olivLaw · US equity research
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. HCC
Silver Ores · SIC 1220 · Vertical: Coal mining (SIC 122x)
Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal for the global steel industry, operating underground mines in Alabama. The start of its Blue Creek mine has raised production and sales sharply, and in the second quarter of 2026 volumes reached record levels, with 9.3 million metric tons produced in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock was 80.92 USD (+0.32% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.3 bn USD, P/E 18.5 on diluted EPS of 4.39 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.40%, beta 0.60, 52-week range 66.06–110.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 507.9 m USD (+54.6% YoY), net income of 49.3 m USD (+34.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.93 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 78.70 – 94.66
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 18.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 92.47 / 89.80
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.62 / -2.29
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.3% | −1.1% | −11.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.0% | −0.5% | −3.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.6% | +4.4% | −12.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.2% | +12.3% | −20.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +24.8% | +13.5% | +11.3 pp | −16.6% |
| 3 years | +63.9% | +76.4% | −12.5 pp | −26.7% |
| 5 years | +256.3% | +63.7% | +192.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 297.5 m | 299.9 m | 297.5 m | 328.6 m | 384.0 m | 458.6 m | 509.7 m | 507.9 m |
| Cost of revenue | 228.8 m | 245.7 m | 226.4 m | 239.5 m | 270.7 m | 290.4 m | 340.0 m | 368.5 m |
| SG&A | 17.2 m | 18.4 m | 11.9 m | 17.2 m | 18.1 m | 28.2 m | 9.8 m | 13.7 m |
| Operating income | -4.2 m | -17.4 m | 7.7 m | 20.7 m | 34.6 m | 79.4 m | 94.5 m | 50.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 39.2 m | 45.3 m | 43.3 m | 43.6 m | 56.4 m | 52.3 m | 58.3 m | 68.1 m |
| Interest expense | 813.0 k | 2.1 m | 2.9 m | 2.3 m | 2.4 m | 3.2 m | 5.5 m | 4.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.0 m | -14.2 m | 9.9 m | 22.9 m | 35.9 m | 78.8 m | 91.1 m | 48.9 m |
| Income tax | 815.0 k | -6.0 m | 4.3 m | -13.7 m | 12.9 m | 6.4 m | 3.7 m | -433.0 k |
| Net income | 1.1 m | -8.2 m | 5.6 m | 36.6 m | 23.0 m | 72.3 m | 87.4 m | 49.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.02 ≈ | -0.16 | 0.11 | 0.70 | 0.44 ≈ | 1.37 | 1.65 | 0.93 |
| Operating cash flow | 54.2 m | 10.9 m | 37.5 m ≈ | 104.7 m ≈ | 76.1 m | -11.7 m | 132.3 m ≈ | 166.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 3.3 m | 5.2 m | 4.2 m ≈ | 4.2 m ≈ | 4.2 m | 4.7 m | 4.2 m ≈ | 4.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 75 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 1.6, median 6.0, max 94.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 782.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +17.9% | −8.0% | −38.3% | +35.3% | +64.2% | −3.6% | −9.0% | −14.1% |
| Net income | 696.8 m | 301.7 m | -35.8 m | 150.9 m | 641.3 m | 478.6 m | 250.6 m | 57.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +53.1% | −56.7% | −111.9% | unavailable | +325.0% | −25.4% | −47.6% | −77.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.17 | 5.86 | -0.70 | 2.93 | 12.40 | 9.20 | 4.79 | 1.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +52.8% | −55.5% | −111.9% | unavailable | +323.2% | −25.8% | −47.9% | −77.5% |
| net % | 50.6% | 23.8% | -4.6% | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% |
| Free cash flow | 457.8 m | 425.5 m | 25.1 m | 293.7 m | 636.7 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 300.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 154.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -145.7 m USD
- Equity
- 2.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.07x
- Current ratio
- 3.19x
- ROE
- 2.7%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 782.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 625.2 m | 554.3 m | 710.6 m | 910.3 m | 1.0 bn | 982.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 157.6 m ≈ | 504.9 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 766.4 m ≈ | 517.9 m ≈ | 327.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 32.9 m | 35.6 m | 48.8 m | 51.8 m | 63.1 m | 65.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -27.1 m | 243.8 m | 801.4 m | 541.4 m | 254.9 m | 45.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 118.1 m | 141.4 m | 115.3 m | 127.4 m | 154.0 m | 188.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 91.0 m ≈ | 385.2 m ≈ | 916.7 m ≈ | 668.8 m ≈ | 408.9 m ≈ | 234.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 31.4 m | 18.0 m | 4.3 m | 9.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -55.9 m | 200.0 m | 783.1 m | 551.4 m | 283.7 m | 54.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -20.1 m | 49.1 m | 141.8 m | 72.8 m | 33.1 m | -2.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -35.8 m | 150.9 m | 641.3 m | 478.6 m | 250.6 m | 57.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.70 | 2.93 | 12.40 | 9.20 | 4.79 | 1.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 51.2 m | 51.4 m | 51.7 m | 52.0 m | 52.3 m | 52.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1.54 | 1.16 | 0.82 | 0.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 211.9 m | 395.8 m | 829.5 m | 738.2 m | 491.5 m | 300.