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olivLaw · US equity research

Douglas Dynamics, Inc. PLOW

Construction Machinery & Equip · SIC 3531 · Vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

38.12USD+3.98% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Douglas Dynamics makes snow and ice control equipment, truck-mounted cranes and dump hoists, and upfit services for commercial vehicles in North America. It reported a record second quarter in 2026 and raised its annual outlook, after a stretch of weak winters. For today's analysis the key issues are dependence on snowfall and material costs, as shown in and.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW) stock was 38.12 USD (+3.98% on the day), with market capitalisation 879.7 m USD, P/E 13.8 on diluted EPS of 2.76 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.15%, beta 0.80, 52-week range 29.61–54.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 218.0 m USD (+34.5% YoY), net income of 21.2 m USD (+165.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.89 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
879.7 m USD
shares as of 03 Nov 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8
Diluted EPS TTM 2.76 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.24%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.15%
DPS 12m 1.20
Beta (2y)
0.80
Volatility (1y) 36%
52-week range
29.6154.20

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
37.90 – 41.04
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 8.0%
SMA 50 / 200
40.09 / 43.07
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.46 / -0.30
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−6.3%−1.1%−5.2 pp—
3 months−16.5%−0.5%−16.0 pp—
6 months−16.1%+4.4%−20.5 pp—
Year to date+16.8%+12.3%+4.4 pp—
1 year+28.6%+13.5%+15.0 pp+13.1%
3 years+40.0%+76.4%−36.4 pp+21.9%
5 years−12.6%+63.7%−76.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−32.4%
29 Jun 2026 → 03 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.9%
16 Nov 2021 → 09 Jul 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−2.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
218.0 m USD
+34.5% YoY
Net income
21.2 m USD
+165.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.89
+169.7% YoY
net / operating
9.7% / 14.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue143.5 m115.1 m194.3 m162.1 m184.5 m137.8 m214.6 m218.0 m
Cost of revenue107.8 m86.9 m134.0 m124.0 m136.4 m100.0 m147.9 m158.2 m
Gross profit35.7 m28.1 m60.3 m38.1 m48.1 m37.8 m66.8 m59.8 m
SG&A21.1 m23.4 m21.8 m22.5 m27.3 m26.3 m29.8 m27.0 m
Operating income13.0 m3.2 m37.0 m14.1 m19.3 m9.9 m35.4 m31.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation3.9 m3.8 m3.8 m3.8 m3.9 m3.9 m3.8 m3.8 m
Pre-tax income10.0 m490.0 k34.1 m10.4 m16.5 m7.9 m33.7 m28.4 m
Income tax2.1 m342.0 k8.2 m2.5 m3.6 m1.5 m8.3 m7.2 m
Net income7.9 m148.0 k26.0 m8.0 m12.8 m6.4 m25.4 m21.2 m
Diluted EPS0.330.001.090.330.540.261.070.89
Operating cash flow74.4 m-1.3 m-11.4 m ≈-8.5 m ≈95.9 m-994.0 k-24.2 m ≈-22.3 m ≈
Capex4.2 m2.2 m3.0 m ≈2.9 m ≈2.8 m3.2 m4.1 m ≈3.9 m ≈
Dividends paid7.0 m7.0 m6.9 m ≈7.0 m ≈7.0 m7.1 m7.1 m ≈6.9 m ≈
Share repurchases006.0 m ≈0 ≈03.0 m3.0 m ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 8.6, median 19.8, max 31.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue524.1 m571.7 m480.2 m541.5 m616.1 m568.2 m568.5 m656.1 m
Revenue YoY+10.3%+9.1%−16.0%+12.8%+13.8%−7.8%+0.1%+15.4%
Net incomeunavailableunavailable-86.6 m30.7 m38.6 m23.7 m56.2 m46.9 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+25.8%−38.6%+136.7%−16.5%
Diluted EPS1.892.11-3.811.291.630.982.361.96
Diluted EPS YoY−21.3%+11.6%−280.6%unavailable+26.4%−39.9%+140.8%−16.9%
net %unavailableunavailable-18.0%5.7%6.3%4.2%9.9%7.1%
Free cash flow48.5 m65.8 m38.7 m48.7 m27.6 m2.7 m33.4 m63.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.3 m USD
Financial debt
149.0 m USD
Net debt
140.7 m USD
Equity
281.4 m USD
Total assets
626.7 m USD
Debt / equity
0.53x
Current ratio
2.78x
ROE
17.2%
ROA
7.7%
FCF margin
9.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
568.2 m
2024
568.5 m
2025
656.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
433.9 m
2024
421.7 m
2025
481.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
134.3 m
2024
146.8 m
2025
174.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
10.1 m
2024
8.4 m
2025
7.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
78.8 m
2024
91.7 m
2025
94.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
44.9 m
2024
88.7 m
2025
73.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
21.7 m
2024
17.9 m
2025
15.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
66.6 m ≈
2024
106.6 m ≈
2025
89.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
476.0 k
2024
198.0 k
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
29.2 m
2024
73.9 m
2025
61.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
5.5 m
2024
17.7 m
2025
14.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
23.7 m
2024
56.2 m
2025
46.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.98
2024
2.36
2025
1.96

