olivLaw · US equity research
Olin Corporation OLN
Chemicals & Allied Products · SIC 2800 · Vertical: Chemicals & Allied Products (SIC 2800)
Olin is a vertically integrated global chemicals maker and a leading U.S. ammunition manufacturer, organized in three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy and Winchester. The company is going through a difficult stretch, with net losses in 2025 and the first half of 2026, and the announced merger with Huntsman could reshape its profile. Sales for 2025 were 6780.8 million USD, and the net loss was 100.5 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Olin Corporation (OLN) stock was 18.08 USD (+3.14% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 bn USD, dividend yield 4.42%, beta 1.33, 52-week range 14.71–30.14 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.7 bn USD (+2.0% YoY), net income of 14.4 m USD (−67.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.13 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 13.82 – 18.09
- in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 26.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.45 / 22.25
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.36 / 0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.1% | −1.1% | +12.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.4% | −0.5% | −3.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −37.2% | +4.4% | −41.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.2% | +12.3% | −25.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −7.6% | +13.5% | −21.1 pp | +3.3% |
| 3 years | −59.5% | +76.4% | −135.9 pp | −23.2% |
| 5 years | −71.0% | +63.7% | −134.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Gross profit | 157.9 m | 148.7 m | 138.1 m | 183.4 m | 31.3 m | 75.8 m | 170.2 m | 172.7 m |
| SG&A | 100.3 m | 101.0 m | 95.2 m | 98.1 m | 169.0 m | 145.0 m | 102.7 m | 98.4 m |
| Operating income | 47.3 m | 43.7 m | 35.3 m | 82.8 m | -156.5 m | -78.3 m | 46.5 m | 59.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 129.2 m | 132.2 m | 129.9 m | 133.8 m | 125.7 m | 117.2 m | 122.1 m | 114.4 m |
| Interest expense | 44.9 m | 48.5 m | 45.6 m | 45.2 m | 50.2 m | 43.2 m | 44.3 m | 44.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 10.0 m | 2.1 m | -6.8 m | 41.5 m | -197.9 m | -118.3 m | 3.8 m | 17.1 m |
| Income tax | -100.0 k | 900.0 k | -4.0 m | -2.2 m | -54.7 m | -35.3 m | 17.1 m | 2.7 m |
| Net income | 10.1 m | 1.2 m | -2.8 m | 43.7 m | -143.2 m | -83.0 m | -13.3 m | 14.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 ≈ | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.37 | -1.28 ≈ | -0.73 | -0.12 | 0.13 |
| Operating cash flow | 141.7 m | -86.0 m | 212.3 m ≈ | 26.7 m ≈ | 321.2 m | -48.6 m | 7.9 m ≈ | 110.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 51.0 m | 61.4 m | 31.0 m ≈ | 71.1 m ≈ | 62.8 m | 43.7 m | 29.0 m ≈ | 33.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 23.3 m | 23.0 m | 23.0 m ≈ | 22.8 m ≈ | 22.8 m | 22.8 m | 22.8 m ≈ | 22.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 43.5 m | 20.2 m | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.1 m | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.8% | −12.0% | −5.8% | +54.8% | +5.2% | −27.1% | −4.3% | +3.7% |
| Net income | 327.9 m | -11.3 m | -969.9 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 452.0 m | 105.0 m | -101.1 m |
| Net income YoY | −40.3% | −103.4% | unavailable | unavailable | +2.3% | −65.9% | −76.8% | −196.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.95 | -0.07 | -6.14 | 7.96 | 8.94 | 3.57 | 0.91 | -0.88 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −40.2% | −103.6% | unavailable | unavailable | +12.3% | −60.1% | −74.5% | −196.7% |
| net % | 4.7% | -0.2% | -16.8% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 1.6% | -1.5% |
| Free cash flow | 522.6 m | 231.7 m | 134.1 m | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 738.3 m | 308.1 m | 247.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 167.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.51x
- Current ratio
- 1.21x
- ROE
- -5.2%
- ROA
- -1.4%
- FCF margin
- 3.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.8 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 383.4 m ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 737.5 m | 501.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 422.0 m | 416.9 m | 393.9 m | 406.7 m | 408.5 m | 463.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -746.7 m | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 712.1 m | 296.5 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 568.4 m | 582.5 m | 598.8 m | 533.4 m | 518.1 m | 521.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -178.3 m ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 814.6 m ≈ | 526.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 292.7 m | 348.0 m | 143.9 m | 181.1 m | 184.5 m | 188.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 559.3 m | 141.7 m | -161.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -50.1 m | 242.0 m | 349.1 m | 107.3 m | 36.7 m | -60.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -969.9 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 452.0 m | 105.0 m | -101.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -6.14 | 7.96 | 8.94 | 3.57 | 0.91 | -0.88 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 157.9 m | 163.0 m | 148.5 m | 128.8 m | 119.5 m | 114.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.80 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 189.7 m | 180.5 m | 194.0 m | 170.3 m | 175.6 m | 167.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 674.7 m | 868.3 m | 941.9 m | 858.8 m | 823.5 m | 784.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 399.4 m | 331.7 m | 273.8 m | 245.8 m | 206.6 m | 174.