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olivLaw · US equity research

Itron, Inc. ITRI

Instruments For Meas & Testing of Electricity & Elec Signals · SIC 3825 · Vertical: Instruments For Meas & Testing of Electricity & Elec Signals (SIC 3825)

101.60USD+3.44% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Itron is a global leader in grid edge intelligence, energy and water management and critical infrastructure services for utilities and cities. It expanded its resiliency portfolio with the Urbint acquisition in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported record gross margin while quarterly revenue declined, which makes the balance between growth and profitability relevant now. Annual revenue is about 2.4 billion USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Itron, Inc. (ITRI) stock was 101.60 USD (+3.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.5 bn USD, P/E 16.4 on diluted EPS of 6.19 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.09, 52-week range 78.02–107.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 599.3 m USD (+3.0% YoY), net income of 71.4 m USD (+8.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.61 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.5 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.4
Diluted EPS TTM 6.19 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.09%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.09
Volatility (1y) 41%
52-week range
78.02107.15

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
70.8
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
77.57 – 101.11
above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 26.3%
SMA 50 / 200
91.10 / 90.91
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.59 / 0.75
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+15.7%−1.1%+16.8 pp—
3 months−3.8%−0.5%−3.3 pp—
6 months+22.5%+4.4%+18.1 pp—
Year to date+9.4%+12.3%−2.9 pp—
1 year−4.7%+13.5%−18.2 pp+73.7%
3 years+58.1%+76.4%−18.4 pp+51.5%
5 years+28.4%+63.7%−35.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.2%
05 Nov 2025 → 19 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−44.6%
08 Nov 2021 → 12 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
599.3 m USD
+3.0% YoY
Net income
71.4 m USD
+8.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.61
+14.2% YoY
net / operating
11.9% / 15.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue612.9 m607.2 m606.8 m581.6 m571.7 m587.0 m562.9 m599.3 m
Cost of revenue399.0 m389.9 m383.1 m362.1 m339.9 m350.7 m332.3 m354.5 m
Gross profit213.9 m217.2 m223.6 m219.5 m231.7 m236.3 m230.6 m244.9 m
Research & development58.3 m50.1 m53.8 m50.0 m53.1 m55.0 m56.1 m57.0 m
SG&A85.0 m86.9 m87.6 m83.1 m95.3 m105.4 m89.7 m84.1 m
Operating income62.7 m76.2 m76.4 m81.8 m78.7 m67.6 m76.1 m95.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation15.3 m12.1 m12.1 m12.0 m13.3 m18.5 m18.6 m18.4 m
Interest expense5.6 m5.6 m5.6 m5.6 m5.6 m5.8 m5.8 m5.9 m
Pre-tax income69.9 m82.3 m83.5 m90.7 m85.8 m67.2 m80.2 m97.0 m
Income tax11.3 m16.9 m14.7 m24.5 m-17.2 m13.6 m26.7 m25.8 m
Net income58.1 m65.5 m68.3 m65.6 m101.6 m53.5 m53.3 m71.4 m
Diluted EPS1.26 ≈1.421.471.412.21 ≈1.181.191.61
Operating cash flow79.8 m72.1 m96.7 m ≈117.8 m ≈119.3 m85.5 m88.1 m ≈102.0 m ≈
Capex9.7 m4.6 m6.0 m ≈4.4 m ≈7.8 m6.5 m6.6 m ≈6.4 m ≈
Share repurchases000 ≈0 ≈100.0 m100.0 m52.2 m ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 16 percentile of its own 25-quarter history (min 14.0, median 37.1, max 1,210.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.4 bn2.5 bn2.2 bn2.0 bn1.8 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn
Revenue YoY+17.7%+5.3%−13.2%−8.8%−9.4%+21.1%+12.3%−3.0%
Net income-99.3 m49.0 m-58.0 m-81.3 m-9.7 m96.9 m239.1 m301.1 m
Net income YoY−273.2%unavailable−218.3%unavailableunavailableunavailable+146.7%+25.9%
Diluted EPS-2.531.23-1.44-1.83-0.222.115.186.50
Diluted EPS YoY−274.5%unavailable−217.1%unavailableunavailableunavailable+145.5%+25.5%
net %-4.2%2.0%-2.7%-4.1%-0.5%4.5%9.8%12.7%
Free cash flow49.8 m112.1 m63.3 m120.1 m4.8 m98.1 m207.6 m383.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.0 bn USD
Financial debt
1.2 bn USD
Net debt
227.9 m USD
Equity
1.7 bn USD
Total assets
3.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.72x
Current ratio
1.80x
ROE
19.1%
ROA
8.4%
FCF margin
16.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
713.9 m
2024
839.3 m
2025
892.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
208.7 m
2024
215.0 m
2025
207.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
312.8 m
2024
339.1 m
2025
353.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
128.9 m
2024
264.1 m
2025
313.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
55.8 m
2024
56.3 m
2025
49.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
184.6 m ≈
2024
320.4 m ≈
2025
362.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
8.3 m
2024
15.4 m
2025
22.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
127.4 m
2024
284.5 m
2025
342.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
29.1 m
2024
43.4 m
2025
38.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
96.9 m
2024
239.1 m
2025
301.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.11
2024
5.18
2025
6.50

