olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Elbit Systems Ltd. ESLT

Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC · SIC 3728 · Vertical: Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC (SIC 3728)

756.62USD+1.91% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Elbit Systems is an international high technology company focused mainly on defense and homeland security, supplying airborne, land and naval systems. In 2025 it won several major contracts, including one of about 2.3 billion USD, as governments worldwide increase defense spending.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) stock was 756.62 USD (+1.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 35.1 bn USD, P/E 66.4 on diluted EPS of 11.39 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.32%, beta 0.38, 52-week range 454.95–1,014.33 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
35.1 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
66.4
Diluted EPS TTM 11.39 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
1.51%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.32%
DPS 12m 2.40
Beta (2y)
0.38
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
454.951,014.33

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
53.3
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
640.06 – 826.78
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 25.5%
SMA 50 / 200
724.39 / 785.76
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
14.83 / 12.05
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.7%−2.0%+10.7 pp—
3 months−10.9%−2.2%−8.7 pp—
6 months−11.1%+4.3%−15.4 pp—
Year to date+31.0%+10.6%+20.4 pp—
1 year+57.3%+10.5%+46.8 pp−5.6%
3 years+297.3%+73.7%+223.7 pp+49.4%
5 years+385.5%+61.7%+323.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−35.5%
17 Mar 2026 → 12 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−35.5%
17 Mar 2026 → 12 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+37.2%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 18.4, median 27.3, max 50.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue3.7 bn4.5 bn4.7 bn5.3 bn5.5 bn6.0 bn6.8 bn7.9 bn
Revenue YoY+9.1%+22.4%+3.4%+13.2%+4.4%+8.4%+14.3%+16.3%
Net income206.7 m227.9 m237.7 m274.4 m275.4 m215.1 m321.1 m534.3 m
Net income YoY−13.5%+10.2%+4.3%+15.4%+0.4%−21.9%+49.3%+66.4%
Diluted EPS4.835.205.386.206.184.827.1811.39
Diluted EPS YoY−13.6%+7.7%+3.5%+15.2%−0.3%−22.0%+49.0%+58.6%
net %5.6%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.0%3.6%4.7%6.7%
Free cash flow89.4 m-190.9 m146.6 m228.3 m35.0 m-73.3 m319.6 m552.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
635.1 m USD
Financial debt
101.5 m USD
Net debt
-533.7 m USD
Equity
4.1 bn USD
Total assets
12.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.02x
Current ratio
1.29x
ROE
14.4%
ROA
4.5%
FCF margin
7.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
4.5 bn
2024
5.2 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
502.7 m
2024
544.1 m
2025
599.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
369.1 m
2024
489.1 m
2025
671.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
164.8 m
2024
158.4 m
2025
171.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
533.9 m ≈
2024
647.4 m ≈
2025
842.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
143.9 m
2024
157.8 m
2025
146.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
226.5 m
2024
341.7 m
2025
561.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
22.9 m
2024
39.1 m
2025
55.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
215.1 m
2024
321.1 m
2025
534.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.82
2024
7.18
2025
11.39

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
44.6 m
2024
44.7 m
2025
46.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.01
2024
2.00
2025
2.40

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
197.4 m
2024
265.4 m
2025
635.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
5.5 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
7.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
390.5 m
2024
354.8 m
2025
324.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
9.7 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
12.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
75.3 m
2024
74.6 m
2025
83.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
41.2 m
2024
27.4 m
2025
18.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
4.8 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
44.3 m
2024
44.5 m
2025
46.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
113.7 m
2024
534.6 m
2025
778.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
187.0 m
2024
215.1 m
2025
225.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-73.3 m ≈
2024
319.6 m ≈
2025
552.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-210.6 m
2024
-178.8 m
2025
-390.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
83.2 m
2024
-287.9 m
2025
-17.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
89.2 m
2024
89.0 m
2025
111.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
12.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
37.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
66.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
24.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
17.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
58.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
16.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
73.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
24.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
14.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
18.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
21.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
20.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
-533.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
4.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
778.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
225.6 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
552.8 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
103.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
92.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
144 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
179 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
87 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
237 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
35.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
34.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
65.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
66.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
8.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
4.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
41.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBIT
51.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
4.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
63.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 56 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

756.62 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 35.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
35.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
66.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
8.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
41.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROE
14.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 17 Mar 2026
verified 622derived 16

