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olivLaw · US equity research

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD

Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics · SIC 2840 · Vertical: Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840)

112.03USD+2.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) is a maker of household, personal care and specialty consumer products, anchored by the ARM & HAMMER brand. In the first six months of 2026 net sales were 2999.3 million USD, up 0.9%, while organic growth in the second quarter reached 5.8%. The company raised its 2026 outlook but still depends on a few power brands and one large customer.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) stock was 112.03 USD (+2.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 26.4 bn USD, P/E 34.5 on diluted EPS of 3.25 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.09%, beta 0.03, 52-week range 81.60–112.03 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+1.0% YoY), net income of 212.2 m USD (+16.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.89 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
26.4 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.5
Diluted EPS TTM 3.25 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.90%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.09%
DPS 12m 1.22
Beta (2y)
0.03
Volatility (1y) 22%
52-week range
81.60112.03

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.6
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
97.30 – 112.22
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.99 · band width 14.2%
SMA 50 / 200
99.86 / 98.02
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.02 / 2.49
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+17.1%−1.1%+18.2 pp—
3 months+8.1%−0.5%+8.5 pp—
6 months+18.0%+4.4%+13.6 pp—
Year to date+33.6%+12.3%+21.3 pp—
1 year+29.4%+13.5%+15.8 pp+5.5%
3 years+29.1%+76.4%−47.3 pp+9.0%
5 years+26.2%+63.7%−37.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−13.8%
23 Feb 2026 → 11 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−32.1%
14 Jan 2022 → 07 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+4.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.6 bn USD
+1.0% YoY
Net income
212.2 m USD
+16.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.89
+18.7% YoY
net / operating
13.2% / 18.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.6 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn1.6 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn
Cost of revenue874.1 m807.5 m859.3 m871.2 m890.4 m787.9 m836.1 m852.7 m
Gross profit707.9 m659.6 m647.0 m714.4 m753.8 m681.4 m693.9 m749.4 m
Research & development40.6 m32.8 m35.8 m36.2 m40.8 m31.6 m33.9 m36.4 m
SG&A243.3 m227.7 m228.2 m256.9 m275.5 m251.0 m252.2 m267.3 m
Operating income256.7 m295.3 m261.7 m254.6 m266.0 m291.0 m276.4 m291.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation61.7 m60.9 m56.6 m64.1 m65.8 m62.9 m——
Interest expense23.4 m23.3 m23.5 m23.8 m24.6 m24.0 m24.2 m24.1 m
Pre-tax income253.1 m282.1 m250.5 m236.2 m188.1 m272.6 m255.9 m271.9 m
Income tax63.9 m62.0 m59.5 m54.0 m44.6 m56.3 m53.1 m59.7 m
Net income189.2 m220.1 m191.0 m182.2 m143.5 m216.3 m202.8 m212.2 m
Diluted EPS0.76 ≈0.890.780.750.60 ≈0.910.850.89
Operating cash flow292.3 m185.7 m230.8 m ≈435.5 m ≈363.4 m174.8 m286.8 m ≈379.6 m ≈
Capex54.6 m16.5 m22.5 m ≈28.2 m ≈55.2 m31.9 m29.9 m ≈29.8 m ≈
Dividends paid69.6 m72.4 m72.6 m ≈71.4 m ≈70.8 m72.9 m72.9 m ≈73.8 m ≈
Share repurchases0——300.0 m ≈300.0 m——37.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 16.4, median 29.6, max 55.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue4.1 bn4.4 bn4.9 bn5.2 bn5.4 bn5.9 bn6.1 bn6.2 bn
Revenue YoY+9.8%+5.1%+12.3%+6.0%+3.6%+9.2%+4.1%+1.6%
Net income568.6 m615.9 m785.9 m827.5 m413.9 m755.6 m585.3 m736.8 m
Net income YoY−23.5%+8.3%+27.6%+5.3%−50.0%+82.6%−22.5%+25.9%
Diluted EPS2.272.443.123.321.683.052.373.02
Diluted EPS YoY−21.7%+7.5%+27.9%+6.4%−49.4%+81.5%−22.3%+27.4%
net %13.7%14.1%16.1%15.9%7.7%12.9%9.6%11.9%
Free cash flow703.2 m790.8 m891.4 m875.0 m706.4 m807.1 m976.4 m1.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
409.0 m USD
Financial debt
2.2 bn USD
Net debt
1.8 bn USD
Equity
4.0 bn USD
Total assets
8.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.55x
Current ratio
1.07x
ROE
17.6%
ROA
8.3%
FCF margin
17.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.9 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
122.4 m
2024
139.7 m
2025
145.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
889.8 m
2024
927.8 m
2025
988.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
807.1 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
225.2 m
2024
239.1 m
2025
247.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.3 bn ≈
2024
1.0 bn ≈
2025
1.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
110.9 m
2024
95.0 m
2025
95.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
967.4 m
2024
756.3 m
2025
956.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
211.8 m
2024
171.0 m
2025
220.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
755.6 m
2024
585.3 m
2025
736.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.05
2024
2.37
2025
3.02

