olivLaw · US equity research
Altria Group, Inc. MO
Cigarettes · SIC 2111 · Vertical: Cigarettes (SIC 2111)
Altria Group (MO), the largest US cigarette maker through PM USA, is steering toward smoke-free products such as on! nicotine pouches and NJOY e-vapor while its smokeable business shrinks. In the first half of 2026 adjusted EPS rose 4.9% to $2.80, and management narrowed full-year guidance to $5.61-5.72.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) stock was 78.01 USD (+1.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 129.8 bn USD, P/E 16.1 on diluted EPS of 4.85 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.50%, beta -0.22, 52-week range 54.72–78.03 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.1 bn USD (+1.0% YoY), net income of 2.5 bn USD (+6.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.51 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 70.25 – 78.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 11.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 71.05 / 69.12
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.90 / 1.63
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.9% | −1.1% | +16.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.0% | −0.5% | +14.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.2% | +4.4% | +6.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +35.3% | +12.3% | +23.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +36.1% | +13.5% | +22.6 pp | −34.7% |
| 3 years | +91.8% | +76.4% | +15.4 pp | −26.8% |
| 5 years | +72.6% | +63.7% | +8.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Gross profit | 3.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Operating income | 2.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 73.0 m | 71.0 m | 71.0 m ≈ | 70.0 m ≈ | 54.0 m | 56.0 m | 56.0 m ≈ | 60.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 2.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Income tax | -262.0 m | 606.0 m | 740.0 m | 700.0 m | 396.0 m | 676.0 m | 631.0 m | 776.0 m |
| Net income | 3.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.79 ≈ | 0.63 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.67 ≈ | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.51 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 205.0 m ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 719.0 m ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 47.0 m | 38.0 m | 32.0 m ≈ | 54.0 m ≈ | 92.0 m | 93.0 m | 57.0 m ≈ | 109.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 310.0 m | 326.0 m | 274.0 m ≈ | 112.0 m ≈ | 288.0 m | 280.0 m | 55.0 m ≈ | 400.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 66 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 7.8, median 14.1, max 107.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.4 bn | 25.1 bn | 26.2 bn | 26.0 bn | 25.1 bn | 24.5 bn | 24.0 bn | 23.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −0.8% | −1.0% | +4.2% | −0.5% | −3.5% | −2.4% | −1.9% | −3.1% |
| Net income | 7.0 bn | -1.3 bn | 4.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 11.3 bn | 6.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | −31.9% | −118.6% | unavailable | −44.6% | +132.9% | +41.0% | +38.5% | −38.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.68 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 4.57 | 6.54 | 4.12 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −30.7% | −119.0% | unavailable | −44.2% | +138.1% | +43.3% | +43.1% | −37.0% |
| net % | 27.5% | -5.1% | 17.1% | 9.5% | 23.0% | 33.2% | 46.9% | 29.8% |
| Free cash flow | 8.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 24.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 19.7 bn USD
- Equity
- -3.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 35.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.65x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 19.8%
- FCF margin
- 39.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.2 bn | 26.0 bn | 25.1 bn | 24.5 bn | 24.0 bn | 23.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 13.0 bn | 14.0 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.3 bn | 14.4 bn | 14.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 131.0 m | 145.0 m | 162.0 m | 220.0 m | 208.0 m | 195.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 10.9 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.9 bn | 11.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 9.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 257.0 m | 244.0 m | 226.0 m | 272.0 m | 286.0 m | 266.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 11.1 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 12.1 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 11.5 bn ≈ | 10.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 6.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 10.9 bn | 13.7 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 11.3 bn | 6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.40 | 1.34 | 3.19 | 4.57 | 6.54 | 4.12 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.40 | 3.52 | 3.68 | 3.84 | 4.00 | 4.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 7.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.2 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.6 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.4 bn | 13.7 bn | 13.0 bn | 11.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 47.4 bn | 39.5 bn | 37.0 bn | 38.6 bn | 35.2 bn | 35.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 380.0 m | 449.0 m | 552.0 m | 582.0 m | 700.0 m | 750.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 28.0 bn | 26.9 bn | 25.1 bn | 25.1 bn | 23.4 bn | 24.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.1 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | 11.3 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 44.4 bn | 41.1 bn | 40.9 bn | 42.1 bn | 37.4 bn | 38.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.9 bn | -1.6 bn | -3.9 bn | -3.5 bn | -2.2 bn | -3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.4 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 231.0 m | 169.0 m | 205.0 m | 196.0 m | 142.0 m | 216.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 8.2 bn ≈ | 8.2 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | 8.6 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -143.0 m | 1.2 bn | 782.0 m | -1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | -341.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -5.4 bn | -10.0 bn | -9.5 bn | -8.4 bn | -11.5 bn | -7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 60 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 129.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation53
- Returns78
- Quality100
- Balance sheet62
- Growth30
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 54.67 – 104.63 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)61.16 – 104.63 (Mid 77.58)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 10.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -2.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Dividend discount (DDM)54.67 – 73.52 (Mid 62.71)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 60/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 34.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 111.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.9% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 63 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.1x | 63 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.3x | 16 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.0% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.3% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 78.4% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth30/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns78/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Altria Group, Inc. (MO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.1%; net margin 34.5%; net debt/EBITDA 1.8x.
