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olivLaw · US equity research

Karat Packaging Inc. KRT

Plastics Products, NEC · SIC 3089 · Vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

53.63USD+2.80% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Karat Packaging Inc. is a distributor and manufacturer of disposable foodservice products, with a focus on eco-friendly items and its online channel. The company reported record net sales of 467.7 million USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 it reported net sales of 136.3 million USD, both relevant for judging growth and the effect of tariff refunds.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT) stock was 53.63 USD (+2.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, P/E 21.5 on diluted EPS of 2.50 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.36%, beta 0.77, 52-week range 21.06–54.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 136.3 m USD (+9.9% YoY), net income of 29.3 m USD (+168.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.46 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.1 bn USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.5
Diluted EPS TTM 2.50 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.66%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.36%
DPS 12m 1.80
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 37%
52-week range
21.0654.68

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.8
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
52.55 – 55.01
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.44 · band width 4.6%
SMA 50 / 200
51.81 / 36.17
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.39 / 0.68
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−1.9%−1.1%−0.8 pp—
3 months+26.7%−0.5%+27.1 pp—
6 months+80.7%+4.4%+76.3 pp—
Year to date+137.6%+12.3%+125.3 pp—
1 year+124.8%+13.5%+111.2 pp+16.1%
3 years+143.2%+76.4%+66.8 pp+27.2%
5 years+133.3%+63.7%+69.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−17.0%
05 Nov 2025 → 20 Nov 2025
Max drawdown (5y)
−45.7%
11 Nov 2021 → 27 Mar 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+18.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
136.3 m USD
+9.9% YoY
Net income
29.3 m USD
+168.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.46
+170.4% YoY
net / operating
21.5% / 27.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue112.8 m101.6 m103.6 m124.0 m124.5 m115.6 m116.9 m136.3 m
Cost of revenue69.3 m61.8 m62.9 m74.9 m81.6 m76.3 m75.4 m59.1 m
Gross profit43.5 m39.8 m40.8 m49.1 m42.9 m39.3 m41.5 m77.2 m
Operating income11.3 m7.3 m7.8 m16.6 m8.6 m8.5 m8.5 m37.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation2.7 m ≈2.7 m2.7 m2.7 m ≈2.8 m ≈2.8 m2.7 m2.7 m ≈
Interest expense535.0 k516.0 k509.0 k521.0 k539.0 k486.0 k409.0 k425.0 k
Pre-tax income11.9 m8.3 m8.9 m14.5 m9.9 m9.7 m9.4 m39.0 m
Income tax2.6 m2.5 m2.1 m3.5 m2.3 m2.5 m2.2 m9.4 m
Net income9.1 m5.6 m6.4 m10.9 m7.3 m6.8 m6.7 m29.3 m
Diluted EPS0.450.28 ≈0.320.540.360.34 ≈0.341.46
Operating cash flow19.5 m ≈8.3 m7.7 m9.8 m ≈982.0 k ≈15.4 m7.2 m33.2 m ≈
Capex303.0 k ≈216.0 k107.0 k167.0 k ≈246.0 k ≈236.0 k565.0 k56.0 k ≈
Dividends paid10.0 m ≈8.0 m9.0 m9.0 m ≈9.0 m ≈9.0 m9.0 m9.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 90 percentile of its own 21-quarter history (min 10.2, median 16.8, max 24.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue295.5 m364.2 m423.0 m405.7 m422.6 m467.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+23.3%+16.1%−4.1%+4.2%+10.7%
Net income17.5 m20.8 m23.6 m32.5 m30.0 m31.5 m
Net income YoYunavailable+18.6%+13.8%+37.3%−7.7%+5.0%
Diluted EPS1.131.121.191.631.491.56
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−0.9%+6.2%+37.0%−8.6%+4.7%
net %5.9%5.7%5.6%8.0%7.1%6.7%
Free cash flow-15.0 m4.5 m26.8 m50.5 m47.0 m33.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
37.9 m USD
Financial debt
12.9 m USD
Net debt
-24.9 m USD
Equity
156.9 m USD
Total assets
287.7 m USD
Debt / equity
0.08x
Current ratio
2.30x
ROE
19.7%
ROA
10.8%
FCF margin
7.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
405.7 m
2024
422.6 m
2025
467.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
252.6 m
2024
258.3 m
2025
295.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
153.0 m
2024
164.3 m
2025
172.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
42.1 m
2024
37.8 m
2025
41.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
10.8 m
2024
10.7 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
52.9 m ≈
2024
48.4 m ≈
2025
52.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.0 m
2024
2.1 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
43.0 m
2024
40.7 m
2025
43.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
9.8 m
2024
9.9 m
2025
10.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
32.5 m
2024
30.0 m
2025
31.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.63
2024
1.49
2025
1.56

