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olivLaw · US equity research

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. NXST

Television Broadcasting Stations · SIC 4833 · Vertical: Television Broadcasting Stations (SIC 4833)

185.12USD+3.67% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Nexstar Media Group is the largest local television broadcaster in the United States, with affiliates of the major networks, The CW and the NewsNation news channel. After the TEGNA acquisition, completed in March 2026, the company runs a much broader portfolio, and quarterly revenue reached a record driven by political advertising. The antitrust process and integration still raise important questions for the period ahead.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) stock was 185.12 USD (+3.67% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.7 bn USD, P/E 34.0 on diluted EPS of 5.44 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.02%, beta 0.77, 52-week range 154.70–253.64 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 2.0 bn USD (+62.2% YoY), net income of 120.0 m USD (+23.7% YoY), diluted EPS 3.61 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.7 bn USD
shares as of 07 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.0
Diluted EPS TTM 5.44 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.94%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
4.02%
DPS 12m 7.44
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 37%
52-week range
154.70253.64

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.6
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
154.62 – 180.20
above the upper band · %B 1.19 · band width 15.3%
SMA 50 / 200
167.55 / 191.87
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.30 / 1.02
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+18.2%−1.1%+19.3 pp—
3 months−2.6%−0.5%−2.1 pp—
6 months−6.1%+4.4%−10.5 pp—
Year to date−8.8%+12.3%−21.1 pp—
1 year−6.7%+13.5%−20.2 pp−1.9%
3 years+18.0%+76.4%−58.4 pp+3.5%
5 years+10.5%+63.7%−53.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−39.0%
05 Mar 2026 → 25 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−39.0%
05 Mar 2026 → 25 Jun 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+2.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
2.0 bn USD
+62.2% YoY
Net income
120.0 m USD
+23.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.61
+18.0% YoY
net / operating
6.0% / 18.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.4 bn1.5 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn2.0 bn
SG&A277.0 m270.0 m257.0 m262.0 m270.0 m273.0 m327.0 m457.0 m
Operating income335.0 m417.0 m220.0 m213.0 m175.0 m242.0 m265.0 m362.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation190.0 m-104.0 m117.0 m118.0 m190.0 m-121.0 m121.0 m158.0 m
Interest expense113.0 m———94.0 m———
Pre-tax income244.0 m337.0 m138.0 m130.0 m96.0 m-214.0 m153.0 m177.0 m
Income tax64.0 m107.0 m41.0 m39.0 m31.0 m-44.0 m-7.0 m64.0 m
Net income187.0 m242.0 m108.0 m97.0 m70.0 m-166.0 m164.0 m120.0 m
Diluted EPS5.277.69 ≈3.373.062.14-5.40 ≈5.093.61
Operating cash flow387.0 m ≈411.0 m337.0 m247.0 m ≈117.0 m ≈190.0 m289.0 m298.0 m ≈
Capex29.0 m ≈35.0 m35.0 m29.0 m ≈30.0 m ≈54.0 m22.0 m45.0 m ≈
Dividends paid55.0 m ≈52.0 m57.0 m56.0 m ≈56.0 m ≈57.0 m56.0 m57.0 m ≈
Share repurchases177.0 m ≈178.0 m75.0 m50.0 m ≈0 ≈0——

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 6.1, median 9.2, max 64.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019⚠ 202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.8 bn3.0 bn4.5 bn4.6 bn5.2 bn4.9 bn5.4 bn4.9 bn
Revenue YoY+13.8%+9.9%—+3.3%+12.1%−5.3%+9.6%−8.5%
Net income389.5 m230.3 m811.5 m834.0 m971.0 m346.0 m722.0 m109.0 m
Net income YoY−18.0%−40.9%—+2.8%+16.4%−64.4%+108.7%−84.9%
Diluted EPS8.214.8017.3718.9824.169.6421.413.00
Diluted EPS YoY−18.5%−41.5%—+9.3%+27.3%−60.1%+122.1%−86.0%
net %14.1%7.6%18.0%17.9%18.6%7.0%13.4%2.2%
Free cash flow630.6 m220.0 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn850.0 m1.1 bn743.0 m