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
23.0 m
2024
23.5 m
2025
23.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.18
2024
1.18
2025
1.18

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
24.2 m
2024
5.1 m
2025
8.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
83.8 m
2024
87.4 m
2025
97.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
140.4 m
2024
137.0 m
2025
149.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
262.2 m
2024
238.2 m
2025
266.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
67.3 m
2024
41.3 m
2025
44.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
113.1 m
2024
113.1 m
2025
116.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
121.1 m
2024
113.6 m
2025
116.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
593.4 m
2024
590.0 m
2025
626.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
31.4 m
2024
32.3 m
2025
38.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
47.0 m
2024
0
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
189.4 m
2024
147.5 m
2025
144.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
118.5 m
2024
70.2 m
2025
95.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
231.6 m †
2024
264.2 m †
2025
281.4 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
12.5 m
2024
41.1 m
2025
74.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.8 m
2024
7.8 m
2025
10.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.7 m ≈
2024
33.4 m ≈
2025
63.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-10.5 m
2024
56.8 m
2025
-37.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.5 m
2024
-117.0 m
2025
-34.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
27.4 m
2024
27.5 m
2025
27.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
6.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-17.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-16.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
6.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
91.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
28.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
14.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
12.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
19.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
16.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
43.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
81.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
90.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
insufficient data

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
48.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
14.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
34.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
52.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
43.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
95 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
103 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
170 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
879.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
970.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
10.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
25.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 66 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

38.12 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 879.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
879.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
22.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Nov 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 2677derived 162

Score by group

  • Balance sheet93
  • Growth30
  • Quality74
  • Returns55
  • Valuation70

Estimated value range

Low
24.06
USD per share
Mid
31.29
USD per share
High
36.83
USD per share
Price: 38.12 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -17.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -21.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.51 – 128.07 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)15.74 – 26.89 (Mid 20.01)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 34.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 28.7%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA32.38 – 46.78 (Mid 42.57)
    3 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 7.5x – 10.5x
    AEBI, ASTE, MTW
  • Peers: P/E89.97 – 128.07 (Mid 113.13)
    5 companies used · median multiple 41.0x · quartiles 32.6x – 46.4x
    AEBI, ASTE, CAT, CNH, MTW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)15.51 – 20.85 (Mid 17.79)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 66/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality19.8%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality8.7%71 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality52.4%32 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.1%18 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth6.3%42 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.8x91 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.0x97 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.8x100 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation8.7x57 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation3.9%49 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.9%55 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns81.8%55 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth30/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality74/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC (PLOW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 656.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.4%; net margin 8.7%; ROE 22.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.