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 83.3 m | 122.2 m | 151.8 m | 98.2 m | 140.9 m | 181.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 118.7 m | 59.6 m | 154.0 m | 183.9 m | 207.6 m | 235.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 467.5 m | 627.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 887.1 m | 820.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 59.1 m | 33.8 m | 39.0 m | 36.2 m | 40.2 m | 66.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 379.9 m | 339.8 m | 302.6 m | 153.0 m | 153.6 m | 154.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 170.3 m | 122.1 m | 153.1 m | 147.7 m | 170.4 m | 257.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 668.7 m | 592.2 m | 580.6 m | 482.6 m | 500.7 m | 642.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 725.2 m † | 872.0 m † | 1.4 bn † | 1.9 bn † | 2.1 bn † | 2.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 112.6 m | 351.5 m | 841.9 m | 701.1 m | 367.4 m | 229.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 87.5 m | 57.9 m | 205.2 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | 25.1 m ≈ | 293.7 m ≈ | 636.7 m ≈ | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | -108.2 m | -71.1 m | -255.1 m | -527.2 m | -538.0 m | -405.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 14.1 m | -96.5 m | -153.1 m | -265.2 m | -68.5 m | -15.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 10.4 m | 10.5 m | 79.7 m | 61.1 m | 43.8 m | 17.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 45 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation40
- Returns6
- Quality85
- Balance sheet67
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 59.78 – 111.92 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA59.78 – 111.92 (Mid 81.21)5 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 5.8x – 11.4xAMR, ARLP, BTU, CNR, NRP
- Peers: P/E60.31 – 71.30 (Mid 67.29)3 companies used · median multiple 15.3x · quartiles 13.8x – 16.3xARLP, NC, NRP
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate4.21 – 5.66 (Mid 4.82)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 45/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.8% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 12.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -55.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.6x | 33 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 16.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.5x | 20 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.1x | 60 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.4% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet67/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial6/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -14.1%; net margin 12.5%; ROE 10.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
The estimated value range is 60.05–91.61 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 74.25 USD, the price of 80.92 USD leaves a potential of -8.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 45/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 11.8%
- Net margin: 12.5%
- Interest coverage: 16.6x
- Current ratio: 4.2x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -9.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -55.7%
- P/E (TTM): 18.5x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Coal mining (SIC 122x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc. | 4.3 bn | 18.5 | 10.4% | 12.5% | −14.1% | +25% / +64% |
| CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc. | 4.0 bn | 40.4 | 2.7% | 2.3% | +86.2% | +0% / −25% |
| ARLPAlliance Resource Partners LP | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | — | 12.3% | −10.4% | +3% / +20% |
| BTUPeabody Energy Corp | 2.1 bn | — | -5.0% | -4.3% | −8.9% | −38% / −29% |
| AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -3.0% | -2.2% | −28.0% | −3% / −45% |
| NRPNatural Resource Partners LP | 1.6 bn | 15.3 | — | — | −16.6% | +13% / +55% |
| METCRamaco Resources, Inc. | 310.0 m | — | -15.0% | -12.2% | −19.5% | −56% / −57% |
| ARECAmerican Resources Corporation | 106.5 m | 1.6 | 718.3% | — | −100.0% | −64% / −40% |
| NCNacco Industries, Inc. | — | 17.2 | 3.4% | 5.3% | +16.6% | −30% / −2% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HCC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 43.35 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 77.03 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 116.55 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 34.42 Total return -57% · Per year -24% | 69.52 Total return -13% · Per year -5% | 116.55 Total return 45% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 27.33 Total return -65% · Per year -19% | 62.74 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 116.55 Total return 46% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 17.38
- Net margin± 12.17
- Annual revenue growth± 10.99
- Annual dilution± 1.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal for the global steel industry, operating underground mines in Alabama. The start of its Blue Creek mine has raised production and sales sharply, and in the second quarter of 2026 volumes reached record levels, with 9.3 million metric tons produced in 2025 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- Premium product profile with realized prices close to the index, and a flexible variable cost structure that protects profitability 1.
