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olivLaw · US equity research

Village Super Market, Inc. VLGEA

Retail-Grocery Stores · SIC 5411 · Vertical: Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411)

42.77USD+0.40% · 1 dayClose 30 Oct 2026

Village Super Market operates a chain of supermarkets in New Jersey, New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania under the ShopRite and Fairway banners, and is the second largest member of the Wakefern cooperative. In fiscal 2026 sales reached 2405.707 million USD, with same store sales growth but a lower gross margin amid intense grocery competition.

At the close of 30 Oct 2026, Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA) stock was 42.77 USD (+0.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 592.2 m USD, P/E 11.3, dividend yield 2.25%, beta 0.13, 52-week range 31.37–47.17 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 609.6 m USD (+1.6% YoY), net income of 13.6 m USD (−12.3% YoY).

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
592.2 m USD
shares as of 04 Oct 2013
P/E (TTM)
11.3
market cap ÷ net income
E/P (TTM)
8.86%
Dividend yield
2.25%
Beta (2y)
0.13
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
31.3747.17

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
42.37 – 45.58
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.12 · band width 7.3%
SMA 50 / 200
44.14 / 42.26
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.28 / -0.10
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−5.8%−0.9%−4.9 pp—
3 months−2.7%+1.2%−3.9 pp—
6 months−2.8%+4.8%−7.7 pp—
Year to date+20.8%+10.7%+10.1 pp—
1 year+35.8%+11.1%+24.7 pp−7.8%
3 years+74.8%+80.7%−6.0 pp+9.6%
5 years+92.1%+64.6%+27.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.3%
28 May 2026 → 02 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−22.3%
13 Apr 2022 → 29 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.9%
S&P 500 +10.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 25 Jul 2026

Revenue
609.6 m USD
+1.6% YoY
Net income
13.6 m USD
−12.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2.2% / 2.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue557.7 m599.7 m563.7 m599.7 m582.6 m641.0 m572.6 m609.6 m
Cost of revenue395.8 m429.6 m401.5 m430.8 m417.6 m461.1 m411.8 m437.5 m
Gross profit161.9 m170.0 m162.2 m168.9 m165.0 m179.9 m160.8 m172.1 m
Operating income16.0 m22.2 m13.7 m20.2 m15.1 m23.5 m8.4 m17.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation9.0 m8.6 m8.8 m9.1 m8.9 m8.5 m8.6 m9.4 m
Interest expense990.0 k982.0 k899.0 k880.0 k862.0 k847.0 k833.0 k840.0 k
Pre-tax income18.6 m24.5 m16.1 m22.6 m17.5 m25.8 m10.7 m—
Income tax5.8 m7.6 m4.9 m7.1 m5.5 m7.9 m1.7 m6.0 m
Net income12.8 m16.9 m11.2 m15.5 m12.0 m17.9 m9.0 m13.6 m
Operating cash flow20.2 m40.8 m ≈10.6 m ≈21.7 m19.7 m59.1 m ≈-245.0 k ≈30.3 m
Capex11.7 m15.8 m ≈21.2 m ≈10.1 m8.9 m8.8 m ≈16.0 m ≈20.0 m
Dividends paid3.3 m3.3 m ≈3.3 m ≈3.3 m3.3 m3.3 m ≈3.3 m ≈3.3 m
Share repurchases00 ≈0 ≈0———0

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue1.6 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn
Revenue YoY+2.0%+9.8%+12.5%+1.5%+5.1%+3.2%+3.8%+3.7%
Net income25.5 m24.9 m20.0 m26.8 m49.7 m50.5 m56.4 m52.5 m
Net income YoY+1.8%−2.3%−19.8%+34.2%+85.3%+1.5%+11.7%−7.0%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %1.6%1.4%1.0%1.3%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.2%
Free cash flow27.8 m29.5 m27.5 m36.4 m58.1 m17.8 m34.5 m55.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 25 Jul 2026

