olivLaw · US equity research
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ZTO
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) · SIC 4210 · Vertical: Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210)
ZTO Express is one of China's largest express delivery companies, running its own sorting and line-haul network alongside partner-operated outlets, with most of its parcel volume coming from e-commerce platforms. Total revenues reached 49,098.667 million RMB in the latest fiscal year, and parcel volume kept rising in a market where China's e-commerce growth remains central to the company's business.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock was 20.57 USD (+1.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.3 bn USD, P/E 12.9 on diluted EPS of 1.60 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.30%, beta 0.40, 52-week range 18.84–25.88 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.65 – 20.62
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 4.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 20.26 / 22.84
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.4% | −2.0% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.2% | −2.2% | −11.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −20.5% | +4.3% | −24.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.5% | +10.6% | −12.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +9.9% | +10.5% | −0.5 pp | −53.8% |
| 3 years | −16.3% | +73.7% | −89.9 pp | −28.0% |
| 5 years | −26.1% | +61.7% | −87.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 13.1, median 22.3, max 35.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +27.6% | +24.0% | +21.7% | +23.5% | +7.5% | +5.5% | +12.1% | +15.7% |
| Net income | 637.5 m | 815.0 m | 660.9 m | 746.1 m | 987.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +31.3% | +27.9% | −18.9% | +12.9% | +32.3% | +24.8% | −2.0% | +7.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.85 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 1.21 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +25.0% | +22.4% | −20.2% | +9.6% | +33.0% | +23.1% | −1.3% | +8.8% |
| net % | 24.9% | 25.7% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 19.2% | 22.8% | 19.9% | 18.5% |
| Free cash flow | 157.1 m | 239.7 m | -350.4 m | -178.9 m | 639.6 m | 962.3 m | 852.3 m | 965.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 132.0 m USD
- Equity
- 9.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 13.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.16x
- Current ratio
- 1.49x
- ROE
- 14.3%
- ROA
- 10.1%
- FCF margin
- 13.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 894.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| SG&A | 255.0 m | 294.4 m | 301.2 m | 341.6 m | 368.5 m | 377.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 728.6 m | 863.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 282.1 m | 348.6 m | 387.2 m | 405.0 m | 414.2 m | 483.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 5.4 m | 19.9 m | 27.6 m | 40.8 m | 46.3 m | 35.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 771.6 m | 900.6 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 105.7 m | 157.8 m | 236.8 m | 273.0 m | 389.8 m | 272.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 660.9 m | 746.1 m | 987.2 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.83 | 0.91 | 1.21 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 796.1 m | 820.0 m | 820.3 m | 838.9 m | 838.4 m | 820.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 114.3 m | 146.5 m | 118.7 m | 80.6 m | 206.0 m | 184.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 8.1 m | 13.0 m | 5.9 m | 4.0 m | 5.3 m | 5.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 650.0 m | 665.6 m | 615.0 m | 597.4 m | 581.1 m | 594.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 6.4 m | 5.6 m | 4.3 m | 3.3 m | 2.3 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.1 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.7 bn | 13.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 219.6 m | 542.7 m | 782.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 758.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 919.6 m | 713.5 m | 745.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -350.4 m ≈ | -178.9 m ≈ | 639.6 m ≈ | 962.3 m ≈ | 852.3 m ≈ | 965.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -544.0 m | -1.4 bn | -2.3 bn | -1.7 bn | -819.4 m | -690.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.3 bn | -455.7 m | 1.0 bn | -108.4 m | -684.3 m | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 252.8 m | 212.5 m | 191.8 m | 291.9 m | 767.9 m | 537.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 188.3 m | 598.0 m | 12.3 m | 141.8 m | 158.6 m | 179.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 77 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation71
- Returns75
- Quality72
- Balance sheet91
- Growth79
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.82 – 36.67 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)19.82 – 31.09 (Mid 24.15)WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 995.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 3.9%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E24.58 – 36.67 (Mid 33.49)4 companies used · median multiple 20.9x · quartiles 15.4x – 22.9xFLX, HXHX, TFII, UPS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 77/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.9% | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 18.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 74.4% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.0% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.8% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 42.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 57 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.9x | 78 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.3x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.9% | 74 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.4% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 55.6% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.7%; net margin 18.5%; ROE 14.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 22.20–33.88 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.82 USD, the price of 20.57 USD leaves a potential of 40.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 28.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 77/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 18.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.1x
- Interest coverage: 42.1x
- P/E (TTM): 12.9x
- FCF yield: 5.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 55.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Versus the vertical median
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 16.3 bn | 12.9 | 14.4% | 18.5% | +15.7% | +10% / −16% |
| TFIITfi International Inc. | 8.5 bn | 26.9 | 11.6% | 3.9% | −6.1% | +15% / −15% |
| FLXBingEx Limited | 331.3 m | 21.6 | 14.1% | 2.7% | −6.7% | −54% / unavailable |
| ETSElite Express Holding Inc. | 85.7 m | — | -31.2% | -169.2% | unavailable | +214% / unavailable |
| TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -58.6% | -35.7% | +3.2% | −91% / unavailable |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service Inc | — | 20.3 | 29.7% | 5.1% | −2.6% | +14% / −28% |
| SFWLShengfeng Development Limited | — | — | 9.6% | 2.1% | +13.6% | −71% / −98% |
| HXHXHaoxin Holdings Limited | — | 0.6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | +29.2% | −69% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ZTO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.30 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 23.44 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 35.21 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 14.66 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 28.90 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 47.41 Total return 130% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 16.15 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 35.62 Total return 73% · Per year 12% | 63.83 Total return 210% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 7.22
- Net margin± 5.06
- Annual revenue growth± 3.91
- Annual dilution± 0.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026).
