company has invested over $16 billion in smoke-free products, and acquired Swedish Match in November 2022 1.

From January 1, 2026, the company operates two business units, International and U.S., and its four geographic segments were replaced by International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles and U.S. 2. Smoke-free products accounted for more than 40% of net revenues in the third quarter of 2026 3.

The wellness unit Aspeya focuses mainly on oral consumer wellness products, though revenue from cannabinoids is expected to be negligible in the near to medium term 1.

Market context

Cigarette consumption continues to decline in many markets due to taxes, restrictions and illicit trade 1. Growth depends on adult smokers converting to smoke-free products, a process that may be harder to predict than the cigarette business 1.

Trends

  • Smoker conversion to smoke-free productstailwind

    If adult smokers keep moving to smoke-free products, volume growth could offset the long-term decline in cigarettes.

  • Tighter regulationheadwind

    Restrictions on advertising, flavors, packaging and access could limit the commercialization of smoke-free products and cigarettes alike.

  • Higher cigarette pricesmixed

    Higher cigarette prices supported revenue in the third quarter of 2026, but could accelerate consumer trade-down to cheaper products.

  • Demand for oral nicotine in the U.S.mixed

    Growth in the U.S. nicotine pouch category offers opportunities, but competition and high commercial spending could reduce margins.

Competitive position

The company operates in a highly competitive environment, competing on product quality, brand recognition, innovation, price and marketing 1. Competitors include Altria Group, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco and Imperial Brands, along with new market entrants and state-owned enterprises in some countries 1.

Some competitors have different profit and regulatory objectives, and some may be less exposed to currency changes; certain market participants also circumvent applicable regulations 1.

  • Altria Group, Inc.MO

    Direct competitor in the U.S. and former partner in IQOS distribution.

  • British American Tobacco plc

    Global competitor in cigarettes and smoke-free products, primarily listed outside the U.S.

  • Japan Tobacco Inc.

    International competitor, also active in heated products, listed outside the U.S.

  • Imperial Brands plc

    International tobacco competitor, listed outside the U.S.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Philip Morris International Inc. · 06 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Philip Morris International Inc. · 23 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Philip Morris International Inc. · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.