olivLaw · US equity research
BBB Foods Inc. TBBB
Retail-Grocery Stores · SIC 5411 · Vertical: Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411)
BBB Foods is the leading hard discount grocery retailer in Mexico, operating 3,346 stores at the end of 2025 with a model built on a limited assortment and private label products. In 2025 the company grew sales quickly but reported a net loss, weighed down by share-based compensation and expansion into new regions.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 30 Oct 2026, BBB Foods Inc. (TBBB) stock was 56.60 USD (−0.02% on the day), with beta 0.53, 52-week range 26.22–58.50 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 53.07 – 59.76
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 11.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 53.21 / 41.87
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.31 / 1.62
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.5% | −0.9% | +8.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +36.9% | +1.2% | +35.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +54.7% | +4.8% | +49.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +69.5% | +10.7% | +58.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +97.4% | +11.1% | +86.2 pp | −7.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +80.7% | unavailable | +14.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +64.6% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.1 bn | 32.6 bn | 44.1 bn | 57.4 bn | 78.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +41.1% | +35.3% | +30.3% | +36.1% |
| Net income | -816.7 m | -565.1 m | -306.2 m | 334.4 m | -2.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −949.1% |
| Diluted EPS | -68.06 | -47.09 | -25.51 | 2.40 | -24.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −1,128.8% |
| net % | -3.5% | -1.7% | -0.7% | 0.6% | -3.6% |
| Free cash flow | 834.1 m | 993.5 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn MXN
- Financial debt
- 2.2 bn MXN
- Net debt
- 821.7 m MXN
- Equity
- 4.1 bn MXN
- Total assets
- 30.5 bn MXN
- Debt / equity
- 0.55x
- Current ratio
- 0.62x
- ROE
- -69.6%
- ROA
- -10.7%
- FCF margin
- 1.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (MXN)
Margins
Income statement · MXN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.1 bn | 32.6 bn | 44.1 bn | 57.4 bn | 78.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 19.7 bn | 27.7 bn | 37.0 bn | 48.1 bn | 65.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 7.0 bn | 9.4 bn | 12.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 394.1 m | 520.3 m | 793.9 m | 1.3 bn | -675.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 436.1 m | 667.2 m | 905.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 830.1 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 908.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -724.9 m | -363.7 m | -100.9 m | 717.5 m | -2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 91.8 m | 201.4 m | 205.2 m | 383.1 m | 443.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -816.7 m | -565.1 m | -306.2 m | 334.4 m | -2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -68.06 | -47.09 | -25.51 | 2.40 | -24.69 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · MXN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.0 bn | 985.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 3.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 8.6 bn | 9.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 6.5 bn | 9.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 7.8 m | 8.2 m | 6.8 m | 6.8 m | 27.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 11.8 bn | 15.0 bn | 22.8 bn | 30.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 491.2 m | 744.1 m | 926.8 m | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 540.7 m | 577.3 m | 106.7 m | 141.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 6.8 bn | 9.0 bn | 11.2 bn | 15.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 16.5 bn | 19.6 bn | 18.7 bn | 26.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -4.5 bn | -4.7 bn | -4.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · MXN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 532.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 834.1 m ≈ | 993.5 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -524.1 m | -1.1 bn | -1.8 bn | -4.9 bn | -3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -450.2 m | -1.0 bn | -1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -13.2% | 29 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.6% | 22 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 33.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 20 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet10/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BBB FOODS INC (TBBB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 78.2 bn MXN in 2025; YoY growth 36.1%; net margin -3.6%; ROE -69.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.9x.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 33.9%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -13.2%
- Net margin: -3.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.9x
- Interest coverage: -0.4x
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRKroger Co | 39.4 bn | 36.4 | 14.3% | 0.7% | +0.4% | +5% / +47% |
| ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc. | 6.2 bn | — | -2.3% | -0.1% | +3.5% | −26% / −40% |
| SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 4.6 bn | 9.5 | 33.5% | 5.4% | +14.1% | −37% / +18% |
| WMKWeis Markets, Inc | 1.8 bn | 18.5 | 7.4% | 2.0% | +3.5% | +17% / +14% |
| GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp. | 1.3 bn | — | -38.1% | -8.0% | unavailable | −5% / −53% |
| NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | 661.2 m | 13.9 | 21.6% | 3.5% | +7.2% | −11% / +128% |
| VLGEAVillage Super Market, Inc. | 179.8 m | 3.4 | 10.3% | 2.2% | +3.7% | +36% / +75% |
| HOSTHost Digital Inc. | 92.5 m | — | -207.8% | -13.3% | +12.7% | −86% / unavailable |
| MSSMaison Solutions Inc. | 17.7 m | — | — | — | +4.8% | −97% / −100% |
| TBBBBbb Foods Inc | — | — | -69.6% | -3.6% | +36.1% | +97% / unavailable |
| IMKTAIngles Markets, Incorporated | — | — | 6.3% | 1.9% | −5.4% | +22% / +5% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TBBB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 02 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (12 Aug 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026), 6-K (06 May 2026).