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
20.0 m
2024
20.1 m
2025
20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.05
2024
1.55
2025
1.80

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
23.1 m
2024
31.6 m
2025
37.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
27.8 m
2024
26.7 m
2025
36.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
71.5 m
2024
70.7 m
2025
81.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
154.9 m
2024
161.0 m
2025
161.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
95.2 m
2024
88.0 m
2025
81.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
3.5 m
2024
3.5 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
327.0 k
2024
300.0 k
2025
273.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
276.4 m
2024
294.5 m
2025
287.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2023verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.1 m
2024
1.2 m
2025
12.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
203.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Mar 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
44.4 m
2024
46.4 m
2025
70.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
113.7 m
2024
132.3 m
2025
130.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
162.7 m
2024
162.2 m
2025
156.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
53.4 m
2024
48.0 m
2025
33.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.8 m
2024
934.0 k
2025
756.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
50.5 m ≈
2024
47.0 m ≈
2025
33.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-30.2 m
2024
-5.9 m
2025
25.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-16.2 m
2024
-33.6 m
2025
-52.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
20.9 m
2024
31.0 m
2025
36.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
0
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
9.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
9.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-29.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
40.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
12.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
31.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
15.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
34.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
27.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
72.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
64.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-26.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
33.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
56.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
55.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
110.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
76.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
111 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
6.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
19.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 73 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

53.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
6.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
31.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 996derived 84

Score by group

  • Valuation59
  • Returns64
  • Quality90
  • Balance sheet100
  • Growth46

Estimated value range

Low
42.10
USD per share
Mid
47.51
USD per share
High
54.70
USD per share
Price: 53.63 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -11.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -12.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 23.65 – 93.95 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)38.19 – 57.40 (Mid 45.67)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 57.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 10.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA46.01 – 51.99 (Mid 49.34)
    6 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 12.0x – 13.6x
    ATR, AWI, CMT, MYE, NWL, SWIM
  • Peers: P/E65.26 – 93.95 (Mid 89.05)
    5 companies used · median multiple 35.6x · quartiles 26.1x – 37.6x
    ATR, AWI, CMT, ENTG, MYE
  • Dividend discount (DDM)23.65 – 31.81 (Mid 27.13)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 73/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality34.0%100 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality10.2%63 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality110.7%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.4%28 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth9.4%63 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.4x100 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet33.9x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.3x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation21.5x86 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation14.1x29 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation5.2%65 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.8%55 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns64.8%79 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth46/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 467.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.7%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 31.2%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.

The estimated value range is 42.10–54.70 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 47.51 USD, the price of 53.63 USD leaves a potential of -11.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 34.0%
  • FCF conversion: 110.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
  • Interest coverage: 33.9x
  • Current ratio: 2.3x
  • P/E (TTM): 21.5x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 64.8%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.4%
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.1x

