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olivLaw · US equity research

Core Natural Resources, Inc. CNR

Silver Ores · SIC 1220

80.22USD−3.74% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Core Natural Resources is a North American producer and exporter of metallurgical and thermal coal, formed through the January 2025 merger with Arch. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of about 1.1 billion USD and adjusted EBITDA of 323.6 million USD, amid a soft market with improving demand prospects.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) stock was 80.22 USD (−3.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.0 bn USD, P/E 40.4 on diluted EPS of 1.99 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.50%, beta 0.43, 52-week range 76.56–113.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+3.5% YoY), net income of 126.5 m USD, diluted EPS 2.51 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.0 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
40.4
Diluted EPS TTM 1.99 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.48%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.50%
DPS 12m 0.40
Beta (2y)
0.43
Volatility (1y) 44%
52-week range
76.56113.23

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
31.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
82.50 – 93.90
below the lower band · %B -0.20 · band width 12.9%
SMA 50 / 200
91.89 / 90.64
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.92 / -1.19
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−11.9%−1.1%−10.8 pp—
3 months−4.1%−0.5%−3.7 pp—
6 months−8.6%+4.4%−13.0 pp—
Year to date−9.4%+12.3%−21.7 pp—
1 year+4.6%+13.5%−8.9 pp—
3 years−18.0%+76.4%−94.4 pp—
5 years+235.4%+63.7%+171.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−31.4%
27 Mar 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.2%
25 Nov 2024 → 04 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+27.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.1 bn USD
+3.5% YoY
Net income
126.5 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
2.51
unavailable YoY
net / operating
11.1% / 13.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue553.4 m645.5 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn
Cost of revenue354.4 m378.9 m870.3 m912.6 m827.5 m934.5 m879.2 m889.0 m
SG&A36.2 m37.6 m——————
Operating income117.2 m37.9 m-53.9 m-19.3 m-11.8 m-97.1 m32.7 m155.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation53.3 m58.4 m121.6 m169.3 m151.0 m179.2 m146.3 m166.8 m
Interest expense4.7 m7.1 m1.7 m3.7 m10.6 m11.4 m11.2 m11.6 m
Pre-tax income113.2 m31.7 m-73.5 m-29.4 m-21.4 m-109.4 m20.6 m143.0 m
Income tax17.5 m833.0 k-4.2 m7.1 m-53.0 m-30.4 m-427.0 k16.5 m
Net income95.6 m30.8 m-69.3 m-36.6 m31.6 m-79.0 m21.0 m126.5 m
Diluted EPS3.221.04 ≈-1.38-0.700.61-1.54 ≈0.412.51
Operating cash flow161.3 m ≈121.3 m-109.6 m220.2 m ≈87.9 m ≈107.3 m119.4 m250.4 m ≈
Capex39.4 m ≈40.8 m64.8 m89.2 m ≈49.3 m ≈81.3 m73.1 m101.9 m ≈
Dividends paid7.4 m ≈7.4 m10.7 m5.2 m ≈5.1 m ≈5.2 m5.1 m5.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈0101.3 m81.9 m ≈19.4 m ≈21.7 m41.9 m63.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 96 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 1.6, median 7.7, max 50.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.5 bn1.4 bn1.0 bn1.3 bn2.1 bn2.6 bn2.2 bn4.2 bn
Revenue YoY+8.5%−6.6%−28.6%+23.2%+67.0%+22.2%−12.9%+86.2%
Net income153.0 m76.0 m-9.8 m34.1 m467.0 m655.9 m286.4 m-153.2 m
Net income YoY+126.2%−50.3%−112.8%unavailable+1,269.0%+40.5%−56.3%−153.5%
Diluted EPS5.382.81-0.370.9613.0719.799.61-2.98
Diluted EPS YoY+124.2%−47.8%−113.2%unavailable+1,261.5%+51.4%−51.4%−131.0%
net %10.0%5.3%-1.0%2.7%22.2%25.5%12.8%-3.7%
Free cash flow267.8 m74.8 m43.3 m172.8 m479.5 m690.2 m298.4 m21.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
432.2 m USD
Financial debt
394.8 m USD
Net debt
-37.4 m USD
Equity
3.7 bn USD
Total assets
6.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.11x
Current ratio
1.60x
ROE
-5.8%
ROA
-3.4%
FCF margin
0.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.2 bn ≈
2024
804.9 m ≈
2025
620.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
103.5 m
2024
115.2 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2025verified

