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olivLaw · US equity research

CNH Industrial N.V. CNH

Construction Machinery & Equip · SIC 3531 · Vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

11.25USD−3.93% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

CNH Industrial is a global maker of agricultural and construction equipment, with a financial services arm that finances customers and dealers. In 2026 the company is going through a trough in the farm cycle, with weaker Agriculture sales and modest growth in Construction, and it narrowed its annual guidance toward the higher end of earlier ranges.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) stock was 11.25 USD (−3.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 13.9 bn USD, P/E 45.2 on diluted EPS of 0.25 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.89%, beta 1.04, 52-week range 9.22–14.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.8 bn USD (+2.0% YoY), net income of 138.0 m USD (−35.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.11 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
13.9 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
45.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.25 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.21%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.89%
DPS 12m 0.10
Beta (2y)
1.04
Volatility (1y) 43%
52-week range
9.2214.40

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
10.96 – 12.15
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 10.3%
SMA 50 / 200
12.54 / 11.34
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.26 / -0.30
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−15.2%−1.1%−14.1 pp—
3 months+3.7%−0.5%+4.1 pp—
6 months+3.8%+4.4%−0.6 pp—
Year to date+22.0%+12.3%+9.7 pp—
1 year+7.4%+13.5%−6.1 pp+2.7%
3 years−0.8%+76.4%−77.2 pp+24.3%
5 years−26.8%+63.7%−90.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−24.8%
17 Feb 2026 → 01 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−48.5%
01 Feb 2023 → 31 Dec 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−6.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.8 bn USD
+2.0% YoY
Net income
138.0 m USD
−35.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.11
−35.3% YoY
net / operating
2.9% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue4.7 bn4.9 bn3.8 bn4.7 bn4.4 bn5.2 bn3.8 bn4.8 bn
Cost of revenue3.1 bn3.3 bn2.6 bn3.2 bn3.0 bn3.6 bn2.6 bn3.4 bn
Research & development221.0 m238.0 m184.0 m218.0 m281.0 m342.0 m232.0 m230.0 m
SG&A426.0 m414.0 m386.0 m478.0 m549.0 m463.0 m465.0 m494.0 m
Interest expense378.0 m———————
Pre-tax income385.0 m127.0 m162.0 m275.0 m51.0 m132.0 m13.0 m172.0 m
Income tax75.0 m89.0 m47.0 m76.0 m1.0 m60.0 m4.0 m43.0 m
Net income306.0 m173.0 m131.0 m213.0 m80.0 m86.0 m7.0 m138.0 m
Diluted EPS0.240.14 ≈0.100.170.060.07 ≈0.010.11
Operating cash flow791.0 m ≈1.7 bn162.0 m772.0 m ≈659.0 m ≈945.0 m35.0 m145.0 m ≈
Dividends paid6.0 m ≈7.0 m1.0 m320.0 m ≈1.0 m ≈11.0 m1.0 m126.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 17-quarter history (min 7.0, median 10.5, max 45.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019⚠ 202020212022202320242025
Revenue29.7 bn28.1 bn14.8 bn19.5 bn23.6 bn24.7 bn19.8 bn18.1 bn
Revenue YoY+7.2%−5.5%—+31.9%+20.8%+4.8%−19.7%−8.8%
Net income1.1 bn1.4 bn-493.0 m1.7 bn2.0 bn2.3 bn1.2 bn510.0 m
Net income YoY+292.6%+33.1%—unavailable+17.8%+12.1%−45.2%−59.1%
Diluted EPS0.781.05-0.361.271.491.690.990.41
Diluted EPS YoY+290.0%+34.6%—unavailable+17.3%+13.4%−41.4%−58.6%
net %3.6%5.1%-3.3%8.8%8.6%9.2%6.3%2.8%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.6 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
7.8 bn USD
Total assets
42.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
6.6%
ROA
1.2%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
24.7 bn
2024
19.8 bn
2025
18.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
16.8 bn
2024
13.4 bn
2025
12.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
7.8 bn ≈
2024
6.5 bn ≈
2025
5.7 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
1.0 bn
2024
924.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
1.3 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.7 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
620.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
594.0 m
2024
336.0 m
2025
184.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
510.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.69
2024
0.99
2025
0.41

