olivLaw · European equity research
Air France-KLM AF.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR001400J770 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Air France-KLM is a European air transport group which, through its maintenance division AFI KLM E&M, also provides MRO services to third parties. The division grew its external revenue in 2024, and its 8.7 billion USD order book shows customer interest in next-generation aircraft.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Air France-KLM (AF.PA) stock was 11.28 EUR (+3.87% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.8 bn EUR, P/E 12.1 on diluted EPS of 0.93 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.03%, beta 1.39, 52-week range 8.56–13.98 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.96 – 11.10
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 10.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.15 / 11.20
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.5% | −1.5% | +2.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.5% | −5.3% | −7.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.4% | +4.7% | +4.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −2.5% | +6.0% | −8.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.4% | +8.2% | −13.6 pp | −9.5% |
| 3 years | −4.2% | +47.2% | −51.4 pp | −17.3% |
| 5 years | −52.1% | +41.8% | −93.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 8.7, median 33.2, max 39.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.3 bn | 26.4 bn | 30.0 bn | 31.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +84.4% | +13.7% | +4.8% |
| Net income | -3.3 bn | 728.0 m | 934.0 m | 317.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +28.3% | −66.1% |
| Diluted EPS | -5.95 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.93 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +32.3% | +126.8% |
| net % | -23.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 4.8 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 8.9 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Equity
- 799.0 m EUR
- Total assets
- 36.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 11.20x
- Current ratio
- 0.65x
- ROE
- 48.8%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.3 bn | 26.4 bn | 30.0 bn | 31.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | -2.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | -282.0 m | -390.0 m | 164.0 m | 84.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | -3.3 bn | 728.0 m | 934.0 m | 317.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -5.95 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.93 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 567.0 m | 723.0 m | 853.0 m | 959.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 10.7 bn | 11.0 bn | 11.8 bn | 10.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 222.0 m | 225.0 m | 224.0 m | 226.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 30.7 bn | 32.3 bn | 34.5 bn | 36.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.2 bn | 896.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 11.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.7 bn | 13.7 bn | 15.9 bn | 16.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 34.5 bn | 34.8 bn | 34.0 bn | 35.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | -3.8 bn | -2.5 bn | 500.0 m | 799.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 553.3 m | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 340.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -2.2 bn | -3.0 bn | -2.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -77.0 m | -2.8 bn | -989.0 m | -2.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.0 m | 0 | 90.0 m | 1.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 1.0 m | 0 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.8 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.17 – 27.84 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E10.17 – 27.84 (Mid 16.95)20 companies used · median multiple 18.2x · quartiles 10.9x – 29.9x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.04 – 0.05 (Mid 0.05)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 29.2% | 86 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.0% | 46 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.1x | 74 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial74/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AIR FRANCE - KLM (AF.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 31.5 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth 4.8%; net margin 1.0%.
The estimated value range is 10.17–27.84 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 16.95 EUR, the price of 11.28 EUR leaves a potential of 50.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 33.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 29.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.0%
- P/E (TTM): 12.1x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 107.9 bn | 32.8 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +25% / +30% |
| BN.PADanone | 43.5 bn | 21.6 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −12% / +15% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +55% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.6 bn | 34.0 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.0 bn | 113.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +10% / −38% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.9 bn | 18.6 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −2% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 3.8 bn | 12.1 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +7% / −3% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.7 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +34% / −28% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.6 bn | 30.8 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +30% / +4% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.1 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −23% / −34% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 806.8 m | 21.2 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −11% / +43% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 671.2 m | 17.9 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +4% / +46% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.8 m | 70.0 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 503.9 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −42% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 293.9 m | 14.8 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −34% / −17% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.9 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −34% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 184.8 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 148.2 m | 29.0 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +42% / +111% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 145.3 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −25% / −49% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 143.3 m | 6.6 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 133.9 m | 140.6 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +69% / +65% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 108.5 m | 16.0 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +3% / +5% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.9 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 62.3 m | 7.4 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −11% / −53% |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 60.6 m | 11.3 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −34% / −28% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AF.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 7.37 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 12.97 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 19.45 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 8.74 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 17.15 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 28.01 Total return 149% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 10.37 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 22.68 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 40.33 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 4.29
- Net margin± 3.00
- Annual revenue growth± 2.24
- Annual dilution± 0.25
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Air France-KLM is a European air transport group which, through its maintenance division AFI KLM E&M, also provides MRO services to third parties. The division grew its external revenue in 2024, and its 8.7 billion USD order book 1 shows customer interest in next-generation aircraft.
SWOT
Strengths
- The maintenance division has a solid position on next-generation aircraft and an extensive customer base.
- The group has a global industrial network and partnerships with manufacturers and other MRO providers.
- Technological expertise, including predictive maintenance solutions, supports competitiveness.
Weaknesses
- The maintenance division's operating margin is relatively low and has slipped slightly.
- Dependence on aircraft and engine makers for licences and parts can limit flexibility.
