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olivLaw · European equity research

ALSTOM ALO.PA

France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0010220475 · Vertical: Listed companies from France

10.96EUR−1.57% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Alstom is a European manufacturer of rail rolling stock, delivering trains, metros and signalling systems. Fiscal 2025/26 brought an adjusted margin below expectations and weaker cash generation, and management aims to restore consistent execution. For the period, revenue reached 19171 million EUR and the adjusted operating margin 6.1 %.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ALSTOM (ALO.PA) stock was 10.96 EUR (−1.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.8 bn EUR, P/E 18.3 on diluted EPS of 0.60 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.65%, beta 1.06, 52-week range 10.96–29.84 EUR.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.8 bn EUR
shares as of 31 Mar 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.60 · TTM to 31 Mar 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.47%
TTM to 31 Mar 2026
Dividend yield
0.65%
DPS 12m 0.07
Beta (2y)
1.06
Volatility (1y) 55%
52-week range
10.9629.84

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
17.7
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.20 – 18.92
below the lower band · %B -0.03 · band width 51.3%
SMA 50 / 200
15.37 / 18.82
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.99 / -0.38
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyEURO STOXX 50vs EURO STOXX 50Vertical median
1 month−32.3%+0.4%−32.7 pp—
3 months−35.2%−3.3%−32.0 pp—
6 months−37.5%+4.0%−41.5 pp—
Year to date−56.5%+8.1%−64.6 pp—
1 year−49.3%+10.7%−60.0 pp−6.8%
3 years−20.3%+50.1%−70.4 pp−15.9%
5 years−65.1%+43.6%−108.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−63.3%
20 Feb 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−69.5%
10 Nov 2021 → 13 Dec 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−19.0%
EURO STOXX 50 +7.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 40.4, median 53.1, max 65.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202420252026
Revenue17.6 bn18.5 bn19.2 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+4.9%+3.7%
Net income-309.0 m149.0 m324.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+117.4%
Diluted EPS-0.800.310.60
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+93.5%
net %-1.8%0.8%1.7%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailable

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026

Cash
2.3 bn EUR
Financial debt
2.8 bn EUR
Net debt
464.0 m EUR
Equity
10.8 bn EUR
Total assets
35.0 bn EUR
Debt / equity
0.26x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
3.0%
ROA
0.9%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (EUR)

Margins

Income statement · EUR

Revenue
2024
17.6 bn
2025
18.5 bn
2026
19.2 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
15.4 bn
2025
16.2 bn
2026
16.8 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
2.2 bn ≈
2025
2.3 bn ≈
2026
2.4 bn ≈

esef· 02 Jun 2026derived

Research & development
2024
609.0 m
2025
581.0 m
2026
623.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Operating income
2024
-12.0 m
2025
463.0 m
2026
544.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Interest expense
2024
289.0 m
2025
252.0 m
2026
204.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
-254.0 m
2025
249.0 m
2026
379.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Income tax
2024
6.0 m
2025
182.0 m
2026
199.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Net income
2024
-309.0 m
2025
149.0 m
2026
324.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-0.80
2025
0.31
2026
0.60

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
0.16
2025
0.05
2026
0.07

esef· 02 Jun 2026derived

Balance sheet · EUR

Cash
2024
976.0 m
2025
2.3 bn
2026
2.3 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Inventories
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.2 bn
2026
4.3 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.7 bn
2026
2.9 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
9.1 bn
2025
9.1 bn
2026
9.1 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
1.8 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Total assets
2024
33.3 bn
2025
34.6 bn
2026
35.0 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
1.3 bn
2025
87.0 m
2026
781.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.7 bn
2026
2.0 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Equity
2024
8.8 bn
2025
10.6 bn
2026
10.8 bn

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
381.5 m
2025
480.6 m
2026
531.1 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026derived

Cash flow · EUR

Operating cash flow
2024
-82.0 m
2025
972.0 m
2026
891.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2024
-431.0 m
2025
123.0 m
2026
-552.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
696.0 m
2025
244.0 m
2026
-273.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
61.0 m
2025
24.0 m
2026
38.0 m

esef· 02 Jun 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
17.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
117.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
93.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
12.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
ROA
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
ROIC
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
464.0 m EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Interest coverage
2.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
891.0 m EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
91 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.8 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Enterprise value
6.3 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
18.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
11.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
EV/Sales
0.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

10.96 EUR

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.8 bn EUR

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.8 bn EUR
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Mar 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 31 Mar 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Mar 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Mar 2026
Source: esefpublished 02 Jun 2026
verified 74derived 6

