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olivLaw · US equity research

Ternium S.A. TX

Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · SIC 3312 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)

48.64USD−5.37% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Ternium is a steel producer in the Americas that supplies advanced steel products to manufacturing and construction customers. Net sales reached 15,609 million USD in fiscal 2025, amid pressure on prices and demand, which makes the company a relevant case for the regional steel cycle.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ternium S.A. (TX) stock was 48.64 USD (−5.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 97.5 bn USD, P/E 221.1 on diluted EPS of 0.22 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.58%, beta 0.80, 52-week range 35.26–59.69 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
97.5 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
221.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.22 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
0.45%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.58%
DPS 12m 0.28
Beta (2y)
0.80
Volatility (1y) 32%
52-week range
35.2659.69

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
27.2
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
49.45 – 61.46
below the lower band · %B -0.07 · band width 21.7%
SMA 50 / 200
56.05 / 47.78
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.51 / -0.72
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−14.6%−1.1%−13.5 pp—
3 months−6.3%−0.5%−5.8 pp—
6 months+5.2%+4.4%+0.8 pp—
Year to date+27.4%+12.3%+15.0 pp—
1 year+35.4%+13.5%+21.8 pp+7.2%
3 years+30.8%+76.4%−45.6 pp+20.7%
5 years+25.8%+63.7%−37.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.9%
02 Jun 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−50.4%
19 Apr 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+4.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 6-quarter history (min 22.3, median 74.3, max 173.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue11.5 bn10.2 bn8.7 bn16.1 bn16.4 bn17.6 bn17.6 bn15.6 bn
Revenue YoY+18.1%−11.0%−14.3%+84.2%+2.0%+7.3%+0.2%−11.6%
Net income1.5 bn564.3 m778.5 m3.8 bn1.8 bn676.0 m-53.7 m425.2 m
Net income YoY+70.0%−62.5%+38.0%+391.4%−53.8%−61.8%−107.9%unavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable0.290.401.950.900.34-0.030.22
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+37.9%+387.5%−53.8%−62.2%−108.8%unavailable
net %13.2%5.5%8.9%23.8%10.8%3.8%-0.3%2.7%
Free cash flow1.2 bn595.4 m1.2 bn2.2 bn2.2 bn1.3 bn85.0 m-345.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.5 bn USD
Financial debt
2.4 bn USD
Net debt
887.8 m USD
Equity
16.1 bn USD
Total assets
23.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.15x
Current ratio
2.49x
ROE
2.6%
ROA
1.8%
FCF margin
-2.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
17.6 bn
2024
17.6 bn
2025
15.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
14.1 bn
2024
14.8 bn
2025
13.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.6 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
19.0 m
2024
23.8 m
2025
21.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
705.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
125.4 m
2024
196.2 m
2025
214.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
728.0 m
2025
648.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
334.4 m
2024
554.2 m
2025
345.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
676.0 m
2024
-53.7 m
2025
425.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.34
2024
-0.03
2025
0.22

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.28
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
4.9 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
12.0 bn
2024
11.1 bn
2025
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
7.6 bn
2024
8.4 bn
2025
10.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
24.2 bn
2024
23.1 bn
2025
23.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
940.5 m
2024
670.1 m
2025
604.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
7.4 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
16.8 bn
2024
16.1 bn
2025
16.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.5 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.3 bn ≈
2024
85.0 m ≈
2025
-345.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.5 bn
2024
-1.4 bn
2025
-2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-766.4 m
2024
-488.4 m
2025
-500.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
569.3 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-44.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
-37.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
-37.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-11.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-506.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
887.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
3.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
2.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-345.5 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
-81.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
122 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
97.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
98.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
229.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
221.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
8.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
6.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
139.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
6.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 19 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

48.64 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 97.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
97.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
221.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
8.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
-11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 31 Mar 2026
verified 294derived 7

Score by group

  • Quality31
  • Growth0
  • Balance sheet57
  • Valuation0

Estimated value range

Low
3.65
USD per share
Mid
4.85
USD per share
High
5.93
USD per share
Price: 48.64 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -90.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -903.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.57 – 6.84 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E3.57 – 6.84 (Mid 5.41)
    7 companies used · median multiple 24.6x · quartiles 16.2x – 31.1x
    CMC, CRS, MT, MTUS, NUE, STLD, TS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.73 – 5.02 (Mid 4.28)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 19/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality3.5%43 (vs peers)15%
Net margin · Quality2.7%42 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality-81.2%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.7%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-37.5%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.3x28 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation221.1x0 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-0.4%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet57/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TERNIUM S.A. (TX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -11.6%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 3.6%.

