olivLaw · US equity research
Rithm Capital Corp. RITM
Real Estate Investment Trusts · SIC 6798 · Vertical: Real Estate Investment Trusts (SIC 6798)
Rithm Capital is a global asset manager combining real estate, credit and financial services through mortgage origination and servicing, residential transitional lending, asset management and investment portfolios. In December 2025 it expanded its asset management arm with the Crestline acquisition and took on Class A New York and San Francisco office properties, diversifying its revenue mix. It reported roughly 61 billion USD of assets under management for the third quarter of 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) stock was 9.50 USD (+3.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.3 bn USD, P/E 13.8 on diluted EPS of 0.69 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 10.53%, beta 0.78, 52-week range 8.35–12.06 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.8 bn USD (+58.9% YoY), net income of 253.3 m USD (+14.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.12 – 9.72
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 17.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.26 / 9.68
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.09 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.7% | −1.1% | +9.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.9% | −0.5% | −5.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.5% | +4.4% | −7.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.8% | +12.3% | −25.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −13.6% | +13.5% | −27.1 pp | +7.5% |
| 3 years | −3.9% | +76.4% | −80.4 pp | +19.0% |
| 5 years | −17.5% | +63.7% | −81.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 976.9 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 24.5 m | 24.6 m | 23.8 m | 23.1 m | 36.0 m | 92.6 m | 93.5 m | 92.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 492.6 m | 56.8 m | 306.4 m | 236.9 m | 206.3 m | 154.2 m | 86.9 m | 519.1 m |
| Income tax | 200.7 m | -23.9 m | -11.6 m | 8.1 m | 115.7 m | 44.8 m | 19.0 m | 257.8 m |
| Net income | 290.2 m | 78.8 m | 311.7 m | 221.5 m | 85.0 m | 102.7 m | 56.3 m | 253.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.55 ≈ | 0.07 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.15 ≈ | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Operating cash flow | -1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | -557.1 m ≈ | -2.0 bn ≈ | -114.6 m | 100.7 m | 174.1 m ≈ | -1.6 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 89 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 3.6, median 7.6, max 18.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ⚠ 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +6.3% | −31.2% | — | +32.0% | −24.1% | +31.7% | −6.7% |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 605.9 m | -1.4 bn | 805.6 m | 983.3 m | 622.3 m | 931.5 m | 697.1 m |
| Net income YoY | −1.0% | −39.7% | −324.1% | — | +22.1% | −36.7% | +49.7% | −25.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.81 | 1.34 | -3.52 | 1.51 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.67 | 1.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −10.8% | −52.3% | −362.7% | — | +19.2% | −38.9% | +51.8% | −37.7% |
| net % | 44.1% | 25.0% | -81.4% | 21.6% | 20.0% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 15.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
The series breaks before 2021: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 35.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 33.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 8.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 53.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.96x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 8.3%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 89.5 m | 80.7 m | 124.1 m | 107.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 584.5 m | 497.3 m | 791.0 m | 1.4 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.3 bn | 963.8 m | 1.3 bn | 752.8 m | 1.2 bn | 806.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 16.9 m | 158.2 m | 279.5 m | 122.2 m | 267.3 m | 88.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.4 bn | 805.6 m | 983.3 m | 622.3 m | 931.5 m | 697.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.52 | 1.51 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.67 | 1.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 415.5 m | 467.7 m | 481.6 m | 483.7 m | 499.6 m | 546.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.50 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 944.9 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 27.0 m | 56.6 m | 37.9 m | 40.0 m | 70.5 m | 82.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 29.5 m | 85.2 m | 85.2 m | 131.9 m | 133.8 m | 316.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 34.1 m | 143.1 m | 141.4 m | 387.9 m | 331.9 m | 370.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 33.3 bn | 39.7 bn | 34.6 bn | 39.7 bn | 46.0 bn | 53.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 25.8 bn | 29.8 bn | 22.0 bn | 27.0 bn | 32.6 bn | 35.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 27.8 bn | 33.1 bn | 27.6 bn | 32.6 bn | 38.2 bn | 43.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.4 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.8 bn | 693.6 m | -2.2 bn | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | 8.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 132.9 m | 216.7 m | -2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -10.1 bn | -5.2 bn | -5.8 bn | -842.5 m | 4.8 bn | -507.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 332.5 m | 375.9 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2022verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.5 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2022verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Market and valuation
9 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns70
- Growth0
- Valuation97
- Quality37
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.14 – 43.94 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Net asset value (NAV)unavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)
- Peers: P/B16.76 – 43.94 (Mid 29.24)32 companies used · median multiple 1.9x · quartiles 1.1x – 2.8xAKR, ALX, BRX, CHCT, COLD, DLR, DOC, EPR, ESS, EXR, FPI, FRT, GNL, HST, IRT, JBGS, KIM, LXP, NHI, O, PLD, PSA, RLJ, SELF, SITC, SLG, STAG, UDR, VICI, VMRK, VTR, WELL
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 5.8% | 37 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EBITDA margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 31% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.8x | 91 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 10.5% | 90 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 144.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Quality· partial37/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation97/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -6.7%; net margin 8.7%; ROE 5.8%.