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.3 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 729.2 m | 847.7 m | 837.7 m | 775.4 m | 861.6 m | 806.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 26.3 m | 201.1 m | 9.7 m | 78.8 m | 129.0 m | 109.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 6.8 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn † | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 433.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 974.3 m | 503.2 m | 474.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 298.9 m | 200.6 m | 236.9 m | 236.0 m | 195.1 m | 226.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 134.1 m ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 738.3 m ≈ | 308.1 m ≈ | 247.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -835.7 m | -197.4 m | -259.7 m | -340.8 m | -283.7 m | -319.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 371.0 m | -1.6 bn | -1.6 bn | -656.9 m | -212.6 m | -163.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 126.3 m | 127.8 m | 116.2 m | 101.0 m | 94.2 m | 91.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 251.9 m | 1.4 bn | 711.3 m | 300.3 m | 50.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 42 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation50
- Returns82
- Quality66
- Balance sheet11
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.51 – 74.85 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)25.13 – 74.85 (Mid 41.28)WACC 6.8% · starting FCFF 374.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 81%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -21.4%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)10.51 – 14.14 (Mid 12.06)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 42/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -2.3% | 67 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.3% | 64 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -10.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 8.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 55 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.9x | 10 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 10.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 41.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality66/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Olin Corporation (OLN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin -3.3%; ROE -12.2%; net debt/EBITDA 8.0x.
The estimated value range is 17.82–44.49 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.67 USD, the price of 18.08 USD leaves a potential of 47.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 32.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 10.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 41.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -10.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 8.0x
- Interest coverage: -0.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 13.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM).
Versus the vertical median
Chemicals & Allied Products (SIC 2800) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials Inc. | 9.1 bn | 28.3 | 13.6% | 7.8% | +3.1% | +21% / unavailable |
| BCPCBalchem Corporation | 5.8 bn | 34.4 | 13.0% | 15.4% | +8.8% | +17% / +46% |
| PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc. | 4.6 bn | — | -30.9% | -44.9% | +16.4% | +1% / +575% |
| NGVTIngevity Corporation | 2.5 bn | 50.1 | 64.4% | 4.7% | −2.7% | +41% / +90% |
| CCThe Chemours Company | 2.1 bn | — | -339.7% | -5.2% | +0.4% | +8% / −50% |
| OLNOlin Corporation | 2.1 bn | — | -12.2% | -3.3% | +3.7% | −8% / −60% |
| IOSPInnospec Inc. | 2.0 bn | 14.2 | 10.5% | 7.5% | −3.7% | +8% / −23% |
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | 1.7 bn | — | -11.8% | -5.8% | −5.8% | −5% / −60% |
| ECVTEcovyst Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -9.6% | -7.1% | +20.9% | +8% / +5% |
| FMCFmc Corporation | 998.7 m | — | -226.7% | -151.2% | −18.3% | −55% / −88% |
| ACNTAscent Industries Co. | 124.0 m | — | -1.1% | -1.0% | −7.2% | −3% / +68% |
| CITRCitroTech Inc. | 54.8 m | — | -431.0% | -1,788.4% | +194.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| LOOPLoop Industries, Inc. | 13.0 m | — | — | -2,154.3% | −95.3% | −77% / −92% |
| GUREGulf Resources, Inc. | 5.6 m | — | -32.4% | -134.4% | +231.8% | +3% / −80% |
| ADURAduro Clean Technologies Inc. | — | — | -133.8% | -5,253.1% | −31.5% | −26% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OLN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Olin is a vertically integrated global chemicals maker and a leading U.S. ammunition manufacturer, organized in three segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy and Winchester. The company is going through a difficult stretch, with net losses in 2025 and the first half of 2026, and the announced merger with Huntsman could reshape its profile. Sales for 2025 were 6780.8 million USD 1, and the net loss was 100.5 million USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is a vertically integrated producer with a cost advantage in chlor alkali thanks to low-cost energy, scale and integration 1.
- The Winchester segment has strong distributor relationships and long-term military contracts that support steady revenue 1.
- The Epoxy segment offers a broad product range and integration into low-cost raw materials 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Cyclical pricinghigh
Prices for chlor alkali and epoxy products are cyclical, and periods of oversupply can sharply reduce profitability 1.
- High indebtednesshigh
High net debt and the financial covenants of the credit facility could limit flexibility if results do not improve 3.
- Merger execution riskmedium
Completing the Huntsman merger depends on regulatory approvals and shareholder votes, and integration could prove difficult 2.
