olivLaw · US equity research
HPQ HPQ
Computer & office Equipment · SIC 3570 · Vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 357x)
HP Inc. (HPQ) is a global technology company with activities in personal computers, printing and 3D printing. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 net revenue reached 15.7 billion USD, up 12.5%, and the company raised its full-year non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow outlook. The risk profile remains tied to component costs, tariffs and competition in printing.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, HPQ (HPQ) stock was 29.93 USD (+5.87% on the day), with market capitalisation 27.0 bn USD, P/E 11.4 on diluted EPS of 2.62 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.94%, beta 1.07, 52-week range 18.20–35.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 15.7 bn USD (+12.5% YoY), net income of 661.0 m USD (−13.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.71 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.65 – 34.55
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 22.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 31.69 / 24.66
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.46 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.9% | −1.1% | −3.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.9% | −0.5% | +5.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +39.8% | +4.4% | +35.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +34.3% | +12.3% | +22.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +15.4% | +13.5% | +1.8 pp | +48.7% |
| 3 years | +9.2% | +76.4% | −67.3 pp | +146.2% |
| 5 years | −6.3% | +63.7% | −70.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.1 bn | 13.5 bn | 13.2 bn | 13.9 bn | 14.6 bn | 14.4 bn | 14.4 bn | 15.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 11.1 bn | 10.7 bn | 10.5 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.7 bn |
| Gross profit | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Research & development | 392.0 m | 397.0 m | 401.0 m | 406.0 m | 398.0 m | 392.0 m | 432.0 m | 389.0 m |
| SG&A | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Operating income | 991.0 m | 845.0 m | 654.0 m | 716.0 m | 959.0 m | 759.0 m | 612.0 m | 892.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 208.0 m | 197.0 m | 205.0 m ≈ | 306.0 m ≈ | 208.0 m | 214.0 m | 264.0 m ≈ | 244.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 109.0 m | 104.0 m | 114.0 m | 111.0 m | 101.0 m | 99.0 m | 98.0 m | 96.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 862.0 m | 704.0 m | 506.0 m | 624.0 m | 834.0 m | 671.0 m | 493.0 m | 798.0 m |
| Income tax | -44.0 m | 139.0 m | 100.0 m | -139.0 m | 39.0 m | 126.0 m | 43.0 m | 137.0 m |
| Net income | 906.0 m | 565.0 m | 406.0 m | 763.0 m | 795.0 m | 545.0 m | 450.0 m | 661.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 ≈ | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.80 | 0.84 ≈ | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.6 bn | 374.0 m | 38.0 m ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn | 383.0 m | 926.0 m ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 153.0 m | 302.0 m | 183.0 m ≈ | 215.0 m ≈ | 197.0 m | 233.0 m | 170.0 m ≈ | 187.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 263.0 m | 273.0 m | 273.0 m ≈ | 272.0 m ≈ | 270.0 m | 277.0 m | 274.0 m ≈ | 274.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 900.0 m | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 200.0 m | 500.0 m | 325.0 m | 100.0 m | 300.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 77 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 4.7, median 9.1, max 14.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 58.5 bn | 58.8 bn | 56.6 bn | 63.5 bn | 62.9 bn | 53.7 bn | 53.6 bn | 55.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.3% | +0.5% | −3.6% | +12.0% | −0.9% | −14.6% | −0.3% | +3.2% |
| Net income | 5.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +110.9% | −40.8% | −10.7% | +132.4% | −52.1% | +4.2% | −15.0% | −8.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.26 | 2.07 | 1.98 | 5.36 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 2.81 | 2.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +120.3% | −36.5% | −4.3% | +170.7% | −44.4% | +9.4% | −13.8% | −5.7% |
| net % | 9.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| Free cash flow | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Oct 2025
- Cash
- 3.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 9.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 6.0 bn USD
- Equity
- -346.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 41.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.77x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 6.2%
- FCF margin
- 5.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56.6 bn | 63.5 bn | 62.9 bn | 53.7 bn | 53.6 bn | 55.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 46.2 bn | 50.1 bn | 50.6 bn | 42.2 bn | 41.7 bn | 43.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 10.4 bn ≈ | 13.4 bn ≈ | 12.3 bn | 11.5 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Research & development | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| SG&A | 4.9 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 3.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 789.0 m | 785.0 m | 780.0 m | 850.0 m | 830.0 m | 916.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 4.2 bn ≈ | 6.1 bn ≈ | 5.3 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 4.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 239.0 m | 254.0 m | 359.0 m | 548.0 m | 452.0 m | 430.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | 396.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | -326.0 m | 504.0 m | 139.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 2.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.98 | 5.36 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 2.81 | 2.65 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 989.0 m | 953.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.70 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 5.4 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Inventories | 6.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 20.6 bn | 22.2 bn | 19.7 bn | 18.0 bn | 20.8 bn | 22.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 6.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 540.0 m | 784.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 34.7 bn | 38.6 bn | 38.5 bn | 37.0 bn | 39.9 bn | 41.