The estimated value range is 14.95–30.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.15 USD, the price of 9.50 USD leaves a potential of 133.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 57.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/B: 0.6x
- P/E (TTM): 13.8x
- Dividend yield: 10.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.3%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 144.8%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EBITDA margin, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Real Estate Investment Trusts (SIC 6798) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLWelltower Inc. | 181.9 bn | 106.2 | 4.0% | 12.7% | +35.6% | +19% / +178% |
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | 122.5 bn | 33.1 | 7.1% | 42.5% | +7.2% | +2% / +14% |
| EQIXEquinix Inc | 104.3 bn | 63.3 | 11.5% | 16.4% | +5.4% | +40% / +29% |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation | 90.4 bn | 27.3 | 90.6% | 30.7% | +5.1% | +7% / −7% |
| DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc. | 65.0 bn | 48.3 | 6.2% | 21.7% | +10.0% | +15% / +33% |
| PSAPublic Storage | 64.0 bn | 34.9 | 16.0% | 37.8% | +2.7% | +25% / +32% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | 56.3 bn | 40.8 | 3.6% | 22.9% | +9.1% | +3% / +10% |
| VTRVentas, Inc. | 47.2 bn | 167.8 | 1.9% | 4.0% | +18.5% | +11% / +95% |
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | 39.2 bn | 48.6 | — | 20.1% | −4.4% | +1% / −21% |
| IRMIron Mountain Inc | 35.3 bn | 84.0 | — | 5.7% | +12.2% | +37% / +85% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | 33.6 bn | 32.7 | 7.9% | 29.9% | +3.7% | +21% / +24% |
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | 27.8 bn | 11.6 | 8.3% | 56.5% | +4.1% | −12% / −16% |
| VMRKVivmark Residential | 23.9 bn | 27.9 | 8.1% | — | +4.8% | +3% / +12% |
| SBACSba Communications Corporation | 20.7 bn | 21.1 | — | 34.5% | +5.1% | +1% / −21% |
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 17.9 bn | 17.5 | 15.8% | 16.5% | +7.6% | +48% / +49% |
| ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc. | 17.5 bn | 41.7 | 8.0% | 22.7% | +6.4% | +3% / +27% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | 17.4 bn | 28.6 | 5.8% | 27.8% | +5.1% | +25% / +34% |
| DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 37.1 | 4.9% | 12.3% | +4.5% | +10% / +16% |
| UDRUDR, Inc. | 11.8 bn | 17.5 | 21.8% | 40.8% | +2.4% | +2% / +11% |
| FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust | 9.9 bn | 19.9 | 15.6% | 38.6% | +6.4% | +16% / +20% |
| BRXBrixmor Property Group Inc. | 9.3 bn | 22.0 | 14.2% | 30.0% | +6.7% | +16% / +40% |
| STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 27.1 | 7.6% | 29.9% | +10.1% | −4% / +6% |
| RITMRithm Capital Corp. | 5.3 bn | 13.8 | 5.8% | 8.7% | −6.7% | −14% / −4% |
| EPREpr Properties | 4.7 bn | 16.8 | 12.7% | 38.8% | +2.9% | +16% / +36% |
| COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -16.5% | -17.4% | −2.4% | +40% / −46% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RITM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.75 Total return -22% · Per year -22% | 11.97 Total return 35% · Per year 35% | 18.09 Total return 101% · Per year 101% |
| 3 years | 5.68 Total return -21% · Per year -8% | 11.43 Total return 47% · Per year 14% | 19.08 Total return 135% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 4.79 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 10.91 Total return 59% · Per year 10% | 20.13 Total return 170% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 2.86
- Net margin± 2.00
- Annual revenue growth± 1.76
- Annual dilution± 0.17
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
In brief
Rithm Capital is a global asset manager combining real estate, credit and financial services through mortgage origination and servicing, residential transitional lending, asset management and investment portfolios. In December 2025 it expanded its asset management arm with the Crestline acquisition and took on Class A New York and San Francisco office properties, diversifying its revenue mix. It reported roughly 61 billion USD of assets under management for the third quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated platform spanning origination, servicing, lending and asset management can generate diversified revenue, partly fee-based, which may reduce reliance on any single segment 13.
