olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Paradium.AI, Inc. PAAI

Cable & Other Pay Television Services · SIC 4841 · Vertical: Cable & Other Pay Television Services (SIC 4841)

0.92USD0.00% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Paradium.AI, formerly The Arena Group, is a brand, data and IP company that runs portfolios of digital sites in sports, lifestyle and finance, and is now repositioning as an AI-powered technology platform. The company reported revenue of 134,828 thousand USD in 2025, while second-quarter 2026 revenue fell to 22.2 million USD amid search algorithm changes.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Paradium.AI, Inc. (PAAI) stock was 0.92 USD (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 43.8 m USD, P/E 4.8 on diluted EPS of 0.19 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.47, 52-week range 0.71–5.15 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 22.2 m USD (−50.7% YoY), net income of -176.0 k USD (−100.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.00 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
43.8 m USD
shares as of 10 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
4.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.19 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
20.79%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.47
Volatility (1y) 194%
52-week range
0.715.15

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
48.4
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.64 – 1.11
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.59 · band width 53.7%
SMA 50 / 200
1.09 / 1.79
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.07 / -0.10
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−13.2%−1.1%−12.1 pp—
3 months−39.1%−0.5%−38.6 pp—
6 months−66.4%+4.4%−70.8 pp—
Year to date−77.0%+12.3%−89.3 pp—
1 year−81.4%+13.5%−95.0 pp−11.5%
3 years−76.2%+76.4%−152.6 pp−1.7%
5 years−91.6%+63.7%−155.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−86.2%
05 Nov 2025 → 26 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−96.6%
24 Nov 2021 → 14 Nov 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−39.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
22.2 m USD
−50.7% YoY
Net income
-176.0 k USD
−100.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.00
−100.0% YoY
net / operating
-0.8% / 10.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue33.6 m-72.8 m31.8 m45.0 m29.8 m28.2 m20.4 m22.2 m
Cost of revenue16.6 m17.2 m16.1 m19.6 m14.8 m15.9 m13.3 m13.5 m
Gross profit17.0 m19.1 m15.7 m25.4 m14.9 m12.3 m7.1 m8.7 m
Operating income8.1 m10.3 m7.4 m16.4 m9.5 m7.5 m-304.0 k2.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation905.0 k899.0 k890.0 k881.0 k877.0 k821.0 k893.0 k908.0 k
Interest expense3.2 m2.9 m3.0 m2.9 m2.8 m2.6 m2.4 m2.5 m
Pre-tax income4.8 m7.3 m4.3 m13.4 m6.6 m4.9 m-2.8 m-246.0 k
Income tax40.0 k133.0 k286.0 k979.0 k-304.0 k-441.0 k-142.0 k-70.0 k
Net income4.0 m6.9 m4.0 m108.6 m6.9 m5.3 m-2.7 m-176.0 k
Diluted EPS0.110.14 ≈0.082.280.140.11 ≈-0.060.00
Operating cash flow-2.3 m ≈-8.6 m3.7 m10.3 m ≈12.2 m ≈13.1 m2.0 m90.0 k ≈
Capex27.0 k ≈0——0 ≈0——

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 83 percentile of its own 6-quarter history (min 0.9, median 2.2, max 31.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022⚠ 202320242025
Revenue5.7 m53.3 m128.0 m189.1 m13.3 m143.6 m16.9 m134.8 m
Revenue YoY+7,303.3%+835.8%+140.0%+47.7%−93.0%—−88.2%+698.2%
Net income-26.1 m-38.5 m-89.2 m-89.9 m-70.9 m-55.6 m-100.7 m124.9 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-7.87-4.02-2.49-2.852.62
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
net %-457.3%-72.2%-69.7%-47.6%-534.7%-38.7%-596.2%92.6%
Free cash flow-7.4 m-57.1 m-33.5 m-15.1 m-11.8 munavailable-16.1 m39.2 m

The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
10.3 m USD
Financial debt
97.6 m USD
Net debt
87.2 m USD
Equity
-4.8 m USD
Total assets
112.6 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.10x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
109.1%
FCF margin
29.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
143.6 m
2024
16.9 m
2025
134.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
88.4 m
2024
70.2 m
2025
66.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
55.3 m
2024
55.7 m
2025
68.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-17.5 m
2024
7.9 m
2025
40.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
4.2 m
2024
3.7 m
2025
3.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-13.2 m ≈
2024
11.6 m ≈
2025
44.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
18.0 m
2024
14.7 m
2025
11.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-37.0 m
2024
-7.4 m
2025
29.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
197.0 k
2024
249.0 k
2025
520.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-55.6 m
2024
-100.7 m
2025
124.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-2.49
2024
-2.85
2025
2.62

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
22.3 m
2024
35.4 m
2025
47.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
9.3 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
31.7 m
2024
31.1 m
2025
22.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
90.4 m
2024
40.2 m
2025
35.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
328.0 k
2024
148.0 k
2025
56.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
42.6 m
2024
42.6 m
2025
42.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
27.5 m
2024
22.8 m
2025
22.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
188.9 m
2024
116.4 m
2025
112.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
7.8 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
102.3 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2024verified