- Operational risksmedium
Unplanned plant outages, such as the one at Freeport, can significantly reduce results 3.
- Energy and raw material costsmedium
Rising costs for natural gas, power and metals could be hard to pass on to customers 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If epoxy and ammunition margins keep improving, quarterly results could return to profitability.
- The Huntsman merger could create a combined company with a broader product and customer base.
- The cost program and integrated chlor alkali position could support results even during volatile periods.
What would break the thesis
- Repeated net losses and declining gross margins could point to structural profitability issues.
- High indebtedness, combined with litigation payments, could limit the company's ability to invest.
- Subsidized Asian competition in epoxy could keep prices low for an extended period.
What to watch
- Third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and full restart of the Freeport VCM plantQ3 2026
- Third quarter results, including trends in chlor alkali and EDC pricingQ3 2026
- Status of regulatory approvals and shareholder votes for the Huntsman merger2027
- Net debt and leverage level after the remaining payment to Shintechnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Olin Corporation, a Virginia company based in Clayton, MO, manufactures and distributes chemicals and ammunition; according to its annual report, it is a leading global chlor alkali producer and a major U.S. ammunition maker 1. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment represented 54% of 2025 sales, Epoxy 20%, and Winchester 26% 1. The business is capital intensive, and the company aims to maximize returns across the full electrochemical unit (ECU) through a value-first operating model 1.
Sales for 2025 rose to 6780.8 million USD from 6540.1 million USD in 2024, but gross margin fell to 7% of sales from 11% in 2024 1. For the first half of 2026, sales were 3324.9 million USD, compared with 3402.5 million USD a year earlier 2. The company also has a joint venture with Plug Power, Hidrogenii, LLC, which produces liquefied hydrogen 1.
In June 2026, Olin signed a definitive all-stock merger of equals agreement with Huntsman Corporation, which would form OlinHuntsman Corporation; completion is expected in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder votes 2. In 2025, Winchester acquired the small caliber ammunition manufacturing assets of AMMO, Inc. 1.
Market context
The chlor alkali and vinyls market is cyclical, with periods of excess capacity pushing prices down; the company notes that energy and raw material prices influence demand 1. The epoxy market is under pressure from subsidized Asian competition, and global demand remains weak 2. The ammunition market depends on civilian demand, military contracts and metal costs, with tariff effects layered on top 1.
Most sales are in North America, but the company is exposed to economic conditions in Europe, Asia and Latin America, where demand and prices can shift quickly 1. The Middle East conflict has raised uncertainty in energy markets, though its direct impact on operations has so far been limited 2.
Trends
- Tariffs and international trademixed
After the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that struck down emergency tariffs, the administration moved to other legal tools, and copper and steel costs for Winchester rose partly because of tariffs 2. The company says the direct impact has been limited, but retaliatory tariffs on caustic soda and EDC exports could change the economics quickly 1.
- Recovery in the Epoxy segmenttailwind
Epoxy margins improved in the second quarter of 2026 on better pricing and lower operating costs, although benzene and propylene costs rose 3. This progress could continue if European demand recovers, but Asian competition remains a pressure 2.
- Energy and raw material costsheadwind
Higher natural gas and electric power costs weighed on the second quarter of 2026, and EDC pricing softened 3. If these costs stay high, chlor alkali margins could remain under pressure 1.
- Beyond250 cost programtailwind
Management says structural cost actions under the Beyond250 program supported chlor alkali performance in the second quarter of 2026 3. Efficiency gains could offset price pressure, but delivery depends on execution 1.
- EDC transition and litigationmixed
The dissolution of the Blue Water Alliance joint venture with Mitsui and the new supply agreement with Braskem change how the company participates in EDC 1. VCM-related litigation has been costly, and remaining payments could weigh on liquidity in the second half of 2026 3.
Competitive position
In chlor alkali and vinyls, Olin competes with global producers of caustic soda and EDC; the company names its large customers, including paper, aluminum and PVC producers, while its sources describe competitors only in general terms 1. In epoxy, the pressure comes mainly from subsidized Asian producers 2.
In ammunition, Winchester competes with U.S. and international producers for commercial customers, armed forces and police; the sources do not name these competitors 1. The Huntsman merger could change the company's competitive position in chemicals 2.
- Asian epoxy resin producers
Asian competitors that, according to the company, sell epoxy resins at subsidized prices in U.S. and European markets.
- Huntsman Corporation
Merger partner in the agreement announced in June 2026, which would form a combined company; the sources do not describe it as a direct competitor.
- South American PVC producers
Companies such as Braskem, which buys EDC from Olin and is part of the regional vinyls chain.
- U.S. and foreign ammunition producers
Competitors in the small caliber commercial and military segment against which Winchester is compared in its sources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Aug 2026Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Aug 2026Other events
- Current report11 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Olin Corporation · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Olin Corporation · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Olin Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.