The estimated value range is 57.91–89.08 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 70.14 USD, the price of 78.01 USD leaves a potential of -10.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -11.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 34.5%
- FCF conversion: 111.8%
- Interest coverage: 9.4x
- FCF yield: 7.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.5%
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 13.3x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.
Versus the vertical median
Cigarettes (SIC 2111) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | 329.3 bn | 30.8 | — | 24.8% | +7.3% | +34% / +126% |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | 129.8 bn | 16.1 | — | 34.5% | −3.1% | +36% / +92% |
| RLXRLX Technology Inc. | 2.5 bn | 16.4 | 6.0% | 23.3% | +50.3% | −35% / −27% |
| ISPRIspire Technology Inc. | 86.6 m | — | — | -34.6% | −24.7% | −39% / −86% |
| XXII22nd Century Group, Inc. | 30.0 k | — | -32.4% | -27.0% | −27.9% | −100% / −100% |
| BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c. | — | — | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.17 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 76.60 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 115.76 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 36.23 Total return -42% · Per year -17% | 72.85 Total return 9% · Per year 3% | 121.68 Total return 76% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 30.41 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 69.29 Total return 15% · Per year 3% | 127.90 Total return 98% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 18.21
- Net margin± 12.75
- Annual revenue growth± 11.22
- Annual dilution± 1.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Altria Group (MO), the largest US cigarette maker through PM USA, is steering toward smoke-free products such as on! nicotine pouches and NJOY e-vapor while its smokeable business shrinks. In the first half of 2026 adjusted EPS rose 4.9% to $2.80, and management narrowed full-year guidance to $5.61-5.72. 123
SWOT
Strengths
- Marlboro has been the largest-selling cigarette brand in the US for over five decades, and PM USA is described as the most profitable US cigarette maker.
- The company has strong distribution, and Helix has expanded the on! PLUS range to a large number of stores across the US.
- Altria maintains high operating margins and a program returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Weaknesses
- Cigarette and MST volumes are falling year after year, and premium brands face pressure from discount competitors.
- NJOY investments were impaired because of illicit competition, which shows the vulnerability of the e-vapor segment.
- The company relies heavily on the US market, which limits geographic diversification of revenue.
Opportunities
- If Helix and on! PLUS keep expanding, the pouch category could offset part of the decline in smokeable products.
- The efficiency program could free resources for investment in new smoke-free products.
- If enforcement against illicit e-vapor becomes more effective, authorized products could regain market share.
Threats
- Inflation pressure on lower-income consumers could raise the share of cheaper brands and reduce revenue from premium products.
- Illicit trade in nicotine products and counterfeits can erode legal sales and reduce tax revenue for governments.
- FDA regulation and authorization processes can delay launches of new products or restrict sales of existing ones.
Risks
- Decline in cigarette volumeshigh
Continued falls in cigarette volumes could materially affect revenue and profitability of the company's core segment.
- Illicit e-vapor competitionhigh
Products without FDA authorization keep spreading, and NJOY has faced impairment and import bans related to NJOY ACE, which could prolong the difficulty.
- Pressure from discount brandsmedium
Consumers trading down to cheaper brands may limit the company's ability to raise premium prices to offset lost volume.
