olivLaw · US equity research
Forestar Group Inc. FOR
Real Estate · SIC 6500 · Vertical: Real Estate (SIC 6500)
Forestar Group is a national residential lot developer that buys land, develops it and sells finished single-family lots to homebuilders. Recent filings show rising revenues and strong liquidity, while housing affordability remains a constraint and D.R. Horton holds a controlling stake.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) stock was 24.97 USD (+6.26% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 7.5 on diluted EPS of 3.33 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.80, 52-week range 23.09–31.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 407.0 m USD (+4.2% YoY), net income of 35.9 m USD (+9.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.70 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 23.88 – 26.76
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 11.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 26.23 / 27.38
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.48 / -0.39
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.5% | −1.1% | −0.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.6% | −0.5% | −15.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.9% | +4.4% | −12.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +1.4% | +12.3% | −10.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −0.9% | +13.5% | −14.5 pp | −12.2% |
| 3 years | −5.6% | +76.4% | −82.0 pp | −2.5% |
| 5 years | +16.7% | +63.7% | −47.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 551.4 m | 250.4 m | 351.0 m | 390.5 m | 670.5 m | 273.0 m | 374.3 m | 407.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 419.5 m | 195.4 m | 271.8 m | 310.8 m | 520.9 m | 218.0 m | 294.1 m | 322.9 m |
| SG&A | 32.0 m | 36.0 m | 38.4 m | 37.4 m | 42.6 m | 36.5 m | 37.9 m | 38.3 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 700.0 k | 800.0 k | 1.0 m ≈ | 800.0 k ≈ | 900.0 k | 900.0 k | 700.0 k ≈ | 700.0 k ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 108.5 m | 21.9 m | 40.7 m | 43.6 m | 113.1 m | 20.8 m | 43.9 m | 48.7 m |
| Income tax | 26.9 m | 5.4 m | 9.1 m | 10.7 m | 26.2 m | 5.4 m | 11.7 m | 12.7 m |
| Net income | 81.6 m | 16.5 m | 31.6 m | 32.9 m | 86.9 m | 15.4 m | 32.1 m | 35.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.60 ≈ | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 1.70 ≈ | 0.30 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| Operating cash flow | 119.2 m | -450.0 m | -19.8 m ≈ | 15.8 m ≈ | 256.3 m | -157.0 m | 151.9 m ≈ | 32.7 m ≈ |
| Capex | 800.0 k | 0 | 700.0 k ≈ | 800.0 k ≈ | 700.0 k | 100.0 k | 200.0 k ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 3.1, median 8.2, max 23.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 114.3 m | 428.3 m | 931.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | unavailable | +117.6% | +42.3% | +14.6% | −5.4% | +5.0% | +10.1% |
| Net income | 50.3 m | 33.0 m | 60.8 m | 110.2 m | 178.8 m | 166.9 m | 203.4 m | 167.9 m |
| Net income YoY | — | unavailable | +84.2% | +81.3% | +62.3% | −6.7% | +21.9% | −17.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.19 | 0.79 | 1.26 | 2.25 | 3.59 | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | unavailable | +59.5% | +78.6% | +59.6% | −7.2% | +20.1% | −17.8% |
| net % | 44.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 10.1% |
| Free cash flow | -15.4 m | -392.1 m | -169.0 m | -304.7 m | 105.2 m | 362.8 m | -160.6 m | -199.9 m |
The series breaks before 2017: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 379.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 802.7 m USD
- Net debt
- 423.5 m USD
- Equity
- 1.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.45x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 10.0%
- ROA
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- -12.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 931.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 813.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 118.1 m ≈ | 229.2 m ≈ | 324.0 m ≈ | 304.1 m ≈ | 359.3 m ≈ | 363.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025derived |
| SG&A | 45.7 m | 68.4 m | 93.6 m | 97.7 m | 118.5 m | 154.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.9 m | 2.7 m | 2.7 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2020verified |
| Pre-tax income | 78.1 m | 146.6 m | 235.8 m | 221.6 m | 270.1 m | 219.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 16.4 m | 36.1 m | 57.0 m | 54.7 m | 66.7 m | 51.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 60.8 m | 110.2 m | 178.8 m | 166.9 m | 203.4 m | 167.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.26 | 2.25 | 3.59 | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.29 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 48.1 m | 49.0 m | 49.8 m | 50.1 m | 50.8 m | 51.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 394.3 m | 153.6 m | 264.8 m | 616.0 m | 481.2 m | 379.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.1 m | 2.9 m | 5.7 m | 5.9 m | 7.1 m | 8.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 641.1 m | 704.5 m | 706.0 m | 695.0 m | 706.4 m | 802.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 868.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 871.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -168.4 m | -303.1 m | 108.7 m | 364.1 m | -158.4 m | -197.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 600.0 k | 1.6 m | 3.5 m | 1.3 m | 2.2 m | 2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -169.0 m ≈ | -304.7 m ≈ | 105.2 m ≈ | 362.8 m ≈ | -160.6 m ≈ | -199.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 5.0 m | 1.0 m | 1.3 m | 300.0 k | 7.3 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 174.9 m | 61.4 m | 1.2 m | -13.2 m | 16.3 m | 92.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Market and valuation
9 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 43.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
43% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 18.08 – 60.26 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Net asset value (NAV)unavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/B18.08 – 60.26 (Mid 33.52)19 companies used · median multiple 0.9x · quartiles 0.5x – 1.7xAEI, AHRT, AIRE, BEEP, CBRE, CHCI, CIGI, CMTG, CURB, CWK, FRPH, GTY, HPP, IIPR, LPA, OPI, TRC, TRNO, UE
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 43.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 9.6% | 86 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EBITDA margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.1% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.7x | 68 (vs peers) | 45% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.5x | 87 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Growth31/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Quality· partial86/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FORESTAR GROUP INC. (FOR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.1%; net margin 9.9%; ROE 9.6%.