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 14.7 bn | 16.1 bn | 15.3 bn | 14.0 bn | 16.9 bn | 18.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 674.0 m | 1.1 bn | 218.0 m | 230.0 m | 1.4 bn | 845.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.5 bn | 6.4 bn | 10.8 bn | 9.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 26.2 bn | 29.1 bn | 26.2 bn | 24.5 bn | 28.7 bn | 29.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | -2.2 bn | -1.7 bn | -3.0 bn † | -1.1 bn † | -1.3 bn † | -346.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 580.0 m | 582.0 m | 765.0 m | 593.0 m | 592.0 m | 897.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.7 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 3.7 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.0 bn | -1.0 bn | -3.5 bn | -590.0 m | -646.0 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.0 bn | -6.0 bn | -2.1 bn | -2.9 bn | -3.1 bn | -2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 997.0 m | 938.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 100.0 m | 2.1 bn | 850.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 38 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 27.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet10
- Growth0
- Quality11
- Returns100
- Valuation100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 51.84 – 591.04 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)51.84 – 88.43 (Mid 65.41)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 4.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -29.9%
- Peers: EV/Sales297.54 – 591.04 (Mid 458.57)6 companies used · median multiple 7.1x · quartiles 4.6x – 9.1xFTNT, HPE, IBM, NTAP, STX, WDC
- Peers: EV/EBITDA83.30 – 91.72 (Mid 85.59)3 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 19.3x – 21.1xNTAP, STX, WDC
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 38/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 19.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 5.4% | 9 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 6.6% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 3.2% | 0 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 20 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 0.5x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet10/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
HP INC. (HPQ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 55.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.2%; net margin 4.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.
The estimated value range is 83.30–91.72 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 85.59 USD, the price of 29.93 USD leaves a potential of 186.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 65.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 38/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EV/Sales: 0.5x
- FCF yield: 14.4%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 19.9%
- EBIT margin: 5.4%
- FCF margin: 6.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.2%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 3.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.2x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Versus the vertical median
Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 357x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 3.8 bn and 243.6 bn (within 8× of the company's); 42 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | 240.4 bn | 21.7 | 35.2% | 16.0% | +7.6% | −18% / +60% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | 225.5 bn | 48.0 | 33.5% | 40.0% | +28.6% | +37% / +225% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | 147.6 bn | 8.3 | 141.2% | 67.0% | +175.3% | +365% / unavailable |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | 127.9 bn | 29.3 | 259.4% | 31.9% | +34.1% | +101% / +604% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | 121.2 bn | 12.6 | 131.5% | 69.2% | +35.7% | +98% / +787% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | 95.1 bn | 42.1 | 153.1% | 29.0% | +14.2% | +59% / +146% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | 66.5 bn | 25.8 | 11.0% | 6.7% | +13.8% | +129% / +196% |
| PEverpure, Inc. | 37.2 bn | 153.7 | 17.7% | 5.9% | +15.6% | +26% / +236% |
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | 36.9 bn | 26.4 | 114.8% | 21.8% | +5.6% | +68% / +105% |
| HPQHp Inc. | 27.0 bn | 11.4 | — | 4.1% | +3.2% | +15% / +9% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | 19.4 bn | 9.1 | 21.5% | 5.7% | +77.8% | −13% / +8% |
| FFIVF5, Inc. | 18.7 bn | 26.3 | 19.8% | 22.0% | +9.7% | +38% / +93% |
| LOGILogitech International S.A. | 14.2 bn | 18.1 | 38.2% | 16.4% | +6.3% | −11% / +14% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HPQ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.75 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 29.75 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 44.99 Total return 55% · Per year 55% |
| 3 years | 13.53 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 27.30 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 45.71 Total return 67% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 10.94 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 25.05 Total return 2% · Per year 0% | 46.43 Total return 79% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 6.82
- Net margin± 4.78
- Annual revenue growth± 4.28
- Annual dilution± 0.40
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
HP Inc. (HPQ) is a global technology company with activities in personal computers, printing and 3D printing. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 net revenue reached 15.7 billion USD, up 12.5% 3, and the company raised its full-year non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow outlook 3. The risk profile remains tied to component costs, tariffs and competition in printing 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- A broad product portfolio, an extensive distribution network and strong innovation capacity, including in security and AI.
- A large base of commercial customers and a strong position in the premium segment of PCs and workstations.
- Solid cash generation and an extensive patent portfolio that support the competitive advantage.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on third-party suppliers and on components that may become scarce or expensive affects margins.
- The printing segment suffers from falling unit sales and competition from non-original supplies.
- Currency exposure, because of the large share of sales outside the home market, makes results volatile.