Cash
130.8 m USD
Financial debt
62.9 m USD
Net debt
-67.9 m USD
Equity
527.2 m USD
Total assets
1.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.12x
Current ratio
1.14x
ROE
10.3%
ROA
5.1%
FCF margin
2.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.3 bn
2026
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
642.0 m
2025
663.0 m
2026
677.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Operating income
2024
62.1 m
2025
72.1 m
2026
64.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
35.5 m
2025
36.7 m
2026
36.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
97.5 m ≈
2025
108.7 m ≈
2026
100.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
4.1 m
2025
3.8 m
2026
3.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
72.7 m
2025
81.8 m
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Oct 2025verified

Income tax
2024
22.3 m
2025
25.4 m
2026
21.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Net income
2024
50.5 m
2025
56.4 m
2026
52.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
117.3 m
2025
110.7 m
2026
130.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Inventories
2024
46.7 m
2025
51.4 m
2026
52.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Current assets
2024
199.7 m
2025
205.1 m
2026
220.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
303.2 m
2025
322.9 m
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Dec 2025verified

Goodwill
2024
24.2 m
2025
24.2 m
2026
24.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Total assets
2024
981.7 m
2025
1.0 bn
2026
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
28.4 m
2025
33.2 m
2026
40.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
9.5 m
2025
9.4 m
2026
8.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
62.8 m
2025
48.6 m
2026
54.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
174.2 m
2025
181.3 m
2026
193.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
—
2025
511.7 m
2026
507.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Equity
2024
447.6 m †
2025
492.0 m †
2026
527.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
80.9 m
2025
93.3 m
2026
108.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Capex
2024
63.1 m
2025
58.8 m
2026
53.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
17.8 m ≈
2025
34.5 m ≈
2026
55.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-78.0 m
2025
-75.6 m
2026
-61.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-26.5 m
2025
-24.3 m
2026
-26.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
13.3 m
2025
13.3 m
2026
13.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
2.2 m
2025
0
2026
8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Oct 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-10.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
21.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
59.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
28.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
4.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
ROA
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
ROIC
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
ROCE
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
24.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-67.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
19.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
108.8 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
53.7 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
55.1 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
105.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
107.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
11 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
8 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
592.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
524.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
11.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
8.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
P/FCF
10.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
FCF yield
9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 79 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

42.77 USD

30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 592.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
592.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
ROE
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 25 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 25 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 25 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Oct 2013
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 08 Oct 2026
verified 1962derived 235

Score by group

  • Quality81
  • Growth30
  • Valuation91
  • Balance sheet86
  • Returns71

Estimated value range

Low
48.67
USD per share
Mid
61.38
USD per share
High
86.89
USD per share
Price: 42.77 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 43.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 30.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 39.88 – 93.78 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)61.55 – 93.78 (Mid 73.87)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 57.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -20.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA39.88 – 65.89 (Mid 54.01)
    3 companies used · median multiple 6.7x · quartiles 4.8x – 8.4x
    ACI, KR, NGVC
  • Peers: P/E48.67 – 86.89 (Mid 61.38)
    4 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 12.8x – 22.9x
    KR, NGVC, SFM, WMK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 79/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality10.4%71 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality2.2%78 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality105.0%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.6%30 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.7x100 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet19.0x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x28 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.3x85 (on a fixed band)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.2x89 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation9.3%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.6%52 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns24.2%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial30/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-25.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin 2.2%; ROE 10.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.7x.