Versus the vertical median

Plastics Products, NEC (SIC 3089) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
21.5x
vertical median 35.6x
below median (−39.8%)
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
vertical median 13.5x
at median
P/S
2.2x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+51.1%)
P/B
6.4x
vertical median 2.9x
above median (+121.1%)
ROE
31.2%
vertical median 9.6%
above median (+223.5%)
Net margin
10.2%
vertical median 5.0%
above median (+102.8%)
EBIT margin
12.8%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+60.4%)
Revenue YoY
10.7%
vertical median -1.3%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.4x
vertical median 2.2x
below median (−115.9%)
Dividend yield
3.4%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+77.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ENTGEntegris, Inc.21.8 bn55.79.6%11.1%−1.4%+85% / +37%
ATRAptarGroup, Inc9.3 bn35.69.9%6.7%+5.4%+18% / +16%
AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.7.4 bn23.536.0%18.4%+12.1%−7% / +107%
NWLNewell Brands Inc2.5 bn—-12.8%-4.4%−5.0%+61% / −23%
MYEMyers Industries, Inc.1.1 bn37.69.7%3.3%−1.3%+58% / +62%
KRTKarat Packaging Inc.1.1 bn21.531.2%10.2%+10.7%+125% / +143%
SWIMLatham Group, Inc.963.2 m100.22.2%1.6%+7.4%+14% / +262%
CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.187.1 m26.14.4%2.4%−9.5%+12% / +18%
DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc.46.5 m4.410.0%17.3%−9.3%−19% / +12%

1- and 3-year price returns: for KRT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
31.61
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
55.92
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
84.27
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
30.01
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
59.80
Total return 22% · Per year 7%
99.04
Total return 98% · Per year 26%
5 years
28.49
Total return -34% · Per year -8%
63.95
Total return 38% · Per year 7%
116.41
Total return 142% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 14.95
  • Net margin± 10.46
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.68
  • Annual dilution± 0.88

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Karat Packaging Inc. is a distributor and manufacturer of disposable foodservice products, with a focus on eco-friendly items and its online channel. The company reported record net sales of 467.7 million USD in 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 it reported net sales of 136.3 million USD 3, both relevant for judging growth and the effect of tariff refunds.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company offers a wide product range, with a large catalog of references and an extensive distribution network 1.
  • The customer base includes well-known restaurant chains, and retention of major customers has been high in recent years 1.
  • The eco-friendly product line carries a significant share of sales and is growing, and the company has established experience in this segment 1.

Weaknesses

  • Gross margin declined in 2025 due to high tariff-related costs, and reliance on imports makes the company vulnerable to trade changes 1.
  • Quarterly results can be influenced by non-recurring items such as tariff refunds, which makes direct comparison with earlier periods difficult 3.
  • The company has related party transactions, which raises questions about whether terms match those available from unaffiliated third parties 1.

Opportunities

  • Growth in the online channel and a new distribution center in Florida could support sales growth 3.
  • Paper bags and other eco-friendly products could become growth drivers if new contracts extend to other customers 1.
  • Airline, entertainment venue and other non-restaurant customers could open new revenue sources 1.

Threats

  • Changes in tariffs and trade policy can quickly alter supply costs and affect profitability 2.
  • Changes in regulation and consumer preferences can reduce demand for certain products 1.
  • Larger competitors with more resources could cut prices and limit the company's growth 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on overseas suppliershigh

    Most products are imported, and disruptions in the supply chain can delay deliveries and raise costs 1.

  • Tariff changeshigh

    US tariff policy has changed several times, and new duties could reduce margins if they cannot be offset 2.

  • Raw material price volatilitymedium

    The cost of resin, aluminum and paper board may rise, and the company does not always have the ability to pass these increases fully to customers 1.

  • Related party transactionsmedium

    Some contracts are concluded with entities linked to shareholders, which may raise doubts about the terms obtained 1.

  • Capital expenditure and expansionlow

    Expanding the warehouse network or the truck fleet may require large investments that could affect the ability to meet debt obligations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If growth in the online channel and paper bags continues, the company could sustain sales growth that supports profitability 13.
  • Demand for eco-friendly products and for delivery could remain solid, supporting the company's market position 1.
  • Expanding the distribution network in strategic areas could shorten delivery times and improve customer service 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Recent results include non-recurring items such as tariff refunds, and without them profitability could be much lower 3.
  • Margins could come under pressure if tariffs or freight costs rise again and the company cannot offset them 12.
  • Competition from players with greater resources could lead to price cuts and loss of market share 1.