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
45.8 m
2024
46.2 m
2025
46.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
302.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
272.9 m
2024
295.3 m
2025
342.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
283.7 m
2024
270.7 m
2025
242.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
128.8 m
2024
115.4 m
2025
112.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
46.3 m
2024
43.1 m
2025
83.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
199.5 m
2024
144.9 m
2025
156.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
0
2025
459.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
454.8 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
788.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
537.2 m
2024
528.3 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
125.0 m
2024
238.2 m
2025
406.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
26.9 m
2024
30.6 m
2025
22.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
98.1 m ≈
2024
207.6 m ≈
2025
383.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-23.3 m
2024
-63.4 m
2025
-349.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.5 m
2024
579.6 m
2025
-97.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
100.0 m
2025
100.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
25.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
25.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
84.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
40.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
16.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
15.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
16.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
13.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
736.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
394.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
27.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
367.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
131.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
102.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
53 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
45 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
79 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
5.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
15.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
16.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
12.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 81 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

101.60 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
16.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Oct 2026
verified 2954derived 222

Score by group

  • Valuation100
  • Returns81
  • Quality79
  • Balance sheet58
  • Growth80

Estimated value range

Low
173.89
USD per share
Mid
178.86
USD per share
High
205.46
USD per share
Price: 101.60 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 76.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 43.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 132.94 – 232.13 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)132.94 – 232.13 (Mid 169.56)
    WACC 8.2% · starting FCFF 387.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -9.6%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA173.89 – 205.46 (Mid 178.86)
    5 companies used · median multiple 22.2x · quartiles 21.6x – 25.2x
    ALNT, INTT, TER, TRNS, VLTO
  • Peers: P/E178.62 – 200.35 (Mid 179.01)
    3 companies used · median multiple 28.9x · quartiles 28.9x – 32.4x
    ALNT, TER, VLTO
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Instruments For Meas & Testing of Electricity & Elec Signals (SIC 3825)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 81/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.3%67 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality12.1%78 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality131.4%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.7%80 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.9x17 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet13.8x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.8x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.4x100 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.4x100 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation8.2%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.7%81 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet58/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial80/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial81/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Itron, Inc. (ITRI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.0%; net margin 12.1%; ROE 16.5%; net debt/EBITDA 1.9x.

The estimated value range is 173.89–205.46 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 178.86 USD, the price of 101.60 USD leaves a potential of 76.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 43.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 81/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 12.1%
  • FCF conversion: 131.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.7%
  • Interest coverage: 13.8x
  • Current ratio: 2.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 16.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 13.4x
  • FCF yield: 8.2%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.9x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Instruments For Meas & Testing of Electricity & Elec Signals (SIC 3825) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.4x
vertical median 131.3x
below median (−87.5%)
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
vertical median 23.7x
below median (−43.3%)
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 3.7x
below median (−47.5%)
P/B
2.6x
vertical median 4.1x
below median (−36.6%)
ROE
16.5%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+986.3%)
Net margin
12.1%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+853.8%)
EBIT margin
13.7%
vertical median 2.5%
above median (+444.0%)
Revenue YoY
-3.0%
vertical median 4.6%
below median (−165.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.9x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+101.8%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.2%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TERTeradyne, Inc.39.2 bn28.842.9%27.5%+13.1%+38% / +172%
VLTOVeralto Corporation28.5 bn28.933.0%17.3%+6.0%+16% / +51%
ITRIItron, Inc.4.5 bn16.416.5%12.1%−3.0%−5% / +58%
COHUCohu, Inc.2.1 bn—-2.8%-4.0%+12.7%+81% / +39%
AEHRAehr Test Systems2.0 bn—-4.2%-14.3%−15.2%+165% / +165%
ALNTAllient Inc1.4 bn35.812.1%6.2%+4.6%+48% / +205%
TRNSTranscat, Inc.1.0 bn226.71.5%1.3%+19.2%+91% / +10%
FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc.693.5 m243.83.0%3.7%−9.4%+115% / +523%
INTTinTest Corporation175.9 m335.20.6%0.5%−12.9%+74% / +7%
DAIOData I25.2 m—-61.2%-50.1%−1.2%−16% / −16%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ITRI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
65.13
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
114.87
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
172.65
Total return 70% · Per year 70%
3 years
69.92
Total return -31% · Per year -12%
138.11
Total return 36% · Per year 11%
226.94
Total return 123% · Per year 31%
5 years
75.06
Total return -26% · Per year -6%
166.05
Total return 63% · Per year 10%
298.31
Total return 194% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 34.53
  • Net margin± 24.17
  • Annual revenue growth± 18.91
  • Annual dilution± 2.03

