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olivLaw · US equity research

Peabody Energy Corporation BTU

Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining · SIC 1221 · Vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

17.02USD−17.62% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Peabody is one of the largest producers of metallurgical and thermal coal in the world, with operations in the United States and Australia. It sold 122.0 million tons of coal in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported results weighed down by the cost of commissioning the Centurion mine, with prospects of improvement in the second half of the year.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) stock was 17.02 USD (−17.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn USD, dividend yield 1.76%, beta 0.72, 52-week range 17.02–39.50 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+12.7% YoY), net income of -90.6 m USD, diluted EPS -0.74 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.1 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.42 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-8.34%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.76%
DPS 12m 0.30
Beta (2y)
0.72
Volatility (1y) 57%
52-week range
17.0239.50

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
18.7
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
19.18 – 26.55
below the lower band · %B -0.29 · band width 32.2%
SMA 50 / 200
25.32 / 27.84
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.42 / -1.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−33.3%−1.1%−32.2 pp—
3 months−25.4%−0.5%−24.9 pp—
6 months−31.8%+4.4%−36.2 pp—
Year to date−42.7%+12.3%−55.0 pp—
1 year−42.1%+13.5%−55.7 pp−1.6%
3 years−28.2%+76.4%−104.6 pp−13.5%
5 years+46.2%+63.7%−17.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−56.9%
27 Mar 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−68.3%
14 Apr 2022 → 07 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.0 bn USD
+12.7% YoY
Net income
-90.6 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.74
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-9.0% / -10.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.1 bn1.1 bn937.0 m890.1 m1.0 bn1.0 bn973.3 m1.0 bn
SG&A20.6 m26.3 m23.6 m23.5 m27.4 m30.5 m31.6 m23.3 m
Operating income120.1 m40.1 m31.9 m-38.4 m-81.4 m7.8 m-44.2 m-105.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation84.7 m95.6 m92.1 m93.4 m100.0 m99.0 m109.5 m107.5 m
Interest expense9.7 m11.8 m11.5 m11.1 m10.0 m11.3 m10.7 m12.7 m
Pre-tax income138.2 m61.9 m43.2 m-28.3 m-70.0 m21.6 m-41.4 m-122.9 m
Income tax25.7 m23.6 m4.9 m-2.7 m-3.4 m10.0 m-16.0 m-37.0 m
Net income101.3 m63.2 m34.4 m-27.6 m-70.1 m20.8 m-32.4 m-90.6 m
Diluted EPS0.740.46 ≈0.27-0.23-0.580.17 ≈-0.27-0.74
Operating cash flow359.9 m ≈119.8 m119.9 m23.2 m ≈122.0 m ≈68.6 m30.0 m-1.4 m ≈
Dividends paid9.4 m ≈9.1 m9.1 m9.2 m ≈9.2 m ≈9.0 m9.2 m9.1 m ≈
Share repurchases100.0 m ≈000 ≈0 ≈0——

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue5.6 bn4.6 bn2.9 bn3.3 bn5.0 bn4.9 bn4.2 bn3.9 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−17.2%−37.7%+15.2%+50.1%−0.7%−14.4%−8.9%
Net income544.4 m-211.3 m-1.9 bn371.4 m1.3 bn815.6 m403.5 m-42.5 m
Net income YoYunavailable−138.8%unavailableunavailable+255.2%−38.2%−50.5%−110.5%
Diluted EPS4.43-2.04-19.143.228.315.002.70-0.43
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−146.0%unavailableunavailable+158.1%−39.8%−46.0%−115.9%
net %9.8%-4.6%-65.0%11.2%26.5%16.5%9.5%-1.1%
Free cash flow1.2 bn392.0 m-201.1 m236.9 m952.1 m687.2 m205.2 m-77.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
575.3 m USD
Financial debt
15.2 m USD
Net debt
-560.1 m USD
Equity
3.6 bn USD
Total assets
5.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
1.85x
ROE
-1.2%
ROA
-0.7%
FCF margin
-2.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.9 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
90.7 m
2024
91.0 m
2025
105.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
445.3 m
2025
-80.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
321.4 m
2024
343.0 m
2025
384.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.4 bn ≈
2024
788.3 m ≈
2025
304.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
59.8 m
2024
46.9 m
2025
43.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
516.1 m
2025
-33.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
308.8 m
2024
108.8 m
2025
8.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
815.6 m
2024
403.5 m
2025
-42.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.00
2024
2.70
2025
-0.43

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
154.3 m
2024
141.9 m
2025
121.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.23
2024
0.23
2025
0.30