Operating income
2023
803.3 m
2024
351.0 m
2025
-182.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
241.3 m
2024
223.5 m
2025
621.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.0 bn ≈
2024
574.5 m ≈
2025
439.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
29.3 m
2024
22.2 m
2025
40.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
777.9 m
2024
330.6 m
2025
-233.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
122.0 m
2024
44.2 m
2025
-80.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
655.9 m
2024
286.4 m
2025
-153.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
19.79
2024
9.61
2025
-2.98

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
33.1 m
2024
29.8 m
2025
51.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.20
2024
0.50
2025
0.40

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
199.4 m
2024
408.2 m
2025
432.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
147.6 m
2024
136.8 m
2025
349.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
88.2 m
2024
96.2 m
2025
374.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
601.0 m
2024
786.0 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2025verified

Total assets
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
137.2 m
2024
143.6 m
2025
335.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.6 m
2024
103.9 m
2025
77.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
181.9 m
2024
79.5 m
2025
317.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
443.7 m
2024
518.7 m
2025
838.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
3.7 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
857.9 m
2024
476.4 m
2025
305.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
167.8 m
2024
178.0 m
2025
284.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
690.2 m ≈
2024
298.4 m ≈
2025
21.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-259.4 m
2024
-165.0 m
2025
47.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-682.2 m
2024
-107.1 m
2025
-199.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
75.5 m
2024
15.9 m
2025
26.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
399.4 m
2024
70.9 m
2025
224.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
86.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
25.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
32.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-151.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-153.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-131.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-92.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-430.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
565.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
305.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
259.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
259.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
78.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
37 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
3.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
39.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
40.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
44.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
15.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.06
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 59 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

80.22 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
40.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
86.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1539derived 100

Score by group

  • Balance sheet68
  • Growth100
  • Quality32
  • Returns76
  • Valuation56

Estimated value range

Low
107.85
USD per share
Mid
128.30
USD per share
High
160.33
USD per share
Price: 80.22 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 59.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 37.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 107.85 – 160.33 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)107.85 – 160.33 (Mid 128.30)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 297.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -7.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate5.26 – 7.07 (Mid 6.03)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 59/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality1.9%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality2.3%16 (on a fixed band)7%
FCF conversion · Quality259.2%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth25.6%100 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.6x100 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.8x4 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x85 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation40.4x0 (on a fixed band)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.9x92 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation6.5%81 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.2%60 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns7.9%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality32/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 86.2%; net margin 2.3%; ROE 2.7%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.

The estimated value range is 107.85–160.33 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 128.30 USD, the price of 80.22 USD leaves a potential of 59.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 37.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 259.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 25.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.9x
  • FCF yield: 6.5%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 7.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 1.9%
  • Net margin: 2.3%
  • Interest coverage: 1.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 40.4x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
53.23
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
93.68
Total return 17% · Per year 17%
140.52
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
63.14
Total return -20% · Per year -7%
123.90
Total return 56% · Per year 16%
202.35
Total return 155% · Per year 37%
5 years
74.90
Total return -4% · Per year -1%
163.85
Total return 108% · Per year 16%
291.39
Total return 268% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 30.97
  • Net margin± 21.68
  • Annual revenue growth± 16.17
  • Annual dilution± 1.82

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Core Natural Resources is a North American producer and exporter of metallurgical and thermal coal, formed through the January 2025 merger with Arch. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of about 1.1 billion USD and adjusted EBITDA of 323.6 million USD, amid a soft market with improving demand prospects 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has low-cost mines, large reserves of quality coal and access to its own marine terminals 1.
  • Strong cash generation has allowed a large share of free cash flow to be returned to shareholders 3.

Weaknesses

  • PRB volumes were seasonally low in the second quarter of 2026 and unit costs rose 3.
  • The company depends on a few large customers and long-term contracts that could be renegotiated at lower prices 1.
  • The Leer South mine incident generated large firefighting and idle costs in 2025 12.

