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olivLaw · US equity research

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. ARLP

Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining · SIC 1221 · Vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

25.18USD−3.64% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

ARLP is a US natural resource company that produces and markets coal, mainly to electric utilities, and holds oil and gas royalty interests. The company reported total revenues of 2.19 billion USD in 2025, and after the July 2026 AllDale III & IV acquisition its oil and gas royalty segment expanded significantly, diversifying long-term revenues.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) stock was 25.18 USD (−3.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.2 bn USD, P/E 12.2, beta 0.21, 52-week range 23.10–28.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 551.6 m USD (+0.7% YoY), net income of 79.6 m USD (+33.9% YoY).

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.2 bn USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.2
market cap ÷ net income
E/P (TTM)
8.22%
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.21
Volatility (1y) 21%
52-week range
23.1028.99

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
24.35 – 27.15
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.30 · band width 10.9%
SMA 50 / 200
25.74 / 25.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.22 / 0.23
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+1.6%−2.0%+3.6 pp—
3 months−0.9%−2.2%+1.3 pp—
6 months−1.9%+4.3%−6.2 pp—
Year to date+8.4%+10.6%−2.2 pp—
1 year+2.3%+10.5%−8.1 pp−16.6%
3 years+4.9%+73.7%−68.7 pp−26.7%
5 years+115.6%+61.7%+53.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.9%
27 Mar 2026 → 18 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−35.1%
31 Aug 2022 → 31 May 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+16.6%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
551.6 m USD
+0.7% YoY
Net income
79.6 m USD
+33.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
14.4% / 17.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue613.6 m590.1 m540.5 m547.5 m571.4 m535.5 m516.0 m551.6 m
Operating income101.1 m15.3 m94.3 m88.7 m105.0 m97.3 m21.9 m95.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation73.0 m80.5 m68.6 m76.3 m78.2 m76.3 m82.4 m81.3 m
Interest expense9.5 m8.7 m8.4 m9.3 m11.0 m11.0 m11.7 m12.6 m
Pre-tax income91.0 m20.6 m79.7 m66.4 m102.7 m87.2 m13.4 m87.8 m
Income tax4.1 m3.0 m4.2 m5.3 m5.9 m3.3 m2.7 m6.2 m
Net income86.3 m16.3 m74.0 m59.4 m95.1 m82.7 m9.1 m79.6 m
Operating cash flow209.3 m ≈168.4 m145.7 m151.7 m ≈209.9 m ≈143.9 m105.5 m153.0 m ≈
Capex110.3 m ≈93.2 m86.8 m67.0 m ≈64.7 m ≈44.8 m95.7 m50.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.0 bn2.0 bn1.3 bn1.6 bn2.4 bn2.6 bn2.4 bn2.2 bn
Revenue YoY+11.5%−2.1%−32.3%+18.9%+53.2%+6.1%−4.6%−10.4%
Net income366.6 m399.4 m-129.2 m182.8 m586.2 m630.1 m360.9 m311.2 m
Net income YoY+20.7%+8.9%−132.4%unavailable+220.7%+7.5%−42.7%−13.8%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %18.3%20.4%-9.7%11.6%24.2%24.5%14.7%14.2%
Free cash flow460.9 m209.0 m279.5 m309.2 m516.0 m444.9 m374.4 m387.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
71.2 m USD
Financial debt
450.8 m USD
Net debt
379.6 m USD
Equity
unavailable USD
Total assets
2.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.10x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
10.8%
FCF margin
17.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2022verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024derived

Operating income
2023
672.4 m
2024
394.1 m
2025
385.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
268.0 m
2024
285.4 m
2025
299.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
940.4 m ≈
2024
679.6 m ≈
2025
684.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
36.1 m
2024
35.2 m
2025
39.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
644.5 m
2024
381.5 m
2025
336.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
8.3 m
2024
15.9 m
2025
18.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
630.1 m
2024
360.9 m
2025
311.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
59.8 m
2024
137.0 m
2025
71.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
282.6 m
2024
166.8 m
2025
129.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
127.6 m
2024
120.7 m
2025
142.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
516.1 m
2024
513.2 m
2025
430.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2022verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2023verified

Total assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
108.3 m
2024
98.2 m
2025
81.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
20.3 m
2024
22.3 m
2025
23.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
316.8 m
2024
450.9 m
2025
427.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
227.5 m
2024
233.1 m
2025
204.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
929.8 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
993.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
824.2 m
2024
803.1 m
2025
651.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
379.3 m
2024
428.7 m
2025
263.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
444.9 m ≈
2024
374.4 m ≈
2025
387.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-553.3 m
2024
-440.7 m
2025
-331.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-507.1 m
2024
-285.3 m
2025
-385.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-13.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-19.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
29.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
14.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
16.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
input data missing
ROA
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
468.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
6.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
612.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
255.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
357.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
134.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
96.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
12.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
1.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 63 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