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.40
2024
0.47
2025
0.25

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.3 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
5.5 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
46.3 bn
2024
42.9 bn
2025
42.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
38.1 bn
2024
35.2 bn
2025
34.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
8.1 bn
2024
7.7 bn
2025
7.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2022verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
907.0 m
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.7 bn
2024
-2.8 bn
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.6 bn
2024
-67.0 m
2025
-2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
538.0 m
2024
607.0 m
2025
333.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-59.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-58.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-35.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
30.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
40.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
150 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
13.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
44.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
45.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

11.25 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 13.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
13.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
45.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-8.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Aug 2026
verified 943derived 60

Score by group

40% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
4.53
USD per share
Mid
5.68
USD per share
High
7.07
USD per share
Price: 11.25 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -49.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -98.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.29 – 9.72 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E5.78 – 9.72 (Mid 7.58)
    5 companies used · median multiple 30.4x · quartiles 23.2x – 39.0x
    AEBI, ASTE, CAT, MTW, PLOW
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.29 – 4.42 (Mid 3.77)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality1.7%57 (vs peers)16%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-8.4%0 (on a fixed band)21%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-35.0%0 (on a fixed band)21%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation45.2x0 (vs peers)26%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.0%14 (on a fixed band)16%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial57/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial14/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. (CNH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -8.8%; net margin 1.7%; ROE 4.0%.

The estimated value range is 4.53–7.07 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.68 USD, the price of 11.25 USD leaves a potential of -49.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -98.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -35.0%
  • P/E (TTM): 45.2x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Construction Machinery & Equip (SIC 3531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
45.2x
vertical median 30.4x
above median (+48.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.3x
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 0.5x
above median (+58.9%)
P/B
1.8x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+56.8%)
ROE
4.0%
vertical median 3.8%
above median (+6.4%)
Net margin
1.7%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+35.7%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 4.5%
Revenue YoY
-8.8%
vertical median 8.1%
below median (−208.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.8x
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median 1.5%
below median (−40.9%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CATCaterpillar Inc270.6 bn23.256.1%15.2%+4.3%+3% / +136%
CNHCnh Industrial N.V.13.9 bn45.24.0%1.7%−8.8%+7% / −1%
AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AG859.1 m39.03.6%1.1%+40.6%−7% / unavailable
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc849.9 m13.322.2%8.7%+15.4%+14% / +35%
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.814.2 m41.72.9%1.3%+8.1%−20% / +14%
MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.782.4 m30.43.8%1.1%+2.9%+92% / +51%
CMCOColumbus McKinnon Corporation478.2 m—-30.8%-19.6%+23.9%+1% / −53%
GENCGencor Industries, Inc.——6.9%13.5%+2.0%+25% / +12%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CNH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
6.07
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
10.78
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
16.31
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
4.82
Total return -55% · Per year -24%
9.73
Total return -11% · Per year -4%
16.31
Total return 48% · Per year 14%
5 years
3.83
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
8.78
Total return -18% · Per year -4%
16.31
Total return 50% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 2.43
  • Net margin± 1.70
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.54
  • Annual dilution± 0.14

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

CNH Industrial is a global maker of agricultural and construction equipment, with a financial services arm that finances customers and dealers. In 2026 the company is going through a trough in the farm cycle, with weaker Agriculture sales and modest growth in Construction, and it narrowed its annual guidance toward the higher end of earlier ranges 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a full product range and strong brands such as Case IH and New Holland, with a wide global presence supported by a dealer network 1.
  • The Financial Services division supports sales through direct financing for customers and dealers, which strengthens customer relationships 1.
  • Investment in precision technology, GNSS and automation gives the company an innovation edge that competitors cannot easily copy quickly 1.

Weaknesses

  • Margins in both Agriculture and Construction compressed in 2026, while labor and tariff costs increased 3.
  • High exposure to a farm cycle with volatile demand makes production planning difficult and creates inventory carrying costs and idle capacity 1.
  • Significant debt and the high cost of financing limit financial flexibility and the ability to raise additional funds 1.

Opportunities

  • A recovery in construction demand and tariff refunds could arrive in coming periods if conditions improve 23.
  • Adoption of precision technology and compact electric equipment opens new markets and customer segments 1.
  • Reducing dealer inventory and optimizing the dealer network could support a margin recovery after the current cycle 3.

Threats

  • A prolonged farm downturn with low crop prices and high costs could keep demand weak for longer 2.
  • Unstable trade policies and retaliatory measures can raise costs and complicate the supply chain 2.
  • Competition from regional manufacturers and Asian players may pressure prices in emerging markets 1.

