olivLaw · US equity research
Shengfeng Development Ltd SFWL
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) · SIC 4210 · Vertical: Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210)
Shengfeng Development Ltd is a contract logistics provider in China that operates through its variable interest entity (VIE) and offers B2B freight transportation, cloud storage and value-added services. The company reported net revenue of about 572.5 million USD for fiscal 2025, up 13.6% on the prior year.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Shengfeng Development Ltd (SFWL) stock was 3.90 USD (+5.69% on the day), with P/E 30.0 on diluted EPS of 0.13 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.38, 52-week range 3.69–16.20 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 18.0
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.23 – 9.97
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.10 · band width 102.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.82 / 12.28
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.40 / -1.15
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −55.8% | −1.1% | −54.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −71.3% | −0.5% | −70.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −70.5% | +4.4% | −74.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −72.6% | +12.3% | −84.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −71.7% | +13.5% | −85.3 pp | −0.4% |
| 3 years | −97.9% | +76.4% | −174.3 pp | −15.2% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 339.2, median 339.2, max 339.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 287.5 m | 346.7 m | 370.3 m | 404.1 m | 504.2 m | 572.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +20.6% | +6.8% | +9.1% | +24.8% | +13.6% |
| Net income | 6.0 m | 6.6 m | 7.8 m | 10.3 m | 10.9 m | 11.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +9.9% | +17.2% | +32.2% | +5.7% | +9.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.13 | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +12.5% | +11.1% | +30.0% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Free cash flow | -5.6 m | -2.2 m | -2.1 m | 3.4 m | -14.5 m | -2.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 35.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 78.5 m USD
- Net debt
- 43.2 m USD
- Equity
- 138.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 347.0 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- 9.1%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- -0.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 287.5 m | 346.7 m | 370.3 m | 404.1 m | 504.2 m | 572.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 251.5 m | 305.4 m | 328.8 m | 357.6 m | 457.9 m | 519.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 36.0 m | 41.3 m | 41.5 m | 46.5 m | 46.3 m | 53.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 6.2 m | 8.6 m | 9.8 m | 13.9 m | 14.7 m | 16.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.7 m | 5.9 m | 7.0 m | 6.4 m | 6.4 m | 6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 10.9 m ≈ | 14.5 m ≈ | 16.8 m ≈ | 20.4 m ≈ | 21.0 m ≈ | 23.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 2.3 m | 2.2 m | 1.8 m | 2.0 m | 2.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 7.6 m | 8.2 m | 9.4 m | 12.6 m | 12.5 m | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | 1.6 m | 2.3 m | 1.7 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 6.0 m | 6.6 m | 7.8 m | 10.3 m | 10.9 m | 11.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.13 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2024verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 80.0 m | 80.0 m | 80.0 m | 81.8 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 27.8 m | 18.9 m | 21.3 m | 26.7 m | 34.7 m | 35.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 80.6 m | 89.1 m | 97.7 m | 127.3 m | 136.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 7.6 m | 8.2 m | 9.4 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | — | 121.7 m | 135.7 m | 149.1 m | 205.2 m | 216.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 47.3 m | 40.3 m | 41.1 m | 60.0 m | 70.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 7.5 m | 6.7 m | 12.2 m | 11.4 m | 11.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 244.2 m | 245.3 m | 265.8 m | 310.1 m | 347.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 54.1 m | 57.0 m | 60.6 m | 88.7 m | 89.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 46.0 m | 47.7 m | 36.1 m | 39.4 m | 44.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 46.0 m | 47.7 m | 36.1 m | 16.4 m | 33.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 125.4 m | 130.8 m | 136.4 m | 162.7 m | 170.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 148.3 m | 150.2 m | 153.5 m | 186.7 m | 208.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 84.4 m | 95.9 m | 95.1 m | 112.3 m | 123.4 m | 138.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.3 m | 20.4 m | 4.8 m | 14.1 m | 15.0 m | 16.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 7.9 m | 22.6 m | 6.9 m | 10.8 m | 29.5 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -5.6 m ≈ | -2.2 m ≈ | -2.1 m ≈ | 3.4 m ≈ | -14.5 m ≈ | -2.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -7.8 m | -27.7 m | -6.7 m | -18.8 m | -32.6 m | -37.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 13.1 m | -2.1 m | 8.2 m | 11.2 m | 29.1 m | 18.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.9% | 40 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.1% | 29 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -24.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.2x | 72 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 39 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Shengfeng Development Limited (SFWL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 572.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.6%; net margin 2.1%; ROE 9.6%; net debt/EBITDA 1.9x.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.6%
- Interest coverage: 6.2x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 2.1%
- FCF conversion: -24.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 16.3 bn | 12.9 | 14.4% | 18.5% | +15.7% | −0% / −8% |
| TFIITfi International Inc. | 8.5 bn | 26.9 | 11.6% | 3.9% | −6.1% | +15% / −15% |
| FLXBingEx Limited | 331.3 m | 21.6 | 14.1% | 2.7% | −6.7% | −54% / unavailable |
| ETSElite Express Holding Inc. | 85.7 m | — | -31.2% | -169.2% | unavailable | +214% / unavailable |
| TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -58.6% | -35.7% | +3.2% | −91% / unavailable |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | — | 22.0 | 28.7% | 4.8% | −2.6% | +19% / −25% |
| SFWLShengfeng Development Limited | — | — | 9.6% | 2.1% | +13.6% | −72% / −98% |
| HXHXHaoxin Holdings Limited | — | 0.6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | +29.2% | −69% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SFWL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026).
