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olivLaw · US equity research

Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. GTES

General Industrial Machinery & Equipment · SIC 3560 · Vertical: General Industrial Machinery & Equipment (SIC 3560)

24.46USD−0.45% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Gates Industrial makes highly engineered belt drives and hydraulic hoses, sold mostly through the aftermarket, which steadies its revenue across different economic cycles. In the first half of 2026 it grew sales and raised its full-year guidance as industrial demand firmed. The detailed figures are in the profile below.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES) stock was 24.46 USD (−0.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.1 bn USD, P/E 17.0 on diluted EPS of 1.44 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.60, 52-week range 21.04–29.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 903.6 m USD (+5.6% YoY), net income of 86.5 m USD (+6.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.34 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.1 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.44 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.88%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.60
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
21.0429.84

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.7
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
23.95 – 27.34
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 13.2%
SMA 50 / 200
25.96 / 25.77
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.50 / -0.32
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−12.0%−1.1%−10.9 pp—
3 months−16.5%−0.5%−16.1 pp—
6 months−6.8%+4.4%−11.2 pp—
Year to date+13.9%+12.3%+1.6 pp—
1 year+13.9%+13.5%+0.3 pp+19.3%
3 years+110.3%+76.4%+33.9 pp+46.8%
5 years+34.6%+63.7%−29.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−25.0%
24 Feb 2026 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.7%
11 Nov 2021 → 10 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
903.6 m USD
+5.6% YoY
Net income
86.5 m USD
+6.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.34
+9.7% YoY
net / operating
9.6% / 14.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue829.4 m847.6 m883.7 m855.7 m856.2 m851.1 m941.6 m903.6 m
Cost of revenue494.1 m503.0 m523.5 m514.1 m530.9 m513.1 m555.5 m520.3 m
Gross profit335.3 m344.6 m360.2 m341.6 m325.3 m338.0 m386.1 m383.3 m
SG&A223.0 m216.2 m231.2 m219.2 m209.5 m226.9 m250.7 m247.4 m
Operating income109.7 m125.8 m115.8 m115.4 m108.3 m109.9 m131.6 m131.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation54.1 m52.2 m53.3 m53.6 m54.7 m55.7 m57.1 m56.4 m
Interest expense34.1 m29.6 m28.8 m34.9 m32.6 m29.9 m30.0 m30.5 m
Pre-tax income87.9 m93.8 m80.2 m94.8 m71.4 m77.9 m100.2 m108.3 m
Income tax46.7 m25.2 m16.8 m6.1 m15.0 m11.5 m-78.0 m16.7 m
Net income36.6 m62.0 m56.5 m81.6 m51.3 m59.7 m170.9 m86.5 m
Diluted EPS0.14 ≈0.240.220.310.20 ≈0.230.670.34
Operating cash flow190.9 m7.3 m103.0 m ≈98.0 m ≈269.8 m30.2 m78.6 m ≈61.2 m ≈
Capex23.3 m17.5 m19.4 m ≈17.5 m ≈18.8 m16.7 m18.3 m ≈18.8 m ≈
Share repurchases013.0 m0 ≈0 ≈106.3 m16.6 m22.1 m ≈57.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 40 percentile of its own 25-quarter history (min 3.9, median 18.7, max 61.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2018201920212022202320242025
Revenue3.3 bn3.1 bn2.8 bn3.6 bn3.6 bn3.4 bn3.4 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable−7.8%unavailable+27.3%+0.5%−4.5%+1.0%
Net income245.3 m690.1 m79.4 m220.8 m232.9 m194.9 m251.4 m
Net income YoYunavailable+181.3%unavailable+178.1%+5.5%−16.3%+29.0%
Diluted EPS0.842.370.270.770.840.740.96
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+182.1%unavailable+185.2%+9.1%−11.9%+29.7%
net %7.3%22.4%2.8%6.2%6.5%5.7%7.3%
Free cash flow147.4 m276.8 m250.8 m188.2 m419.8 m296.5 m404.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
812.1 m USD
Financial debt
2.2 bn USD
Net debt
1.4 bn USD
Equity
3.7 bn USD
Total assets
7.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.61x
Current ratio
3.37x
ROE
7.2%
ROA
3.6%
FCF margin
11.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
66.0 m
2024
66.5 m
2025
71.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
884.7 m
2024
876.5 m
2025
876.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
460.1 m
2024
472.2 m
2025
465.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
217.5 m
2024
216.9 m
2025
213.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
677.6 m ≈
2024
689.1 m ≈
2025
679.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
163.2 m
2024
155.8 m
2025
125.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
285.3 m
2024
328.0 m
2025
340.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
28.3 m
2024
107.5 m
2025
63.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
232.9 m
2024
194.9 m
2025
251.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.84
2024
0.74
2025
0.96