The estimated value range is 3.65–5.93 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.85 USD, the price of 48.64 USD leaves a potential of -90.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -903.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 19/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.5x

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -81.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -37.5%
  • Interest coverage: 3.3x
  • P/E (TTM): 221.1x
  • FCF yield: -0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) (SIC 3312) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
221.1x
vertical median 24.6x
above median (+799.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.8x
P/S
6.2x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+733.4%)
P/B
8.2x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+460.4%)
ROE
3.6%
vertical median 7.1%
below median (−50.2%)
Net margin
2.7%
vertical median 5.3%
below median (−48.1%)
EBIT margin
4.5%
vertical median 3.9%
above median (+14.6%)
Revenue YoY
-11.6%
vertical median -1.3%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.3x
Dividend yield
0.6%
vertical median 0.8%
below median (−29.2%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TXTernium S.A.97.5 bn221.13.6%2.7%−11.6%+35% / +31%
NUENucor Corp60.8 bn35.68.2%5.4%+5.7%+68% / +58%
TSTenaris SA60.6 bn31.411.6%16.1%−4.3%+41% / +63%
MTArcelorMittal46.0 bn14.76.1%5.1%−1.7%+40% / +140%
STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.34.1 bn17.720.8%8.8%+3.6%+43% / +102%
CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation13.8 bn24.627.8%17.9%+8.6%−12% / +294%
CMCCommercial Metals Company6.8 bn10.614.8%7.0%+20.5%−2% / +37%
SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc.823.3 m—-8.5%-2.9%−5.1%+49% / +4%
MTUSMetallus Inc.650.2 m30.83.4%1.9%+6.9%−7% / −22%
TWITitan International, Inc.303.7 m—-22.9%-5.7%−0.9%−42% / −64%
ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.——-98.5%-47.2%−25.4%+17% / −41%
SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V.——19.2%31.2%−18.2%−8% / −15%
PKXPosco Holdings Inc.——2.1%1.5%−4.7%−8% / −48%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
26.00
Total return -47% · Per year -47%
46.12
Total return -5% · Per year -5%
69.66
Total return 43% · Per year 43%
3 years
22.21
Total return -54% · Per year -23%
44.60
Total return -8% · Per year -3%
74.39
Total return 53% · Per year 15%
5 years
18.96
Total return -61% · Per year -17%
43.12
Total return -11% · Per year -2%
79.44
Total return 63% · Per year 10%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.15
  • Net margin± 7.80
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.81
  • Annual dilution± 0.66

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Aug 2026), 6-K (04 Aug 2026), 6-K (08 Jul 2026).

In brief

Ternium is a steel producer in the Americas that supplies advanced steel products to manufacturing and construction customers. Net sales reached 15,609 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, amid pressure on prices and demand, which makes the company a relevant case for the regional steel cycle.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Ternium has an integrated industrial presence in several Latin American countries and a network of distribution centers and sales offices supporting differentiated services 1.
  • The Ternium Activo digital platform and unified IT system ease order management and integration with customers and suppliers 1.
  • Recent investments in advanced rolling technology have expanded capacity for high-strength steels used by the automotive industry 1.

Weaknesses

  • Financial results are strongly influenced by the steel price cycle, making profitability volatile from year to year 1.
  • The company depends on a limited number of key suppliers for raw materials and slabs, which can create supply vulnerabilities 1.
  • Exposure to Argentina brings risks linked to foreign exchange controls and volatility in local financial markets 1.

Opportunities

  • Import substitution in Mexico through the Pesquería downstream lines and new steel shop could expand share in high-end segments 1.
  • Consolidating control of Usiminas could bring operational synergies and a stronger presence in Brazil 1.
  • Decarbonization targets and renewable energy use could support access to customers requiring lower-emission steel 1.

Threats

  • Global overcapacity and unfair imports can pressure prices and market share in several countries 1.
  • US trade measures and uncertainty under the USMCA framework could affect access to the North American market 1.
  • Geopolitical conflicts could disrupt energy and raw materials, raising production costs 1.

Risks

  • Decline in steel priceshigh

    A prolonged fall in prices could reduce revenues and margins, with direct effects on operating results 1.

  • Overcapacity and unfair tradehigh

    Overcapacity in China and unfair trade practices could limit sales and market share 1.

  • Dependence on key suppliersmedium

    An interruption in supply of iron ore, slabs or energy could cause lost sales and extra costs 1.