25.18 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1959derived 155

Score by group

  • Balance sheet41
  • Growth0
  • Valuation86
  • Quality92

Estimated value range

Low
33.06
USD per share
Mid
41.07
USD per share
High
52.83
USD per share
Price: 25.18 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 63.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 38.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.40 – 54.09 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)33.06 – 54.09 (Mid 41.07)
    WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 400.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -20.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA36.52 – 52.83 (Mid 42.85)
    5 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 8.1x – 11.4x
    AMR, BTU, CNR, HCC, NRP
  • Peers: P/E30.40 – 35.40 (Mid 30.47)
    3 companies used · median multiple 14.7x · quartiles 14.7x – 17.1x
    HCC, NC, NRP
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 63/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality12.3%83 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality134.0%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.2%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.7x0 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.9x83 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x79 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation12.2x80 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.8x80 (vs peers)15%
FCF yield · Valuation11.0%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP (ARLP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -10.4%; net margin 12.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.

The estimated value range is 33.06–52.83 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 41.07 USD, the price of 25.18 USD leaves a potential of 63.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 12.3%
  • FCF conversion: 134.0%
  • Interest coverage: 6.9x
  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 12.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.8x
  • FCF yield: 11.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.2%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Coal mining (SIC 122x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
12.2x
vertical median 14.7x
below median (−17.4%)
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
vertical median 9.4x
below median (−38.0%)
P/S
1.5x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+59.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.1x
ROE
—
vertical median 2.7%
Net margin
12.3%
vertical median 0.1%
above median (+21,421.9%)
EBIT margin
14.7%
vertical median -0.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
-10.4%
vertical median -15.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
0.7x
vertical median -0.7x
above median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.4.3 bn19.510.0%13.0%−14.1%+3% / +45%
CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.4.0 bn40.42.7%2.3%+86.2%+0% / −25%
ARLPAlliance Resource Partners LP3.2 bn12.2—12.3%−10.4%+2% / +5%
BTUPeabody Energy Corp2.1 bn—-5.0%-4.3%−8.9%−38% / −29%
AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.2.0 bn—-3.0%-2.2%−28.0%−3% / −45%
NRPNatural Resource Partners LP1.6 bn14.7——−16.6%+13% / +55%
METCRamaco Resources, Inc.310.0 m—-15.0%-12.2%−19.5%−56% / −57%
ARECAmerican Resources Corporation106.5 m1.6718.3%—−100.0%−64% / −40%
NCNACCO Industries, Inc.—14.64.1%6.2%+16.6%−30% / −2%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARLP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
13.73
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
24.37
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
36.85
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
11.34
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
22.84
Total return -9% · Per year -3%
38.18
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
5 years
9.37
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
21.40
Total return -15% · Per year -3%
39.57
Total return 57% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 5.71
  • Net margin± 4.00
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.54
  • Annual dilution± 0.34

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

ARLP is a US natural resource company that produces and markets coal, mainly to electric utilities, and holds oil and gas royalty interests. The company reported total revenues of 2.19 billion USD in 2025, and after the July 2026 AllDale III & IV acquisition its oil and gas royalty segment expanded significantly, diversifying long-term revenues.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a solid position as the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States, and a base of long-term contracts gives visibility over volumes 1.
  • The oil and gas royalty portfolio, expanded through the AllDale III & IV acquisition, brings high-margin revenue and diversifies cash flows 3.
  • Leverage remains moderate, and available liquidity was significant at the end of the third quarter of 2026 2.

Weaknesses

  • Coal revenue is sensitive to contract pricing and to the roll-off of contracts with better prices, which drove lower revenue in 2025 1.
  • Customer concentration is significant, as a few large utilities account for material shares of revenue 1.
  • The Mettiki mine ceased longwall production after outages at a key customer's plant, showing the vulnerability of certain assets 2.

Opportunities

  • Further development of natural gas royalties, especially in the Haynesville, could support long-term revenue growth 3.
  • Investments in energy and infrastructure, such as Gavin Generation and Infinitum, could open new business lines if they develop successfully 1.
  • Rising electricity demand and LNG exports could support the monetization of gas in the portfolio 3.

Threats

  • Environmental regulation and changing utility preferences could reduce demand for coal as an energy source 1.
  • Oil and gas price volatility could affect royalty revenue and the value of recent acquisitions 3.
  • Operational risks in underground mines, such as unexpected operating conditions, could affect profitability 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on a few large customershigh

    A small number of utilities account for significant shares of revenue, and failure of customers to honor contracts could affect results 1.