Long-term debt
2023
102.3 m
2024
110.4 m
2025
97.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
236.0 m
2024
122.3 m
2025
17.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
247.7 m
2024
246.5 m
2025
117.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-59.0 m †
2024
-130.3 m †
2025
-4.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Jan 2021verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-24.8 m
2024
-16.1 m
2025
39.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
54.0 k
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
-16.1 m ≈
2025
39.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.2 m
2024
-5.2 m
2025
-9.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
22.9 m
2024
16.3 m
2025
-23.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
698.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
116.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
418.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
42.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
22.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
27.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
86.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
27.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
0 USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
27.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
291.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
121.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
106 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
18 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
43.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
130.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
20.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
6.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
62.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 83 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.92 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 43.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
43.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
698.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 10 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 1847derived 147

Score by group

  • Quality88
  • Growth100
  • Valuation94
  • Balance sheet59

Estimated value range

Low
6.27
USD per share
Mid
11.58
USD per share
High
13.64
USD per share
Price: 0.92 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 1,158.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 92.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.52 – 41.11 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)17.63 – 41.11 (Mid 24.82)
    WACC 6.4% · starting FCFF 36.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 84%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA6.27 – 13.64 (Mid 11.58)
    3 companies used · median multiple 28.4x · quartiles 17.1x – 32.7x
    CABO, CHTR, WBD
  • Peers: P/E2.52 – 5.19 (Mid 3.50)
    4 companies used · median multiple 18.3x · quartiles 13.2x – 27.1x
    ADEA, CCZ, CHTR, ROKU
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Cable & Other Pay Television Services (SIC 4841)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 83/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality9.3%75 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality291.8%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth116.7%100 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.8x75 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.8x5 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.4x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation4.8x100 (on a fixed band)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.8x84 (on a fixed band)15%
FCF yield · Valuation62.4%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

THE ARENA GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (PAAI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 134.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 698.2%; net margin 9.3%; net debt/EBITDA 3.8x.

The estimated value range is 6.27–13.64 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.58 USD, the price of 0.92 USD leaves a potential of 1,158.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 92.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 83/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 9.3%
  • FCF conversion: 291.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 116.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.8x
  • Current ratio: 2.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 4.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.8x
  • FCF yield: 62.4%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: 1.8x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Cable & Other Pay Television Services (SIC 4841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
4.8x
vertical median 18.3x
below median (−73.8%)
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
vertical median 28.4x
below median (−79.6%)
P/S
0.4x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−68.3%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.4x
ROE
—
vertical median -2.1%
Net margin
9.3%
vertical median -2.4%
above median
EBIT margin
18.9%
vertical median 5.0%
above median (+274.4%)
Revenue YoY
698.2%
vertical median -0.1%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
3.8x
vertical median 6.6x
below median (−41.9%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.9%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc.77.7 bn—-9.2%-8.8%−5.1%unavailable / unavailable
CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.32.6 bn3.129.7%9.1%−0.6%−40% / −70%
ROKURoku, Inc.24.1 bn48.218.2%9.3%+15.2%+68% / +56%
ADEAAdeia Inc.1.9 bn16.625.9%25.0%+17.9%+37% / +84%
OPTUOptimum Communications, Inc.188.1 m——-58.1%−4.1%−64% / −70%
PAAIThe Arena Group Holdings, Inc.43.8 m4.8—9.3%+698.2%−81% / −76%
CABOCable One, Inc.29.8 m—-126.2%-72.8%−4.9%−96% / −99%
GLIBALiberty Capital Corp——-21.0%-32.5%+3.0%−31% / unavailable
LBTYALiberty Global Ltd.——-22.3%-44.4%+12.4%−16% / +16%
CCZComcast Corporation—20.111.9%9.2%−0.0%+1% / +17%
RCIRogers Communications Inc.——49.0%31.8%+5.4%−12% / −20%
AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.——-2.1%-0.9%−4.5%−5% / −44%
LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.——-32.1%-3.9%−0.1%+47% / +88%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PAAI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
0.62
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
1.09
Total return 18% · Per year 18%
1.63
Total return 77% · Per year 77%
3 years
0.73
Total return -20% · Per year -7%
1.44
Total return 56% · Per year 16%
2.35
Total return 155% · Per year 37%
5 years
0.87
Total return -5% · Per year -1%
1.90
Total return 107% · Per year 16%
3.38
Total return 268% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.36
  • Net margin± 0.25
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.19
  • Annual dilution± 0.02

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Paradium.AI, formerly The Arena Group, is a brand, data and IP company that runs portfolios of digital sites in sports, lifestyle and finance, and is now repositioning as an AI-powered technology platform. The company reported revenue of 134,828 thousand USD in 2025, while second-quarter 2026 revenue fell to 22.2 million USD amid search algorithm changes.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company owns a portfolio of established brands and a variable-cost model that gives it a flexible operating structure.
  • Its debt maturity has been extended and the company reported positive operating cash flow in the first half of 2026.
  • Its proprietary platform and audience data could support services for creators and corporate clients.