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
275.6 m
2024
264.7 m
2025
260.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
720.6 m
2024
682.0 m
2025
812.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
768.2 m
2024
722.7 m
2025
744.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
647.2 m
2024
676.0 m
2025
700.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.3 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
36.5 m
2024
39.1 m
2025
36.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
779.3 m
2024
721.5 m
2025
735.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
3.7 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.5 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
481.0 m
2024
379.6 m
2025
478.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
61.2 m
2024
83.1 m
2025
73.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
419.8 m ≈
2024
296.5 m ≈
2025
404.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-81.8 m
2024
-104.4 m
2025
-119.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-258.3 m
2024
-286.7 m
2025
-251.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
251.7 m
2024
176.1 m
2025
119.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
29.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
29.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
36.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
40.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
19.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROCE
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
439.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
72.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
367.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
99.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
62.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
88 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
132 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
7.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
15.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/FCF
16.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.41
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 51 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

24.46 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROE
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 1472derived 95

Score by group

  • Balance sheet60
  • Valuation62
  • Quality48
  • Growth25
  • Returns47

Estimated value range

Low
34.96
USD per share
Mid
37.73
USD per share
High
38.42
USD per share
Price: 24.46 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 54.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 35.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.55 – 64.30 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)19.55 – 36.07 (Mid 25.64)
    WACC 8.2% · starting FCFF 470.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -2.7%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA35.26 – 64.30 (Mid 38.86)
    3 companies used · median multiple 15.8x · quartiles 14.5x – 24.9x
    GHM, IR, ZBRA
  • Peers: P/E34.96 – 38.42 (Mid 37.73)
    6 companies used · median multiple 26.2x · quartiles 24.3x – 26.7x
    EFXT, IR, ITW, TWIN, ZBRA, ZWS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: General Industrial Machinery & Equipment (SIC 3560)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 51/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.6%17 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality10.4%50 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality99.7%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth7.6%51 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.0x58 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.9x37 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.4x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation17.0x75 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.7x39 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation6.0%75 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.3%47 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial47/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. (GTES). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.0%; net margin 10.4%; ROE 10.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.

The estimated value range is 34.96–38.42 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 37.73 USD, the price of 24.46 USD leaves a potential of 54.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 35.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 51/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 99.7%
  • Current ratio: 3.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 17.0x
  • FCF yield: 6.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 7.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

General Industrial Machinery & Equipment (SIC 3560) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
17.0x
vertical median 26.2x
below median (−35.2%)
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
vertical median 15.8x
below median (−32.4%)
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 2.8x
below median (−39.0%)
P/B
1.7x
vertical median 3.7x
below median (−52.9%)
ROE
10.6%
vertical median 16.2%
below median (−34.3%)
Net margin
10.4%
vertical median 11.1%
below median (−6.3%)
EBIT margin
13.5%
vertical median 15.6%
below median (−13.0%)
Revenue YoY
1.0%
vertical median 8.2%
below median (−87.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.0x
vertical median -0.3x
above median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc83.4 bn26.1101.7%19.4%+0.9%+18% / +21%
IRIngersoll Rand Inc.32.3 bn23.713.4%17.2%+5.7%+5% / +18%
ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation15.7 bn26.816.5%9.8%+8.3%+32% / +40%
ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation7.5 bn26.317.7%15.9%+8.3%−5% / +53%
GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd.6.1 bn17.010.6%10.4%+1.0%+14% / +110%
EFXTEnerflex Ltd2.5 bn39.36.0%2.5%+6.5%+46% / +377%
GHMGraham Corporation816.0 m67.17.5%4.5%+16.9%+21% / +275%
TWINTwin Disc, Incorporated370.7 m11.916.3%8.0%+11.9%+64% / +86%
GTECGreenland Technologies Holding Corporation10.7 m0.916.0%12.3%+8.0%−51% / −79%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GTES from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
13.92
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
24.69
Total return 1% · Per year 1%
37.28
Total return 52% · Per year 52%
3 years
12.05
Total return -51% · Per year -21%
24.17
Total return -1% · Per year -0%
40.28
Total return 65% · Per year 18%
5 years
10.42
Total return -57% · Per year -16%
23.67
Total return -3% · Per year -1%
43.53
Total return 78% · Per year 12%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 6.04
  • Net margin± 4.23
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.67
  • Annual dilution± 0.36

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

In brief

Gates Industrial makes highly engineered belt drives and hydraulic hoses, sold mostly through the aftermarket, which steadies its revenue across different economic cycles. In the first half of 2026 it grew sales and raised its full-year guidance as industrial demand firmed. The detailed figures are in the profile below 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a recognised premium brand and a large share of revenue from replacement parts with recurring demand 1.
  • The broad two-segment portfolio reduces dependence on any single end market 1.
  • Management raised 2026 guidance and reports solid cash generation 3.

