olivLaw · US equity research
Gray Media, Inc. GTN
Television Broadcasting Stations · SIC 4833 · Vertical: Television Broadcasting Stations (SIC 4833)
Gray Media is one of the largest owners of top-rated local television stations in the United States, with stations reaching about 37% of US television households. The company is benefiting from a favourable election cycle, with political advertising revenue rising sharply in 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) stock was 4.98 USD (+6.18% on the day), with dividend yield 6.43%, beta 1.14, 52-week range 3.58–6.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 839.0 m USD (+8.7% YoY), net income of 14.0 m USD, diluted EPS 0.21 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.19 – 4.88
- above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 15.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.64 / 4.60
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.6% | −1.1% | +8.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.5% | −0.5% | +14.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.9% | +4.4% | −14.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.9% | +12.3% | −9.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.2% | +13.5% | −3.4 pp | −3.7% |
| 3 years | −35.9% | +76.4% | −112.3 pp | +21.1% |
| 5 years | −78.7% | +63.7% | −142.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 950.0 m | 1.0 bn | 782.0 m | 772.0 m | 749.0 m | 792.0 m | 768.0 m | 839.0 m |
| Operating income | 250.0 m | 325.0 m | 92.0 m | 82.0 m | 102.0 m | 116.0 m | 81.0 m | 136.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 67.0 m ≈ | 67.0 m | 63.0 m | 60.0 m ≈ | 56.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m | 65.0 m | 55.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 130.0 m | 122.0 m | 118.0 m | 117.0 m | 120.0 m | 119.0 m | 117.0 m | 117.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 128.0 m | 216.0 m | -24.0 m | -35.0 m | -28.0 m | -26.0 m | -28.0 m | 19.0 m |
| Income tax | 32.0 m | 47.0 m | -15.0 m | 21.0 m | -18.0 m | -16.0 m | -8.0 m | 5.0 m |
| Net income | 96.0 m | 169.0 m | -9.0 m | -56.0 m | -10.0 m | -10.0 m | -20.0 m | 14.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.86 | 1.76 ≈ | -0.23 | -0.71 | -0.24 | -0.10 ≈ | -0.34 | 0.21 |
| Operating cash flow | 297.0 m ≈ | 368.0 m | 132.0 m | 31.0 m ≈ | 14.0 m ≈ | 112.0 m | 1.0 m | 123.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 40.0 m ≈ | 40.0 m | 15.0 m | 25.0 m ≈ | 25.0 m ≈ | 43.0 m | 19.0 m | 17.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 8.0 m ≈ | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m ≈ | 8.0 m ≈ | 9.0 m | 9.0 m | 8.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +22.8% | +95.8% | +12.2% | +1.3% | +52.3% | −10.7% | +11.1% | −15.1% |
| Net income | 211.0 m | 179.0 m | 410.0 m | 90.0 m | 455.0 m | -76.0 m | 375.0 m | -85.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −19.5% | −15.2% | +129.1% | −78.0% | +405.6% | −116.7% | unavailable | −122.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.37 | 1.27 | 3.69 | 0.40 | 4.33 | -1.39 | 3.36 | -1.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −33.2% | −46.4% | +190.6% | −89.2% | +982.5% | −132.1% | unavailable | −142.0% |
| net % | 19.5% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 3.7% | 12.4% | -2.3% | 10.3% | -2.7% |
| Free cash flow | 253.0 m | 275.0 m | 542.0 m | 93.0 m | 393.0 m | 300.0 m | 608.0 m | 181.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 368.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 10.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.66x
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- -3.8%
- ROA
- -0.8%
- FCF margin
- 5.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 752.0 m | 381.0 m | 990.0 m | 383.0 m | 851.0 m | 392.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 201.0 m | 221.0 m | 336.0 m | 339.0 m | 269.0 m | 237.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 953.0 m ≈ | 602.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 722.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 629.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 191.0 m | 205.0 m | 354.0 m | 440.0 m | 485.0 m | 474.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 544.0 m | 168.0 m | 614.0 m | -82.0 m | 492.0 m | -113.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 134.0 m | 78.0 m | 159.0 m | -6.0 m | 117.0 m | -28.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 410.0 m | 90.0 m | 455.0 m | -76.0 m | 375.0 m | -85.