In brief
Shengfeng Development Ltd is a contract logistics provider in China that operates through its variable interest entity (VIE) and offers B2B freight transportation, cloud storage and value-added services. The company reported net revenue of about 572.5 million USD for fiscal 2025, up 13.6% on the prior year 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Extensive national network with coverage across hundreds of cities and a broad base of large corporate clients in diverse industries.
- Steady growth in revenue and net profit in recent years, with thin but stable margins.
- Integrated network model that limits fixed costs and the capital needed for expansion.
Weaknesses
- Very thin operating and net margins leave little room to absorb unexpected costs.
- General and administrative expenses grew faster than revenue in fiscal 2025.
- Storage revenue declined, showing growing dependence on the transportation segment.
Opportunities
- Network expansion into areas such as the greater Beijing region, the Yangtze River Delta, western and northeastern China.
- Development of express delivery services and supply chain management solutions.
- Investment in automation and electric vehicles could lower costs over the longer term.
Threats
- The VIE structure carries the risk that Chinese authorities could invalidate or reinterpret the contractual arrangements.
- Regulatory changes on overseas listings of Chinese companies could affect investor access.
- Competitive pressure and third-party carrier costs could compress margins.
Risks
- Structural VIE riskhigh
The contractual arrangements through which the company controls its China operations have not been tested in court, and authorities could adopt a different interpretation.
- Consolidation riskhigh
If the structure no longer meets the accounting criteria, the company could lose the ability to consolidate its operating subsidiary's results.
- Thin marginsmedium
Gross and net margins are small, so higher transport costs could quickly weigh on profitability.
- Reliance on large clientsmedium
Concentration on large corporate clients can create vulnerability if one of them reduces its orders.
- Staff and administrative costslow
Higher salaries and benefits in corporate functions raised operating expenses in fiscal 2025.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising revenue and transported volumes show solid demand for the company's services in China.
- The strategy of shrinking the self-owned fleet and focusing on B2B clients could improve operating efficiency.
- The broad network and relationships with leading clients could support new long-term contracts.
What would break the thesis
- The VIE structure and legal uncertainties could affect the value of the shares or access to consolidated results.
- Very thin margins leave little room for error if costs rise.
- Declining storage revenue shows difficulty in keeping all business lines growing at once.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and general and administrative expensesQ1 2027
- Development of cloud storage revenue2027
- Any change to the VIE agreements or applicable regulationsnext 10-K
- Progress of the transition to electric vehicles and fleet reduction2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026).
The business
According to its 20-F annual report, Shengfeng organizes its activity into three streams: B2B freight transportation, cloud storage services and value-added services. As of December 31, 2025, its transportation network covered 382 cities in 32 provinces, with 26 regional sorting centers, 57 Cloud OFCs and 14 service outlets 1.
The company is headquartered in Fuzhou, Fujian province, and is a Cayman Islands holding company that does not directly hold operations in China. Its results are consolidated through VIE agreements with Shengfeng Logistics, and Class A shareholders are exposed to the risks specific to this structure 1.
Its stated strategy emphasizes B2B freight transportation and large corporate clients, a reduction in service outlets for individual customers, and greater reliance on third-party transportation providers with a smaller self-owned fleet 1.
Segments
Cloud storage services
Revenue from warehouse storage management fell in fiscal 2025 as the company shifted focus toward transportation, a trend that could continue if these strategic priorities hold 1.
Value-added services
The report describes these services only as part of the integrated offering and does not show a separate revenue share, which limits independent assessment 1.
Market context
China's contract logistics market depends on economic growth, urbanization, consumption levels and the development of the manufacturing and fast-moving consumer goods industries, factors that directly shape the company's volumes 1.
Total transportation volume rose 29.3% in fiscal 2025, pointing to solid demand in the fragmented segment of medium and large clients in China 1.
Trends
- Focus on large B2B corporate clientstailwind
The company has chosen to concentrate on large corporate clients and reduce outlets serving individual customers, which could lower operating costs and support profitability.
- Shift to third-party transport providersmixed
Reducing the self-owned fleet and relying on third parties can lower fixed costs, but may also reduce control over service quality.
- Transition to electric vehiclesmixed
Replacing gasoline trucks with new energy vehicles supports green logistics goals but involves investment and adaptation costs.
- Cost and margin pressureheadwind
Gross margins remain thin, so profitability is sensitive to any rise in the cost of cooperating with third-party carriers.
Competitive position
The source does not analyze competitors in detail. The company presents itself as one of the largest contract logistics providers in China, with a national network and a large-scale client base 1.
Its stated advantages include its transportation network and brand recognition with clients such as CATL Battery, Schneider Electric and Tesla, but the source does not explicitly compare its position with other operators 1.
- SF Express
Named in the source as a brand client of the company rather than a direct rival; the market relationship with Shengfeng is not detailed in the report.
- Contract logistics operators in China
The source refers to market competition in general terms without naming other operators.
- Third-party transport providers
They are partners and at the same time actors that influence the company's costs.
- Warehousing and distribution companies
They compete in the storage segment, where the company's revenue fell in fiscal 2025.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)27 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Jun 2025
- Annual report (foreign issuer)28 Mar 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Sept 2024
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Shengfeng Development Ltd · 27 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.