The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
280.0 m USD
Financial debt
6.3 bn USD
Net debt
6.1 bn USD
Equity
2.0 bn USD
Total assets
10.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.10x
Current ratio
2.07x
ROE
5.1%
ROA
1.0%
FCF margin
15.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.9 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
708.0 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
849.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
488.0 m
2024
484.0 m
2025
471.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.2 bn ≈
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
1.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
401.0 m
2024
959.0 m
2025
150.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
131.0 m
2024
276.0 m
2025
67.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
346.0 m
2024
722.0 m
2025
109.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
9.64
2024
21.41
2025
3.00

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
35.8 m
2024
32.8 m
2025
30.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
5.40
2024
6.76
2025
7.44

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
135.0 m
2024
144.0 m
2025
280.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.1 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
12.1 bn
2024
11.5 bn
2025
10.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
235.0 m
2024
133.0 m
2025
133.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
124.0 m
2024
124.0 m
2025
111.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
6.7 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
961.0 m
2024
783.0 m
2025
711.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
9.8 bn
2024
9.2 bn
2025
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
999.0 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
891.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
149.0 m
2024
145.0 m
2025
148.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
850.0 m ≈
2024
1.1 bn ≈
2025
743.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-173.0 m
2024
-102.0 m
2025
-173.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-899.0 m
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-582.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
191.0 m
2024
219.0 m
2025
226.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
605.0 m
2024
601.0 m
2025
125.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-33.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-84.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-51.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-33.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-86.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-50.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-29.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-32.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
23.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
17.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
136.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
30.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
11.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
8.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
5.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
894.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
151.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
743.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
395.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
64.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
81 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
17.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
30.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 47 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

185.12 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
34.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 07 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 2483derived 155

Score by group

  • Balance sheet32
  • Valuation37
  • Quality82
  • Growth0
  • Returns93

Estimated value range

Low
97.77
USD per share
Mid
112.15
USD per share
High
131.48
USD per share
Price: 185.12 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -39.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -65.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 97.77 – 131.48 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)97.77 – 131.48 (Mid 112.15)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Television Broadcasting Stations (SIC 4833)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 47/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.5%83 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality3.2%60 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality395.2%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.7%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-50.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet8.3x20 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x63 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation34.0x0 (on a fixed band)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation12.4x24 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation13.0%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns6.2%88 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns30.4%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns93/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (NXST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -8.5%; net margin 3.2%; ROE 8.3%; net debt/EBITDA 8.3x.

The estimated value range is 97.77–131.48 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 112.15 USD, the price of 185.12 USD leaves a potential of -39.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -65.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 7.5%
  • FCF conversion: 395.2%
  • FCF yield: 13.0%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 30.4%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -50.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 8.3x
  • P/E (TTM): 34.0x
  • EV/EBITDA: 12.4x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Television Broadcasting Stations (SIC 4833) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
34.0x
vertical median 13.0x
above median (+161.2%)
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
vertical median —
P/S
1.0x
vertical median —
P/B
2.5x
vertical median —
ROE
8.3%
vertical median 5.1%
above median (+62.0%)
Net margin
3.2%
vertical median 1.7%
above median (+85.0%)
EBIT margin
17.8%
vertical median 3.1%
above median (+477.7%)
Revenue YoY
-8.5%
vertical median -5.3%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
8.3x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+260.8%)
Dividend yield
4.0%
vertical median 6.4%
below median (−37.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PSKYSkydance Corp10.5 bn———−1.5%unavailable / unavailable
NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc.5.7 bn34.08.3%3.2%−8.5%−7% / +18%
FOXFox Corporation6213.016.8%11.6%+5.1%+6% / +123%
SSPThe E.w. Scripps Company——-174.7%-58.0%−14.3%−9% / −45%
TVGrupo Televisa, S.A.B.——-7.5%-13.3%−6.0%−15% / −29%
FENGPhoenix New Media Limited——15.4%30.2%−15.8%−34% / −5%
VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.——9.0%11.1%−5.3%unavailable / unavailable
GTNGray Media, Inc.——-1.2%-0.8%−15.1%+1% / −36%
FWONALiberty Media Corporation——5.4%9.4%+22.7%+4% / +59%
NMAXNewsmax Inc.——-5.8%-3.2%+10.7%−2% / unavailable
EVCEntravision Communications Corporation—710.64.8%0.6%+22.6%+162% / +83%
SBGISinclair, Inc.—10.225.4%2.8%−10.7%−11% / +12%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NXST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
115.09
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
204.12
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
308.35
Total return 70% · Per year 70%
3 years
98.20
Total return -40% · Per year -16%
197.22
Total return 16% · Per year 5%
329.01
Total return 90% · Per year 24%
5 years
83.79
Total return -44% · Per year -11%
190.56
Total return 19% · Per year 3%
351.05
Total return 111% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 49.31
  • Net margin± 34.51
  • Annual revenue growth± 30.12
  • Annual dilution± 2.90