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
247.6 m
2024
246.9 m
2025
244.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.09
2024
1.13
2025
1.18

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
344.5 m
2024
964.1 m
2025
409.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
526.9 m
2024
600.8 m
2025
593.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
613.3 m
2024
613.3 m
2025
534.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
927.7 m
2024
931.7 m
2025
822.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
3.3 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
8.6 bn
2024
8.9 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
630.6 m
2024
705.1 m
2025
732.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
3.9 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.9 bn †
2024
4.4 bn †
2025
4.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
223.5 m
2024
179.8 m
2025
122.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
807.1 m ≈
2024
976.4 m ≈
2025
1.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-234.3 m
2024
-183.3 m
2025
-616.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-725.6 m
2024
-343.4 m
2025
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
266.5 m
2024
277.0 m
2025
287.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
300.1 m
2024
0
2025
900.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
33.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
25.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
27.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
21.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
46.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
22.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
18.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
17.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
37.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
27.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
146.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
136.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
87.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
36 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
86 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
26.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
28.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
34.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
25.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
4.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
25.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

112.03 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 26.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
26.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
17.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 3120derived 215

Score by group

  • Balance sheet71
  • Valuation14
  • Quality88
  • Growth70
  • Returns60

Estimated value range

Low
37.26
USD per share
Mid
45.49
USD per share
High
58.39
USD per share
Price: 112.03 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -59.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -146.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.51 – 95.93 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)59.01 – 95.93 (Mid 73.20)
    WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 1.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 23.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)15.51 – 20.85 (Mid 17.79)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.3%94 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality12.4%67 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality136.5%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.9%41 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth21.6%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.3x78 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet11.6x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x13 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation34.5x0 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation20.5x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.0%50 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.4%34 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns27.5%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (CHD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.6%; net margin 12.4%; ROE 17.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.

The estimated value range is 37.26–58.39 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 45.49 USD, the price of 112.03 USD leaves a potential of -59.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -146.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.3%
  • FCF conversion: 136.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 21.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.3x
  • Interest coverage: 11.6x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 27.5%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 34.5x
  • EV/EBITDA: 20.5x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
34.5x
vertical median 42.9x
below median (−19.6%)
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
vertical median —
P/S
4.2x
vertical median 4.4x
at median
P/B
5.9x
vertical median 7.0x
below median (−15.9%)
ROE
17.8%
vertical median 10.5%
above median (+69.3%)
Net margin
12.4%
vertical median 6.1%
above median (+104.1%)
EBIT margin
18.0%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+104.0%)
Revenue YoY
1.6%
vertical median 4.6%
below median (−66.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.1%
vertical median 2.2%
below median (−51.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PGPROCTER & GAMBLE Co387.8 bn25.229.4%18.2%+3.3%+13% / +9%
ECLEcolab Inc.88.4 bn42.920.7%12.0%+2.2%+14% / +64%
CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.26.4 bn34.517.8%12.4%+1.6%+29% / +29%
SCLStepan Company1.6 bn374.70.4%0.2%+7.0%+56% / −14%
BYAHPark Ha Biological Technology Co., Ltd.56.5 m—-885.8%-965.0%+6.0%−98% / unavailable
WNWMeiwu Technology Company Limited30.8 m—-34.2%-262.5%+4,368.0%−98% / −100%
ULUnilever PLC——53.3%18.7%−3.8%−2% / +25%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CHD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
67.17
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
118.72
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
178.80
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
65.70
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
130.61
Total return 20% · Per year 6%
215.91
Total return 97% · Per year 25%
5 years
64.26
Total return -38% · Per year -9%
143.70
Total return 35% · Per year 6%
260.72
Total return 141% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 32.65
  • Net margin± 22.86
  • Annual revenue growth± 18.69
  • Annual dilution± 1.92

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) is a maker of household, personal care and specialty consumer products, anchored by the ARM & HAMMER brand. In the first six months of 2026 net sales were 2999.3 million USD, up 0.9% 2, while organic growth in the second quarter reached 5.8% 3. The company raised its 2026 outlook but still depends on a few power brands and one large customer 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A portfolio of power brands with strong recognition gives a solid base for sales and pricing 1.
  • Strong operating cash flow allows investment, acquisitions and shareholder returns despite market pressure 13.
  • Organic growth in the second quarter shows that innovation and marketing investment can support volumes 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on one large customer, which accounts for a significant share of sales, exposes the company to changes in that customer's strategy 1.
  • Margins can be reduced by raw material and transport costs, especially when prices cannot be fully passed on to customers 12.
  • Exposure to the mature US market limits growth potential unless offset by innovation or acquisitions 1.