Score by group

40% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
6.65
EUR per share
Mid
10.28
EUR per share
High
17.88
EUR per share
Price: 10.96 EUR
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -6.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -6.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.65 – 17.88 EUR.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (EUR per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E6.65 – 17.88 (Mid 10.28)
    20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x
    74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.97 – 1.33 (Mid 1.12)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
3.0%
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
8.5%
Terminal growth
2.0%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality4.1%29 (vs peers)26%
Net margin · Quality1.7%56 (vs peers)16%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.7x18 (on a fixed band)16%
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation18.3x52 (vs peers)26%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.7%9 (on a fixed band)16%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial18/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality39/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial9/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial52/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ALSTOM (ALO.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.2 bn EUR in 2026; YoY growth 3.7%; net margin 1.7%; ROE 3.1%.

The estimated value range is 6.65–17.88 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.28 EUR, the price of 10.96 EUR leaves a potential of -6.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -6.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 4.1%
  • Interest coverage: 2.7x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
18.3x
vertical median 20.9x
below median (−12.4%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.3x
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 0.6x
below median (−53.2%)
P/B
0.5x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−61.1%)
ROE
3.1%
vertical median 4.5%
below median (−32.2%)
Net margin
1.7%
vertical median 1.1%
above median (+50.0%)
EBIT margin
2.8%
vertical median 3.2%
below median (−11.6%)
Revenue YoY
3.7%
vertical median -0.9%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -1.2x
Dividend yield
0.7%
vertical median 2.1%
below median (−68.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude109.3 bn33.212.9%12.2%−2.0%+26% / +32%
BN.PADanone44.1 bn21.911.9%7.4%−0.9%−11% / +16%
AC.PAAccor13.8 bn30.79.6%8.0%+0.6%+6% / +56%
ADP.PAAeroports De Paris11.7 bn34.17.8%5.6%+12.1%−7% / +4%
AKE.PAArkema7.1 bn115.40.9%0.7%−5.0%+12% / −37%
ALO.PAAlstom5.8 bn18.33.1%1.7%+3.7%−51% / −4%
AF.PAAir France - Klm4.3 bn13.6—1.0%+4.8%+20% / +9%
ATE.PAAlten3.1 bn29.54.8%2.6%−1.1%+33% / −29%
BB.PASociete Bic2.7 bn31.35.0%4.1%−4.8%+32% / +5%
ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners1.4 bn13.021.9%36.6%−8.1%−24% / −35%
74SW.PA74software792.7 m20.98.9%8.5%+44.8%−13% / +41%
AUB.PAAubay667.4 m17.813.6%6.3%+11.3%+3% / +45%
ASY.PAAssystem507.1 m69.92.5%1.1%+7.4%−19% / −18%
ATO.PAAtos Se483.0 m—-23,400.0%-17.5%−16.5%−45% / −94%
ARAMI.PAAramis Group298.8 m15.010.0%0.8%+6.3%−33% / −16%
ARVEN.PAArverne Group246.1 m—-14.0%-115.3%+27.0%+20% / −35%
BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest189.4 m—-8.6%-5.7%−2.9%unavailable / unavailable
ALCIS.PACatering International & Services145.0 m28.49.3%1.9%+5.8%+39% / +107%
ALCGM.PACegedim144.6 m—-2.6%-1.2%+10.9%−26% / −49%
ATEME.PAAteme144.0 m151.32.8%1.0%+2.2%+82% / +77%
ALHEX.PAHexaom144.0 m6.79.9%2.2%+13.1%−32% / +7%
ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon111.7 m16.54.2%8.8%−17.9%+6% / +8%
ALHYF.PALhyfe75.8 m—-33.4%-570.5%+287.2%unavailable / unavailable
ALFER.PASergeferrari Group61.5 m11.55.1%1.5%+7.4%−33% / −27%
ABEO.PAAbeo60.8 m7.36.9%3.0%+12.6%−13% / −54%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ALO.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (EUR)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
6.53
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
11.55
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
17.41
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
6.24
Total return -42% · Per year -16%
12.42
Total return 15% · Per year 5%
20.57
Total return 90% · Per year 24%
5 years
5.95
Total return -43% · Per year -11%
13.36
Total return 26% · Per year 5%
24.30
Total return 127% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.11
  • Net margin± 2.17
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.80
  • Annual dilution± 0.18

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Alstom is a European manufacturer of rail rolling stock, delivering trains, metros and signalling systems. Fiscal 2025/26 brought an adjusted margin below expectations and weaker cash generation, and management aims to restore consistent execution 1. For the period, revenue reached 19171 million EUR and the adjusted operating margin 6.1 % 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The group has a large order book and a long-term customer base, which gives visibility on future revenue 1.
  • The shareholder structure includes major institutional investors, which may support strategic stability 1.
  • The group holds a leading position in a rail market that management considers highly attractive 1.