Weaknesses

  • Quarterly revenue fell sharply in 2026 and the company reported a loss in the second quarter.
  • The company depends on search engine traffic, and algorithm changes have reduced its published audience.
  • Debt remains high relative to revenue, and loan covenants may limit operational flexibility.

Opportunities

  • AI-based B2B services could open new revenue streams if corporate clients adopt them.
  • Digital commerce through ShopHQ and affiliate revenue could monetize the existing audience better.
  • Expansion into underserved verticals could grow audience and revenue if the strategy proves effective.

Threats

  • Generative AI can reduce traffic and copy content without compensation.
  • Competition from social platforms and search engines may limit advertising revenue.
  • Economic uncertainty could reduce advertising budgets and pressure RPM.

Risks

  • Dependence on search engine algorithmshigh

    Algorithm changes could reduce traffic to the company’s content and its advertising revenue.

  • Indebtednesshigh

    Debt agreements may impose operating restrictions and could lead to default if performance declines.

  • Generative artificial intelligencemedium

    New technologies can reproduce the company’s content without authorization and may harm its brands.

  • Dependence on outside creatorsmedium

    Loss of key contributors could affect content production and revenue.

  • Data regulationlow

    Privacy and data collection laws may restrict behavioral advertising.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If new AI-based tools stabilize the audience, the company could recover part of the revenue it has lost.
  • The InfoSentience acquisition and Cutter Studios could open B2B revenue streams with higher margins than traditional advertising.
  • Extending the debt maturity may ease short-term financial pressure and allow investment in the platform.

What would break the thesis

  • Quarterly revenue fell sharply in 2026 and the company reported a loss from continuing operations.
  • Traffic dropped severely after algorithm changes, and recovery could be slow or incomplete.
  • Debt remains significant, and the transformation strategy may not produce results quickly enough.

What to watch

  • Trend of revenue and traffic after search algorithm optimizationsQ3 2026
  • Completion of the rebrand to Paradium.AI and launch of Cutter Studios products2026
  • Contribution of B2B services to revenuenext 10-K
  • Evolution of RPM and cash positionQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company builds, acquires and scales digital sites with specialized audiences, grouped into sports and leisure, finance and lifestyle verticals under brands such as Parade, TheStreet, Men’s Journal and Athlon Sports. Its entrepreneurial publishing model links costs to channel performance, with creators earning a share of revenue from their own sections. Since 2025 the company has also integrated the ShopHQ brand, focused on digital commerce.

Revenue comes mainly from digital advertising, measured by RPM, which was 23.84 USD in 2025 versus 23.31 USD in 2024. The company also pursues affiliate and social commerce revenue and syndicates content through outside partners.

In August 2026 the company announced its rebrand to Paradium.AI, the acquisition of InfoSentience and the launch of Cutter Studios, a proprietary AI-assisted video and article production platform aimed at B2B clients.

Segments

Sports and Leisure

The vertical includes brands such as Athlon Sports, The Spun, Lindy’s Sports, Men’s Journal and the Adventure Network, with titles such as Surfer, Powder and Bike.

Finance

The vertical is anchored by TheStreet and includes Autoblog, acquired in 2025, with business coverage, market data and consumer tools for the automotive market.

Lifestyle

The vertical is anchored by Parade and includes brands such as PetHelpful, Parade Pets, TravelHost, DenGarden and Parade Home & Garden.

Market context

The digital media market is fragmented, and competition for audience attention and advertising budgets comes from niche creators as well as global technology platforms. Seasonality shapes revenue, with the first quarter usually weakest and the fourth quarter strongest.

Advertising revenue depends on search engine traffic, and changes to Google algorithms can sharply reduce visitors. Digital advertising pricing, including RPM, is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.

Trends

  • Search engine algorithm changesheadwind

    Updates in late 2025 reduced external traffic, and the company says optimization and AI-driven tools could stabilize its audience if they work as intended.

  • Artificial intelligence in content productionmixed

    The company sees AI as a way to lower production costs and build B2B services, but generative technologies can also reproduce its content without authorization.

  • Debt refinancingtailwind

    Extending the debt maturity by three years with the current lender could reduce near-term refinancing risk if the financial structure holds.

  • Pressure on advertising pricesheadwind

    The company reported lower RPM in the first half of 2026, reflecting softer advertising yields across digital media.

Competitive position

Competitors include niche digital publishers such as Vice and BuzzFeed, large media companies such as Fortune, CNN and ESPN, and social platforms such as YouTube and Facebook, which compete for advertising budgets and creators.

The company also benchmarks itself against diversified digital holding companies such as People Inc. and Ziff Davis, although it does not view them as direct competitors. Its stated advantage lies in its unified technology and proprietary audience data.

  • Vice

    Niche content producer using social media, mobile and video to compete for advertising dollars.

  • BuzzFeed

    Niche digital publisher competing for advertising and audience attention.

  • Ziff Davis

    Diversified digital holding company used by the company as a benchmark, not a direct rival.

  • YouTube

    Platform open to creators that competes for advertising dollars and publishers.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report18 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report18 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Sept 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
  • Current report11 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report11 May 2026
  • Current report17 Mar 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Paradium.AI, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Paradium.AI, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Paradium.AI, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.