The estimated value range is 18.08–60.26 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.52 USD, the price of 24.97 USD leaves a potential of 34.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 43.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 9.6%
- P/E (TTM): 7.5x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EBITDA margin, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Real Estate (SIC 6500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 31 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBRECbre Group, Inc. | 40.7 bn | 30.2 | 16.1% | 3.1% | +13.4% | −13% / +79% |
| VTMXVesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 32.7 bn | 131.8 | 9.1% | 85.4% | +12.2% | +19% / −2% |
| TRNOTerreno Realty Corporation | 7.5 bn | 20.3 | 8.3% | 68.1% | +24.5% | +8% / +19% |
| FSVFirstService Corporation | 7.1 bn | 49.0 | 14.9% | 3.5% | +5.4% | −1% / −1% |
| CIGIColliers International Group Inc. | 4.0 bn | 48.8 | 15.7% | 4.0% | +15.3% | −32% / −5% |
| CURBCurbline Properties Corp. | 3.7 bn | 125.4 | 1.3% | 11.2% | +51.3% | +26% / unavailable |
| CWKCushman & Wakefield Ltd. | 3.5 bn | 50.5 | 3.4% | 0.6% | +8.9% | −11% / +82% |
| UEUrban Edge Properties | 2.7 bn | 24.6 | 7.9% | 22.2% | +6.1% | +10% / +26% |
| GTYGetty Realty Corp. | 1.9 bn | 17.4 | 8.9% | 42.4% | +9.0% | +1% / −2% |
| IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 12.5 | 7.6% | 53.2% | −13.8% | +14% / −31% |
| FORForestar Group Inc. | 1.3 bn | 7.5 | 9.6% | 9.9% | +10.1% | −1% / −6% |
| HPPHudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | 572.8 m | — | -19.8% | -69.1% | −1.3% | −24% / −74% |
| DUOFangdd Network Group Ltd. | 548.5 m | — | -17.9% | -23.9% | +9.2% | −68% / −96% |
| AHRTAh Realty Trust, Inc. | 500.6 m | — | -6.7% | -18.2% | +4.1% | +3% / −38% |
| TRCTejon Ranch Co. | 439.9 m | 71.3 | 1.3% | 10.6% | +18.4% | +0% / +3% |
| FRPHFrp Holdings, Inc. | 360.7 m | 2,041,655.0 | 0.0% | 0.2% | +2.6% | −19% / −32% |
| MLPMaui Land & Pineapple Co Inc | 289.5 m | — | -16.1% | -28.6% | +68.2% | −8% / −2% |
| OPIOffice Properties Income Trust | 285.6 m | — | -40.5% | -73.0% | −11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 261.0 m | — | -36.5% | -391.9% | −24.4% | −44% / −85% |
| CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 165.7 m | 6.7 | 36.4% | 32.2% | +22.6% | +46% / +352% |
| BEEPMobile Infrastructure Corporation | 100.4 m | — | -16.1% | -67.2% | −5.2% | −22% / −54% |
| LPALogistic Properties of the Americas | 78.1 m | 7.5 | 4.3% | 20.9% | +14.3% | −27% / unavailable |
| OZBelpointe PREP, LLC | 47.6 m | — | — | -212.1% | +243.4% | −41% / −50% |
| AEIAlset Inc. | 21.1 m | — | -43.4% | -951.4% | −78.8% | −80% / −54% |
| CWDCalibercos Inc. | 4.7 m | — | — | -117.3% | −60.7% | −80% / −98% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FOR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.58 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 25.79 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 38.87 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 13.74 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 27.39 Total return 10% · Per year 3% | 45.38 Total return 82% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 12.95 Total return -48% · Per year -12% | 29.08 Total return 16% · Per year 3% | 52.98 Total return 112% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 6.85
- Net margin± 4.79
- Annual revenue growth± 3.99
- Annual dilution± 0.40
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Forestar Group is a national residential lot developer that buys land, develops it and sells finished single-family lots to homebuilders. Recent filings show rising revenues and strong liquidity, while housing affordability remains a constraint and D.R. Horton holds a controlling stake.123
SWOT
Strengths
- Broad geographic coverage and strong local teams that diversify regional risk.
- Solid liquidity and low net leverage that provide flexibility in uncertain periods.