In brief
ZTO Express is one of China's largest express delivery companies, running its own sorting and line-haul network alongside partner-operated outlets, with most of its parcel volume coming from e-commerce platforms. Total revenues reached 49,098.667 million RMB in the latest fiscal year 1, and parcel volume kept rising in a market where China's e-commerce growth remains central to the company's business 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company runs one of the most extensive express delivery networks in China, covering almost every city and county in the country 1.
- The network partner model is flexible and scalable, allowing expansion with low capital expenditure 1.
- Investment in automation and high-capacity fleet aims to lower unit costs 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on e-commercehigh
The business depends on the development of China's e-commerce sector, which is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and consumer spending 1.
- Dependence on third-party platformshigh
Decisions by e-commerce platforms, including the Alibaba ecosystem, can influence courier selection and raise operating costs 1.
- Network partner risksmedium
Partner interests may not always align with the company's, and subcontracting can reduce control over service 1.
- Corporate structure and Chinese regulationhigh
Operating through a VIE with contractual control rather than direct equity could be affected by changes in Chinese regulation 1.
- Share price volatilitymedium
The company's share prices have been volatile and could remain so, which could cause losses for investors 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If parcel volume keeps growing and automation lowers unit costs, margins could recover toward earlier levels 1.
- A higher share of enterprise customers and expansion into integrated logistics could diversify revenue 1.
- The extensive network and scalable partner model could support growth in a large market 1.
What would break the thesis
- Fee pressure and rising costs cut gross margin in the latest fiscal year, and this effect could continue 1.
- Dependence on e-commerce and on platform decisions exposes the company to rapid shifts in volume 1.
- Regulatory risks tied to the corporate structure could seriously affect operations and share value 1.
What to watch
- Trend in parcel volume and revenue per parcelQ1 2027
- Gross margin trajectory compared with fiscal 20252027
- Pace of expansion in LTL and international logistics2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (20 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026).
The business
ZTO Express provides domestic and international express delivery in China, supplemented by value-added services, combining its own sorting hubs and line-haul network with those of network partners who run pickup and delivery outlets 1. The network partner model lets the company expand with minimal capital and operating spending and adjust capacity for peak demand 1. Beyond core express delivery, the company is expanding into less-than-truckload freight, international logistics and air cargo 1.
Segments
Express delivery services
The main segment covers express delivery and enterprise customer services, which accounted for 93.1% of total revenues in fiscal 2025 1. Network transit fees charged to partners per parcel are the main source of revenue, and enterprise customers have grown as a share of express revenue in recent years 1.
Market context
Trends
- E-commerce growthmixed
China's e-commerce sector remains the main source of demand for express delivery, and rising parcel volume supports the company's revenue 1. If e-commerce growth slows, parcel volume could be affected 1.
- Automation and fleet investmenttailwind
The company has raised the share of high-capacity trailers in its fleet and expanded automated sorting lines, which lowers unit transport and handling costs 1. These investments could improve margins if volume grows enough 1.
- Pressure on delivery feesheadwind
Fees charged by network partners have declined over time, partly due to competitive pressure, and this trend could weigh on revenue per parcel 1. Adjusting network transit fees depends on market conditions and operating costs 1.
- Expansion into integrated logisticsmixed
The company aims to become an integrated logistics provider, extending into LTL, warehousing and air cargo 1. This expansion could diversify revenue sources but also carries execution risk 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a market with intense competition, where other Chinese express operators compete for e-commerce platform volume 1. Platforms influence which courier is chosen, and some run their own delivery networks, which adds competitive pressure 1.
Competition also shows up in partner pricing, since partners have pricing latitude and local competition can reduce revenue per parcel 1. The company's position depends on keeping service quality at a competitive cost 1.
- Other Chinese express delivery operators
The source names other Chinese express operators with which the company has co-invested in Cainiao Post, without giving any US tickers 1.
- E-commerce platforms' in-house delivery networks
The source notes that one e-commerce platform the company works with has built its own delivery network, which can be used instead of the company's services 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)11 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. · 17 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.