The estimated value range is 48.67–86.89 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 61.38 USD, the price of 42.77 USD leaves a potential of 43.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 30.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 79/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 10.4%
  • Net margin: 2.2%
  • FCF conversion: 105.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.7x
  • Interest coverage: 19.0x
  • P/E (TTM): 11.3x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.2x
  • FCF yield: 9.3%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 24.2%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.6%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.3x
vertical median 16.2x
below median (−30.3%)
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
vertical median 6.7x
below median (−22.9%)
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−32.2%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−61.0%)
ROE
10.3%
vertical median 6.3%
above median (+62.3%)
Net margin
2.2%
vertical median 0.7%
above median (+200.4%)
EBIT margin
2.7%
vertical median 1.4%
above median (+91.7%)
Revenue YoY
3.7%
vertical median 4.8%
below median (−23.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.7x
vertical median 0.3x
below median (−365.0%)
Dividend yield
2.3%
vertical median 1.8%
above median (+23.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KRKroger Co39.4 bn36.414.3%0.7%+0.4%+5% / +47%
ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.6.2 bn—-2.3%-0.1%+3.5%−26% / −40%
SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.4.6 bn9.533.5%5.4%+14.1%−37% / +18%
WMKWeis Markets, Inc1.8 bn18.57.4%2.0%+3.5%+17% / +14%
GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.1.3 bn—-38.1%-8.0%unavailable−5% / −53%
NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.661.2 m13.921.6%3.5%+7.2%−11% / +128%
VLGEAVillage Super Market, Inc.179.8 m3.410.3%2.2%+3.7%+36% / +75%
HOSTHost Digital Inc.92.5 m—-207.8%-13.3%+12.7%−86% / unavailable
MSSMaison Solutions Inc.17.7 m———+4.8%−97% / −100%
TBBBBbb Foods Inc——-69.6%-3.6%+36.1%+107% / unavailable
IMKTAIngles Markets, Incorporated——6.3%1.9%−5.4%+22% / +5%

1- and 3-year price returns: for VLGEA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
25.04
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
44.29
Total return 4% · Per year 4%
66.74
Total return 56% · Per year 56%
3 years
23.84
Total return -44% · Per year -18%
47.49
Total return 11% · Per year 4%
78.64
Total return 84% · Per year 23%
5 years
22.70
Total return -47% · Per year -12%
50.92
Total return 19% · Per year 4%
92.66
Total return 117% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.87
  • Net margin± 8.31
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.88
  • Annual dilution± 0.70

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Village Super Market operates a chain of supermarkets in New Jersey, New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania under the ShopRite and Fairway banners, and is the second largest member of the Wakefern cooperative. In fiscal 2026 sales reached 2405.707 million USD, with same store sales growth but a lower gross margin amid intense grocery competition.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Membership in Wakefern provides scale economies in purchasing, distribution and technology that help the company compete with larger chains 1.
  • The ShopRite and Fairway banners have a solid position in the areas where they operate, and large modern stores support the product offer 1.
  • Growth in same store sales and digital sales shows that the customer base responds well to the company's offers 1.

Weaknesses

  • Geographic concentration makes the business dependent on economic conditions and weather events in a narrow region 1.
  • Dependence on Wakefern for nearly all merchandise and many services creates vulnerability, especially amid the ongoing litigation 1.
  • Thin margins and the lower gross margin in fiscal 2026 limit the company's ability to absorb cost shocks 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding digital commerce and delivery services could attract new customers and increase purchase frequency 1.
  • Replacing older stores with larger modern units could improve long-term sales if the projects prove profitable 1.
  • Loyalty programs could be expanded to strengthen customer relationships and the effectiveness of marketing campaigns 1.

Threats

  • Intense competition from chains, discount stores and online platforms could reduce traffic and force price concessions 1.
  • Inflation, labor costs and organized retail theft could erode the company's margins 1.
  • Extreme weather and climate-related risks in the operating region could interrupt store operations and the supply chain 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on Wakefern and ongoing litigationhigh

    The company buys nearly all merchandise from Wakefern, and a dispute with this partner could materially affect its competitive position and financial results 1.

  • Geographic concentrationhigh

    Operations are concentrated in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, so a local economic downturn or major weather event could have a disproportionate impact 1.

  • Labor costs and pensionsmedium

    Most employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements and some multi-employer pension plans are underfunded, which could increase contributions and withdrawal liability 1.

  • Competitive pressuremedium

    Competitors with greater resources and rapid digital innovation could reduce store traffic and force the company into additional promotions or investment 1.

  • Shrink and inventory losseslow

    Organized retail theft and inventory losses could raise security costs and may not be reduced effectively, affecting margins 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Growth in same store sales and digital sales points to sustained demand in existing stores, and remodel investments could add further growth if the trend continues 1.
  • Membership in Wakefern gives a scale advantage that is hard for a small operator to match, which could protect the company's position over time 1.
  • If cost pressures ease, the company could recover part of the margin lost in fiscal 2026 1.