The estimated value range is 24.06–36.83 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 31.29 USD, the price of 38.12 USD leaves a potential of -17.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -21.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 19.8%
  • Net margin: 8.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8x
  • Current ratio: 2.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 13.8x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.1%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.8x
vertical median 41.0x
below median (−66.3%)
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
vertical median 10.5x
below median (−17.1%)
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+123.1%)
P/B
2.8x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+123.2%)
ROE
22.2%
vertical median 3.8%
above median (+491.5%)
Net margin
8.7%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+590.9%)
EBIT margin
12.7%
vertical median 4.0%
above median (+214.2%)
Revenue YoY
15.4%
vertical median 4.3%
above median (+259.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.8x
vertical median 3.2x
below median (−74.2%)
Dividend yield
3.1%
vertical median 1.2%
above median (+166.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CATCaterpillar Inc270.6 bn23.256.1%15.2%+4.3%+3% / +136%
CNHCnh Industrial N.V.14.5 bn47.04.0%1.7%−8.8%+24% / +9%
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.904.9 m46.42.9%1.3%+8.1%−11% / +26%
AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AG902.5 m41.03.6%1.1%+40.6%−2% / unavailable
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc879.7 m13.822.2%8.7%+15.4%+29% / +40%
MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.837.7 m32.63.8%1.1%+2.9%+106% / +62%
CMCOColumbus McKinnon Corporation537.7 m—-30.8%-19.6%+23.9%+13% / −47%
GENCGencor Industries, Inc.——6.9%13.5%+2.0%+31% / +17%

1- and 3-year price returns: for PLOW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
22.70
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
40.18
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
60.59
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
20.99
Total return -38% · Per year -15%
41.90
Total return 20% · Per year 6%
69.53
Total return 95% · Per year 25%
5 years
19.41
Total return -38% · Per year -9%
43.70
Total return 32% · Per year 6%
79.78
Total return 132% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 10.48
  • Net margin± 7.33
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.16
  • Annual dilution± 0.62

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

In brief

Douglas Dynamics makes snow and ice control equipment, truck-mounted cranes and dump hoists, and upfit services for commercial vehicles in North America. It reported a record second quarter in 2026 and raised its annual outlook, after a stretch of weak winters. For today's analysis the key issues are dependence on snowfall and material costs, as shown in 1 and 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A large installed base and well-known brands create customer loyalty and predictable replacement sales 1.
  • An extensive distribution network and efficient production allow fast response to sudden winter demand 1.
  • Cash generation is described as strong, supporting dividends, buybacks and acquisitions 1.

Weaknesses

  • Sales depend heavily on the amount and timing of snow, making results volatile from year to year 1.
  • Parts carry slightly higher margins but bring much lower revenue than equipment 1.
  • The company relies on outside suppliers and OEMs for chassis, which can cause delays and extra costs 1.

Opportunities

  • Integrating Venco Venturo and expanding cranes and dump hoists opens new revenue lines 13.
  • Distribution expansion into states south of the snow belt and UTV plows could add new demand 1.
  • Sustained municipal demand and capacity investment could strengthen the Solutions segment 3.

Threats

  • Low-snow winters, including from climate change, could hurt sales 1.
  • Higher steel prices or tariffs could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 12.
  • An economic slowdown or municipal budget cuts could delay equipment purchases 1.

Risks

  • Snowfall dependencehigh

    Attachments results depend on snow, and weak seasons can reduce sales and cash flow in following years 1.

  • Steel priceshigh

    Steel is a key material, and its volatile price could reduce margins if it cannot be passed on to customers 1.

  • Tariffs and trademedium

    Tariffs and export restrictions on materials from China could raise costs, and the final effect of tariff decisions remains uncertain 2.

  • Suppliers and OEMsmedium

    Supplier or OEM delays and failures to meet volume and quality needs could affect deliveries 1.

  • Acquisition integrationlow

    The company must reach the projected performance of Venco Venturo assets, and unexpected costs could weigh on results 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The second quarter of 2026 was a record, with higher sales and adjusted EBITDA, and annual guidance was raised 3.
  • The large installed base and distribution network provide predictable replacement demand even in variable-snow years 1.
  • The Venco Venturo acquisition and strong municipal demand could support revenue growth in coming years 13.