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

In brief

Itron is a global leader in grid edge intelligence, energy and water management and critical infrastructure services for utilities and cities. It expanded its resiliency portfolio with the Urbint acquisition in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 reported record gross margin while quarterly revenue declined, which makes the balance between growth and profitability relevant now. Annual revenue is about 2.4 billion USD 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading IIoT position and an integrated platform able to run multiple applications on one network 1.
  • Rising gross margin and recurring software and services revenue that support profitability 13.
  • Broad base of utility customers with long-standing relationships and a large installed base 1.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on utility customers, with long sales cycles and irregular capital spending 1.
  • Quarterly revenue declined in the second quarter of 2026 due to network project timing 3.
  • Reliance on single or sole-source suppliers for certain components creates supply risk 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand linked to electrification, data centers and distributed energy resources could expand the market 1.
  • Recent acquisitions could broaden resiliency and software offerings if integration stays on plan 23.
  • Growth in recurring services could improve revenue predictability and margins 3.

Threats

  • Better-resourced competitors or low-cost providers could erode market share and pressure prices 1.
  • Regulatory changes or delays in smart grid policy could reduce utility investment 1.
  • Tariffs, sanctions and currency volatility could raise costs and weigh on margins 12.

Risks

  • Long sales cycleshigh

    Budget and regulatory approvals for smart meters can take years, making revenue uneven 1.

  • Component supplyhigh

    Semiconductor shortages and supplier disruptions can delay deliveries and strain customer relationships 1.

  • Competitive and pricing pressuremedium

    Low-cost suppliers could reduce device prices, and meters could become easier to substitute 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Integrating Urbint and Locusview could face difficulties and affect the Resiliency Solutions segment 23.

  • Customer concentrationlow

    A small group of customers generates a significant share of revenue, so losing one would have a visible effect 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the record second-quarter gross margin holds and recurring services keep growing, profitability could reach a higher level 3.
  • Demand tied to grid expansion, resiliency and affordability could support long-term projects reflected in backlog 13.
  • The integrated platform and partner ecosystem could strengthen Itron's position against smaller competitors 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If revenue from Networked Solutions keeps falling, growth in services might not fully offset it 3.
  • Regulatory delays or reduced subsidies could postpone utility investment 1.
  • Price pressure and supply costs could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter results and guidance for revenue and non-GAAP EPSQ3 2026
  • Trend in total backlog and twelve-month backlogQ3 2026
  • Integration of Urbint and Locusview within Resiliency Solutions2027
  • Regulatory and supply chain disclosures in the next annual reportnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

The business

Itron offers an integrated portfolio of endpoints (sensors, switches, meters), multi-purpose communication networks, and software and services that turn field data into decisions for utilities and municipalities 1. The company has nearly 50 years of experience in managing data and critical infrastructure, built through acquisitions of Schlumberger Electricity Metering, Actaris, Comverge, Silver Spring Networks and, in 2025, Urbint 1. Its model combines a direct sales force for large utilities with indirect channels for smaller utilities and municipalities 1.

Segments

Device Solutions

Covers measurement, control and sensing hardware, mainly standard electricity, gas and water meters, plus heat and allocation products 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment revenue eased slightly, due to lower sales of legacy electricity products 3.

Networked Solutions

Includes communicating endpoints, network infrastructure and headend software, including AMI and distribution automation 1. It was the most affected segment in the second quarter of 2026, with revenue falling on project timing and lower volumes 3.

Outcomes

Includes AI-enabled software and services that analyze anonymized data, with largely recurring revenue 1. It is the main recent growth driver, with revenue rising in the second quarter of 2026 on services 3.

Resiliency Solutions

A new segment reported from the fourth quarter of 2025, covering worker safety, emergency preparedness and damage prevention 1. It includes the Urbint and Locusview acquisitions, and integration is progressing to plan 23.

Market context

The market is dominated by utilities, whose investment pace depends on regulation, subsidies and budget cycles, which makes sales uneven 1. Demand is supported by electrification, data centers, integration of distributed energy resources and aging infrastructure 1.

Trends

  • Demand for smarter gridstailwind

    Rising consumption, renewable integration and data-center demand could support investment in grid edge infrastructure 1.

  • Regulatory policymixed

    If smart grid and smart metering regulations are delayed or reduced, utility investment could decline 1.

  • Cost and supply chain pressureheadwind

    Inflation, tariffs and semiconductor shortages can raise costs and delay deliveries, and recovering them through prices is not assured 1.

  • Shift to recurring software and servicestailwind

    A move toward recurring revenue, such as Outcomes, could improve margins and revenue predictability 13.

Competitive position

The market is fragmented, with large diversified competitors and low-cost device suppliers in Asia that can pressure prices 1. Itron's stated advantage rests on its device- and transport-agnostic IIoT platform, end-to-end integration and partner ecosystem 1.

  • LM Ericsson Telephone Company

    Named as a competitor in utility communications and networking 1.

  • Landis+Gyr

    Meter and smart metering systems provider named as a primary competitor 1.

  • Advanced Energy Industries

    Named as a competitor in energy equipment and technology 1.

  • Xylem, Inc.

    Named as a competitor in water and infrastructure 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Itron, Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Itron, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Itron, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.