olivLaw · US equity research
UPS UPS
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) · SIC 4210 · Vertical: Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210)
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics provider with revenue of 88.7 billion USD in 2025. In the first half of 2026 revenue kept growing but margins were compressed by restructuring costs, and full-year guidance was raised to about 91.2 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, UPS (UPS) stock was 114.31 USD (+4.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 81.6 bn USD, P/E 22.0 on diluted EPS of 5.20 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.74%, beta 0.75, 52-week range 90.87–120.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 22.9 bn USD (+6.7% YoY), net income of 1.2 bn USD (−11.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 80.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 89.73 – 113.16
- above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 23.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 99.67 / 104.64
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.60 / 2.08
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +22.7% | −1.1% | +23.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.1% | −0.5% | +6.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.4% | +4.4% | +10.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.2% | +12.3% | +2.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +22.6% | +13.5% | +9.0 pp | −53.8% |
| 3 years | −20.0% | +76.4% | −96.4 pp | −15.2% |
| 5 years | −45.1% | +63.7% | −108.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.3 bn | 21.5 bn | 21.2 bn | 21.4 bn | 24.5 bn | 21.2 bn | 22.8 bn | 22.9 bn |
| Operating income | 2.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 930.0 m | 1.7 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 310.0 m | 743.0 m | 936.0 m | 926.0 m | 700.0 m | 791.0 m | 980.0 m | 965.0 m |
| Interest expense | 229.0 m | 222.0 m | 238.0 m | 291.0 m | 266.0 m | 266.0 m | 272.0 m | 289.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 761.0 m | 1.6 bn |
| Income tax | 406.0 m | 336.0 m | 379.0 m | 296.0 m | 581.0 m | 260.0 m | 157.0 m | 408.0 m |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 864.0 m | 604.0 m | 1.2 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.01 ≈ | 1.40 | 1.51 | 1.55 | 2.10 ≈ | 1.02 | 0.71 | 1.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 348.0 m ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 859.0 m ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 1.1 bn | 876.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ | 970.0 m ≈ | 716.0 m | 1.0 bn | 693.0 m ≈ | 497.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 73 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 12.7, median 19.1, max 109.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 71.9 bn | 74.1 bn | 84.6 bn | 97.3 bn | 100.3 bn | 91.0 bn | 91.1 bn | 88.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +9.1% | +3.1% | +14.2% | +15.0% | +3.1% | −9.3% | +0.1% | −2.6% |
| Net income | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 12.9 bn | 11.5 bn | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | −2.3% | −7.3% | −69.8% | +859.8% | −10.4% | −41.9% | −13.8% | −3.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.51 | 5.11 | 1.54 | 14.68 | 13.20 | 7.80 | 6.75 | 6.56 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −1.8% | −7.3% | −69.9% | +853.2% | −10.1% | −40.9% | −13.5% | −2.8% |
| net % | 6.7% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Free cash flow | 6.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 10.8 bn | 9.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 4.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 24.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 18.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 16.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 73.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.49x
- Current ratio
- 1.22x
- ROE
- 33.8%
- ROA
- 7.8%
- FCF margin
- 5.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 84.6 bn | 97.3 bn | 100.3 bn | 91.0 bn | 91.1 bn | 88.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 7.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 13.1 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 10.4 bn ≈ | 15.8 bn ≈ | 16.3 bn ≈ | 11.9 bn ≈ | 11.5 bn ≈ | 10.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 701.0 m | 694.0 m | 704.0 m | 785.0 m | 866.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 bn | 16.6 bn | 14.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 501.0 m | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 12.9 bn | 11.5 bn | 6.7 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.54 | 14.68 | 13.20 | 7.80 | 6.75 | 6.56 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 871.0 m | 878.0 m | 875.0 m | 860.0 m | 856.0 m | 850.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 4.08 | 6.08 | 6.48 | 6.52 | 6.56 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.9 bn | 10.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 10.8 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.6 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.9 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 620.0 m | 717.0 m | 889.0 m | 935.0 m | 826.0 m | 739.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 20.2 bn | 24.9 bn | 22.2 bn | 19.4 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 32.3 bn | 33.5 bn | 34.7 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 62.4 bn | 69.4 bn | 71.1 bn | 70.9 bn | 70.1 bn | 73.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 608.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 22.0 bn | 19.8 bn | 17.3 bn | 22.0 bn | 21.0 bn | 23.