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olivLaw · US equity research

Core Molding Technologies, Inc. CMT

Plastics Products, NEC · SIC 3089 · Vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

21.05USD−0.52% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Core Molding Technologies makes structural molded parts from thermoplastic and thermoset materials for heavy trucks, powersports, building products and industry, with six plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The company faces weak truck demand but won new contracts worth 25.7 million dollars in the first half of 2026, which could reduce its reliance on cyclical markets.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT) stock was 21.05 USD (−0.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 186.1 m USD, P/E 26.0 on diluted EPS of 0.81 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.60, 52-week range 17.56–28.35 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 90.2 m USD (+54.4% YoY), net income of 1.5 m USD (−19.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.17 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
186.1 m USD
shares as of 02 Nov 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.0
Diluted EPS TTM 0.81 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.85%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.60
Volatility (1y) 43%
52-week range
17.5628.35

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
36.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
20.91 – 24.56
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.04 · band width 16.1%
SMA 50 / 200
23.27 / 23.12
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.55 / -0.35
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.5%−5.9%−4.6 pp—
3 months−13.8%−4.6%−9.2 pp—
6 months−15.7%+0.2%−15.9 pp—
Year to date+5.0%+7.4%−2.4 pp—
1 year+11.6%+8.2%+3.4 pp+31.9%
3 years−17.0%+68.4%−85.5 pp+35.8%
5 years+98.2%+56.5%+41.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−26.7%
20 Apr 2026 → 03 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−56.0%
02 Oct 2023 → 03 Mar 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+14.7%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
90.2 m USD
+54.4% YoY
Net income
1.5 m USD
−19.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.17
−22.7% YoY
net / operating
1.7% / 1.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue62.5 m61.4 m79.2 m58.4 m74.7 m58.6 m62.7 m90.2 m
Cost of revenue52.6 m49.7 m64.9 m48.3 m63.3 m46.6 m50.0 m76.9 m
Gross profit9.9 m11.8 m14.3 m10.1 m11.3 m12.0 m12.7 m13.4 m
SG&A9.0 m8.9 m9.1 m7.6 m7.7 m11.2 m10.4 m11.8 m
Operating income869.0 k2.8 m5.2 m2.6 m3.6 m764.0 k2.3 m1.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation3.4 m3.2 m3.2 m ≈3.1 m ≈2.8 m3.1 m3.2 m ≈2.5 m ≈
Interest expense-94.0 k16.0 k-32.0 k34.0 k-17.0 k86.0 k60.0 k39.0 k
Pre-tax income1.1 m2.9 m5.4 m2.7 m3.7 m795.0 k2.4 m1.7 m
Income tax1.2 m750.0 k1.3 m779.0 k642.0 k190.0 k569.0 k155.0 k
Net income-39.0 k2.2 m4.1 m1.9 m3.1 m605.0 k1.8 m1.5 m
Diluted EPS0.000.250.470.220.360.070.210.17
Operating cash flow5.0 m6.1 m3.5 m ≈4.6 m ≈5.0 m-9.2 m16.3 m ≈-3.7 m ≈
Capex4.5 m1.8 m2.6 m ≈4.9 m ≈8.0 m3.8 m8.3 m ≈7.6 m ≈
Share repurchases1.5 m916.0 k-316.0 k ≈0 ≈2.6 m457.0 k155.0 k ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 78 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 7.9, median 16.9, max 42.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue269.5 m284.3 m222.4 m307.5 m377.4 m357.7 m302.4 m273.8 m
Revenue YoY+66.7%+5.5%−21.8%+38.3%+22.7%−5.2%−15.5%−9.5%
Net income-4.8 m-15.2 m8.2 m4.7 m12.2 m20.3 m13.3 m11.2 m
Net income YoY−187.6%unavailableunavailable−42.8%+161.3%+66.5%−34.6%−15.8%
Diluted EPS-0.62-1.940.980.551.442.311.511.29
Diluted EPS YoY−188.6%unavailableunavailable−43.9%+161.8%+60.4%−34.6%−14.6%
net %-1.8%-5.4%3.7%1.5%3.2%5.7%4.4%4.1%
Free cash flow-12.3 m9.2 m24.5 m977.0 k2.4 m25.7 m23.6 m1.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
38.1 m USD
Financial debt
19.7 m USD
Net debt
-18.3 m USD
Equity
158.2 m USD
Total assets
228.1 m USD
Debt / equity
0.12x
Current ratio
3.02x
ROE
7.3%
ROA
5.1%
FCF margin
0.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
357.7 m
2024
302.4 m
2025
273.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
293.2 m
2024
249.1 m
2025
226.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
64.5 m
2024
53.3 m
2025
47.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
1.7 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
1.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
38.0 m
2024
36.6 m
2025
33.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
26.5 m
2024
16.7 m
2025
14.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
12.9 m
2024
13.4 m
2025
12.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
39.4 m ≈
2024
30.1 m ≈
2025
26.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
1.0 m
2024
-193.0 k
2025
1.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
25.7 m
2024
17.5 m
2025
14.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
5.4 m
2024
4.2 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
20.3 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
11.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.31
2024
1.51
2025
1.29

