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olivLaw · US equity research

The Procter & Gamble Company PG

Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics · SIC 2840 · Vertical: Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840)

167.32USD+3.25% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Procter & Gamble is a global consumer goods group whose products are sold in about 180 countries and territories, and in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales reached 23.3 billion dollars. Organic sales growth of 4% and core EPS of 2.00 dollars show solid execution, but the company also confirmed a sizeable commodity cost headwind for the full year.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) stock was 167.32 USD (+3.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 387.8 bn USD, P/E 25.2 on diluted EPS of 6.64 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.56%, beta 0.09, 52-week range 138.04–167.32 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 23.3 bn USD (+4.0% YoY), net income of 4.7 bn USD (−0.4% YoY), diluted EPS 1.97 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
387.8 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2
Diluted EPS TTM 6.64 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.97%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.56%
DPS 12m 4.29
Beta (2y)
0.09
Volatility (1y) 21%
52-week range
138.04167.32

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
68.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
150.07 – 167.33
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 10.9%
SMA 50 / 200
151.11 / 149.21
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.81 / 3.46
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.6%−1.1%+15.7 pp—
3 months+14.0%−0.5%+14.4 pp—
6 months+13.1%+4.4%+8.7 pp—
Year to date+16.8%+12.3%+4.4 pp—
1 year+13.7%+13.5%+0.1 pp+6.3%
3 years+11.5%+76.4%−64.9 pp+15.9%
5 years+14.6%+63.7%−49.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.2%
27 Feb 2026 → 03 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−24.6%
05 Jan 2022 → 10 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
23.3 bn USD
+4.0% YoY
Net income
4.7 bn USD
−0.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.97
+1.0% YoY
net / operating
20.3% / 25.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue21.9 bn19.8 bn20.9 bn22.4 bn22.2 bn21.2 bn21.2 bn23.3 bn
Cost of revenue10.4 bn9.7 bn10.6 bn10.9 bn10.8 bn10.7 bn10.9 bn11.7 bn
SG&A5.7 bn5.5 bn5.9 bn5.6 bn6.0 bn5.9 bn6.3 bn5.7 bn
Operating income5.7 bn4.6 bn4.4 bn5.9 bn5.4 bn4.6 bn4.0 bn5.9 bn
Depreciation & amortisation706.0 m690.0 m723.0 m761.0 m803.0 m785.0 m812.0 m810.0 m
Interest expense240.0 m217.0 m212.0 m197.0 m220.0 m223.0 m236.0 m223.0 m
Income tax1.2 bn868.0 m895.0 m1.3 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn852.0 m1.3 bn
Net income4.6 bn3.8 bn3.6 bn4.8 bn4.3 bn3.9 bn3.0 bn4.7 bn
Diluted EPS1.881.541.48 ≈1.951.781.631.26 ≈1.97
Operating cash flow—3.7 bn ≈5.0 bn5.4 bn5.0 bn ≈4.0 bn ≈5.1 bn5.8 bn
Capex—859.0 m ≈996.0 m1.2 bn1.2 bn ≈1.0 bn ≈1.0 bn1.4 bn
Dividends paid—2.4 bn ≈2.6 bn2.5 bn2.5 bn ≈2.5 bn ≈2.6 bn2.6 bn
Share repurchases—1.4 bn ≈700.0 m1.3 bn2.3 bn ≈625.0 m ≈875.0 m1.3 bn