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
969.3 m
2024
700.4 m
2025
575.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
389.7 m
2024
359.3 m
2025
314.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
351.8 m
2024
393.4 m
2025
383.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
965.5 m
2024
811.7 m
2025
827.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
13.5 m
2024
15.8 m
2025
15.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
979.0 m
2024
827.5 m
2025
842.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.0 bn
2024
606.5 m
2025
333.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
348.3 m
2024
401.3 m
2025
411.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
687.2 m ≈
2024
205.2 m ≈
2025
-77.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-342.6 m
2024
-598.1 m
2025
-346.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-460.3 m
2024
-276.0 m
2025
-85.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
30.6 m
2024
37.6 m
2025
36.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
347.7 m
2024
183.1 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-118.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-110.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-115.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-137.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
-512.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-2.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
219.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
411.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-192.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
113.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
30 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
1.67
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 30 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

17.02 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2599derived 190

Score by group

  • Valuation22
  • Returns25
  • Quality6
  • Balance sheet70
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
8.67
USD per share
Mid
10.75
USD per share
High
13.75
USD per share
Price: 17.02 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -36.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -58.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.94 – 22.21 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA13.40 – 22.21 (Mid 16.97)
    5 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 5.8x – 11.4x
    AMR, ARLP, CNR, HCC, NRP
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.94 – 5.30 (Mid 4.52)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 30/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-6.4%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net margin · Quality-4.3%17 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-8.1%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-2.7x100 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-5.0x0 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.0x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation8.1x40 (vs peers)15%
FCF yield · Valuation-9.3%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.8%25 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial25/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -8.9%; net margin -4.3%; ROE -5.0%; net debt/EBITDA -2.7x.

The estimated value range is 8.67–13.75 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.75 USD, the price of 17.02 USD leaves a potential of -36.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -58.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 30/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net debt / EBITDA: -2.7x
  • Current ratio: 2.0x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -6.4%
  • Net margin: -4.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.1%
  • Interest coverage: -5.0x
  • FCF yield: -9.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Coal mining (SIC 122x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 16.3x
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
vertical median 8.1x
at median
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 0.9x
below median (−45.2%)
P/B
0.6x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−43.2%)
ROE
-5.0%
vertical median 3.1%
below median (−264.3%)
Net margin
-4.3%
vertical median 3.8%
below median (−212.5%)
EBIT margin
-5.6%
vertical median 5.5%
below median (−201.9%)
Revenue YoY
-8.9%
vertical median -15.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-2.7x
vertical median -0.6x
below median
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 0.8%
above median (+117.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.4.3 bn18.510.4%12.5%−14.1%+3% / +45%
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.4.0 bn40.42.7%2.3%+86.2%+0% / −25%
ARLPAlliance Resource Partners LP3.2 bn12.2—12.3%−10.4%+3% / +20%
BTUPeabody Energy Corp2.1 bn—-5.0%-4.3%−8.9%−42% / −28%
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.2.0 bn—-3.0%-2.2%−28.0%−3% / −45%
NRPNatural Resource Partners LP1.6 bn15.3——−16.6%+13% / +55%
METCRamaco Resources, Inc.310.0 m—-15.0%-12.2%−19.5%−56% / −57%
ARECAmerican Resources Corporation106.5 m1.6718.3%—−100.0%−64% / −40%
NCNacco Industries, Inc.—17.23.4%5.3%+16.6%−30% / −2%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BTU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Peabody is one of the largest producers of metallurgical and thermal coal in the world, with operations in the United States and Australia. It sold 122.0 million tons of coal in 2025 12, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported results weighed down by the cost of commissioning the Centurion mine, with prospects of improvement in the second half of the year 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a diversified mine base across the United States and Australia and a significant share of long-term contracts, which gives some predictability to revenue 1.
    • The coal reserves it controls are substantial and are complemented by an active asset optimization program 1.
    • The company reported a record low safety incidence rate in 2025, showing a high level of operational discipline 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Quarterly results are sensitive to the costs of commissioning the Centurion mine, which weighed on the second quarter of 2026 3.
    • Take-or-pay obligations for transport and port can turn variable costs into fixed costs, even when halting operations would be more economical 1.
    • Many long-term contracts are renegotiated periodically, and losing key customers could reduce revenue 1.

    Opportunities

    • The development of the Centurion mine could improve volumes and quality in the metallurgical segment if target production rates are reached 13.
    • Rare earth and critical mineral projects in the Powder River Basin, backed by government grants, could open new revenue sources 3.
    • Electricity demand from data centers could support thermal coal consumption in the United States 1.