What would break the thesis

  • The lower gross margin and higher operating expenses show profitability under pressure, and net income fell compared with the prior year 1.
  • Dependence on Wakefern and the ongoing litigation could lead to costs or lost benefits if the relationship deteriorates 1.
  • Intense competition and digital innovation could reduce store traffic and force price cuts that erode margins 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in gross margin and operating expenses as a percentage of salesQ1 2027
  • Same store sales and digital sales growth in newly opened stores2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company operates 34 supermarkets under the ShopRite and Fairway banners and three Gourmet Garage specialty markets in New York City 1. As the second largest member of Wakefern Food Corporation, Village benefits from scale economies in purchasing, distribution, technology and marketing 1. It also offers online ordering for pickup or home delivery and a centralized commissary for perishable products.

Stores average 58,000 square feet, allowing a wide assortment of national, local and own-brand products, including liquor and in-store pharmacies 1. The expansion program includes remodels and larger replacement stores, such as the East Orange, NJ store opened in May 2026 1.

Profitability is thin, as is typical for the industry: in fiscal 2026 operating margin was 2.68% of sales 1. The company relies almost entirely on Wakefern for merchandise and support services, so that relationship is central to its business 1.

Segments

ShopRite and Fairway supermarkets

Most of the 34 stores operate under the ShopRite and Fairway banners, concentrated in New Jersey, New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania 1. Fairway emphasizes fresh, natural and gourmet products, while ShopRite focuses on competitive prices and a broad assortment 1.

Gourmet Garage

The three specialty markets in New York City offer organic produce, soups, prepared meals, meat, seafood and fine cheeses, with their own online delivery 1. This segment is a small part of total operations 1.

Online commerce and digital orders

Online ordering for pickup or home delivery is available in all ShopRite and Fairway stores through websites, apps and third-party providers 1. Growth in digital sales contributed to same store sales growth in fiscal 2026 1.

Market context

Grocery retail in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area is highly competitive and characterized by narrow margins, with rivals including supermarket chains, warehouse clubs, supercenters, pharmacies, discount stores and online platforms 1. The company operates almost exclusively in this region, making it sensitive to local economic conditions 1.

Competition is based on price, assortment, convenience and digital services, and the emergence of AI-powered shopping tools could further change how customers choose where to buy 1. Inflationary pressures and labor costs remain important factors for sector margins 1.

Trends

  • Growth of digital commercetailwind

    Digital sales grew and contributed to same store sales growth, and the company is investing in apps and delivery, which could support traffic if these channels stay competitive 12.

  • Pressure on marginsheadwind

    Gross margin declined in fiscal 2026 due to lower patronage dividends from Wakefern and higher promotional spending, while operating costs rose 1.

  • Inflation and operating costsheadwind

    Higher wages, utilities, insurance and shrink-control costs could reduce customer purchasing power and profitability, especially if they cannot be passed on through prices 1.

  • Remodels and larger storesmixed

    The replacement of stores with larger formats, such as Watchung and East Orange, could drive growth if new locations attract customers, although cannibalization effects may also occur 1.

Competitive position

Village competes with national, regional and local supermarket chains, warehouse clubs, supercenters, discount stores, pharmacies, online platforms and meal delivery services 1. Many of these competitors have greater financial resources and lower acquisition costs 1.

The company's advantage comes from its Wakefern membership, which provides purchasing power, technology and marketing support, along with the ShopRite Price Plus and Fairway Insider loyalty programs 1. It nonetheless remains exposed to aggressive competition and non-traditional entrants 1.

  • Wakefern Food Corporation

    Retailer-owned cooperative of which Village is a member and from which it buys nearly all merchandise; also a key supplier and a party to current litigation 1.

  • National and regional supermarket chains

    Supermarket chains that compete directly in the same markets, explicitly named in the competitive risk disclosure 1.

  • Warehouse clubs and supercenters

    Retail formats often offering lower prices that attract shoppers from the same catchment areas 1.

  • Online retailers and delivery services

    E-commerce platforms and meal delivery services competing on convenience and digital offerings 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-07-25 · SEC / Village Super Market, Inc. · 08 Oct 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Village Super Market, Inc. · 10 Oct 2023

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw