olivLaw · US equity research
iQIYI, Inc. IQ
Services-Video Tape Rental · SIC 7841 · Vertical: Motion pictures (SIC 78xx)
iQIYI is an online entertainment video platform in China that earns most of its revenue from memberships, advertising and content distribution. In the latest reported fiscal year, total revenues fell 6.6%, and the company moved from profit to a net loss, so how it can recover is the key question.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) stock was 0.92 USD (+4.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 314.6 m USD, beta 1.28, 52-week range 0.83–2.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.79 – 1.04
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 27.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.96 / 1.28
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.8% | −1.1% | −9.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −28.8% | −0.5% | −28.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −25.3% | +4.4% | −29.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −52.2% | +12.3% | −64.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −58.3% | +13.5% | −71.8 pp | −27.3% |
| 3 years | −81.6% | +76.4% | −158.0 pp | +6.0% |
| 5 years | −88.7% | +63.7% | −152.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +14.6% | +9.3% | +5.3% | −12.3% | +6.8% | −10.8% | −2.5% |
| Net income | -1.3 bn | -1.5 bn | -1.1 bn | -968.1 m | -19.7 m | 271.2 m | 104.7 m | -29.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −61.4% | −128.2% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -36.5% | -35.6% | -23.7% | -20.2% | -0.5% | 6.0% | 2.6% | -0.8% |
| Free cash flow | 330.5 m | 454.8 m | -866.2 m | -975.0 m | -35.5 m | 466.9 m | 278.2 m | 1.4 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 622.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 356.5 m USD
- Net debt
- -266.1 m USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.19x
- Current ratio
- 0.47x
- ROE
- -1.6%
- ROA
- -0.5%
- FCF margin
- 0.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 279.4 m ≈ | 477.2 m ≈ | 968.3 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 996.2 m ≈ | 822.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 410.0 m | 438.6 m | 275.4 m | 248.8 m | 243.6 m | 237.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 795.1 m | 741.5 m | 502.6 m | 565.4 m | 504.4 m | 551.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -925.7 m | -702.9 m | 190.3 m | 421.1 m | 248.1 m | 32.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 163.4 m | 211.8 m | 103.7 m | 159.2 m | 145.5 m | 130.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.1 bn | -943.4 m | -4.9 m | 286.3 m | 116.7 m | -8.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.6 m | 15.2 m | 12.2 m | 11.3 m | 8.4 m | 20.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.1 bn | -968.1 m | -19.7 m | 271.2 m | 104.7 m | -29.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 470.3 m | 1.0 bn | 624.6 m | 483.6 m | 622.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 512.6 m | 431.2 m | 348.4 m | 305.5 m | 300.2 m | 360.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 213.6 m | 211.0 m | 160.2 m | 121.7 m | 120.3 m | 129.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 595.9 m | 610.2 m | 538.9 m | 523.5 m | 523.5 m | 546.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 96.1 m | 85.6 m | 63.3 m | 43.6 m | 39.7 m | 31.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.4 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 454.6 m | 646.2 m | 485.4 m | 503.1 m | 518.8 m | 356.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.9 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.4 bn | 827.9 m | 919.7 m | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -829.3 m | -934.0 m | -10.2 m | 472.1 m | 289.1 m | 15.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 36.9 m | 41.0 m | 25.3 m | 5.2 m | 10.9 m | 13.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -866.2 m ≈ | -975.0 m ≈ | -35.5 m ≈ | 466.9 m ≈ | 278.2 m ≈ | 1.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 24.4 m | 198.1 m | 38.6 m | -245.0 m | -334.9 m | -46.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.4 bn | -464.4 m | 647.9 m | -603.5 m | -187.7 m | 152.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 314.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.74 – 10.28 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)5.74 – 10.28 (Mid 7.27)WACC 7.0% · starting FCFF 110.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 80%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.8% | 57 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.5% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial6/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
iQIYI, Inc. (IQ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.5%; net margin -0.8%; ROE -1.6%.
The estimated value range is 5.74–10.28 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.27 USD, the price of 0.92 USD leaves a potential of 691.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 87.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.5%
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- FCF yield: 0.5%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Motion pictures (SIC 78xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | 272.6 bn | 19.2 | 53.5% | 29.7% | +15.9% | −38% / +40% |
| CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc. | 4.9 bn | 32.1 | — | 5.3% | +2.1% | +47% / +183% |
| LIONLionsgate Studios Corp. | 3.8 bn | — | — | -4.1% | +1.8% | +71% / +20% |
| AMCAmc Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | 3.1 bn | — | — | -2.6% | +4.6% | +44% / −47% |
| FUBOFuboTV Inc. | 2.8 bn | — | -5.8% | -0.7% | +18.6% | −77% / −79% |
| ANGXAngel Studios, Inc. | 684.5 m | — | — | -37.5% | +233.2% | −25% / unavailable |
| MCSMarcus Corp | 533.6 m | 21.2 | 5.4% | 3.1% | +3.1% | +79% / +102% |
| STRZStarz Entertainment Corp. | 438.0 m | — | -87.9% | -32.5% | −1.6% | +131% / unavailable |
| IQiQIYI, Inc. | 314.6 m | — | -1.6% | -0.8% | −2.5% | −58% / −82% |
| CURICuriositystream Inc. | 157.8 m | 511.1 | 0.1% | 0.0% | +40.1% | −45% / +286% |
| MPUMega Matrix Inc | 50.4 m | — | -213.2% | -131.4% | −27.9% | −95% / −94% |
| CNVSCineverse Corp. | 37.8 m | — | -28.1% | -12.7% | −15.9% | −37% / +34% |
| TOONKartoon Studios, Inc. | 32.3 m | 10.5 | 21.7% | 26.9% | +20.7% | −30% / −68% |
| RDIReading International, Inc | — | — | — | -5.9% | −3.6% | +30% / −8% |
| GAIAGaia, Inc | — | — | -9.3% | -1,090.3% | +55.2% | −67% / −52% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IQ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (19 Aug 2026), 6-K (02 Jul 2026), 6-K (18 May 2026), 6-K (30 Mar 2026).