    Threats

    • Competition from natural gas and renewables could reduce thermal coal demand for power generation over time 1.
    • Coal prices are volatile and depend on factors hard to control, such as energy policy, tariffs and geopolitical tensions 12.
    • The arbitration over the terminated Anglo acquisition could create additional costs or obligations if it is resolved unfavorably 1.

    Risks

    • Coal price volatilityhigh

      Coal prices are shaped by demand, supply, costs and policy, and sharp declines could affect results and the value of reserves 1.

    • Centurion mine performancehigh

      If the Centurion mine does not reach target production rates, costs could stay elevated and results could be affected 3.

    • Anglo litigationmedium

      The arbitration brought by Anglo subsidiaries could lead to damages if the company's position on the terminated agreements does not prevail 1.

    • Take-or-pay obligationsmedium

      Minimum payment commitments for transport and port could reduce operational flexibility, particularly when prices are low 1.

    • Mining operational risksmedium

      Safety incidents, equipment failures and geological conditions could interrupt production and increase costs 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the Centurion mine reaches its target rates in the second half of 2026, results in the metallurgical segment could return to positive territory 3.
    • Long-term contracts and a significant backlog could give revenue a more predictable base 1.
    • A strengthened capital structure and lower collateral needs could improve free cash flow if these measures are sustained 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • If metallurgical coal prices fall again, segment results could be strongly affected 2.
    • Competition from natural gas and renewables could keep reducing thermal demand over the long term 1.
    • Powder River Basin volumes fell below target levels in the second quarter, which could deepen margin pressure 3.

    What to watch

    • Centurion mine production rates and cost trendsQ3 2026
    • Premium HCC and Premium PCI prices against the company's guidanceQ3 2026
    • Outcome of the Anglo arbitration2026
    • Updated annual guidance and segment results in the next reportQ3 2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    The Centurion mine, an underground longwall metallurgical coal mine in Queensland, began full-scale longwall production in February 2026 and is presented by the company as a driver of higher quantity and quality of seaborne metallurgical output 1. Commissioning phases weighed on costs and volumes in the second quarter of 2026 3.

    Market context

    The seaborne metallurgical coal market was volatile in the first half of 2026, with the Premium HCC price up 29% 2. Chinese demand and domestic supply constraints supported prices, while Indian import demand moderated in the period 2. In thermal coal, Peabody realized higher average prices in the second quarter of 2026 than in the first, amid strong coal-fired generation in several Asian countries 3.

    Trends

    • Rising US electricity demandtailwind

      Electricity demand linked to data centers and artificial intelligence could support thermal coal consumption and the deferral of plant retirements, which could give volumes more stability 1.

    • Competition from natural gas and renewablesheadwind

      Cheap natural gas and growing renewable generation keep reducing coal's share of power output, which could weigh on thermal prices and volumes 1.

    • Metallurgical coal price volatilitymixed

      Metallurgical coal prices swung sharply in 2026 under the influence of China's policy, India's steel growth and geopolitical tensions 2. This volatility could bring either gains or losses depending on how supply evolves.

    • Trade and tariff policymixed

      Tariffs and trade changes shape global coal flows and purchasing costs, and final effects remain uncertain if tariffs are extended or withdrawn 12.

    Competitive position

    In thermal coal, Peabody competes with natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind and solar, as well as other large coal producers. In metallurgical coal competition is among large international producers, and an important factor is the substitution of coal by other steelmaking technologies such as electric arc furnaces 1.

    Competition rests on coal quality, delivered energy cost including transport, customer service and reliability of supply. Sources name firms such as Alliance Resource Partners, Core Natural Resources, Hallador Energy, BHP, Glencore and Warrior Met Coal among competitors 1.

    • Alliance Resource PartnersARLP

      A large US coal producer, listed in the US, named as a direct competitor in the thermal coal market 1.

    • Core Natural ResourcesCNR

      A US coal producer that appears in both the thermal and metallurgical competitor lists 1.

    • Warrior Met CoalHCC

      A US-listed metallurgical coal producer, named as an international competitor in metallurgical coal 1.

    • Glencore

      An international company with thermal and metallurgical coal operations, named as a major competitor in both segments 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 30 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    • Current report04 Nov 2026
      Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report16 Oct 2026
      Item 1.04 · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report09 Sept 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report28 Aug 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report11 Aug 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
    • Current report29 Jul 2026
      Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report15 Jun 2026
      Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report02 Jun 2026
      Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Peabody Energy Corporation · 19 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Peabody Energy Corporation · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Peabody Energy Corporation · 29 Jul 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.