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
8.8 m
2024
8.8 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
24.1 m
2024
41.8 m
2025
38.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
41.7 m
2024
30.1 m
2025
30.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
22.1 m
2024
18.3 m
2025
19.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
102.9 m
2024
102.9 m
2025
103.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
81.2 m
2024
80.8 m
2025
86.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
17.4 m
2024
17.4 m
2025
17.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
6.0 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
213.4 m
2024
209.6 m
2025
228.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
24.0 m
2024
17.1 m
2025
14.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.5 m
2024
1.8 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
21.5 m
2024
19.7 m
2025
17.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
46.2 m
2024
36.7 m
2025
34.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
74.4 m
2024
62.2 m
2025
70.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
139.0 m †
2024
147.4 m †
2025
158.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
34.8 m
2024
35.2 m
2025
19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.1 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
17.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
25.7 m ≈
2024
23.6 m ≈
2025
1.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-9.1 m
2024
-11.5 m
2025
-17.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-5.8 m
2024
-5.9 m
2025
-5.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2021verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
2.9 m
2025
3.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-9.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-14.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-91.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-5.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
49.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
8.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
27.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-19.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-275.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
42.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
48 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
36 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
186.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
180.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
26.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
21.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
4.10
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 42 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

21.05 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 186.1 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
186.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-9.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 02 Nov 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 2704derived 173

Score by group

  • Growth0
  • Returns24
  • Balance sheet91
  • Valuation56
  • Quality13

Estimated value range

Low
22.38
USD per share
Mid
26.82
USD per share
High
29.62
USD per share
Price: 21.05 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 27.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 21.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.12 – 30.75 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA27.65 – 30.75 (Mid 30.26)
    6 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 12.1x – 13.4x
    ATR, AWI, KRT, MYE, NWL, SWIM
  • Peers: P/E17.12 – 28.49 (Mid 23.38)
    6 companies used · median multiple 28.9x · quartiles 21.1x – 35.2x
    ATR, AWI, DSWL, ENTG, KRT, MYE
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 42/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality4.7%14 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality2.4%25 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality-275.9%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-10.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.6%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.3x86 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet49.1x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.9x88 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation26.0x57 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.1x100 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation-10.4%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.7%24 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial24/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (CMT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 273.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -9.5%; net margin 2.4%; ROE 4.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.3x.