- Blue Creek adds capacity and lowers cash cost, and the company has no inherited pension or OPEB liabilities 13.
- Solid liquidity and positive cash generation in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Weaknesses
- Sales depend almost entirely on steelmaking coal, leaving the company exposed to price or demand declines 1.
- Realized price fell below the premium index in Q2 2026 because of sales mix and freight rates 3.
- Lease obligations and federal coal lease payments add fixed commitments that could raise outlays 12.
Opportunities
Risks
- Single-product dependencehigh
Nearly all revenue comes from steelmaking coal, so a prolonged drop in price or demand would hit results directly 1.
- Tariffs and trade policymedium
Tariffs and retaliatory measures could affect prices, equipment costs and market access, and their impact has not yet been quantified 1.
- Blue Creek execution riskmedium
The ramp-up and longwall moves planned for 2026 could face delays or operational problems 13.
- Labor negotiationsmedium
Without a new contract with the UMWA union, strikes, labor shortages or higher wage costs could arise 13.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical exposurelow
Wars, sanctions and slowing economies, particularly in developing countries, could reduce demand and prices 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Blue Creek keeps raising volumes and lowering costs, margins and cash flow could continue to improve 23.
- The cost position and premium product quality could support profitability even in periods of lower prices 1.
- A clean balance sheet without inherited pension obligations, and high liquidity, provide flexibility 13.
What would break the thesis
- If steelmaking coal prices stay below premium levels, revenue and margins could fall quickly given the single-product dependence 13.
- Trade tariffs and retaliatory measures could reduce demand and push the company to accept lower prices 1.
- Execution and labor negotiation risks could delay production targets and raise costs 13.
What to watch
- Sales volumes against the 13.0-14.0 million short ton full-year guidance2026
- Realized price against the Platts Premium Low Vol index and the effect of sales mixQ3 2026
- Progress on a new labor contract with the UMWA union2026
- Effect of tariffs and the 45X credit on costs and cash flownext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama and focuses entirely on mining non-thermal steelmaking coal for steel producers. It operates three underground mines, Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7 and Blue Creek, using longwall technology, and exports through the Port of Mobile about 300 miles away 1. Steelmaking coal production totaled 9.3 million metric tons in 2025 1.
The company describes its coal as premium, with low sulfur and high coking strength, and Mine No. 7 realized prices have historically tracked the Platts Premium Low Vol index 1. A variable cost structure and no legacy pension or OPEB liabilities are presented as competitive advantages 1.
Longwall operations at Blue Creek began in October 2025, eight months ahead of schedule, and construction was completed in the first quarter of 2026 with spending in line with guidance 2. The company also acquired two BLM federal coal leases that add reserves for long-term development 1.
Segments
Mining (steelmaking coal)
The only reportable segment is Mining, which comprises Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7 and Blue Creek. Quarterly sales rose as Blue Creek came into production, and its contribution to results is described as growing 13.
Natural gas and royalties
The natural gas business, which removes and sells methane from owned and leased coal seams, did not meet the criteria for a reportable segment and is reported in an all other category 1.