In brief
BBB Foods is the leading hard discount grocery retailer in Mexico, operating 3,346 stores at the end of 2025 with a model built on a limited assortment and private label products. In 2025 the company grew sales quickly but reported a net loss, weighed down by share-based compensation and expansion into new regions.
SWOT
Strengths
- A business model with a limited assortment, high turnover and a strong private label offer that supports low prices and customer loyalty 1.
- Rapid growth in store count and same store sales, with new stores opened faster than other Mexican grocers 1.
- Ability to self-fund expansion from cash flow, supported by negative working capital and low capital spend per store 1.
Weaknesses
- Very low gross margins, and the 2025 net loss shows sensitivity of results to administrative and staff costs 1.
- Reliance on leased store locations that must be renewed, with risk of higher rents or loss of sites 1.
- Exposure to exchange rates through dollar assets from IPO proceeds, which generated a financial loss in 2025 1.
Opportunities
- Estimated room for a large number of additional stores in Mexico, which could support long-term growth 1.
- Expansion into neighboring states and higher density in existing areas, where logistics costs could be spread more widely 1.
- A rising share of private label, which the company describes as offering better value and could improve margins 1.
Threats
Risks
- Customer spendinghigh
Customers with fixed or low incomes could reduce spending if inflation or living costs rise, affecting sales and profitability 1.
- Success of expansionhigh
Replicating the model in new regions involves uncertainty about store and logistics profitability, and the company cannot assure similar opening rates 1.
- Lease costsmedium
Renewing leases on unfavorable terms could raise costs and reduce store profitability 1.
- Share-based compensationmedium
Recognition of RSU plan expenses contributed to the 2025 operating loss and could continue to weigh on results 1.
- Currency and financinglow
Dollar-denominated assets and high lease-related financial costs could generate exchange losses and affect net income 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If expansion continues at a similar pace and new stores reach the expected profitability, revenue growth could outpace current margin pressure 1.
- Private label strength and the ability to self-fund growth from cash flow could support low prices and customer loyalty over time 1.
- Solid same store sales growth suggests durable demand in the existing network, which could support profitability 1.
What would break the thesis
- Very low gross margins and rising administrative costs could keep the company loss-making if efficiency does not improve 1.
- Intense competition and the expansion of government stores could limit the ability to raise prices and could erode margins 1.
- Exposure to rent costs, exchange rates and lower-income customers could amplify risks if the economy weakens 1.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and administrative expenses relative to total revenuenext 10-K
- Pace of new store openings and profitability of new regions2027
- Same store sales development under inflationary conditionsQ1 2027
- Impact of RSU plan expenses on operating resultsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 02 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (12 Aug 2026), 6-K (01 Jun 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026), 6-K (06 May 2026).
The business
The company was founded in 2004 by founder Anthony Hatoum, who started a hard discounter in Mexico based on the Turkish BIM model, opening its first store in February 2005. The model relies on a range of about 850 to 900 SKUs, low prices supported by high purchase volumes and private label products, which included 113 brands and over 525 SKUs as of 31 December 2025 1. Operations are concentrated in central Mexico, and the company has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since February 2024 1.
The company states it has estimated white space for at least 11,000 additional stores in Mexico, which could support growth if expansion into new regions keeps its profitability 1. Management is decentralized by region, each with its own regional director and a distribution center serving up to 200 stores 1.
Segments
Market context
The Mexican grocery retail market is highly fragmented, with competition from hard discounters, supermarkets, neighborhood shops and informal vendors 1. The company has grown faster than the market by opening stores, and expansion into new states could change competitive dynamics if regional operators compete more aggressively 1.
Same store sales increased 18.3% in 2025, indicating solid demand across the existing network, although margins are narrow and sensitive to costs 1.
Trends
- Pressure on purchasing powermixed
Many customers have fixed or low incomes, and rising energy, fuel or housing costs could reduce spending and shift demand toward cheaper products 1.
- Competition from government storesheadwind
The expansion of Tiendas del Bienestar, which sell staples at low prices, could intensify competition in the low-price segment 1.
- Regional expansiontailwind
Growing density in existing regions and entry into neighboring states can support store growth, but requires replicating the logistics model 1.
- Staff and rent costsheadwind
Wage inflation and rent increases at lease renewal could raise operating costs without a matching rise in revenue 1.
Competitive position
The company faces hard discount rivals such as Bodega Aurrera Express, Tiendas Neto and Tiendas BARA, discount formats of large retailers such as Bodega Aurrera, Walmart-Express and Súper Ché, as well as informal vendors 1. Some competitors have greater financial, distribution and marketing resources and may secure better supplier terms 1.
Competitive risk could increase if rivals expand delivery services or digital technologies, or enter the market more strongly through alliances or business combinations, altering market dynamics 1.
- Bodega Aurrera Express
Hard discount format named by the company among its main competitors in Mexico.
- Tiendas Neto
Hard discounter named as a direct competitor in Mexico.
- Tiendas BARA
Hard discounter named in the list of principal competitors.
- Walmart-Express
Discount format of a large retailer, cited as a rival in the low-price segment.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Apr 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)02 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / BBB Foods Inc. · 02 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.