Weaknesses

  • A significant part of the business depends on international markets with political and currency risk 1.
  • The company generally has no long-term pricing contracts for raw materials, which exposes margins to cost swings 1.
  • The Fluid Power segment margin declined in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Opportunities

  • Demand for data centre cooling and personal mobility could grow 2.
  • Emerging markets offer growth potential in the aftermarket channel, which is still under-developed there 1.
  • A recovery in industrial investment could support OEM orders 3.

Threats

  • Tariffs and trade disputes could raise costs and reduce demand 12.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains 3.
  • Distributors that favour rival products could reduce the company's sales 1.

Risks

  • U.S. trade policyhigh

    Tariffs and trade measures are hard to anticipate, and the company may not be able to pass all the costs on to customers 1.

  • International exposuremedium

    Most sales come from outside the United States, where political, currency and regulatory risks are higher 1.

  • Raw material costsmedium

    Swings in the prices of energy and metals could reduce margins if they are not offset 1.

  • Reliance on distributorsmedium

    Changes in relationships with distribution partners or in their inventory levels can quickly affect sales 1.

  • Operational continuitylow

    A natural disaster, system outage or plant disruption could affect production and customers 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If industrial demand keeps recovering, the sales growth seen in the second quarter could be sustained through the year 3.
  • The large share of aftermarket revenue could stabilise sales during periods of slowdown 1.
  • Expansion into personal mobility and data centres could open new sources of growth 2.

What would break the thesis

  • Tariffs and trade tensions could weigh on margins more than anticipated 2.
  • The Fluid Power margin declined in the second quarter, which could signal cost pressure 3.
  • Debt remains substantial, and financing costs could limit flexibility in a slowdown 1.

What to watch

  • Development of tariffs and IEEPA refundsQ3 2026
  • Delivery against updated guidance for core sales and adjusted EBITDA2026
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin of the Fluid Power segmentQ3 2026
  • Progress in data centre and personal mobility salesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

The business

Gates Industrial is a global manufacturer of highly engineered power transmission and fluid power solutions, headquartered in the United States. It reported net sales of 3443.2 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, and most of its revenue comes from the aftermarket channel, where products are replaced periodically through wear. The Gates brand, founded in 1911, is recognised as a premium name for quality and innovation 1.

The business is organised into two reporting segments. Power Transmission covers belts, chains and metal drive components used in industrial machinery, car engines and personal mobility vehicles, and represented about 62% of fiscal 2025 sales 1. Fluid Power covers high-pressure hoses, tubing and fittings, and in 2025 the company extended its range for data centre liquid cooling 1.

Net sales for the first half of 2026 reached 1792.7 million USD 2, and in the second quarter they rose 6.6% year on year, with core sales up 4.9% 3. Management raised its 2026 guidance, citing improving industrial demand 3.

Market context

The company's demand depends more on the utilisation of industrial equipment than on any single end market, thanks to its diversification across segments and channels. Aftermarket sales accounted for about 68% of fiscal 2025 net sales 1, which cushions periods when new equipment production slows. OEM sales made up the remaining 32% 1.

International activity is important: about 63% of fiscal 2025 net sales came from outside the United States 1. The company says it sees growth opportunities in personal mobility and data centres, although these areas remain small within total revenue 23.

Trends

  • Recovery in industrial demandtailwind

    Management says it has seen improving orders globally and that it could benefit if industrial demand keeps strengthening 3. If the recovery holds, OEM channel revenue could grow.

  • Tariffs and international trademixed

    U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures have raised costs and created uncertainty in supply chains 2. The company has filed claims for refunds of IEEPA-based tariffs paid, and the final effect remains to be seen 2.

  • Growth in data centre and personal mobility marketstailwind

    Sales in the personal mobility end market grew strongly in the first half of 2026, and data centre cooling products are being developed 2. If these directions expand, they could complement the traditional aftermarket business.

  • Raw material and inflation costsheadwind

    Prices of energy, steel, aluminium and polymers have fluctuated and could affect margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported added inflation and tariff costs 2.

Competitive position

The supplied sources do not name competitors, so the competitive analysis is limited to what the company says about its own position. Gates says it is an industry leader across most of its end markets and that its premium brand supports its pricing 1. The company notes that some distributors also sell rival products, which can shift volumes quickly 1.

Competition also appears through pricing and distribution access: the company acknowledges that if these partners favour rival products, sales could decline 1. Its advantage could depend on innovation and application engineering services, which management highlights in its filings 1.

  • Belt and hose manufacturers in Europe and Asia

    Not named in the sources; the company only notes that distributors can sell rival products 1.

  • Mobile hydraulic component suppliers

    Competitors in mobile hydraulics, not named in the supplied sources 1.

  • Automotive aftermarket parts producers

    Competitors in the automotive aftermarket channel, not named in the supplied sources 1.

  • Data centre cooling solution providers

    Competitors in the emerging liquid cooling market, not named in the supplied sources 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Gates Industrial Corporation Ltd. · 31 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.