The estimated value range is 22.38–29.62 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.82 USD, the price of 21.05 USD leaves a potential of 27.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.3x
  • Interest coverage: 49.1x
  • Current ratio: 1.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 9.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 4.7%
  • Net margin: 2.4%
  • FCF conversion: -275.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -10.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.6%
  • FCF yield: -10.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
26.0x
vertical median 35.0x
below median (−25.7%)
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
vertical median 13.3x
below median (−31.5%)
P/S
0.7x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−64.3%)
P/B
1.2x
vertical median 3.4x
below median (−66.1%)
ROE
4.4%
vertical median 9.8%
below median (−55.0%)
Net margin
2.4%
vertical median 8.4%
below median (−71.1%)
EBIT margin
2.9%
vertical median 11.3%
below median (−74.5%)
Revenue YoY
-9.5%
vertical median 2.1%
below median (−554.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.3x
vertical median 2.2x
below median (−112.3%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ENTGEntegris, Inc.19.1 bn48.79.6%11.1%−1.4%+62% / +19%
ATRAptarGroup, Inc9.1 bn35.09.9%6.7%+5.4%+15% / +14%
AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.7.1 bn22.836.0%18.4%+12.1%−10% / +101%
NWLNewell Brands Inc2.3 bn—-12.8%-4.4%−5.0%+50% / −28%
KRTKarat Packaging Inc.1.0 bn20.631.2%10.2%+10.7%+133% / +138%
MYEMyers Industries, Inc.1.0 bn35.39.7%3.3%−1.3%+48% / +52%
SWIMLatham Group, Inc.932.6 m97.02.2%1.6%+7.4%+11% / +250%
CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.186.1 m26.04.4%2.4%−9.5%+12% / −17%
DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc.47.0 m4.410.0%17.3%−9.3%−18% / +13%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CMT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
10.98
Total return -48% · Per year -48%
19.50
Total return -7% · Per year -7%
29.51
Total return 40% · Per year 40%
3 years
8.72
Total return -59% · Per year -25%
17.60
Total return -16% · Per year -6%
29.51
Total return 40% · Per year 12%
5 years
6.92
Total return -67% · Per year -20%
15.89
Total return -25% · Per year -5%
29.51
Total return 40% · Per year 7%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.40
  • Net margin± 3.08
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.78
  • Annual dilution± 0.26

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Core Molding Technologies makes structural molded parts from thermoplastic and thermoset materials for heavy trucks, powersports, building products and industry, with six plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico 1. The company faces weak truck demand but won new contracts worth 25.7 million dollars in the first half of 2026, which could reduce its reliance on cyclical markets 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a broad range of manufacturing processes and a stable customer base, allowing it to serve both high-volume and lower-volume programs.
  • Management showed execution capacity in relocating Mexican plants without disrupting shipments and quality.
  • The July 2026 refinancing strengthened the financial position and gave more flexibility for investment.

Weaknesses

  • The company depends heavily on a few large customers, and losing one important contract could seriously affect results.
  • Truck demand remains volatile, and high fixed costs can reduce profitability when volumes fall.
  • Tooling project revenue is sporadic, which makes quarterly results hard to forecast.

Opportunities

  • New awards from outside trucks and powersports could broaden the revenue base and reduce cyclical exposure.
  • Capacity expansion in Monterrey and Matamoros could support organic growth if new programs launch on schedule.
  • Demand for energy infrastructure and battery storage could become a new growth market for the company's products.

Threats

  • Tariffs and the review of the North American trade agreement could raise costs and reduce demand from regional customers.
  • Rising petrochemical raw material prices could outpace the company's ability to pass costs on to customers.
  • Competitors with greater financial resources could win contracts if the company fails to innovate.

Risks

  • Concentration on major customershigh

    A small number of customers generate most sales, and the expiry or loss of a program could materially affect results 1.

  • Truck market cyclicalityhigh

    Truck demand depends on the economy and emissions regulation, and a prolonged downturn could hurt profitability 1.

  • Raw material costsmedium

    Higher resin and fiberglass prices could compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.

  • Mexico and Canada operationsmedium

    Operations in Mexico and Canada expose the company to trade policy changes, security conditions and currency movements 12.