In brief
iQIYI is an online entertainment video platform in China that earns most of its revenue from memberships, advertising and content distribution. In the latest reported fiscal year, total revenues fell 6.6% 1, and the company moved from profit to a net loss, so how it can recover is the key question 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large content library and a high share of original productions that reach strong popularity scores, supported by an in-house production team 1.
- A diversified monetization model across memberships, advertising, distribution and other sources, which could reduce reliance on a single revenue stream 1.
- Positive operating cash flow each year since 2023, which provides a financial base for content investment 1.
Weaknesses
- A net loss in fiscal 2025 after earlier profits, which shows how sensitive results are to content costs 1.
- Content costs make up most of cost of revenues, and costly productions may not recover their investment 1.
- Reliance on memberships, which declined in 2025 due to a lighter slate and competition 1.
Opportunities
- International expansion through the multilingual app and popular Asian content could open new audiences 1.
- Micro dramas and short formats could attract users looking for quick entertainment 1.
- IP-based businesses, such as consumer products and the iQIYI LAND offline experiences, could add new revenue 1.
Risks
- Net losseshigh
The company recorded losses before 2023 and again in 2025, and continued investment in content and technology could lead to further losses 1.
- Variable interest entity structurehigh
Operations in mainland China are conducted through contractual arrangements with variable interest entities rather than direct ownership, and Chinese authorities could challenge these arrangements 1.
- Indebtedness and working capitalmedium
The company carries substantial indebtedness and has experienced working capital deficits in the past, which could limit its ability to meet debt obligations 1.
- Regulation and cash transfersmedium
Transfers of funds and dividends from mainland China require government approvals or filings, which can delay financing of operations 1.
- HFCAA exposuremedium
ADS trading could be prohibited in the United States if the company's auditor is not inspected by the PCAOB, a risk that could affect the value of an investment 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If a more selective content approach wins back subscribers and original productions keep reaching strong popularity, membership revenue could recover 1.
- The company has generated positive operating cash flow each year since 2023, which could support investment in content and new formats 1.
- If IP-based businesses and short formats grow, they could diversify revenue beyond memberships and advertising 1.
What would break the thesis
- Total revenues fell in 2025 and the decline hit every main segment, which could signal broader pressure than expected 1.
- Gross margin declined in 2025 and content costs remain the majority of costs, which could keep profitability under pressure 1.
- The variable interest entity structure and Chinese regulation could continue to limit investors' access to operating results 1.
What to watch
- Trend in membership revenue after the more selective content strategyQ1 2027
- Recovery of online advertising revenue2027
- Operating income and gross margin in the next annual reportnext 10-K
- Contribution of micro dramas and IP-based businesses to total revenues2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (19 Aug 2026), 6-K (02 Jul 2026), 6-K (18 May 2026), 6-K (30 Mar 2026).
The business
iQIYI is a leading provider of online entertainment video services in China, focused on quality content and user experience. As of December 31, 2025, its library held over 40,000 long-form titles and approximately 20,000 micro dramas 1. The company says its original drama series are the main source of premium content, which makes it dependent on the success of its own productions 1.
Segments
Market context
The company operates in China's online entertainment video market, where competition among providers directly affects its ability to attract and retain paying subscribers. The source indicates that if the content slate does not draw enough viewers, pressure on membership and advertising revenue could persist 1. The drop in total revenues in the latest year shows the market has been difficult for the company 1.
Trends
- More selective content acquisitionmixed
The company says it adopted a more curated acquisition strategy centered on quality, which reduced content costs by 1.7% in 2025 1. If this selection continues to attract viewers, it could support margins over the medium term, though a smaller slate risks weighing on memberships 1.
- Pressure on advertisingheadwind
Some advertisers adjusted their budgets in response to macro pressure, which led to lower advertising revenue in 2025 1. If this trend persists, the segment could remain under pressure 1.
- Micro dramas and new formatstailwind
Since 2024 the company has added micro dramas of one to five minutes, optimized for vertical viewing, to serve varied user preferences 1. If these formats attract new audiences, they could support user growth, though the source does not quantify their monetization 1.
- Artificial intelligence in the producttailwind
The company uses AI tools for script selection, micro animations and experience features such as the Taodou assistant 1. If these features raise engagement, they could support operating efficiency and retention 1.
Competitive position
The source cites competition among online entertainment video providers as a factor behind the 2025 decline in memberships 1. No specific competitors are named in the official text reviewed, so the analysis is limited to the competitive environment the company describes 1.
- Other online entertainment video providers in China
The source refers to competition among online entertainment video providers without naming them, and they are not identified as US-listed in the text reviewed 1.
- Content distribution partners and TV stations
The company sub-licenses content to TV stations and other streaming platforms, which can be both partners and competitors 1.
- Content producers and studios
Content costs depend on the market for professional productions, where prices have risen significantly in the past, which implies competition for talent and licenses 1.
- Online game and other entertainment companies
The company also competes through online games and IP-based experiences, where other entertainment companies are active 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- iQIYI Starship – Distribuția serialului „Prima primăvară europeană” se reunește cu publicul vietnamez. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Mar 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)16 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Nov 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Aug 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / iQIYI, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.