- Newrez's high operating return on equity and large servicing book point to a solid operating base in the current environment 3.
- Recent acquisitions of Crestline and Paramount expanded asset management capabilities and premium office holdings, adding new revenue sources 13.
Weaknesses
- Many asset values rest on subjective models and assumptions, and many investments are hard to liquidate, which can create earnings volatility 1.
- Significant exposure to mortgage markets and funding costs makes results sensitive to interest rate movements 12.
- The complexity of a multi-segment model and recent large acquisitions increase operational and integration risk 12.
Opportunities
- If the mortgage market recovers, origination volumes and MSR values could rise, with Newrez a direct beneficiary 13.
- Expansion into direct lending, insurance, private equity and infrastructure, cited by management, could add new revenue streams 12.
- Growth in new sponsors and in multifamily transitional loan securitizations could support expansion of the Genesis business 3.
Threats
- An unexpected rate increase or a prolonged period of high rates could weigh on originations, MSR values and funding costs 2.
- Government intervention in mortgage markets could change prices, liquidity and investor behavior, affecting asset values 1.
- Geographic exposure to California and natural disasters such as wildfires could lead to payment delays and added costs 1.
Risks
- Strategy executionmedium
The company may not successfully execute its diversified platform strategy, and integrating Crestline and Paramount could create operational pressure 1. A shortfall could weigh on results and growth 1.
- Asset valuationhigh
Many assets are valued using models and assumptions, and differences from actual outcomes could lead to significant value adjustments and lower fee income 1.
- Investment liquiditymedium
Interests in MSRs and other assets are hard to sell, and a forced sale could realize less than carrying values 1.
- Government interventionmedium
Government actions in mortgage markets could change rates, spreads and hedge effectiveness, with negative effects on the portfolio 1.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Exposure to properties in areas prone to natural disasters such as wildfires and earthquakes could affect loan and investment performance 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If mortgage and credit markets stabilize, Newrez volumes and servicing economics could support revenue, and its high operating return could continue 3.
- Growth in asset management, with recurring fee-based revenue, could reduce earnings volatility if capital inflows continue 13.
- Integrating premium office assets and the commercial real estate platform could open new revenue sources, especially if the premium segment stays firm 13.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates stay high or rise, originations and MSR values could fall and funding costs could squeeze margins 2.
- Many asset values depend on assumptions, and a revaluation could reduce book value and dividend capacity 1.
- The complexity of the platform and the number of recent acquisitions could bring integration costs and operational errors that are hard to anticipate 12.
What to watch
- Newrez origination volumes and operating return on equity trendQ4 2026
- Net capital inflows and AUM growth in asset managementQ4 2026
- Federal Reserve rate decisions and their effect on mortgage funding costs2027
- New York office performance, including rent levels and occupancy at Elecor Properties2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
The business
Rithm Capital is a New York headquartered, internally managed REIT that aims to create long-term value by identifying, acquiring, managing and enhancing real estate-related and other financial assets 1. Its platform integrates operating companies, investment portfolios and asset management across residential mortgage, real estate and credit markets 1. In December 2025 it completed the Crestline acquisition for a purchase price of approximately 324.7 million USD and the Paramount acquisition for approximately 1.8 billion USD, both expanding its asset management and commercial real estate capabilities 1.