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 60 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 15.3, median 24.6, max 82.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue67.7 bn71.0 bn76.1 bn80.2 bn82.0 bn84.0 bn84.3 bn87.0 bn
Revenue YoY+1.3%+4.8%+7.3%+5.3%+2.3%+2.5%+0.3%+3.3%
Net income3.9 bn13.0 bn14.3 bn14.7 bn14.7 bn14.9 bn16.0 bn16.0 bn
Net income YoY−60.0%+234.3%+9.8%+3.0%−0.6%+1.5%+7.4%+0.5%
Diluted EPS1.434.965.505.815.906.026.516.62
Diluted EPS YoY−61.0%+246.9%+10.9%+5.6%+1.5%+2.0%+8.1%+1.7%
net %5.8%18.4%18.8%18.4%17.9%17.7%19.0%18.4%
Free cash flow11.9 bn14.3 bn15.6 bn13.6 bn13.8 bn16.5 bn14.0 bn15.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Cash
9.9 bn USD
Financial debt
34.1 bn USD
Net debt
24.2 bn USD
Equity
54.3 bn USD
Total assets
126.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.63x
Current ratio
0.68x
ROE
30.1%
ROA
12.7%
FCF margin
17.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
84.0 bn
2025
84.3 bn
2026
87.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
40.8 bn
2025
41.2 bn
2026
43.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
43.2 bn ≈
2025
43.1 bn ≈
2026
43.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived

Research & development
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

SG&A
2024
23.3 bn
2025
22.7 bn
2026
23.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Operating income
2024
18.5 bn
2025
20.5 bn
2026
19.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.8 bn
2026
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
21.4 bn ≈
2025
23.3 bn ≈
2026
22.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
925.0 m
2025
907.0 m
2026
877.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
18.8 bn
2025
20.2 bn
2026
20.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Income tax
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.1 bn
2026
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Net income
2024
14.9 bn
2025
16.0 bn
2026
16.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
6.02
2025
6.51
2026
6.62

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.5 bn
2026
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
3.83
2025
4.08
2026
4.26

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
9.5 bn
2025
9.6 bn
2026
9.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Receivables
2024
6.1 bn
2025
6.2 bn
2026
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Inventories
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.6 bn
2026
8.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Current assets
2024
24.7 bn
2025
25.4 bn
2026
26.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
22.2 bn
2025
23.9 bn
2026
25.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
40.3 bn
2025
41.7 bn
2026
41.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
22.0 bn
2025
21.9 bn
2026
21.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2024
122.4 bn
2025
125.2 bn
2026
126.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
15.4 bn
2025
15.2 bn
2026
16.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
7.2 bn
2025
9.5 bn
2026
11.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
25.3 bn
2025
25.0 bn
2026
22.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
33.6 bn
2025
36.1 bn
2026
38.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
71.8 bn
2025
72.9 bn
2026
72.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2024
50.6 bn
2025
52.3 bn
2026
54.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
19.8 bn
2025
17.8 bn
2026
19.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Capex
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.8 bn
2026
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
16.5 bn ≈
2025
14.0 bn ≈
2026
15.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-3.5 bn
2025
-3.8 bn
2026
-4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-14.9 bn
2025
-14.0 bn
2026
-14.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
9.3 bn
2025
9.9 bn
2026
10.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
5.0 bn
2025
6.5 bn
2026
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
3.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
49.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
26.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
22.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
17.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
29.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
20.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
22.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
64.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
67.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
23.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
22.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
19.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
15.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
95.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
86.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
68 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
135 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-40 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
387.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
411.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
24.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
7.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
20.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
25.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 53 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

167.32 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 387.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
387.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
7.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
29.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2925derived 202

Score by group

  • Balance sheet73
  • Valuation22
  • Quality94
  • Growth21
  • Returns64

Estimated value range

Low
68.15
USD per share
Mid
81.98
USD per share
High
103.15
USD per share
Price: 167.32 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -51.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -104.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 55.97 – 131.03 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)80.33 – 131.03 (Mid 99.76)
    WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 16.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 24.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)55.97 – 75.27 (Mid 64.20)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 53/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality20.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality18.2%83 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality95.7%94 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.0%17 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth3.9%26 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.0x85 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet22.0x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation25.2x22 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.9x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.0%49 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.9%56 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns67.1%76 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth21/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation22/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

PROCTER & GAMBLE Co (PG). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 87.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 3.3%; net margin 18.2%; ROE 29.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.