Risks

  • Farm cyclehigh

    Lower farmer incomes can reduce demand for machinery and hit sales and profitability, and past downturns were severe and prolonged 12.

  • Tariffs and international tradehigh

    Changes in trade policy can raise import costs and limit sales in some markets, and uncertainty remains high 12.

  • Financial portfolio qualitymedium

    Rising past-due receivables in Financial Services, especially in South America, can weigh on the division's results and funding capacity 3.

  • Debt and financing costsmedium

    A high debt load and restrictive covenants can limit financial flexibility if capital markets deteriorate 1.

  • Tax residency and PFIC statuslow

    UK tax residency and a possible passive foreign investment company classification could create additional tax exposure for US investors 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the farm cycle stabilizes, reducing dealer inventory and aging fleets could support a return of demand for new equipment 3.
  • Technology leadership in precision and automation could support market share and pricing in premium segments, especially if customers adopt these solutions quickly 1.
  • Recovery of tariffs and better supply chain efficiency could support margins in the years ahead 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If farmer incomes stay under pressure longer than expected, demand for tractors and combines could decline further 13.
  • Adjusted EBIT margins clearly fell in 2026, and a high debt load can limit flexibility in difficult periods 13.
  • Rising past-due receivables and credit risk in Financial Services could weigh more on results if South American economic conditions worsen 3.

What to watch

  • Agriculture adjusted EBIT margin against the 5.0% to 5.5% guidanceQ3 2026
  • Level of past-due receivables and risk provisions in Financial ServicesQ3 2026
  • Recovery of IEEPA tariffs and its effect on cost of sales2026
  • Signs of a demand recovery for tractors and combines in North America2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company is headquartered in Basildon, United Kingdom, and is listed on the NYSE under the symbol CNH 13. The Financial Services division, known commercially as CNH Capital, finances retail and wholesale purchases and operates as Banco CNH in Brazil 1.

Recent acquisitions expanded technology capabilities: Raven Industries (2021), Hemisphere GNSS and Augmenta (2023), and Sampierana, which gave direct control over mini and midi excavators 1. The company pursues organic growth and dealer network rationalization 1.

Segments

Construction

The Construction segment covers excavators, dozers, graders, loaders and compact equipment under CASE Construction, New Holland Construction and Eurocomach 1. Second-quarter 2026 net sales were 866 million USD, up, but adjusted EBIT margin dropped to 1.7% due to tariffs and higher R&D spending 3.

Market context

The company views the current period as a cyclical downturn and sees long-term fundamentals supported by global protein demand and adoption of precision technologies 1. A recovery would depend on farm economics and commodity prices improving, factors outside the company's control 12.

Trends

  • Farm cycle at a troughheadwind

    Farmer income remains under pressure from input costs and expensive financing, and the company is aligning production and inventory accordingly 23. If crop prices stabilize, demand could gradually recover.

  • Precision technology and automationtailwind

    GNSS, connectivity and autonomy can raise farm productivity and may drive replacement demand for older equipment 1. The company is investing in Precision Technology and a new generation of combines.

  • Tariffs and supply chainmixed

    US tariffs and retaliatory measures raise the cost of imported products, but the Supreme Court invalidated some IEEPA tariffs and the company expects to recover about 150 million USD 2. The final effect remains uncertain.

  • Financing costs and customer arrearsheadwind

    Higher interest rates raise financing costs for farmers and for the company, and past-due receivables increased, particularly in South America 23. If rates fall, pressure on demand could ease.

Competitive position

Competition in agriculture and construction is global, and CNH competes with full-line equipment makers and regional players, especially in emerging markets 1. Competitor actions and any failure to respond effectively could affect results 1.

In more developed markets customers favor advanced technology, while in developing markets lower price and durability matter more, which leaves room for local manufacturers 1. The company must defend its position through innovation and range expansion 1.

  • Deere & CompanyDE

    A major agricultural equipment competitor with a broad range of tractors and combines, cited as a reference for the global farm machinery market.

  • AGCOAGCO

    An agricultural equipment maker with regional brands that competes with CNH in European and South American markets.

  • CaterpillarCAT

    A significant competitor in heavy construction equipment and road-building machinery.

  • Regional compact equipment makers

    Local manufacturers in Asia and Eastern Europe that compete on price in light and compact construction equipment segments.

News & filings

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CNH Industrial N.V. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / CNH Industrial N.V. · 03 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CNH Industrial N.V. · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.