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.69 | 0.40 | 4.33 | -1.39 | 3.36 | -1.41 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 97.0 m | 95.0 m | 93.0 m | 92.0 m | 96.0 m | 97.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 773.0 m | 189.0 m | 61.0 m | 21.0 m | 135.0 m | 368.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 425.0 m | 624.0 m | 650.0 m | 342.0 m | 337.0 m | 205.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 963.0 m | 857.0 m | 468.0 m | 541.0 m | 656.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 737.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.6 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.6 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.0 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 255.0 m | 384.0 m | 409.0 m | 395.0 m | 527.0 m | 516.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.2 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.8 bn † | 1.8 bn † | 2.1 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.3 bn † | 2.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 652.0 m | 300.0 m | 829.0 m | 648.0 m | 751.0 m | 289.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 110.0 m | 207.0 m | 436.0 m | 348.0 m | 143.0 m | 108.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 542.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m ≈ | 393.0 m ≈ | 300.0 m ≈ | 608.0 m ≈ | 181.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -211.0 m | -3.5 bn | -503.0 m | -291.0 m | -28.0 m | -63.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 120.0 m | 2.7 bn | -454.0 m | -397.0 m | -609.0 m | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 31.0 m | 30.0 m | 30.0 m | 32.0 m | 33.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 75.0 m | 30.0 m | 50.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.21 – 5.66 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.21 – 5.66 (Mid 4.82)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.8% | 50 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.8% | 30 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -5.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 8.4x | 0 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 23.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Gray Media, Inc. (GTN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -15.1%; net margin -0.8%; ROE -1.2%; net debt/EBITDA 8.4x.
The estimated value range is 4.21–5.66 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.82 USD, the price of 4.98 USD leaves a potential of -3.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Payout ratio (FCF): 23.3%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -0.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -5.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 8.4x
- Interest coverage: 0.9x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Television Broadcasting Stations (SIC 4833) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSKYSkydance Corp | 10.5 bn | — | — | — | −1.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
| NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc. | 5.7 bn | 34.0 | 8.3% | 3.2% | −8.5% | −4% / +30% |
| FOXFox Corporation | 62 | 13.0 | 16.8% | 11.6% | +5.1% | +6% / +123% |
| SSPThe E.w. Scripps Company | — | — | -174.7% | -58.0% | −14.3% | −9% / −45% |
| TVGrupo Televisa, S.A.B. | — | — | -7.5% | -13.3% | −6.0% | −15% / −29% |
| FENGPhoenix New Media Limited | — | — | 15.4% | 30.2% | −15.8% | −34% / −5% |
| VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc. | — | — | 9.0% | 11.1% | −5.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| GTNGray Media, Inc. | — | — | -1.2% | -0.8% | −15.1% | +10% / −36% |
| FWONALiberty Media Corporation | — | — | 5.4% | 9.4% | +22.7% | +4% / +59% |
| NMAXNewsmax Inc. | — | — | -5.8% | -3.2% | +10.7% | −2% / unavailable |
| EVCEntravision Communications Corporation | — | 710.6 | 4.8% | 0.6% | +22.6% | +162% / +83% |
| SBGISinclair, Inc. | — | 10.2 | 25.4% | 2.8% | −10.7% | −11% / +12% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GTN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Gray Media is one of the largest owners of top-rated local television stations in the United States, with stations reaching about 37% of US television households 1. The company is benefiting from a favourable election cycle, with political advertising revenue rising sharply in 2026 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading local audience positions in many markets, supported by local news and a broad affiliation portfolio.