- Tobacco litigationmedium
Health and other litigation charges have been significant in 2026, and the outcome of certain cases could affect cash flows.
- Restructuring and investment costslow
Consolidating USSTC facilities and investing in contract manufacturing could raise costs and delay expected efficiency benefits.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If nicotine pouches keep gaining share and Helix extends its range, the company could shift part of its consumer base toward revenue less dependent on cigarettes.
- PM USA's high profitability and the ability to return capital to shareholders provide financial room for investment in new categories.
- If the efficiency savings are realized, they could support EPS growth even while volumes decline.
What would break the thesis
- The structural decline in cigarette and MST volumes could continue faster than expected, and pouch growth may not offset the losses.
- Illicit e-vapor competition and discount pressure could limit pricing and margins, especially if enforcement remains slow.
- Litigation, higher capital spending and regulatory risk could reduce financial flexibility and delay capital returns to shareholders.
What to watch
- Pace of decline in industry cigarette volumesQ3 2026
- Delivery of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.61-5.72next 10-K
- Progress of enforcement against illicit e-vapor and decisions on NJOY ACE2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
For 2025 the company reported three segments: smokeable products, oral tobacco products and e-vapor products, with Horizon, Helix International and other R&D in the all other category 1. In the second quarter of 2026 Helix expanded on! PLUS to approximately 120,000 stores nationwide, and the company plans new flavors in the fourth quarter 3.
Segments
Smokeable products
The segment includes PM USA cigarettes and Middleton cigars. Cigarette volume declined in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 PM USA domestic cigarette shipments fell by an estimated 4.5% versus the prior year, adjusted for trade inventory movements 12. The company reported that Marlboro Cowboy Cut drew strong interest among premium smokers, while Basic gained traction in discount 3.
Market context
The US cigarette market continues to decline year over year. Management estimates that adjusted domestic cigarette industry volume fell 5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus the prior year, with moderating decline driven mainly by reduced cross-category movement tied to illicit e-vapor products 2. The discount retail share of the cigarette category reached 33.8% in the second quarter of 2026 2.
Nicotine pouches are the fastest-growing category. In the fourth quarter of 2025 they represented 56.9% of the US oral category 1. Economic strain and volatile energy prices have increased pressure on discretionary income, which could accelerate the shift toward cheaper products 2.
Trends
- Pressure on discretionary incomeheadwind
Inflation and high prices for essentials have constrained spending by lower-income consumers, who may trade down to discount brands. If the pressure persists, the discount share could keep rising at the expense of premium brands 12.
- Growth of nicotine pouchestailwind
on! and Helix are expanding quickly in distribution, which could offset part of the decline in MST and cigarettes if the pace holds 23.
- Illicit e-vapor and enforcementheadwind
Flavored disposable e-vapor products dominate much of the category and enforcement has proceeded more slowly than expected. This led to an impairment of NJOY goodwill and could continue to weigh on the legitimate category 12.
- Supply costs and tariffsmixed
Volatility in tobacco, raw material and logistics costs could affect prices and availability. The company said it does not expect tariffs to have a material impact on 2026 costs based on available information 12.
Competitive position
Competition runs on quality, taste, price, innovation and distribution. The main pressure comes from discount brands, including imports, that are not parties to the settlement agreements and therefore do not carry the same payment obligations 1. Competition in pouches and e-vapor has intensified, and unauthorized products have limited the growth of legal products 12.
Illicit products and parallel trade undermine the market. Counterfeits, tax diversion and untaxed online sales can erode legal brand share and government revenue, which could prompt further measures against the whole industry 1.
- Philip Morris InternationalPM
Global competitor in cigarettes and heated tobacco with major activity outside the US; the supplied sources do not detail its position in the US market.
- Japan Tobacco
Partner in Horizon Innovations for heated tobacco products and a potential competitor in smoke-free categories.
- Discount cigarette producers
Companies that are not parties to the settlement agreements and sell lower-priced brands that compete directly with Marlboro on price.
- Illicit e-vapor sellers
Sellers of flavored products without FDA authorization that have grown rapidly and reduced the share of legal NJOY products.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Altria Group, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Altria Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Altria Group, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.