olivLaw · US equity research
Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. TKLF
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC · SIC 5990 · Vertical: Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990)
Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. is a retailer and wholesaler of Japanese beauty and health products that operates its own stores in several countries and sells through franchise stores and wholesale customers. In fiscal 2026 revenue rose 77.6% to 373.2 million USD, mainly driven by a newly launched pre-owned luxury watch business, while net income fell sharply.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. (TKLF) stock was 1.37 USD (−6.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 58.0 m USD, P/E 68.5 on diluted EPS of 0.02 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.92%, beta 0.67, 52-week range 1.37–3.48 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.34 – 1.61
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.12 · band width 18.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.60 / 2.15
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.05 / -0.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.7% | −1.1% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.2% | −0.5% | −29.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −34.8% | +4.4% | −39.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −55.4% | +12.3% | −67.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −58.1% | +13.5% | −71.6 pp | −17.0% |
| 3 years | −86.6% | +76.4% | −163.0 pp | −27.8% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 12.4, median 61.7, max 106.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 139.6 m | 224.8 m | 234.8 m | 169.7 m | 195.7 m | 210.1 m | 373.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +61.0% | +4.4% | −27.7% | +15.3% | +7.4% | +77.6% |
| Net income | 4.9 m | 5.0 m | 3.9 m | -8.0 m | 7.5 m | 6.6 m | 716.7 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +1.3% | −20.8% | −305.1% | unavailable | −11.2% | −89.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.12 | -0.22 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | 0.0% | −33.3% | −283.3% | unavailable | −20.0% | −87.5% |
| net % | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | -4.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | -11.1 m | -6.2 m | -10.0 m | -26.7 m | 982.6 k | -1.6 m | -10.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 2.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 61.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 59.7 m USD
- Equity
- 41.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 233.6 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.50x
- Current ratio
- 1.30x
- ROE
- 1.7%
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- -2.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 224.8 m | 234.8 m | 169.7 m | 195.7 m | 210.1 m | 373.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 7.3 k | 328.2 k | 641.9 k | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2023verified |
| SG&A | 32.5 m | 36.4 m | 28.6 m | 17.6 m | 19.2 m | 24.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | -72.7 k | 7.3 m | 823.8 k | 5.8 m | 4.7 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 626.2 k | 1.2 m | 1.2 m | 1.2 m | 952.1 k | 1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 553.5 k ≈ | 8.5 m ≈ | 2.1 m ≈ | 7.0 m ≈ | 5.7 m ≈ | 4.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.3 m | 2.8 m | 2.4 m | 1.6 m | 1.7 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 8.3 m | 6.2 m | -7.3 m | 7.9 m | 4.8 m | 3.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.3 m | 2.2 m | 714.4 k | 456.8 k | -1.9 m | 3.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.0 m | 3.9 m | -8.0 m | 7.5 m | 6.6 m | 716.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 0.12 | -0.22 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.02 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | — | — | — | 37.3 m | 42.2 m | 42.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | — | — | 0.01 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | — | — | 2.5 m | 4.8 m | 2.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | — | 105.4 m | 107.3 m | 186.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | 4.4 m | 4.4 m | 14.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | — | — | 122.2 m | 137.2 m | 219.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | — | 9.0 m | 10.8 m | 4.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | — | — | 142.0 m | 157.8 m | 233.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 53.2 m | 57.9 m | 50.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 5.6 m | 6.5 m | 11.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | — | — | 93.4 m | 101.5 m | 168.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | — | 106.0 m | 114.8 m | 192.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | — | — | — | 36.0 m | 43.0 m | 41.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | — | 42.2 m | 42.3 m | 42.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -3.2 m | -7.0 m | -25.7 m | 1.9 m | -598.7 k | -10.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.9 m | 3.0 m | 935.0 k | 929.3 k | 992.1 k | 314.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -6.2 m ≈ | -10.0 m ≈ | -26.7 m ≈ | 982.6 k ≈ | -1.6 m ≈ | -10.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.0 m | -3.1 m | -743.3 k | 2.7 m | -964.2 k | 6.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 13.9 m | 13.8 m | 12.7 m | -1.8 m | 4.0 m | 4.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | — | — | 531.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 25 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 58.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation0
- Returns13
- Quality48
- Balance sheet9
- Growth100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.11 – 0.54 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
- Peers: P/E0.11 – 0.54 (Mid 0.20)7 companies used · median multiple 10.0x · quartiles 5.5x – 27.1xBBWI, JD, RENT, SBH, SGU, ULTA, WOOF
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.16 – 0.22 (Mid 0.19)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 25/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 2.7% | 70 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.2% | 61 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -1,480.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 13.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 2 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 68.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 26.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -18.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.9% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet9/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial13/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. (TKLF). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 373.2 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 77.6%; net margin 0.2%; ROE 1.7%; net debt/EBITDA 13.7x.