- National reach and a large Telemundo affiliate group that diversify revenue.
- Experience in acquisitions and debt refinancing, including early repayments of credit.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on core advertising and on the election cycle, with very uneven revenue between years.
- High leverage and substantial interest costs.
- Concentration on a few networks and a few advertising sectors such as services and automotive.
Opportunities
- Political revenue in election years could rise well above non-election levels.
- The move to NextGen TV and monetisation of secondary channels could create new revenue.
- Selective station acquisitions could extend reach if integration goes well.
Threats
- A decline in cable and satellite subscribers could reduce retransmission revenue.
- Competition from streaming and digital platforms could erode the advertising share.
- Changes in retransmission rules and FCC licensing could alter operating conditions.
Risks
- Dependence on political advertisinghigh
Political revenue can fall sharply in odd years, which would affect financial results.
- Expiry of network affiliation agreementshigh
If affiliations are not renewed on favourable terms, programming and revenue could be affected.
- Retransmission and subscribersmedium
Loss of subscribers or a dispute with a distributor could reduce retransmission income.
- Debt and interest costsmedium
High debt limits financial flexibility, especially if market conditions worsen.
- Regulation and acquisitionslow
Regulatory approvals could delay or block planned acquisitions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Third-quarter results and political revenueQ3 2026
- Refinancing of the credit facility2026
- Renewal of network affiliation agreements2027
- Trend in retransmission subscribers in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Gray Media, Inc. is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, earning revenue mainly from broadcast and digital advertising and from retransmission consent fees 1. Total revenue was 3.1 billion USD in 2025 1, and reached 1.6 billion USD in the first six months of 2026 2.
The company owns stations affiliated with CBS, NBC, ABC and FOX, the largest Telemundo affiliate group, and Gray Digital Media, along with video production and studio businesses 1. Its strategy rests on local leadership in audience ratings and selective station acquisitions 1.
Margins depend on programming costs and on affiliation agreements that expire between mid-2027 and December 31, 2028 1. The company has also been reducing its debt through repayments and refinancing 1.
Segments
Television stations and local advertising
The core segment comprises station broadcasting and core advertising, which made up about 47% of 2025 revenue 1. Revenue depends on programme popularity and local audiences 1.
Market context
The core market is local and national television advertising, which is sensitive to the economic cycle and to political spending 1. The company says television remains the dominant mass-market advertising medium despite streaming competition 1.
The election cycle makes revenue very uneven between even and odd years, complicating period-on-period comparisons 1. The company relies on network affiliations and retransmission agreements 1.
Trends
- The 2026 political cycletailwind
Political advertising revenue in 2026 could substantially exceed the 2025 level if the third-quarter estimates hold 3.
- Pressure on core advertisingheadwind
Macroeconomic softness has weighed on core advertising, and pressure could persist if advertising budgets shrink 2.
- Retransmission and subscriptionsmixed
A decline in cable and satellite subscribers has cut retransmission income, partly offset by rate increases 12.
- Station acquisitionsmixed
Recent 2026 acquisitions added revenue but also integration and staffing costs 2.
Competitive position
Stations compete with other broadcasters for audiences, programming and advertisers, and cable networks, streaming and digital platforms have increased competitive pressure 1. Television nevertheless remains the main mass-market advertising channel 1.
Competition also depends on carriage on cable and satellite systems, which can remove a station from a platform, as happened in 2026 12. Network affiliation helps but makes the company dependent on those networks 1.
- Sinclair, Inc.SBGI
US local television group operating stations affiliated with major networks.
- Nexstar Media GroupNXST
US local station operator competing directly for advertising and retransmission fees.
- Scripps (E. W. Scripps Company)SSP
Television group with which Gray swapped stations in 2026.
- Streaming and digital platforms
Competitors for audiences and advertising without a single comparable listed issuer.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Gray Media, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Gray Media, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Gray Media, Inc. · 28 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.