Opportunities
- Growth in services and subscriptions could bring more stable recurring revenue.
- Demand for AI PCs and edge computing solutions could open new markets.
- Industrial printing and 3D printing offer growth directions in specialized applications.
Threats
- Aggressive competition from manufacturers with low-priced products, including in Asia.
- New tariffs and an unstable global trade environment can raise costs and complicate the supply chain.
- Continued digitization could reduce demand for printing over the long term.
Risks
- Strategy executionhigh
If new products and subscription models do not gain the expected traction, revenue could fall short of estimates.
- Supplier dependencehigh
Supply disruptions could limit the ability to deliver products on time and affect sales.
- Cost pressuremedium
Rising memory and storage costs could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers.
- Trade tariffsmedium
Changes in tariff policy could alter import costs and affect financial results.
- Currency risklow
Exchange rate fluctuations could influence revenue and profitability, given the large share of sales outside the home market.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in PCs and premium products continues and the tariff refunds are confirmed, results could support the raised EPS outlook.
- If services and subscriptions grow as a share of the business, recurring revenue could make the company less sensitive to demand cycles.
- If investments in AI and security bring differentiation, HP could gain share in the commercial segment.
What would break the thesis
- If the decline in printing units and competition from non-original supplies continue, the Printing segment could stay under pressure.
- If component costs rise faster than prices, margins in Personal Systems could decline.
- If tariff refunds prove temporary, future results could be weaker than the recent quarter.
What to watch
- Fourth quarter results and delivery against the EPS guidanceQ4 2026
- Development of memory and storage costs in Personal Systems2027
- Printing unit sales and the trend in suppliesQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Most revenue flows through channel resellers, and products are manufactured by outsourced partners around the world, giving the company flexibility in its supply chain 1. More than 65% of net revenue comes from outside the United States 2, so results are sensitive to exchange rates 2.
The long-term strategy focuses on recurring revenue through subscriptions, Device-as-a-Service and Instant Ink, along with AI integration in products and internal operations 2. The Fiscal 2026 Plan, announced in November 2025, is expected to run through fiscal 2028 2.
Segments
Personal Systems
Personal Systems covers desktops, notebooks, workstations, AI PCs and security solutions, and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 it generated 11.8 billion USD in revenue, up 18% 3. Growth was driven by commercial sales, while total units fell 16% 3.
Market context
The markets HP serves are highly competitive, with price competition and frequent product launches 1. The company notes that demand for printing is affected by digitization and hybrid work, while PC demand held up in the third quarter 13.
The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with geopolitical conflicts, exchange rate volatility and new tariffs on imports into the United States 2. Memory and storage costs have risen, and the company expects that pressure to continue 2.
Trends
- AI in devicesmixed
The spread of AI is shaping customer preferences and market dynamics, and the company is investing in AI PCs and workstations. If its AI products meet customer needs, they could support sales in the premium segment 13.
- Shift to subscription modelsmixed
The market is moving toward services and subscriptions, which could increase recurring revenue but requires giving up some upfront revenue and investing in new platforms 1.
- Digitization and hybrid workheadwind
Digitization and hybrid work reduce demand for traditional printing products, while big tank printers are gaining share against cartridge models 1.
- Tariffs and component costsheadwind
Import tariffs and rising memory and storage costs could compress margins, although recent tariff refunds provide temporary support 23.
Competitive position
In personal computers the main competitors include Acer, Apple, ASUSTeK, Dell, Huawei, Lenovo, Microsoft, Samsung and Toshiba, alongside local companies and white box makers 1. HP's advantages lie in its broad portfolio, innovation, security features and distribution network 1.
In printing the competitors include Brother, Canon, Pantum, Seiko Epson, Ricoh and Xerox, and lower-priced non-original supplies create constant pressure on supplies revenue 1.
- Lenovo
Competitor in personal computers, named as a primary competitor in the company's SEC filings.
- DellDELL
Direct competitor in computers and workstations for commercial customers.
- Canon
Main competitor in printing and supplies for both office and home use.
- Xerox
Competitor in printing for corporate customers, with pressure on pricing.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- HP Inc hires former GSK boss as CEOThe Register · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Mugur Pantaia, managing director, HP Inc. România, centrul de operaţiuni globale din Bucureşti al producătorului american de calculatoare şi imprimante: Ambiţia noastră este să devenim practic acel centru de competenţă AI pentru HP Inc., fără de care nu se va putea dezvolta businessul mai departeZiarul Financiar · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Is HP Inc. Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- HP Inc. launches Frontier strategic partnership with OpenAIOpenAI Blog · 28 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report27 Aug 2026
- Current report26 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Jun 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 May 2026
- Current report27 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement25 Feb 2026
- Quarterly report25 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-10-31 · SEC / HPQ · 10 Dec 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / HPQ · 27 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / HPQ · 26 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.