olivLaw · US equity research
ICF International, Inc. ICFI
Services-Management Consulting Services · SIC 8742 · Vertical: Services-Management Consulting Services (SIC 8742)
ICF International provides consulting, technology and policy implementation services to governments and commercial clients, with federal US clients a large share of revenue. The company reported revenue of 1872.9 million USD in 2025, a year affected by shifting government priorities, while energy and disaster recovery remain growth areas.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) stock was 96.91 USD (−0.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.7 bn USD, P/E 20.1 on diluted EPS of 4.83 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.58%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 59.90–98.52 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 474.5 m USD (−0.3% YoY), net income of 26.9 m USD (+13.9% YoY), diluted EPS 1.49 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 84.06 – 99.98
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 17.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 88.37 / 78.86
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.01 / 2.47
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.0% | −1.1% | +18.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.3% | −0.5% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +31.7% | +4.4% | +27.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.6% | +12.3% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.1% | +13.5% | +6.6 pp | −28.1% |
| 3 years | −22.8% | +76.4% | −99.2 pp | −26.6% |
| 5 years | −8.1% | +63.7% | −71.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 517.0 m | 496.3 m | 487.6 m | 476.2 m | 465.4 m | 443.7 m | 437.5 m | 474.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 325.0 m | 317.1 m | 302.5 m | 298.4 m | 290.5 m | 285.3 m | 270.6 m | 297.9 m |
| SG&A | 132.8 m | 129.5 m | 131.9 m | 123.0 m | 122.3 m | 115.2 m | 118.8 m | 123.3 m |
| Operating income | 46.0 m | 36.5 m | 38.4 m | 40.0 m | 38.4 m | 28.6 m | 34.9 m | 39.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.1 m | 13.3 m | 14.8 m | 14.7 m | 14.2 m | 14.5 m | 13.2 m | 13.4 m |
| Interest expense | 7.2 m | 6.6 m | 7.4 m | 8.5 m | 7.9 m | 7.4 m | 6.8 m | 6.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 37.9 m | 31.1 m | 30.0 m | 30.0 m | 30.7 m | 21.3 m | 27.4 m | 32.8 m |
| Income tax | 5.3 m | 6.5 m | 3.2 m | 6.3 m | 7.0 m | 4.0 m | 6.9 m | 5.8 m |
| Net income | 32.7 m | 24.6 m | 26.9 m | 23.7 m | 23.8 m | 17.3 m | 20.5 m | 26.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.73 | 1.30 ≈ | 1.44 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 0.94 ≈ | 1.12 | 1.49 |
| Operating cash flow | 25.5 m ≈ | 95.4 m | -33.0 m | 52.0 m ≈ | 47.3 m ≈ | 75.6 m | -3.1 m | 99.7 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.2 m ≈ | 5.9 m | 3.5 m | 5.8 m ≈ | 5.5 m ≈ | 6.9 m | 2.8 m | 5.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 2.6 m ≈ | 2.6 m | 2.6 m | 2.6 m ≈ | 2.6 m ≈ | 2.6 m | 2.6 m | 2.5 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 31 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 14.1, median 22.8, max 36.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +8.9% | +10.5% | +1.9% | +3.1% | +14.6% | +10.3% | +2.9% | −7.3% |
| Net income | 61.4 m | 68.9 m | 55.0 m | 71.1 m | 64.2 m | 82.6 m | 110.2 m | 91.6 m |
| Net income YoY | −2.3% | +12.3% | −20.3% | +29.4% | −9.7% | +28.6% | +33.4% | −16.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.18 | 3.59 | 2.87 | 3.72 | 3.38 | 4.35 | 5.82 | 4.95 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −2.8% | +12.9% | −20.1% | +29.6% | −9.1% | +28.7% | +33.8% | −14.9% |
| net % | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Free cash flow | 52.9 m | 64.5 m | 155.5 m | 90.3 m | 137.7 m | 130.0 m | 150.1 m | 120.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 402.7 m USD
- Net debt
- 397.4 m USD
- Equity
- 1.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.39x