  • Environmental regulation and climate policymedium

    Regulation could raise compliance costs and reduce demand for coal, with effects on volumes and prices 1.

  • Exposure to oil and gas pricesmedium

    The company does not have hedging arrangements against commodity prices, so royalty revenue could fluctuate sharply 1.

  • Acquisition integration risklow

    Expansion through acquisitions such as AllDale III & IV carries integration risks that could affect results if not managed well 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the AllDale III & IV acquisition continues to deliver natural gas royalty income, the royalty segment could become a more stable pillar of profitability 3.
  • Lower per-ton costs in coal operations could support margins even when sales prices remain below earlier levels 3.
  • A moderate debt level and solid liquidity could provide flexibility for new investments or for supporting distributions 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If coal prices stay below the levels seen during the energy crisis period, sales revenue could continue to decline 1.
  • Dependence on a few large customers and long-term contracts could expose the company to renegotiation or early termination of agreements 1.
  • If coal demand falls because of environmental policy, volumes and revenue from mining operations could be affected over the long term 1.

What to watch

  • Results of the oil and gas royalty segment after integrating AllDale III & IVQ4 2026
  • Trend in the average coal sales price per ton in AppalachiaQ4 2026
  • Decision on the future of the Mettiki mine and its effect on volumes2027
  • Level of distributions and the distribution coverage rationext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates revenue from producing and marketing coal to utilities, industrial users and international customers, as well as royalties from oil and gas mineral interests. Its coal operations include seven underground mining complexes in six states and a coal-loading terminal on the Ohio River. The company describes itself as the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States 1.

In 2025 the company sold 33.0 million tons of coal and produced 33.2 million tons 1. Coal sales are anchored in long-term contracts: about 86.5% of 2025 coal sales were under such contracts, with terms expiring between 2026 and 2030 1. The company also operates through Matrix Group, an industrial products subsidiary, and Bitiki, which mines bitcoin 1.

Beyond mining, ARLP holds oil and gas royalty interests in the Permian, Anadarko and Williston Basins, and has invested in energy and infrastructure companies such as Infinitum and Gavin Generation 1. As of September 30, 2026, the company reported a total leverage ratio of 0.89 times, indicating moderate debt levels 2.

Segments

Coal royalties and other activities

The coal royalties segment collects royalties on coal reserves owned or leased by Alliance Resource Properties and leased to the company's mines 2. The Other, Corporate and Elimination category includes Matrix Group, the bitcoin activity and non-oil and gas investments, and ARLP held 673 bitcoins at September 30, 2026 2.

Market context

The US coal market is dominated by power sector demand, where 89.2% of the company's 2025 tons sold went to domestic electric utilities 1. Exports are a smaller share, about 8.6% of tons sold, mainly through brokers 1. Oil and gas companies operating in the basins where ARLP holds royalties could affect segment revenue, depending on realized prices.

Trends

  • Rising natural gas demand and LNG exportstailwind

    Management expects natural gas to benefit from growing LNG exports and rising power demand, which could support the value of royalties in the Haynesville and other gas basins 3.

  • Energy transition and coal regulationheadwind

    Environmental rules and changing utility consumption patterns could reduce demand for coal as a fuel source, with direct effects on volumes sold 1.

  • Expansion of the royalty portfoliotailwind

    Acquisitions of mineral interests, such as AllDale III & IV and the 2026 Permian purchases, could accelerate growth in stable royalty income 23.

  • Contract pricing and coal price volatilitymixed

    Lower realized prices after higher-priced contracts rolled off suggest exposure of margins to the price cycle, and price adjustment mechanisms do not fully offset cost changes 1.

Competitive position

ARLP operates in a highly competitive coal market where price, coal quality, supply reliability, transport logistics and proximity to customers are key factors 1. According to its annual report, its principal competitors are American Consolidated Natural Resources, Core Natural Resources, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Foresight Energy and Peabody Energy 1.

The company also competes with smaller producers in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, and with foreign coal producers in international export markets 1. Its differentiation rests on a broad range of coal qualities and transport options combined with customized services 1.

  • Alpha Metallurgical ResourcesAMR

    Metallurgical coal producer named in the annual report as a principal competitor.

  • Core Natural ResourcesCNR

    Coal producer named as a principal competitor in the eastern United States.

  • Peabody EnergyBTU

    Large coal producer named as a principal direct competitor.

  • Foresight Energy

    Illinois Basin coal producer named as a principal competitor.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report26 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report27 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report02 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Jun 2026
    Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report08 May 2026
  • Current report27 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Apr 2026
    Item 1.04 · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Annual report26 Feb 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. · 26 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.