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Nexstar Media Group is the largest local television broadcaster in the United States, with affiliates of the major networks, The CW and the NewsNation news channel. After the TEGNA acquisition, completed in March 2026, the company runs a much broader portfolio, and quarterly revenue reached a record driven by political advertising. The antitrust process and integration still raise important questions for the period ahead.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has very broad local reach, with affiliates of the major networks and a strong position in local markets. Its national networks and digital platforms let it sell advertising both locally and nationally.
  • Diversified revenue across distribution and advertising reduces reliance on a single source. The company has shown the ability to generate positive operating cash flow and to reduce debt in some periods.
  • Its positions in contested election markets and its scale give it access to political advertising, which raises revenue in election years.

Weaknesses

  • Debt is large, and interest costs could limit the company's ability to invest or return capital to shareholders, as its disclosures note.
  • Distribution revenue depends on the subscriber base of traditional pay-TV operators, which is declining. A large share of fixed costs can magnify the effect of any revenue decline.
  • The company recorded major impairments, including on its investment in TV Food Network, which shows the exposure of its cable assets.

Opportunities

  • Integrating TEGNA could bring cost synergies and a wider presence in important markets, if the process concludes successfully.
  • Growing The CW and NewsNation through streaming partnerships could open new sources of advertising and distribution revenue.
  • The ATSC 3.0 standard could allow new data transmission services if it is adopted widely.

Threats

  • The antitrust case and the preliminary measures imposed by the court could delay or change the TEGNA integration.
  • Regulatory decisions on ownership limits could change the consolidation conditions in the sector.
  • Competition from digital platforms and streaming could reduce traditional advertising budgets.

Risks

  • Antitrust case over TEGNAhigh

    A court issued a preliminary injunction requiring the two companies to be held separate during the litigation. The outcome could change expected synergies and the integration timeline.

  • High debt loadhigh

    Consolidated debt is very large, and interest costs could limit financial flexibility if market conditions worsen.

  • Decline in distribution subscribersmedium

    Losing subscribers at traditional pay-TV operators could reduce retransmission revenue, which is priced per subscriber.

  • FCC regulationmedium

    Changes to ownership rules or a refusal to renew station licenses could affect station operations.

  • Asset impairmentlow

    The stake in TV Food Network has already been impaired. Further impairments of goodwill or other assets could affect results.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the TEGNA integration proceeds as planned, the company could capture significant synergies, and adjusted revenue and cash flow could strengthen in the second half of the year.
  • Political advertising in an election year and growing streaming revenue could support top-line results in the near term.
  • Growing NewsNation audience and The CW partnerships could open new revenue sources less dependent on cable.

What would break the thesis

  • If the antitrust process drags on, the TEGNA integration could be delayed and costs could rise.
  • High debt could limit the company's ability to reduce leverage or return capital to shareholders.
  • A continued fall in pay-TV subscribers could weaken distribution revenue over the longer term.