- Supply and labour costs have risen, weighing on profitability.
Opportunities
- Growth of the MRO market for next-generation aircraft could bring additional revenue.
- India and the Middle East could offer rapid growth through the existing regional presence.
- New partnerships, such as the planned Airbus A350 support joint venture, could extend the offer.
Threats
- Aircraft and engine makers could extend their own services and reduce competition.
- European climate legislation could significantly raise operating costs.
- Shortages of mechanics and supply chain disruption could slow activity.
Risks
- Competition in the MRO marketmedium
Aircraft and engine makers are aggressively developing after-sales services, which could reduce the maintenance division's revenue.
- Maintenance cost pressurehigh
Price increases imposed by manufacturers and wage inflation could reduce the division's margins.
- Climate regulationhigh
Costs linked to EU ETS and ReFuelEU could rise significantly, especially compared with competitors outside the EU.
- Flight safetymedium
A safety incident could damage the group's reputation and lead to legal or financial consequences.
- SAF availabilitymedium
If sustainable aviation fuel volumes are insufficient at competitive prices, the group could struggle to meet its climate goals.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If MRO market growth for next-generation aircraft is confirmed, the maintenance division could benefit from rising revenue and a stronger order book.
- Regional presence in India and the Middle East could let the division capture rising demand in these markets.
- Partnerships with manufacturers and other MRO providers could support broader offerings and lower costs.
What would break the thesis
- The maintenance division's operating margin is low and could stay under pressure from higher costs.
- If aircraft and engine makers extend their own services, competition could hit the group's external revenue.
- European climate regulation could create extra costs that cannot fully be passed on to customers.
What to watch
- Trend in external revenue and operating margin of the maintenance division2025
- Execution of aircraft orders and delivery of next-generation aircraft2025
- Impact of EU ETS and ReFuelEU costs on group results2025
- Progress of the Airbus A350 maintenance joint venturenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Air France-KLM group operates Air France, KLM and Transavia, along with regional and cargo subsidiaries. According to the 2024 universal registration document, the total fleet at 31 December 2024 was 574 aircraft 1. Besides passenger transport, the group develops its AFI KLM E&M maintenance division, which serves its own fleets and external clients.
The group intends to strengthen its position on next-generation aircraft, where it concentrates development effort. At 31 December 2024, 26.9% of the fleet consisted of next-generation aircraft 1, and firm orders stood at 191 aircraft 1.
Segments
Market context
The MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) market is growing and could keep expanding at about 3.6% a year over the next decade 1. Growth could be faster for next-generation aircraft, where the group concentrates its effort. India and the Middle East, with stronger growth prospects, are also targeted by the maintenance division.
The market is concentrated on aircraft and engine makers, which are developing their after-sales services and may restrict access through licences. Maintenance costs are rising because of labour shortages and supply chain pressure, and these trends could weigh on margins.
Trends
- Next-generation aircraftmixed
Delivery and maintenance of next-generation aircraft could open opportunities for the MRO division, but requires costly licences from manufacturers.
- Maintenance cost pressureheadwind
Shortages of mechanics and wage inflation could raise maintenance costs and reduce the division's margins.
- Demand growth in emerging regionstailwind
India and the Middle East have solid growth prospects, and the group's regional presence could help it capture part of this demand.
- European climate regulationheadwind
EU decarbonisation rules could significantly raise operating costs for the group's airlines, while other jurisdictions have weaker regulation.
Competitive position
Competition comes from aircraft and engine makers, which are strongly developing their after-sales services through intellectual property licences. The group positions itself through partnerships and its global industrial network.
Airlines that do not take part in mergers could be marginalised, and competition between European and non-European carriers remains dynamic, with cost differences.
- Lufthansa Technik
Maintenance arm of Lufthansa, partner in the Spairliners joint venture, and also a competitor in the MRO market.
- Safran
Partner in the nacelle maintenance joint ventures, and also a major player in equipment and engines.
- Sabena Technics
Partner in Singapore Component Solutions, and also a provider of MRO services in the same segments.
- AAR
Partner in xCelle Americas, also active in the nacelle MRO market in North America.
News & filings
In the press
- Portugal Picks Lufthansa Over Air France-KLM for TAP StakeSkift · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lufthansa și Air France-KLM vor să distrugă RyanAir - Flux24.roSurge — Google News · 10 Oct 2026 · RO
- Air France-KLM Just Quietly Committed To Flying Its Airbus A350s & Boeing 787s Into The 2040sSimple Flying · 03 Oct 2026 · EN
- Portugal to Negotiate With Lufthansa, Air France-KLM on TAP SaleBloomberg Markets · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Air France-KLM CEO Discusses Resuming Gulf FlightsBloomberg Markets · 07 Jun 2026 · EN
- Air France-KLM CEO on Fuel Prices and Gulf FlightsBloomberg Markets · 07 Jun 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202225 Apr 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Air France-KLM · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.