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- 9.1%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 972.4 m | 979.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 534.5 m ≈ | 573.5 m ≈ | 645.5 m ≈ | 698.2 m ≈ | 737.8 m ≈ | 696.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 411.6 m | 430.6 m | 486.9 m | 505.2 m | 518.5 m | 492.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 89.1 m | 110.9 m | 108.8 m | 132.3 m | 165.8 m | 145.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 33.7 m | 32.0 m | 49.9 m | 60.7 m | 53.5 m | 58.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 122.9 m ≈ | 142.9 m ≈ | 158.7 m ≈ | 193.1 m ≈ | 219.3 m ≈ | 203.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 13.9 m | 10.3 m | 23.5 m | 40.0 m | 29.9 m | 31.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 74.7 m | 100.1 m | 84.0 m | 96.5 m | 138.1 m | 112.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 19.7 m | 29.0 m | 19.7 m | 13.9 m | 27.9 m | 20.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 55.0 m | 71.1 m | 64.2 m | 82.6 m | 110.2 m | 91.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.87 | 3.72 | 3.38 | 4.35 | 5.82 | 4.95 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 19.1 m | 19.1 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | 18.9 m | 18.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 13.8 m | 8.3 m | 11.3 m | 6.4 m | 5.0 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 222.9 m | 237.7 m | 232.3 m | 205.5 m | 256.9 m | 238.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 475.7 m | 449.2 m | 466.7 m | 447.2 m | 492.1 m | 514.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 62.4 m | 52.1 m | 85.4 m | 75.9 m | 66.5 m | 58.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 909.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 59.9 m | 79.6 m | 126.5 m | 94.9 m | 111.7 m | 81.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 91.4 m | 105.7 m | 135.8 m | 134.5 m | 159.5 m | 123.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | 23.3 m | 26.0 m | 0 | 1.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 303.2 m | 411.6 m | 533.1 m | 404.4 m | 411.7 m | 401.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 427.0 m | 376.6 m | 416.0 m | 418.2 m | 449.2 m | 404.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 920.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 747.0 m † | 803.5 m † | 853.2 m † | 917.6 m † | 982.5 m † | 1.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 173.1 m | 110.2 m | 162.2 m | 152.4 m | 171.5 m | 141.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 17.7 m | 19.9 m | 24.5 m | 22.3 m | 21.4 m | 21.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 155.5 m ≈ | 90.3 m ≈ | 137.7 m ≈ | 130.0 m ≈ | 150.1 m ≈ | 120.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -270.9 m | -194.5 m | -258.8 m | -3.7 m | -74.8 m | -21.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 170.0 m | 23.2 m | 90.4 m | -152.6 m | -86.9 m | -84.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 10.6 m | 10.6 m | 10.5 m | 10.5 m | 10.5 m | 10.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 64 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation84
- Returns45
- Quality73
- Balance sheet44
- Growth52
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 63.55 – 253.01 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)147.58 – 253.01 (Mid 187.04)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 221.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -20.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA111.30 – 151.47 (Mid 146.24)9 companies used · median multiple 15.4x · quartiles 12.2x – 15.8xACCS, ASTH, BAH, BWMN, FCN, HCKT, HURN, III, ONT
- Peers: P/E63.55 – 120.44 (Mid 91.61)11 companies used · median multiple 19.0x · quartiles 13.2x – 24.9xAERT, BAH, EXPO, FCN, G, HCKT, HURN, III, RMR, TSSI, ZTG
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate7.36 – 9.90 (Mid 8.44)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 64/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.7% | 61 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.9% | 67 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 224.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.7% | 14 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.6% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 36 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.1x | 65 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.9x | 91 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.6% | 8 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 5.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns45/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
ICF International, Inc. (ICFI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.3%; net margin 4.9%; ROE 8.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.0x.