Market context
The steelmaking coal market stayed challenged in 2025 due to weak global steel demand, record Chinese steel exports and abundant supply 1. Prices improved slightly in Q4 2025, and in 2026 India emerged as a near-term driver of import demand, while tariffs continue to influence prices 13.
Customers are mainly steel producers in Asia, Europe and South America, and the Asia share of sales rose to 48% in 2025 1. The company says it has expanded marketing to India and Southeast Asia 1.
Trends
- Blue Creek ramp-uptailwind
The Blue Creek mine has lifted volumes and reduced unit costs, supporting revenue and cash flow in 2026 23. Growth depends on market conditions, since actual volumes will follow demand 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsheadwind
U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures by trading partners have contributed to lower seaborne prices and create uncertainty over costs and demand 1. The company says it cannot yet quantify the impact on its financial statements 1.
- Tax framework and 45X credittailwind
The OBBBA law classified metallurgical coal as a critical mineral eligible for the 45X credit and temporarily lowered federal royalty rates, and the credit helped lower cash cost in Q2 2026 13. The longer-term effect is still being assessed 1.
- Global steel demand and supplymixed
Steel demand and Chinese steel exports remain key factors, and Indian demand is seen as a positive catalyst, though demand could be reduced by substitutes or economic slowdowns 13. Abundant supply has limited prices 1.
Competitive position
The company compares itself with other U.S. steelmaking coal producers but says its edge comes from premium coal quality, proximity to port and a flexible cost structure 1. Producers in Australia and Western Canada are named as rivals in Atlantic Basin markets 1.
Competition and changes in foreign economies can affect sales and profitability, and producers in Australia and Western Canada have shipping advantages on some routes, according to the source 1.
- Australian steelmaking coal producers
Cited as rivals with a shipping advantage in Atlantic Basin markets and a quality standard that sets industry pricing
- Western Canada steelmaking coal producers
Named in the source as rivals with a less favorable shipping position compared with the company's routes
- Other U.S. steelmaking coal producers
Described as selling lower-rank coal that typically realizes lower prices
- U.S. thermal coal producers
The source distinguishes the company from listed U.S. coal companies that are not focused exclusively on steelmaking coal
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Warrior Yaxel Lendeborg : Lost all respect for Luka DoncicSurge — GDELT DOC · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Why Viking museums still can’t escape the warrior mythScienceDaily · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Кремль прокомментировал натовские учения Strike Warrior // Песков: НАТО остается инструментом конфронтацииKommersant (RU) · 21 Sept 2026 · RU
- Ukrainian children learn ancient warrior skills amid modern warFrance24 — Europe · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- Russia Sends Bones of Medieval Warrior to Ukraine Front to Boost MoraleKyiv Post · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Russia sends bones of medieval warrior prince to Ukraine front to boost moraleDefense News (US, EN) · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Russia sends bones of medieval warrior prince to Ukraine front to boost moraleCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- China’s Warrior Scientists: Insights from Recent Operations Around TaiwanWar on the Rocks · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Taiwan condemns China’s ‘wolf warrior’ behaviour at Pacific forumThe Straits Times — Asia · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- 97-year-old woman rescued after Nepali floods looked like 'a warrior'BBC World News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Whatever Happened to ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomacy?The Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 22 Jul 2026 · RO
- Count Binface, Nigel Farage's space-warrior foeHacker News · 11 Jul 2026 · EN
- Agentic AI: The Weapon That No Longer Needs a WarriorThe Hacker News · 23 Jun 2026 · RO
- Law Enforcement's "Warrior" ProblemHacker News · 12 Jun 2026 · EN
- Unknown MAGA Warrior Upends Race for a Seat on Texas Oil RegulatorBloomberg Markets · 29 May 2026 · EN
- ‘True Maga warrior’ takes on old-guard Texan in key test of Trump’s GOP gripThe Guardian World · 26 May 2026 · RO
- On UK Kosovars’ Podcast, Albanian ‘Warrior Women’ Speak OutBalkan Insight (BIRN) · 18 May 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement10 Mar 2026
- Annual report12 Feb 2026
- Current report12 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.