The estimated value range is 0.14–0.38 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.19 USD, the price of 1.37 USD leaves a potential of -85.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -602.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 25/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 2.7%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.0%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -1,480.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 13.7x
- Interest coverage: 1.6x
- P/E (TTM): 68.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 26.9x
- FCF yield: -18.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | 28.2 bn | 24.1 | 46.1% | 9.3% | +9.7% | +23% / +55% |
| BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc. | 4.7 bn | 6.1 | — | 10.8% | −0.2% | +35% / −28% |
| SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 10.0 | 23.5% | 5.2% | −0.4% | +21% / +99% |
| YJYunji Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -13.5% | -42.0% | −20.8% | −27% / −62% |
| TITNTitan Machinery Inc. | 530.0 m | — | -9.7% | -2.5% | −10.2% | +22% / −1% |
| SGUStar Group, L.P. | 429.8 m | 4.9 | — | 4.6% | +1.0% | +9% / +2% |
| NAASNaaS Technology Inc. | 223.8 m | — | — | -454.5% | −38.9% | −44% / −100% |
| NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc. | 207.4 m | — | -3.7% | -0.3% | +16.9% | −87% / −61% |
| RENTRent the Runway, Inc. | 83.1 m | 0.2 | — | 11.8% | +7.7% | −49% / −77% |
| BARKBark, Inc. | 75.2 m | — | -36.7% | -8.4% | −18.5% | −42% / −49% |
| TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. | 58.0 m | 68.5 | 1.7% | 0.2% | +77.6% | −58% / −87% |
| BQBoqii Holding Limited | 10.5 m | — | -2.8% | -1.2% | −5.7% | −79% / −98% |
| INHDInno Holdings Inc. | 8.7 m | — | -7.2% | -72.7% | +221.4% | −97% / unavailable |
| RCTRedCloud Holdings plc | 2.3 m | — | — | -95.3% | +4.3% | −98% / unavailable |
| LESLLeslie’s, Inc. | 955.3 k | — | — | -21.2% | −6.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HITIHigh Tide Inc. | — | — | -44.0% | -8.5% | +13.7% | +8% / +85% |
| JDJD.com, Inc. | — | 30.1 | 10.2% | 1.8% | +17.9% | −7% / +1% |
| FLWS1 800 Flowers Com Inc | — | — | -65.4% | -9.0% | −10.8% | −17% / −68% |
| WOOFPetco Health & Wellness Company, Inc. | — | 31.1 | 2.6% | 0.5% | −2.5% | −2% / +4% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TKLF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.76 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 1.33 Total return -2% · Per year -2% | 2.00 Total return 47% · Per year 47% |
| 3 years | 0.90 Total return -32% · Per year -12% | 1.76 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 2.88 Total return 114% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 1.07 Total return -18% · Per year -4% | 2.33 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 4.15 Total return 211% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 0.44
- Net margin± 0.31
- Annual revenue growth± 0.23
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026).
In brief
Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. is a retailer and wholesaler of Japanese beauty and health products that operates its own stores in several countries and sells through franchise stores and wholesale customers. In fiscal 2026 revenue rose 77.6% 1 to 373.2 million USD 1, mainly driven by a newly launched pre-owned luxury watch business, while net income fell sharply.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Reliance on short-term financinghigh
If bank loans are not renewed, liquidity could be affected and operations might have to be curtailed 1.
- Geographic concentrationhigh
The large weight of Hong Kong in revenue makes the company vulnerable to changes in that market 1.
- Product liabilitymedium
Products sold could cause allergic reactions or other illness, and the company carries no product liability insurance 1.
- Expansion riskmedium
New stores could be delayed or prove unprofitable, and rent costs could rise 1.
- Competitionmedium
Rivals with greater resources could reduce the company's market share 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the luxury watch and franchise segments keep growing, revenue could stay above current levels and the wholesale network could expand quickly 1.
- Relationships with established Japanese manufacturers could offer a long-term sourcing advantage 1.
- The planned expansion in the U.S., Canada and Australia could diversify revenue and reduce reliance on a single market 1.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and net incomenext 10-K
- Renewal of short-term bank borrowingsQ1 2027
- Share of revenue from Hong Kongnext 10-K
- Progress on the 20 planned new directly-operated stores2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (14 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026).
The business
Headquartered in Tokyo, the company sells Japanese beauty, health, sundry, electronic, collectible card and luxury products through three channels: directly-operated stores, online stores, and franchise stores with wholesale customers 1. The franchise and wholesale channel accounts for the vast majority of revenue, at 92.9% in fiscal 2026 1. The company has been listed on Nasdaq under the symbol TKLF since January 2022 1.
Its geographic mix is concentrated: sales to the Hong Kong market represented 63.2% of revenue in fiscal 2026 1. The company plans to expand in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Thailand and Taiwan, and to add franchise stores in Japan, Southeast Asia, Macau and Europe 1.
Segments
Market context
Beauty, health, sundry, electronic and collectible card products are sold in fragmented and highly competitive markets in Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, the U.K. and the U.S. 1. The company also operates in the luxury watch segment, where it aims to strengthen its position 1.
The market for Japanese retail products depends on relationships with major suppliers such as Shiseido, Kao and Kosé 1, and purchase prices can vary by source, since cosmetics companies generally sell 5% to 8% below distributors 1.
Trends
- International expansiontailwind
The plan to open new stores in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Asia could reduce the weight of Hong Kong in revenue if the expansion succeeds 1.
- Pre-owned luxury watchesmixed
The launch of this segment drove rapid revenue growth, but such momentum could be difficult to sustain if demand shifts 1.
- Margin pressureheadwind
A falling gross margin and rising operating expenses could limit profitability if the trend continues 1.
- Financing needsheadwind
Reliance on short-term bank loans could become a problem if refinancing occurs on more expensive terms 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from online and offline retailers, and as the company expands its sundry, luxury, electronic and collectible offerings it also faces pharmacies, discount stores, convenience stores and supermarkets 1. Many competitors have longer operating histories, stronger brands or greater financial resources 1.
A strength is the network of more than 270 suppliers and wholesale customers and direct relationships with well-known Japanese manufacturers 1. These relationships could offer an edge over smaller rivals, but they do not remove competitive pressure 1.
- Pharmacy and drugstore operators
Direct competitors for health and beauty products, cited in the filing as part of growing competitive pressure 1.
- Discount stores and supermarkets
Competitors for household goods and food as the company widens its range 1.
- Convenience stores
Competitors selling similar consumer products, named in the filing 1.
- Online retailers
Competitors in the digital channel, where new technologies could intensify pressure 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)10 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Tokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. · 10 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.