The estimated value range is 111.30–151.47 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 146.24 USD, the price of 96.91 USD leaves a potential of 50.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 33.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 64/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 224.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 13.6%
- EV/EBITDA: 10.9x
- FCF yield: 11.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 5.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.6%
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Services-Management Consulting Services (SIC 8742) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 33 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 10.5 bn | 13.7 | 70.0% | 7.1% | −6.4% | +6% / −29% |
| GGenpact Limited | 6.9 bn | 12.1 | 22.4% | 11.1% | +6.6% | −7% / +20% |
| FCNFti Consulting, Inc | 5.4 bn | 24.7 | 15.2% | 5.9% | +2.4% | +22% / −10% |
| EXPOExponent, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 39.2 | 31.2% | 17.7% | +4.2% | +21% / +14% |
| HURNHuron Consulting Group Inc. | 2.7 bn | 25.8 | 25.5% | 6.1% | +11.7% | +5% / +66% |
| ASTHAstrana Health, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 48.3 | 5.1% | 1.1% | +56.4% | +72% / +19% |
| ICFIICF International, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 20.1 | 8.6% | 4.9% | −7.3% | +20% / −23% |
| BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd. | 744.2 m | 105.3 | 2.9% | 1.4% | +14.9% | +19% / +39% |
| ONTOnterris, Inc. | 566.4 m | — | -2.5% | -1.4% | +19.3% | −37% / −48% |
| PPHCPublic Policy Holding Company, Inc. | 381.3 m | — | -39.5% | -18.9% | +24.7% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HCKTHackett Group, Inc. | 329.4 m | 19.0 | 20.7% | 6.3% | −2.6% | −28% / −40% |
| IIIInformation Services Group Inc. | 289.5 m | 25.2 | 12.7% | 4.7% | −1.2% | +13% / +46% |
| AERTAeries Technology, Inc. | 282.0 m | 20.9 | — | 3.6% | −0.3% | +35% / −68% |
| RMRRmr Group Inc. | 250.5 m | 12.6 | 8.7% | 3.1% | −22.0% | +10% / −30% |
| SUPXSuperx Ai Technology Limited | 209.8 m | — | -101.8% | -527.7% | +1,878.6% | −84% / unavailable |
| TSSITss, Inc. | 193.3 m | 14.1 | 32.0% | 7.4% | +65.9% | −29% / +1,976% |
| GRNQGreenpro Capital Corp. | 122.4 m | — | -26.8% | -169.6% | −40.7% | −57% / −19% |
| AUCAtif Holdings Limited | 109.4 m | — | -90.5% | -723.7% | −74.7% | −12% / −70% |
| ROMARoma Green Finance Limited | 101.0 m | — | -44.2% | -287.8% | −22.2% | +138% / unavailable |
| RTBRTB Digital, INC. | 92.6 m | — | -141.9% | -198.5% | −38.7% | −49% / −94% |
| MHHMastech Digital, Inc. | 74.9 m | 71.0 | 1.3% | 0.7% | −3.8% | −21% / −27% |
| EGGEnigmatig Ltd | 64.8 m | 268.0 | 6.3% | 12.6% | +12.2% | +40% / unavailable |
| CTMCastellum, Inc. | 46.4 m | — | -6.8% | -4.1% | +18.1% | −53% / +123% |
| ACCLAcco Group Holdings Limited | 34.9 m | 119.0 | 7.0% | 5.6% | +5.8% | −38% / unavailable |
| INTJIntelligent Group Limited | 33.5 m | — | -23.5% | -98.3% | −9.0% | −72% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ICFI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 56.93 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 100.78 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 152.00 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 52.19 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 104.26 Total return 9% · Per year 3% | 173.08 Total return 81% · Per year 22% |
| 5 years | 47.86 Total return -49% · Per year -12% | 107.86 Total return 14% · Per year 3% | 197.09 Total return 108% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 26.07
- Net margin± 18.25
- Annual revenue growth± 15.39
- Annual dilution± 1.53
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ICF International provides consulting, technology and policy implementation services to governments and commercial clients, with federal US clients a large share of revenue. The company reported revenue of 1872.9 million USD in 2025, a year affected by shifting government priorities, while energy and disaster recovery remain growth areas.1
SWOT
Strengths
- Highly qualified staff with long experience in consulting and public policy.
- Long-standing relationships with federal, state, local and commercial clients.
- Proprietary analytics tools and energy models used by governments and companies.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on government contracts makes revenue sensitive to budget changes.
- Quarterly revenue can vary widely because of contract timing and payments.
- Growth through acquisitions carries integration and capacity management risks.
Opportunities
- Energy demand and electrification could increase the volume of energy consulting work.
- Government technology modernization may open opportunities for AI-enabled solutions.
- Frequent climate disasters could generate long-term recovery programs.
Threats
- Budget delays and continuing resolutions can postpone or cancel contract funding.
- Federal spending cuts or contract terminations can strongly affect revenue.
- Audit and investigation risks, especially in disaster recovery, could reduce profit.