What to watch

  • Outcome of the antitrust case and the Ninth Circuit appealQ4 2026
  • FCC decision on the national ownership cap for television stations2026
  • Realization of TEGNA synergies and integration in quarterly resultsQ3 2026
  • Trends in political advertising and distribution subscribers in the annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a diversified media group producing and distributing local and national news, sports and entertainment through its television stations and digital platforms. In 2025 the company generated net revenue of 4.9 billion USD 1, and its sources describe an operator with local stations in 116 markets and its own national networks. Revenue rests mainly on distribution and advertising, and in election years political advertising plays an important role.

The core business is broadcast television through affiliations with CBS, FOX, NBC, ABC, The CW and MyNetworkTV. The company held an 81.1% interest in The CW as of June 30, 2026 2, along with the NewsNation news channel and digital properties such as The Hill, Locked On and BestReviews 2. Local operations are supported by market-level advertising sales, which account for a significant share of advertising revenue.

After the TEGNA acquisition closed on March 19, 2026, the company reports Broadcast and TEGNA as segments 2. Results for the second quarter of 2026 show that the integration added significant revenue, while consolidated debt rose considerably 3.

Segments

Distribution

Distribution revenue is the largest part of net revenue, made up of retransmission and carriage fees paid by cable, satellite and streaming platforms. In the first half of 2026 distribution revenue reached 1,954 million USD 3, and this component depends on the subscriber base of traditional pay-TV operators.

Advertising

Advertising includes local and national sales, digital platforms and political advertising, which rises in election years. In the second quarter of 2026 advertising revenue grew strongly year-over-year, mainly because of the TEGNA acquisition and political advertising 3.

The CW and NewsNation

The national networks are the portfolio through which the company develops its national audience. The CW signed distribution partnerships with ESPN and Roku, and NewsNation grew sharply in viewers in June 2026 3. The company describes these assets as a longer-term growth direction.

Market context

The U.S. local television market depends on advertising, retransmission fees and election cycles. The company says its station group reaches about 70% of U.S. television households, counting partner stations and excluding the UHF discount 1. Sources also point to a decline in subscribers to traditional pay-TV operators, which can weigh on distribution revenue.

FCC regulation is an important factor: the national ownership cap and top-four combination rules are under review, and some decisions could change the conditions for acquisitions and mergers in the sector 1. The antitrust process around TEGNA remains open and may influence how the market consolidates.

Trends

  • Decline of pay-TV subscribersheadwind

    The number of cable and satellite subscribers falls as consumers move to streaming. Retransmission contracts are priced per subscriber, so a faster decline would reduce distribution revenue 1.

  • Political advertising in election yearstailwind

    In election years political advertising lifts the company's revenue. The sources show that 2026 is an election year and that political advertising contributed to the quarterly record 3.

  • Growth of streaming and digital platformstailwind

    The company adds advertising revenue from streaming, apps and connected TV platforms, and its sources mention growth in these revenues across local markets 3.

  • Consolidation and antitrust litigationmixed

    Integration of TEGNA and the lawsuits brought by DIRECTV and state attorneys general could delay the expected benefits or impose extra conditions if courts so decide 3.

Competitive position

The company competes with other local television groups, streaming platforms and technology companies that attract digital advertising. The sources note that traditional media advertising becomes less attractive when large digital platforms capture budgets, and competition for programming and affiliations can limit growth 1.

Locally, the main rivals are other station groups operating in the same markets. The sources do not explicitly name other publicly traded competitors, so the list below relies on what appears in the company's own documents.

  • TEGNA Inc.

    Local television company acquired by Nexstar, whose operations are now included in the TEGNA segment 2.

  • Other local television station groups

    Operators controlling stations in the same local markets and competing for advertising and audience 1.

  • Streaming and technology platforms

    Digital companies competing for advertising budgets and audience attention, as described in the company's risk factors 1.

  • Cable news networks

    Operators competing with NewsNation for news audience, especially in prime time 3.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 13 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Nexstar Media Group, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Nexstar Media Group, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Nexstar Media Group, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.