Score by group

  • Balance sheet72
  • Growth100
  • Quality74
  • Returns43
  • Valuation11

Estimated value range

Low
244.35
USD per share
Mid
291.98
USD per share
High
380.91
USD per share
Price: 756.62 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -61.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -159.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 62.29 – 491.20 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)244.35 – 366.40 (Mid 291.98)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 684.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA324.21 – 491.20 (Mid 361.33)
    3 companies used · median multiple 19.3x · quartiles 17.2x – 26.4x
    ATRO, KRMN, TDG
  • Peers: P/E62.29 – 380.91 (Mid 280.57)
    6 companies used · median multiple 24.6x · quartiles 5.5x – 33.4x
    ATRO, CVU, LOAR, PKE, PRZO, TDG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate31.60 – 42.50 (Mid 36.25)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC (SIC 3728)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 56/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality18.0%67 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality6.7%60 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality103.5%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth12.9%100 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth22.6%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.6x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.6x47 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x41 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation66.4x14 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation41.1x0 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation1.6%20 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.3%5 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns20.2%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns43/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (ESLT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.3%; net margin 6.7%; ROE 14.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.

The estimated value range is 244.35–380.91 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 291.98 USD, the price of 756.62 USD leaves a potential of -61.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -159.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 103.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 22.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 20.2%

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 66.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 41.1x
  • FCF yield: 1.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Aircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC (SIC 3728) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
66.4x
vertical median 32.2x
above median (+106.1%)
EV/EBITDA
41.1x
vertical median 26.4x
above median (+55.3%)
P/S
4.4x
vertical median 6.7x
below median (−33.7%)
P/B
8.5x
vertical median 3.6x
above median (+136.9%)
ROE
14.4%
vertical median 5.8%
above median (+147.0%)
Net margin
6.7%
vertical median 5.7%
above median (+18.4%)
EBIT margin
8.5%
vertical median 10.8%
below median (−21.6%)
Revenue YoY
16.3%
vertical median 9.8%
above median (+65.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.6x
vertical median 4.0x
below median (−115.8%)
Dividend yield
0.3%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated66.8 bn33.8—21.3%+11.2%−11% / +25%
ESLTElbit Systems Ltd35.1 bn66.414.4%6.7%+16.3%+57% / +297%
LOARLoar Holdings Inc.6.4 bn0.55.8%11.6%+23.2%−0% / unavailable
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.5.2 bn137.09.5%6.3%+36.6%−41% / unavailable
DCODucommun Incorporated2.5 bn—-3.0%-2.4%+4.9%+82% / +231%
ATROAstronics Corporation2.0 bn32.233.7%8.4%+8.4%+40% / +414%
PKEPark Aerospace Corp.575.9 m36.411.1%18.4%+18.2%+35% / +73%
CVUCpi Aerostructures, Inc.64.0 m17.014.4%5.1%−14.6%+72% / +104%
AIRIAir Industries Group12.5 m—-10.6%-3.8%−13.0%−14% / −11%
PRZOParaZero Technologies Ltd.9.8 m1.6-380.5%-517.1%+12.3%−66% / −34%
EHEHang Holdings Limited——-27.8%-66.0%−4.4%−73% / −78%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ESLT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
490.05
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
863.14
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
1,295.70
Total return 72% · Per year 72%
3 years
559.65
Total return -25% · Per year -9%
1,100.85
Total return 47% · Per year 14%
1,802.10
Total return 140% · Per year 34%
5 years
639.13
Total return -14% · Per year -3%
1,404.03
Total return 88% · Per year 13%
2,506.43
Total return 234% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 275.21
  • Net margin± 192.65
  • Annual revenue growth± 146.31
  • Annual dilution± 16.19

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).

In brief

Elbit Systems is an international high technology company focused mainly on defense and homeland security, supplying airborne, land and naval systems. In 2025 it won several major contracts, including one of about 2.3 billion USD, as governments worldwide increase defense spending.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A broad systems portfolio and a worldwide presence through local subsidiaries that allow revenues to be sourced from different regions 1.
  • Recognised leadership in laser technology for military applications, including the Iron Beam system 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on long-term fixed-price contracts could expose the company to unforeseen costs 1.
  • Supply chain disruptions have affected production and require additional inventories 1.
  • Expanding facilities in Europe and Israel involves large investment and execution risk 1.

Opportunities

  • Rising defense spending and demand for drones and munitions could generate new contracts 1.
  • The Blue and White strategy could lead to further orders from the Israeli Ministry of Defense 1.
  • Integrating artificial intelligence into products and production could improve efficiency and competitiveness 1.

Threats

  • Government preference for local producers could limit the company's access to some markets 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions could shift budget priorities and contract timing 1.
  • Competition from major defense companies could pressure margins on large programs 1.