The estimated value range is 68.15–103.15 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 81.98 USD, the price of 167.32 USD leaves a potential of -51.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -104.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 20.0%
  • Net margin: 18.2%
  • FCF conversion: 95.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.0x
  • Interest coverage: 22.0x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 67.1%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 3.9%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 25.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 17.9x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics (SIC 2840) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
25.2x
vertical median 42.9x
below median (−41.2%)
EV/EBITDA
17.9x
vertical median —
P/S
4.4x
vertical median 4.4x
at median
P/B
7.0x
vertical median 5.9x
above median (+18.8%)
ROE
29.4%
vertical median 9.1%
above median (+224.4%)
Net margin
18.2%
vertical median 6.1%
above median (+199.8%)
EBIT margin
22.6%
vertical median 8.8%
above median (+155.5%)
Revenue YoY
3.3%
vertical median 4.1%
below median (−20.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
2.6%
vertical median 1.1%
above median (+135.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PGPROCTER & GAMBLE Co387.8 bn25.229.4%18.2%+3.3%+14% / +11%
ECLEcolab Inc.88.4 bn42.920.7%12.0%+2.2%+14% / +64%
CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.26.4 bn34.517.8%12.4%+1.6%+32% / +16%
SCLStepan Company1.6 bn374.70.4%0.2%+7.0%+56% / −14%
BYAHPark Ha Biological Technology Co., Ltd.56.5 m—-885.8%-965.0%+6.0%−98% / unavailable
WNWMeiwu Technology Company Limited30.8 m—-34.2%-262.5%+4,368.0%−98% / −100%
ULUnilever PLC——53.3%18.7%−3.8%−2% / +25%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
100.38
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
177.68
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
267.93
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
92.59
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
184.86
Total return 19% · Per year 6%
306.77
Total return 94% · Per year 25%
5 years
85.40
Total return -39% · Per year -10%
192.34
Total return 29% · Per year 5%
351.24
Total return 129% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 46.22
  • Net margin± 32.35
  • Annual revenue growth± 27.21
  • Annual dilution± 2.72

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Procter & Gamble is a global consumer goods group whose products are sold in about 180 countries and territories, and in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales reached 23.3 billion dollars 3. Organic sales growth of 4% 3 and core EPS of 2.00 dollars 3 show solid execution, but the company also confirmed a sizeable commodity cost headwind for the full year 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A portfolio of leading brands in many categories, with strong market positions and a global distribution network.
  • Capacity to invest in innovation, research and marketing, supported by continued productivity.
  • Strong cash generation that funds dividends and share repurchase programs.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a few large customers, especially one retail chain that represents a major share of sales.
  • Exposure to currency and raw material costs that can compress margins in periods of inflation.
  • Ongoing restructuring and headcount reduction that can bring costs and operational strain.

Opportunities

  • Growth in digital commerce and direct-to-consumer sales could open new avenues for expansion.
  • Acquisitions such as Thorne could extend the portfolio into segments with growth potential.
  • Emerging markets could support growth if consumer spending in those regions rises.

Threats

  • Competition from private-label brands and discount competitors could pressure prices and margins.
  • Geopolitical tensions and new tariffs could disrupt supply chains and export markets.
  • Changes in tax and regulatory policy across several countries could raise compliance costs.

Risks

  • High commodity and energy costshigh

    The company anticipates a significant cost burden from raw materials, energy and transport in fiscal 2027, which could reduce profitability if not offset by pricing 3.

  • Currency exposurehigh

    Sales made outside the US in many currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements and by currency controls in some countries 1.

  • Customer concentrationmedium

    Dependence on a small number of large distributors can give them negotiating power over prices and payment terms 1.

  • Geopolitical and trade tensionsmedium

    Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, sanctions and tariffs could disrupt production, distribution and access to certain markets 1.