  • Unionized workforcemedium

    Most employees are represented by unions with contracts expiring on different dates, which could lead to work stoppages or difficult negotiations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If truck demand recovers in the second half of the year, the company could benefit from its installed capacity and recently won contracts 3.
  • Diversification into powersports, construction and utilities could reduce dependence on a single cyclical segment 3.
  • A stronger balance sheet and new credit lines could give flexibility for organic growth investment 23.

What would break the thesis

  • If the truck recovery is delayed, sales could stay below fiscal 2024 levels and margins could be pressured 13.
  • Reliance on a few large customers could leave results exposed to any change in program or volume 1.
  • Quarterly results include one-time costs tied to the Mexico expansion, and net income fell compared with the prior year 3.

What to watch

  • Truck sales trend and confirmation of the second-half recoveryQ4 2026
  • Completion of the Monterrey and Matamoros expansion and launch timing of new programs2026
  • Gross margin against the 17% to 19% range guided for 2026Q4 2026
  • Results after the USMCA review and changes in import costsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Core Molding Technologies, Inc. is a maker of structural plastic parts headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, operating as a single segment 1. It uses SMC compression, RTM, DLFT and structural foam injection processes, and products are assembled, machined and painted before delivery 1. Net sales were 273.8 million dollars in fiscal 2025, down from 302.4 million in fiscal 2024, due to lower truck demand and the transition of the Volvo business 1.

Segments

Medium and heavy-duty trucks

The truck segment accounted for 44% of product sales in fiscal 2025, down from 56% in fiscal 2024, making it the largest and most cyclical market 1. Truck production sales fell in the second quarter of 2026, but the company expects a gradual recovery in the second half of the year 3.

Powersports and construction

Sales for powersports, building products and industrial markets grew strongly, and in the second quarter of 2026 production sales excluding trucks rose 20.8% 3. This category partly offsets weak demand from heavy transport 3.

Market context

The market for structural plastic parts depends on demand from truck and equipment makers, which follows the economic cycle, interest rates and emissions rules 1. The company says the North American truck market is highly cyclical and that tariffs could affect demand and costs 1. Major customers include BRP, International, PACCAR, Volvo and Yamaha, and five customers made up about 65% of fiscal 2025 sales 1.

Raw material prices for resins and fiberglass depend on petrochemicals and natural gas costs, while energy and infrastructure markets could become new growth drivers 13. The company disclosed a battery energy storage award, which points to expansion in utility-related demand 3.

Trends

  • Recovery in truck demandtailwind

    The company expects a gradual recovery in the truck market in the second half of 2026, which could support sales if the economic cycle improves 3.

  • Diversification into new marketstailwind

    More than 65% of new awards come from markets other than trucks and powersports, and demand from energy and data center growth could open new opportunities 3.

  • Trade policy and tariffsmixed

    The upcoming USMCA review and tariffs could change costs and demand at the company's Mexican and Canadian plants, though no material disruption has been reported so far 2.

  • Raw material costs and inflationheadwind

    Resin and fiberglass prices could rise, and long-term fixed-price customer contracts could limit recovery of those costs 1.

Competitive position

Core Molding considers itself one of the largest compounders and molders of structural products in North America and competes with several molders, including Molded Fiber Glass Companies, CSP, Ashley Industrial Molding, RMC, STS Group and 20/20 Custom Molded Plastics 1. Larger competitors may have greater financial resources and engineering capabilities 1.

The main competitive factors are capability, product quality, cost and on-time delivery 1. The company argues that its flexible processes and two material platforms can differentiate it on new programs 1.

  • Molded Fiber Glass Companies

    Competitor named in the annual report as a North American fiberglass structural molder.

  • CSP

    Structural molder named among the principal competitors in the annual report.

  • Ashley Industrial Molding

    Plastics molding competitor named in the annual report.

  • STS Group

    Competitor named in the main list of companies the company competes with.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
  • Current report03 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report28 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report28 Sept 2026
    Item 5.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
  • Current report04 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Core Molding Technologies, Inc. · 10 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Core Molding Technologies, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Core Molding Technologies, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.