Risks
- Dependence on the federal budgethigh
A large part of revenue comes from federal agencies, and budget delays can postpone payments or halt work.
- Contract terminations and stop-work ordershigh
Executive actions and government reorganizations have led to contract terminations, and such decisions could repeat.
- Fixed-price contractsmedium
Cost estimation errors can reduce margins on fixed-price contracts or cause losses.
- Integration of acquisitionsmedium
Strategic acquisitions may be harder to integrate than expected, affecting costs and results.
- Artificial intelligence risksmedium
Performance errors or data issues in AI solutions could lead to disputes and reputational damage.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for energy, climate resilience and digital modernization holds, the company could benefit from higher project volumes.
- Long relationships, prime contractor positions and disaster experience could help win new contracts.
- A growing commercial share could reduce dependence on federal budgets over time.
What would break the thesis
- If federal budgets stay blocked, revenue and cash flow could decline.
- Lower backlog at the end of 2025 could mean weaker revenue in the following periods.
- Audit and investigation risks in disaster recovery could affect profit and reputation.
What to watch
- Third quarter results and guidance for the rest of the yearQ3 2026
- Development of backlog and new federal contract awardsnext 10-K
- Effect of federal budgets and any continuing resolutions2027
- Pace of strategic acquisitions and their integration2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
ICF International, Inc. provides professional services and technology-based solutions, including management, technology and policy consulting and implementation services, to government and commercial clients.1 The company reports one operating segment and describes its work across three markets: energy, environment, infrastructure and disaster recovery; health and social programs; and security and other civilian and commercial.1 It had about 8400 employees, headquarters in the Washington D.C. area and 49 regional offices in the US.1
Segments
Energy, environment, infrastructure and disaster recovery
This market covers energy advisory for utilities and developers, energy efficiency programs, resilience planning and environmental services for transport and infrastructure projects. The company views energy as an attractive growth sector over the next decade, driven by data center demand and electrification.1 In the second quarter of 2026, revenue in this market rose slightly, by 1.0%.2
Health and social programs
ICF offers program evaluation, biomedical research, health communications and social support program services, including for US federal agencies and the European Commission.1 The filing cites rising healthcare costs, the opioid crisis and the need for transparency in public programs as demand drivers.1
Security and other civilian and commercial
The work covers cybersecurity, resilience planning and technology modernization for governments and companies in critical sectors. The company considers rising cyber and terrorist threats to support demand for these services.1
Market context
Government consulting depends heavily on public budgets; at year-end 2025 US federal clients made up about 43% of revenue and commercial clients about 33%.1 The company says long-term demand could grow in energy, health, disaster management and security.1 Backlog stood at 3405.0 million USD at the end of 2025, down from 3786.3 million USD a year earlier.1
Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was almost unchanged from a year earlier, at 474.5 million USD.2 The company pursues growth through larger commercial projects and strategic acquisitions, but public budget factors could change results.2
Trends
- Rising energy demandtailwind
Growth in energy use from data centers, electrification and investment in cleaner sources could support demand for energy consulting.1
- Extreme weather eventstailwind
More frequent natural disasters could generate multi-year recovery and mitigation programs.1
- Uncertain federal budgetsheadwind
Delays in budget approval and continuing resolutions can postpone or reduce funding for government contracts.1
- Reshaped government spendingmixed
Changes in priorities and actions linked to DOGE led to contract terminations and stop-work orders, and similar effects could recur if priorities shift again.1
Competitive position
The company competes for contracts through competitive bidding and as prime contractor on GSA Schedule and IDIQ vehicles, where each order must be won separately.1 The filings do not name specific competitors, and long client relationships and expertise are presented as advantages.1
Conflict-of-interest rules can limit the work the company may accept, especially as the commercial share grows.1 Reputation and client relationships are also essential for winning new contracts.1
- Competitors not named in the source
The reviewed documents do not identify competitors by name, only describing established participants in the relevant fields in general terms.
- Government services providers
The company competes with other providers bidding for the same federal, state and local awards, without the sources naming them.
- Energy and engineering consultancies
In energy and environmental markets there are specialized rivals, which the sources mention only generically.
- IT solutions providers for governments
In technology and artificial intelligence work the company competes with cloud and digital service providers, unnamed in the document.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report24 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Apr 2026
- Current report16 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ICF International, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ICF International, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ICF International, Inc. · 24 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.