Opportunities

  • Data center power demand could increase demand for U.S. thermal coal 13.
  • If East Coast metallurgical prices recover, the metallurgical segment could see better margins 3.
  • Evaluation of critical minerals and advanced materials could diversify the business, though it is at an early stage 1.

Threats

  • Coal prices are volatile and could fall below expected levels, affecting results 1.
  • Environmental rules and the energy transition could reduce long-term demand 1.
  • Trade tariffs and retaliation by trading partners could lower the price received for coal 1.

Risks

  • Price volatilityhigh

    Coal prices can fluctuate widely due to supply, weather and competition from natural gas 1.

  • Customer concentrationmedium

    Reliance on large customers and long-term contracts could affect profitability if they are not renewed on favorable terms 1.

  • Mine operating risksmedium

    Equipment failures, geological events and transport disruptions could affect production 1.

  • Environmental regulationmedium

    Costs linked to emissions and contamination could rise and affect the coal market 1.

  • Debt and access to capitallow

    Limited access to capital markets or rising interest rates could affect results and cash flows 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If U.S. power demand grows and metallurgical prices recover, the company could convert its low costs into higher margins 3.
  • The capital return program and share count reduction could support shareholder value if cash flow stays strong 3.
  • Export facilities and owned terminals could provide access to global markets even when the domestic market is weak 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If the coal market stays weak, volumes and prices could keep falling, weighing on cash flow 3.
  • The energy transition could reduce long-term demand, and investments in critical minerals may not pay off 1.
  • PRB operating costs have risen, and lower volumes could persist if shipping remains weak 3.

What to watch

  • Delivery against guidance for High CV Thermal volumes and cost per ton2026
  • East Coast metallurgical prices and PRB volumes in the second half of the year2026
  • Effect of the metallurgical coal tax credit and lower federal royalty rates2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Its assets include marine export terminals in which it holds ownership interests and access to other third-party terminals, giving global reach 1. Recoverable reserves at December 31, 2025 total 529.0 million tons in the PAMC complex and 170.2 million tons in the Leer Complex 1. The strategy emphasizes cash generation, capital returns through buybacks and dividends, and evaluation of critical minerals 13.

Market context

U.S. thermal coal demand was pressured in the second quarter of 2026 by moderate temperatures, low natural gas prices and high customer stockpiles 3. The longer-term outlook depends on rising power demand tied to reindustrialization and AI-driven data center growth, which could support demand 3.

Seaborne metallurgical markets remain muted after two years of falling global hot metal output, and U.S. East Coast coking coal prices trail Australian indices 3. The company believes prices could recover if global hot metal demand rebounds 3.

Trends

  • Power demand from data centerstailwind

    The expansion of artificial intelligence and data center construction is raising global electricity demand, and the company says it could redirect production toward coal 13. If this growth materializes, it could support thermal volumes.

  • Regulatory support for coaltailwind

    April 2025 executive orders and the July 2025 OBBBA law aim to reduce the regulatory burden on coal power plants and provide a tax credit for metallurgical coal production from 2026 1. The effect depends on legal interpretations and later Treasury rulings 1.

  • Volatility in coal pricesheadwind

    Coal prices are volatile and depend on oversupply, weather, natural gas prices and plans to close coal-fired plants 1. A prolonged decline could affect results and cash flows 1.

  • Energy transition and emissions rulesmixed

    Efforts to curb pollution and greenhouse gas emissions could raise operating costs and reduce long-term coal demand, while supporting short-term demand in some markets 1. The net effect remains uncertain 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with other coal producers in the Appalachian and Powder River Basins and with Australian producers in seaborne metallurgical markets 13. Its advantages are low costs, large reserves and terminal access, but the market remains competitive 1.

In metallurgical coal, its Leer product competes with Australian premium low-vol coals, and in thermal coal with natural gas and other energy sources 3. Competition depends on prices, transport costs and product quality 1.

  • Alliance Resource PartnersARLP

    Appalachian coal producer named as a competitor in the U.S. energy market

  • Peabody EnergyBTU

    U.S. producer of metallurgical and thermal coal with overlapping export markets

  • Australian coal producers

    Australian premium metallurgical coal producers competing with Leer products in seaborne markets

  • Natural gas producers

    Natural gas producers compete indirectly with thermal coal in power generation

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Core Natural Resources, Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Core Natural Resources, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Core Natural Resources, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.