- A substantial contracted pipeline of future sales that supports revenue visibility.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on one customer, D.R. Horton, which buys most of the lots.
- Majority control by the principal shareholder, which limits other shareholders' influence.
- Exposure to the cyclicality of the real estate industry and to changes in local economic conditions.
Opportunities
- Consolidating market share in a fragmented sector by expanding into new markets.
- Rising demand for affordable lots if mortgage rates ease.
- Additional customers beyond the D.R. Horton relationship could diversify sales.
Threats
- High mortgage rates could reduce housing affordability and lot demand.
- Municipal approval delays and high development costs could lengthen delivery cycles.
- Inflation or tariffs on imported materials could raise costs and compress margins.
Risks
- Controlling shareholderhigh
The principal shareholder can strongly influence strategic decisions and limit other shareholders' ability to affect voting outcomes.1
- Dependence on the D.R. Horton relationshiphigh
Most lot sales go to a single customer, so revenues could be affected if that relationship changes.1
- Industry cyclicalitymedium
Lot development is sensitive to economic changes, interest rates and consumer confidence.1
- Construction costs and approvalsmedium
Inflation, labour shortages and municipal delays could raise costs and delay deliveries.12
- Interest rate exposuremedium
High mortgage rates could keep demand limited and reduce margins through price adjustments.12
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company has solid liquidity, modest debt and a contracted sales pipeline, which give it flexibility if the market stabilises.
- Revenues and pre-tax income have grown in recent quarters, suggesting the model can work even in difficult conditions.
- A fragmented market offers consolidation opportunities, especially if the company extends its presence into new markets.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on one customer and the controlling shareholder's stake could limit strategic independence and value for other shareholders.
- High mortgage rates and weak affordability could keep demand subdued and pressure prices.
- Development costs remain elevated, and municipal approval delays could reduce margins and delay deliveries.
What to watch
- Full-year financial results and final guidance for fiscal 2026Q4 2026
- Lot deliveries against the 14,000-14,500 range and revenue against 1.6-1.7 billionQ4 2026
- Trends in mortgage rates and housing affordability2027
- Development of the D.R. Horton relationship and sales to other customersnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Forestar Group Inc. is a national residential lot development company based in Arlington, Texas, that invests in land acquisition and development to sell finished single-family lots to homebuilders.13 It runs its operations through a real estate segment, which generates substantially all of its revenues, across 65 markets in 24 states.23 Most projects are single-family communities, and substantially all development work is performed by subcontractors selected through competitive bidding.1
The business model centres on short-duration, entitled projects developed in phases so that sales match market demand, which the company says could produce more consistent returns than other developers.1 It supplies lots to D.R. Horton under a master supply agreement while also selling to other local, regional and national homebuilders.12
The capital structure is relatively conservative: debt is a modest share of total capital, and the company has a revolving credit facility that gives it flexibility in uncertain periods.23
Segments
Residential lot development
The main segment sells finished lots to homebuilders, mainly D.R. Horton, which bought most of the lots sold in fiscal 2025.1
Lot banking and land banking
Short-term investments in finished lots or undeveloped land, sold within a short period, mainly to D.R. Horton, to use available capital before longer-term projects.12
Tract sales and other revenue
Tract land sales and other revenue rose sharply in the nine months of fiscal 2026, adding to total revenues.2
Market context
The market is fragmented, with many local and private developers, and housing demand is shaped by mortgage rates and affordability.1 The company expanded from 64 to 65 markets and from 23 to 24 states, a gradual expansion.12
Builder demand remains affected by cautious consumer sentiment and by incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and these conditions could continue to weigh on prices and volumes.2
Trends
- Low housing affordabilityheadwind
High mortgage rates have reduced affordability and lot demand, pushing the company to adjust prices and incentives.12
- Demand for affordable lotstailwind
The company focuses on lots for affordable homes, the segment with the most demand in the new home market.12
- Municipal approval delaysheadwind
Delays in municipal approvals are extending development cycles and keeping costs elevated in some markets.2
- Easing supply chain disruptionstailwind
Disruptions in construction material supply and labour tightness have largely subsided, shortening construction cycles.2
Competitive position
The company faces competition from local, regional and national developers, including homebuilders that develop their own lots.1 Some competitors are better established or have a lower cost of capital, which can raise land prices.1
The company's advantages are its national footprint, local teams, low net leverage and its strategic relationship with D.R. Horton, which may ease competitive pressure but also limits commercial independence.12
- Local and private lot developers
Most competitors are local or privately owned companies active in land acquisition and development without a significant national share.
- Homebuilders that develop their own lots
Some builders develop the lots on which they then build and sell homes, making them direct competitors for land.
- Regional and national land developers
A few regional and national developers compete for the same land and customers, sometimes with greater financial resources.
- Investors competing for land and financing
Competition for land, financing and labour can increase the bargaining power of owners who are selling.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report22 Jul 2026
- Current report21 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report21 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report22 Jan 2026
- Current report20 Jan 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Jan 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement16 Dec 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Forestar Group Inc. · 19 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Forestar Group Inc. · 22 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Forestar Group Inc. · 21 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.