  • Credit access and ratingslow

    A downgrade of the credit rating or disruption in financial markets could raise borrowing costs and reduce financial flexibility 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Dominant brands in many categories and the ability to support pricing through innovation could sustain organic growth if the first quarter trend continues 3.
  • Strong cash generation leaves room for dividends and share repurchases, which could appeal to income-oriented shareowners 3.
  • The Thorne acquisition and expansion in digital channels could add new growth if integration proceeds as planned 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Higher raw material and energy costs could compress margins and limit room to invest in marketing and innovation 3.
  • Competition from private-label and discount brands could force price concessions that lower returns 1.
  • If geopolitical and currency tensions intensify, sales outside the US could come in weaker than management expects 1.

What to watch

  • Development of raw material costs and their effect on marginsQ2 2027
  • Contribution of the Thorne acquisition to total salesQ2 2027
  • Delivery against organic sales and core EPS guidancefiscal 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The business model relies on innovation, research, brand marketing and continued productivity to fund new products and promotion 1. The company is organized into five sector business units and five reportable segments 1. More than 50% of net sales come from outside the United States 1, so results depend on currency movements.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 the company updated its all-in sales guidance to reflect the Thorne acquisition, effective October 1, 2026 3. Organic sales guidance was maintained, and the plan to return cash to shareowners remains substantial 3.

Segments

Fabric & Home Care

This is the largest segment, at about 35% of fiscal 2026 net sales, with brands such as Tide, Ariel, Downy and Cascade 1. The company holds a global leading position with over 35% market share in fabric care in the markets where it competes 1. In the quarter ended September 30, 2026, segment organic sales rose 5% 3.

Market context

The consumer goods market is highly competitive, with global, regional and local competitors as well as retailers' private-label brands 1. The company competes in segments differentiated by price tiers, from super-premium to value, and says it often holds a leadership or significant share position 1. Cost pressures from raw materials, energy and transport can affect margins if they are not offset by pricing and productivity 3.

Sales channels are shifting quickly toward online, social commerce and hard discount stores, which could change consumer preferences and market structure 1. The company says it is responding through innovation and by adapting its distribution model 1.

Trends

  • Rising raw material costsheadwind

    The company expects a commodity cost headwind of about 1.4 billion dollars after tax in fiscal 2027 3. This could reduce margins if prices cannot be passed on fully to customers 3.

  • Digital commerce and new channelsmixed

    Growing consumer preference for online and social shopping is changing distribution and marketing 1. If the company adapts quickly, this shift could support sales over the longer term 1.

  • Thorne acquisitionmixed

    The Thorne acquisition, effective October 1, 2026, could add sales in fiscal 2027, and all-in sales guidance was adjusted accordingly 3. Integrating an acquisition can also bring operational risks 1.

  • Geopolitical and currency tensionsheadwind

    The war between Russia and Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East and currency swings can affect sales, costs and cash flows 1. More than half of sales come from outside the US, which makes currency exposure significant 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with global and local competitors in each category, as well as with retailers' private-label brands 1. Competition centers on prices, promotions, trade terms and innovation, and entry into digital channels is easier for rivals 1. The company says it maintains leading positions through product and brand superiority 1.

Differentiation depends on keeping market positions against lower-priced products and the growth of discount channels 1. Failing to anticipate these shifts could affect results, according to the company's own risk disclosures 1.

  • Unilever

    Global competitor in personal care, home care and food, named among the company's global rivals in its filings.

  • Colgate-PalmoliveCL

    Competitor in oral care and household products, among the company's global rivals.

  • Kimberly-ClarkKMB

    Competitor in paper and diaper categories, relevant to the family and baby care lines.

  • Retailers' private-label brands

    Store-branded products that compete directly with the company's brands across several categories.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Procter & Gamble Company · 04 Aug 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / The Procter & Gamble Company · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Procter & Gamble Company · 22 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.