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 17.0 bn | 17.6 bn | 18.1 bn | 17.7 bn | 16.4 bn | 15.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 669.0 m | 14.3 bn | 19.8 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.7 bn | 16.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 10.5 bn | 15.0 bn | 14.1 bn | 10.2 bn | 10.1 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 5.0 bn ≈ | 10.8 bn ≈ | 9.3 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | 4.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.3 bn | -3.8 bn | -7.5 bn | -7.1 bn | -217.0 m | -4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.5 bn | -6.8 bn | -11.2 bn | -5.5 bn | -6.9 bn | -4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 224.0 m | 500.0 m | 3.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 500.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 64 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 81.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation65
- Returns77
- Quality92
- Balance sheet78
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 50.89 – 173.62 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)117.44 – 173.62 (Mid 139.33)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 7.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -12.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E50.89 – 119.16 (Mid 89.51)4 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 9.8x – 22.9xFLX, HXHX, TFII, ZTO
- Dividend discount (DDM)86.21 – 115.93 (Mid 98.88)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 64/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 51.6% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.8% | 71 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 143.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -20.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.0x | 69 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 37 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 22.0x | 36 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.6x | 67 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.8% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.6% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 85.3% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 88.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.6%; net margin 4.8%; ROE 28.7%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
The estimated value range is 86.21–119.16 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 98.88 USD, the price of 114.31 USD leaves a potential of -13.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -15.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 64/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 51.6%
- Net margin: 4.8%
- FCF conversion: 143.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
- FCF yield: 7.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -20.8%
Versus the vertical median
Trucking & Courier Services (No Air) (SIC 4210) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 16.3 bn | 12.9 | 14.4% | 18.5% | +15.7% | −0% / −8% |
| TFIITfi International Inc. | 8.5 bn | 26.9 | 11.6% | 3.9% | −6.1% | +15% / −15% |
| FLXBingEx Limited | 331.3 m | 21.6 | 14.1% | 2.7% | −6.7% | −54% / unavailable |
| ETSElite Express Holding Inc. | 85.7 m | — | -31.2% | -169.2% | unavailable | +214% / unavailable |
| TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc. | 2.8 m | — | -58.6% | -35.7% | +3.2% | −91% / unavailable |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | — | 22.0 | 28.7% | 4.8% | −2.6% | +23% / −20% |
| SFWLShengfeng Development Limited | — | — | 9.6% | 2.1% | +13.6% | −71% / −98% |
| HXHXHaoxin Holdings Limited | — | 0.6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | +29.2% | −69% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UPS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 73.58 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 130.66 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 197.62 Total return 79% · Per year 79% |
| 3 years | 59.68 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 120.32 Total return 20% · Per year 6% | 201.43 Total return 95% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 48.40 Total return -42% · Per year -10% | 110.79 Total return 21% · Per year 4% | 205.31 Total return 112% · Per year 16% |
- Exit P/E± 30.08
- Net margin± 21.06
- Annual revenue growth± 18.82
- Annual dilution± 1.77
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics provider with revenue of 88.7 billion USD in 2025 1. In the first half of 2026 revenue kept growing but margins were compressed by restructuring costs, and full-year guidance was raised to about 91.2 billion USD 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated global air and ground network and presence in many countries are the company's recognised strengths 1.
- The healthcare and temperature-controlled logistics portfolio, strengthened through acquisitions, offers a specialised advantage 13.
- Investment in technology, including RFID and digital customer tools, supports operating efficiency 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on one large customer created volume and revenue risk, and its reduction has pressured results 12.
- Restructuring and employee separation costs substantially reduced the operating margin in the first half of 2026 23.
- Most U.S. employees are unionised, which raises the risk of strikes or disruption 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in healthcare volumes and SMB customers could offset the decline in volumes from large customers 12.
- The USPS partnership and new international hubs could lower costs and open trade lanes in Asia 1.
- Savings from the reconfigured network could improve margins if efficiency programmes deliver 13.