Risks

  • Fixed-price contract executionhigh

    Revenues come mainly from long-term fixed-price contracts, so cost overruns could affect profitability 1.

  • Supply chainmedium

    Recent supply chain disruptions could delay deliveries and raise production costs 1.

  • Geopolitical riskhigh

    Regional conflicts and geopolitical instability could change demand and contract timing 1.

  • Investment in new capacitymedium

    Building new facilities in Europe, the United States and Israel carries risk of delay and budget overrun 1.

  • Local procurement policiesmedium

    Government strategies favouring local production could limit participation by foreign suppliers, including the company 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If demand for defense systems keeps growing, the company's broad portfolio could support new long-term contracts 1.
  • A worldwide presence through subsidiaries could reduce dependence on a single market and stabilise revenues 1.
  • Leadership in laser technology and programs such as Iron Beam could open new commercial opportunities 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If governments favour local producers, the company could lose contracts it would otherwise have won 1.
  • Fixed-price contracts can expose the company to unexpected cost increases, which could reduce margins 1.
  • Supply chain disruptions could delay projects and raise operating costs 1.

What to watch

  • Progress of the major contracts won in 2025 and timing of related deliveries2026
  • Production ramp-up at the new munitions site in Ramat Beka2026
  • Aerospace segment results and the impact of new European facilitiesQ1 2027
  • Inventory levels and supply chain performance as reported in the next annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).

The business

Elbit Systems Ltd. is an Israeli high technology company listed on Nasdaq and the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange under the symbol ESLT, developing and supplying systems for defense, homeland security and commercial applications 1. Its strategy rests on a worldwide presence through local subsidiaries, a role as a trusted strategic partner, and investment in research and development 1. Revenues come mainly from fixed-price long-term contracts, with services below 10% of total revenues 1.

In 2025 the company invested in energy weapons and autonomous systems and expanded in Europe, starting new facilities in Sweden and Germany, and built a new U.S. site for composite and metal aircraft structures 1. It is increasingly integrating artificial intelligence and automation into manufacturing to reduce supply chain disruptions 1.

The company won contracts from the Israeli Ministry of Defense and international customers, including an approximately 260 million USD contract for DIRCM systems for Germany's A400M fleet 1. It reports results across five segments, four organized by the nature of products and services 1.

Segments

Aerospace

The Aerospace segment provides unmanned systems, training and simulator systems, avionics, precision guided munition sensors, aerostructures and commercial aviation systems 1.

C4I and Cyber

The C4I and Cyber segment covers tactical communications, command, control and intelligence systems, cyber solutions, and robotic and autonomous systems 1.

ISTAR and EW

The ISTAR and EW segment develops electro-optic systems, high-power lasers, electronic warfare, SIGINT and radars, including the Iron Beam system, the first of which was delivered in 2025 1.

Market context

Defense demand has grown after the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and governments worldwide have announced plans to increase military spending 1. Demand is rising for C4ISR systems, drones, precision munitions, electronic warfare and homeland security solutions 1.

After supply chain disruptions, several states seek independent capabilities through local defense industries, and the company's global presence through subsidiaries and partnerships could be an advantage 1.

Trends

  • Rising defense budgetstailwind

    Governments have announced higher defense spending to prepare for high intensity conflicts, which supports demand for the company's portfolio 1.

  • Blue and White strategytailwind

    Israel's Blue and White strategy encourages local production, which could bring the company new awards if it materialises 1.

  • Digitalisation and artificial intelligencetailwind

    Demand for digital solutions, AI and data analytics in military applications is growing, and the company is extending its products in this direction 1.

  • Supply chain pressuresheadwind

    Supply chain disruptions in recent years have raised costs and delay risk, and the company is trying to reduce them through inventories and better planning 1.

Competitive position

The sources do not explicitly name the company's competitors. The company describes partnerships with leading defense companies worldwide and competes indirectly with suppliers of military systems in the same segments 1.

The company's advantage lies in integrated system-of-systems solutions and global presence, but competitive pressure could increase if governments favour local producers 1.

  • Leading international defense companies

    The sources mention partnerships with major defense companies worldwide without naming them 1.

  • Local defense producers

    Governments pursuing industrial autonomy could favour local producers, as the source notes 1.

  • C4ISR system suppliers

    The C4I and Cyber segment meets competition from suppliers of command and communication systems 1.

  • Electronic warfare suppliers

    The ISTAR and EW segment competes with other suppliers of countermeasures and SIGINT systems 1.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Elbit Systems Ltd. · 17 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.