Opportunities

  • International expansion and acquisitions in Consumer International could accelerate long-term growth 1.
  • Growth in e-commerce and digital brands offers another growth channel if cost efficiency is maintained 13.
  • If oral care and acne brands keep gaining share, they could extend into new categories 3.

Threats

  • Competition from private label and digital brands can pressure prices and shelf space 1.
  • Trade tensions and tariffs can raise import costs and reduce demand if prices rise 21.
  • Geopolitical risk in the Middle East may disrupt supply chains and shipping, with cost effects 2.

Risks

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    One large customer represents a significant share of sales, and a change in its strategy or shelf allocation could affect results 1.

  • Raw material cost pressuremedium

    Higher prices for surfactants, packaging and energy could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.

  • Private label competitionmedium

    Retailers are expanding their own brands, which can limit pricing and share for the company's brands 1.

  • Tariffs and trade policymedium

    Changes in tariffs and uncertainty over refunds could affect costs and financial results 2.

  • Integration of acquisitionslow

    Integrating recently acquired brands may create added costs and affect operating margins 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Organic growth stayed strong in the second quarter of 2026, and the company raised its outlook for sales, EPS and cash flow 3.
  • The power brand portfolio and recent acquisitions such as Touchland and Miss Mouth's could support medium-term growth 12.
  • If innovation and online expansion continue, the company could gain further share across several categories 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Overall sales growth remains modest, and the outlook for reported net sales is close to flat, which shows how hard growth is 3.
  • Dependence on one large customer and on mature US categories exposes the company to rapid changes in demand or shelf policy 1.
  • Tariff and transport cost pressures could reduce margins if they cannot be offset through productivity or pricing 23.

What to watch

  • Organic sales growth and gross margin versus the updated outlookQ3 2026
  • Recovery of IEEPA tariff refunds and how the proceeds are used in consumer-facing activitiessecond half 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

In 2025 the company completed the Touchland acquisition, paying 656.0 million USD net of cash at closing, and sold the VitaFusion and L'il Critters brands at year end 1. It also exited the Flawless, Spinbrush and Waterpik showerhead businesses, which generated about 118.0 million USD of annual sales 1. In July 2026 it acquired Miss Mouth's, paying 300.0 million USD in cash at closing 2.

Segments

Consumer Domestic

This is the largest segment, about 77% of consolidated net sales in 2025, and includes all seven power brands 1. It covers household products such as laundry detergents and cat litter, as well as personal care from toothpaste to acne treatments 1.

Market context

The market is marked by intense competition, with private label brands and retailers expanding their offerings and digitally native brands entering quickly 1. The company says its brands gained share in the second quarter of 2026, supported by innovation and marketing investment 3.

Trends

  • Tariff and cost pressuresheadwind

    US trade policy and Middle East tensions have raised manufacturing and transport costs, and the Supreme Court ruled certain tariffs unlawful without setting a clear refund process 2. The company says it can offset these pressures through productivity and selective pricing 23.

  • Innovation in oral care and acnetailwind

    THERABREATH launched a new toothpaste line and rinse products, and HERO and ARM & HAMMER introduced new lines, which management expects could account for about half of organic growth in 2026 3.

  • Shifts in consumer and retailer behaviourheadwind

    Younger consumers are more often shifting to private label and new brands, and large retailers may reduce shelf space for established brands 1. This could pressure sales and margins if the company does not adapt quickly.

Competitive position

The company competes with large consumer goods makers such as Procter & Gamble, Clorox, Colgate-Palmolive and Unilever, which have greater financial resources 1. In personal care, digital brands and private labels are increasingly present and may have lower cost bases 1.

In the SPD segment competition is intense and influenced by capacity utilisation and raw material costs, with players such as Cargill, Solvay and Genesis Alkali 1. The company could lose share if rivals respond faster to pricing or innovation pressure.

  • Procter & GamblePG

    Large competitor in laundry, personal care and household products, with greater financial resources 1.

  • The Clorox CompanyCLX

    Direct competitor in cleaning and household products, present in categories close to the company's own 1.

  • Colgate-PalmoliveCL

    Competes in oral care, where it meets the THERABREATH and ARM & HAMMER brands 1.

  • KenvueKVUE

    Competitor in health and personal care, including skin and oral treatment categories 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Church & Dwight Co., Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Church & Dwight Co., Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Church & Dwight Co., Inc. · 31 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.