What would break the thesis

  • Results depend heavily on snow, and weak seasons have already reduced sales in the past 1.
  • Commercial demand in Work Truck Solutions softened, and segment adjusted EBITDA fell in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • Steel costs and tariffs could squeeze margins if customers become more price-sensitive 12.

What to watch

  • Attachments sales in the third quarter as pre-season shipments split roughly evenly between quartersQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the raised adjusted EBITDA and sales guidance ranges2026
  • Effect of IEEPA tariff refunds and tariffs on cost of salesnext 10-Q
  • Commercial demand trends in Work Truck Solutions and cost optimisation measuresQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).

The business

Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE: PLOW) describes itself as North America's premier manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment 1. It runs two segments: Work Truck Attachments, which includes FISHER, SNOWEX and WESTERN snow and ice control products plus VENCO and VENTURO cranes and dump hoists, and Work Truck Solutions, which covers HENDERSON municipal products and DEJANA upfit 1. Venco Venturo was acquired in 2025 and extends the Attachments range 1.

Net sales for fiscal 2025 were 656.1 million USD, up from the prior year, and net income was 46.9 million USD 1. Work Truck Attachments generated 295.7 million USD of sales and Work Truck Solutions 360.3 million USD 1. The business relies on an installed base of over 500,000 snowplows and spreaders and a network of about 3,000 points of sale 1.

The model is seasonal: Attachments sales depend on the level, timing and location of snowfall, and distributors typically buy in the second and third quarters 1. Parts and accessories, roughly a fifth of Attachments sales, provide a revenue stream that follows each equipment sale 1.

Segments

Work Truck Attachments

The segment covers snow and ice control equipment for light trucks, cranes and dump hoists, and related parts 1. In the second quarter of 2026 sales rose 20% to 129.3 million USD, supported by pre-season demand and the Venco Venturo addition 3.

Work Truck Solutions

The segment focuses on truck and vehicle upfit, storage solutions and municipal products 1. In the second quarter of 2026 sales were roughly flat at 85.3 million USD, but adjusted EBITDA fell on weaker commercial demand, partly offset by municipal strength 3.

Market context

Demand for snow equipment is driven mainly by the replacement cycle of the installed base, which depends on wear and on snowfall in a given season 1. The company notes snowfall was below average for seven seasons in a row up to 2025, and the season ended March 2025 was 17.6% below the 1980-2025 average 1. The market is dominated by North American producers, and in Work Truck Solutions competition comes from regional upfitters 1.

The market is also shaped by US economic conditions, municipal budgets and steel prices, a significant cost component 1. Prices rose sharply in the 2021-2023 inflation period, and in 2024 and 2025 increases returned to the historical range of 2% to 4% a year 1.

Trends

  • Snowfall variabilitymixed

    Low-snow seasons reduced Attachments sales in 2023 and 2024, and a better winter more recently supported the recovery 13. If snowfall stays below average, equipment demand could decline.

  • Municipal demandtailwind

    Municipal demand for equipment and upfit supports Work Truck Solutions, and the company is investing in capacity to meet it 3. If government budgets tighten, demand could slow 1.

  • Softer commercial demandheadwind

    Management flagged softer commercial demand in some Solutions business lines, leading to actions to optimise sales and cost 3.

  • Tariffs and material costsmixed

    Tariffs on materials from China and steel demand could raise costs, and the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, with partial refunds already received 2. The final effect remains uncertain.

Competitive position

The company says it competes only with other North American manufacturers and upfitters and names no listed competitors 1. Its cited advantages are product breadth, distribution network and operational efficiency 1.

In Work Truck Solutions the company is a regional leader in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, competing with other regional upfitters and smaller firms 1. Competition could compress margins if customers become more price-sensitive 1.

  • Other regional upfit producers

    Regional upfitters operating near OEM plants, not named in the source 1.

  • Smaller upfit businesses

    Smaller firms in the upfit market competing in local niches 1.

  • Other North American snow equipment makers

    North American producers in snow and ice control, not identified in the source 1.

  • Offshore component suppliers

    Offshore sourcing is an indirect source of cost competition 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Douglas Dynamics, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Douglas Dynamics, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Douglas Dynamics, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.