Risks
- Dependence on the largest customerhigh
One customer accounted for a significant share of revenue, and its volumes are being reduced as planned; any uncontrolled cost adjustment could affect profitability 1.
- Labour disputeshigh
Most U.S. employees are unionised, and strikes or work stoppages could lead to lost customers 1.
- Cybersecurity and AImedium
Cyber-attacks and extensive use of artificial intelligence could expose sensitive data or disrupt the network 1.
- Geopolitical and trade environmentmedium
Geopolitical tensions and tariff changes could affect volumes and costs, as seen on the China to U.S. lane 12.
- Fuel costsmedium
Volatile fuel prices and supply interruptions could raise operating costs 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the raised 2026 guidance is confirmed and margins recover after restructuring, the company could show improving profitability 3.
- Growth in healthcare and the international segment could support steadier revenue over the longer term 13.
- The global network and technology investments could preserve its competitive advantage over rivals 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Delivery of the adjusted revenue and operating profit guidanceQ3 2026
- Trend in the operating margin of the U.S. Domestic Package segment after restructuringQ3 2026
- Impact of IEEPA tariff refunds and trade policy on international lanes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
UPS, founded in 1907, provides transportation and delivery through its integrated air and ground network, along with distribution, contract logistics, ocean and air freight, customs brokerage and insurance 1. In 2025 the company delivered an average of 20.8 million packages per day, serving more than 200 countries and territories 1. Its strategy Customer First, People Led, Innovation Driven focuses on healthcare, B2B, SMB and international markets 1.
In the first half of 2026 UPS completed the planned reduction of its largest customer's volume and advanced the Network of the Future initiative, which closed several buildings and launched a voluntary separation program 2. Second-quarter results showed revenue growth alongside a low operating margin due to restructuring costs 3.
Market context
The global parcel and logistics market is shaped by national and regional operators, postal services and e-commerce companies building their own capabilities 1. The company noted that volumes on certain trade lanes, especially China to U.S., declined due to trade policy, while higher pricing lifted revenue per piece but reduced volumes 2.
The macro environment remains complex, with evolving trade policy, higher fuel and network costs after the Middle East conflict, and tariff refunds following the Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 2. The company reported about 500 million USD of IEEPA tariffs eligible for refund 2.
Trends
- Growth in healthcare and cold chain logisticstailwind
The Frigo-Trans and AHG acquisitions expand cold chain capabilities, and healthcare is becoming an important growth source 12. If demand in pharmaceuticals and biotech continues, this direction could support long-term revenue.
- Growth of SMBs and digital commercetailwind
SMB penetration of U.S. volume exceeded 30%, and the Digital Access Program connects small businesses to e-commerce platforms 12. This could offset volumes lost from large customers.
- Network restructuring and labour costsmixed
The Network Reconfiguration and Driver Choice programs reduced the workforce and generated high separation costs that weighed on margins in the first half of 2026 23. If the promised savings materialise, margin pressure could ease.
- Tariff and fuel pressureheadwind
Shifts in trade policy reduced volumes on some international lanes, and fuel and charter costs rose after the Middle East conflict 2. These pressures could persist if the geopolitical environment stays unstable.
Competitive position
UPS competes with many local, regional, national and international logistics providers, national postal services, motor carriers, express companies, freight forwarders, air couriers and e-commerce companies building their own logistics capabilities 1. Competition also comes from start-ups combining technology with flexible labour such as crowdsourcing 1.
Competitors may have different cost structures and pricing, and some of them are also UPS customers, which makes the commercial relationship more complex 1. If UPS does not respond effectively to competitive pressure, it could lose volume or profitability 1.
- FedExFDX
Direct competitor in express delivery and logistics, named among the parcel and courier competitors in the company's filings 1.
- National postal services (including USPS)
Competitors in parcel delivery but also partners, since UPS agreed with USPS to handle final-mile delivery for part of Ground Saver volume 1.
- Amazon (in-house logistics)AMZN
E-commerce company building its own logistics capabilities while also being UPS's largest customer 1.
- Crowdsourced delivery start-ups
Smaller companies combining technology with flexible labour and competing in fast delivery segments 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Is United Parcel Service Stock Outperforming the Dow?Yahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 02 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report13 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report11 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / UPS · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / UPS · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / UPS · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.