Mortgage origination and servicing, run through the Newrez and NRM subsidiaries, earns revenue from loan sales and servicing fees, and in the third quarter of 2026 Newrez reported an annualized operating return on equity of 24% 23. The residential transitional lending arm, Genesis, finances construction, renovation and bridge projects for developers and investors 2. The asset management division, including Sculptor and Crestline, earns mainly fee-based revenue on managed assets 12.
From the first quarter of 2026 the company reports a new commercial real estate segment covering Class A office properties in New York and San Francisco, later rebranded as Elecor Properties 23. Revenue from this segment comes mainly from rent and other property-related income 2.
Segments
Origination and Servicing
Through Newrez and NRM the company originates residential mortgages across four channels and services loans it sells or securitizes. Origination funded production was 12.9 billion USD in the third quarter of 2026, down 19% quarter over quarter, while total servicing UPB reached 878.9 billion USD 3.
Residential Transitional Lending
Genesis makes short-term business-purpose loans to residential investors and developers. Third quarter 2026 origination volume was 1.5 billion USD, up 25% year over year, and the company completed an inaugural 375 million USD securitization backed entirely by multifamily transitional loans 3.
Asset Management
Rithm Asset Management, which includes Sculptor and Crestline, runs commingled funds, separate accounts and alternative vehicles with mainly fee-based revenue. It recorded 569 million USD of gross new capital and commitment inflows in the third quarter of 2026 and 2.9 billion USD year to date 3.
Market context
The US residential mortgage market is highly regulated, with bank and non-bank participants; non-bank originators have increased their share, and origination depends on rates, home prices and affordability 1. Estimated total US origination volume was 2.0 trillion USD in 2025, up from 1.7 trillion USD in 2024, with a forecast of 2.2 trillion USD for 2026 1. Mortgage rates ranged roughly between 6% and 7% through 2025, while office real estate stays segmented, with high-quality assets easier to finance 1.
On the funding side, bank lending for new office and transitional originations remains cautious, while securitized and institutional channels are more active and private-label CMBS issuance strengthened in 2025 1. These conditions matter for Rithm because they shape both the cost of capital and acquisition opportunities in recapitalizations and transitional financing 12.
Trends
- Interest rates and monetary policyheadwind
The Fed held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in April and June 2026, and projections signaled a possible rate increase later in 2026, a reversal from earlier cut expectations. If rates stay high, origination and MSR valuations could be affected 2.
- Energy price volatility and the Iran conflictheadwind
In the second quarter of 2026 macro conditions reflected persistent inflation, lower labor force participation and volatile energy prices amid the ongoing conflict with Iran 2. A sustained inflationary environment could keep pressure on funding costs and asset values.
- Recovery in premium New York officetailwind
The office market remains divergent, but premium buildings in cities such as New York are increasingly financeable, and recapitalizations and repositionings are gaining ground 1. If this trend holds, it could support occupancy and rents in the company's office portfolio 3.
- Valuation and liquidity volatilitymixed
Many of the company's assets have no observable market prices and rely on models and assumptions, while many investments are hard to sell quickly 1. If market conditions deteriorate, valuation adjustments could affect earnings and dividend capacity 1.
Competitive position
In mortgage origination and servicing the company competes with banks and other non-bank operators, while in residential transitional lending it faces regional banks and specialized private lenders 1. In asset management, larger competitors have greater resources, longer track records and broader distribution platforms, which can affect fundraising 1.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs)
Among the largest buyers of residential mortgage loans, and their conforming standards shape the rules for non-bank originators and servicers 1.
- Regional banks and private lenders
Compete with Genesis for residential transitional financing on pricing, underwriting and capital availability 1.
- Other alternative asset managers
Compete for investor capital and investment opportunities, often with greater resources and longer histories in certain strategies 1.
- Non-bank mortgage originators and servicers
Compete for origination and servicing share, where large operators can influence pricing and volumes 12.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Rithm Captial CEO on Real Estate OutlookBloomberg Markets · 28 Jul 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Jul 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
- Current report23 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 May 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Rithm Capital Corp. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Rithm Capital Corp. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Rithm Capital Corp. · 23 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.