What to watch

  • Net sales and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the third quarterQ3 2026
  • Development of gross margin after the IEEPA tariff refund effects end2026
  • Results of the online channel and new paper bag contracts2026
  • Impact of the new Section 301 tariffs on import costs2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Karat Packaging is a company that distributes and manufactures products available in plastic, paper, biopolymer and other compostable forms, including food containers, bags, cups, cutlery, straws and specialty beverage ingredients 1. Most revenue comes from distributing products bought from a global network of about 150 vendors, while domestic manufacturing in the US remains a minor component 1. The company operates one reportable segment and has moved toward a lighter structure with more imports and less production 1.

Customers include fast casual and fast food restaurant chains, national and regional distributors, retail shops and online customers, and no single customer represented more than 10% of revenue in 2025 or 2024 1. The company operates distribution centers in Texas, California, Hawaii, New Jersey, Washington, Illinois, Arizona and South Carolina 2. Its strategy includes expanding the e-commerce channel and paper products such as bags, where a contract with a national chain is expected to become a growth driver 1.

The company is listed on Nasdaq under the symbol KRT and reports quarterly results, including guidance for the third quarter and the full year 2026 3. Management has indicated that supplier and distribution decisions aim to preserve margins in a volatile trade environment 2.

Segments

Sales channels

The chains and distributors channel generated 370.6 million USD in 2025 1, while the rest of sales came from retail and e-commerce/online 1. The online channel grew 23.6% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the prior year 3.

Market context

The market for disposable foodservice packaging is described by the company as extremely competitive and highly fragmented 1. Growth in food delivery and take-out demand supports demand for such products 1. The company's market share is not quantified in the analyzed sources.

The regulatory environment and consumer preference for eco-friendly products directly influence demand, and legislative changes can arrive quickly 1. Tariffs changed import costs, and the trade rules applicable in 2026 shifted during the year 2.

Trends

  • Preference for take-out and deliverytailwind

    The company believes consumer preference for delivery and take-out supports demand for packaging 1. If this trend continues, it could support sales volumes.

  • Regulation of disposable productsmixed

    Environmental concerns have led to rules that favor compostable products, which could raise demand for the company's eco-friendly line 1. Legislative changes can also reduce demand for some products if the company does not adapt quickly 1.

  • Tariffs and the supply chainmixed

    Tariffs imposed from 2025 raised import costs, and the company diversified sourcing toward Malaysia and Vietnam 1. IEEPA tariff refunds recognized in the second quarter of 2026 had a positive effect on profit, but they are one-time in nature 3.

  • Raw material and freight costsheadwind

    Prices of PET resin, aluminum and paper board can fluctuate, and delays in passing cost increases to customers can reduce gross margin 1. Ocean freight rates and import costs increased in the second quarter of 2026, adding costs 3.

Competitive position

Competitors are described as larger, with greater financial resources and stronger brand recognition 1. Competitive pressure can lead to price reductions, which would affect the company's margins 1.

The analyzed sources do not name direct competitors; the company only states that the market is fragmented and that many rivals have a broader product range 1. Any assessment of relative position requires additional sources.

  • Larger industry competitors

    The company states that many competitors are larger and have greater financial resources and a broader product range, without naming them in the analyzed sources 1.

  • Plastic and paper packaging manufacturers

    Competition comes from producers that can offer lower prices or superior products, according to the company's description 1.

  • Foodservice distributors with online platforms

    The company sells through platforms such as Sysco and Amazon, which places distributors on those channels within the competitive field 1.

  • Alternative suppliers of compostable products

    Competition could intensify if lower freight costs reduce barriers to entry, according to the company's description 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 25 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Karat Packaging Inc. · 13 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Karat Packaging Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Karat Packaging Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.