  • Trade policy in the USMCA regionmedium

    Changes in trade arrangements between Mexico and the United States could materially affect results in Mexico 1.

  • Currency and financial volatility in Argentinamedium

    Foreign exchange restrictions and volatility in the Argentine market could reduce the value of financial investments and create accounting losses 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the Pesquería investments and new steel shop succeed in substituting imports, Ternium could win share in high-end segments in Mexico 1.
  • Greater control of Usiminas could bring synergies and a stronger position in Brazil, the second largest market in the region 1.
  • If demand from automotive and construction recovers, a large part of sales, volumes could benefit 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Operating profit fell sharply in fiscal 2025, and a price recovery may not materialize if overcapacity persists 1.
  • If regional trade tensions intensify, export access and demand stability in Mexico could be affected 1.
  • Dependence on a few key suppliers and volatile energy costs could compress margins, especially if prices cannot be passed on quickly to customers 1.

What to watch

  • Volume ramp-up at Pesquería and start-up of the new steel shopQ4 2026
  • Evolution of Mexican steel demand after the 2025 decline2026
  • Progress toward the 2030 emission intensity reduction targetnext sustainability report

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Aug 2026), 6-K (04 Aug 2026), 6-K (08 Jul 2026).

The business

The Pesquería industrial center in Mexico is a pillar of the differentiation strategy, with a 4.4 million ton hot-rolling mill started up in 2021 1. Downstream projects and a new electric-arc-furnace steel shop, expected to start by the fourth quarter of 2026, aim to substitute imports in the high-end segment 1. The ProPymes program and the Ternium Activo digital platform strengthen ties with customers and suppliers 1.

Ternium targets a 15% reduction in emission intensity per ton of hot-rolled steel by 2030 versus the 2023 baseline, and a 40% renewable share in purchased electricity for hot-rolling 1. The company reports under GRI, SASB and TCFD standards 1.

Segments

Steel

The Steel segment is the main source of revenue, selling flat and long products to the automotive, construction, appliance and machinery industries 1. Customers in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina account for most sales 1.

Mining

The Mining segment supports raw material supply, mainly iron ore, given dependence on key suppliers such as Vale 1. Its results are reported separately from steel 1.

Market context

Steel demand is sensitive to the economic cycle and activity in construction, automotive and machinery 1. In Mexico, apparent steel demand fell by about 10% in 2025 amid US trade uncertainty 1. Brazil, the second largest steel market in Latin America, and Argentina, the third, remain key markets for value-added products 1.

Steel prices are volatile and profitability depends on raw material costs and global overcapacity, especially from China 1. If prices fall further or volatility persists, revenues and margins could remain under pressure 1.

Trends

  • Trade measures and tariffsmixed

    Antidumping duties, safeguard measures and tariffs in the US and other countries reshape trade flows and can limit export access, while protecting domestic markets from unfair imports 1.

  • Global overcapacity, especially from Chinaheadwind

    Chinese steel exports have grown sharply, putting pressure on prices and margins in the Americas, including Brazil 1. If this pressure persists, it could limit returns for regional producers 1.

  • Import substitution in Mexicotailwind

    Foreign producers cover about half of Mexico's flat steel demand, and Ternium's Pesquería investments aim to win back that share 1. If the strategy succeeds, it could support volumes and product differentiation 1.

  • Geopolitical tensions and energy costsheadwind

    Tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel could disrupt energy markets and raise raw material costs, affecting supply chains 1. The company notes it cannot predict the duration of the conflict 1.

Competitive position

Ternium competes on price, quality and service with global and regional producers, some with greater financial resources or direct and indirect government support 1. Competition from alternative materials such as aluminum, concrete and plastic can also affect volumes 1. The trend toward industry consolidation could create larger competitors over time 1.

Ternium differentiates through high-quality products, logistics and inventory services, and integration across Mexico, Brazil and Argentina 1. The company argues its distribution network and digital platform allow faster responses to customer requests 1.

  • ArcelorMittal

    Global steel producer that integrated its Lázaro Cárdenas slab facility in Mexico and acquired a Brazilian slab maker, reducing slab availability in the market 1.

  • Vale

    Key iron ore supplier for Ternium's operations in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, with influence over raw material costs 1.

  • Chinese steel producers

    Overcapacity and large exports from China generate aggressive price offers in several markets where Ternium is present 1.

  • Producers of alternative materials

    Aluminum, wood, concrete, plastic and ceramics can replace steel in certain applications, affecting demand and prices 1.

News & filings

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.