Weaknesses

  • Profitability in fiscal 2025/26 fell short of expectations, and cash generation weakened 1.
  • Large contracts rely on cost and margin estimates, which expose results to revisions 1.
  • Financial debt and working capital requirements could limit flexibility during periods of delay 1.

Opportunities

  • If execution returns to the expected level, margins could rise toward medium-term targets 1.
  • Growing investment in urban and intercity transport could support new orders 1.
  • A detailed operational plan, due in 2027, could bring clarity to investors 1.

Threats

  • Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could delay ongoing projects 1.
  • Changes in customs tariffs could raise costs and reduce margins 1.
  • Ongoing judicial investigations on compliance and competition could lead to costs or penalties 1.

Risks

  • Execution of long-term projectshigh

    Construction contracts are accounted for using cost and margin-at-completion estimates, and overruns could change annual results 1.

  • Litigation and investigationshigh

    The group is involved in contractual disputes and judicial proceedings on compliance and competition, and their outcome could require additional provisions 1.

  • Middle East tensionsmedium

    Projects in the region could be delayed if the security situation deteriorates, and the group has taken mitigation measures 1.

  • Customs tariffsmedium

    Tariff fluctuations could change component and delivery costs, which could affect margins 1.

  • Cash generationmedium

    Free cash flow declined and cash conversion was weaker, and seasonal outflow in the first half of the next year could add pressure 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If project execution stabilises, margins could return toward the targeted level and cash generation could improve 1.
  • Management describes the rail market as highly attractive, which could support a solid order book 1.
  • A complete operational plan, announced for early 2027, could clarify the strategic direction and medium-term goals 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If profitability remains below expectations, pressure on cash flow and net debt could persist 1.
  • Ongoing litigation and investigations could lead to additional costs or larger provisions 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions and customs tariffs could delay deliveries and reduce project margins 1.

What to watch

  • Publication of the operational plan and medium-term ambitionsearly 2027
  • Progress of the adjusted operating margin against the target of around 6.5 %fiscal 2026/27
  • Pace of free cash flow consumption in the first halffirst half 2026/27
  • Developments in the Middle East and their effect on projectsfiscal 2026/27

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Alstom designs, manufactures and maintains rail rolling stock and systems, including trains, metros, trams and signalling solutions. Revenue comes from long-term construction contracts and service contracts, recognised using the cost-to-cost method 1. The group reports an order book and a gross margin on that book, which indicates the direction of contracts already signed 1.

The business is organised around long-term projects, where cost and margin-at-completion estimates play a central role in the financial statements. Auditors treated revenue recognition on these contracts as a key audit matter, indicating a high level of judgement in reporting 1. As a result, annual results are sensitive to revisions of project estimates.

The group has a balance sheet with net financial debt and a shareholder base split between the public and major institutional investors, including Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec and Bpifrance Investissement 1. The shareholder structure and investor commitments may influence governance, especially during restructuring periods.

Segments

Rolling stock and systems

The main segment delivers trains and metros, and revenue depends on long-term production contracts. Planned production for fiscal 2026/27 is 4400 to 4500 cars, according to group guidance 1.

Services and modernisation

Long-term service contracts generate recurring revenue and support the order book over long periods. The group considers these contracts to contribute to margin stability, but their delivery depends on respecting initial estimates 1.

Market context

The group describes the rail market as highly attractive, with demand supported by the modernisation of urban and intercity transport. The attractiveness is tempered by execution and cost risks, so short-term results depend on project quality. Outlook for 2026/27 foresees an order-to-sales ratio above 1 and organic revenue growth of around 5 % 1.

The business is exposed to geopolitical contexts and customs tariffs, and the group assumes no further disruption will arise, particularly in the Middle East, where it has ongoing projects 1. If these assumptions change, delivery schedules and payment timetables could be affected.

Trends

  • Demand for rail transporttailwind

    The group sees the rail market as highly attractive over the long term, which supports order volume and organic growth prospects 1. If public transport investment remains high, demand pressure could stay favourable.

  • Customs tariffs and international tradeheadwind

    The group says it aims to mitigate the impact of customs tariff fluctuations, which shows its exposure to international trade flows 1. If tariffs rise, component costs and delivery delays could weigh on margins.

  • Middle East tensionsheadwind

    The group has projects in affected countries, and safety measures and continuity of activity are under way 1. If the situation worsens, project execution could be delayed.

  • Margin and operational efficiencymixed

    The adjusted operating margin fell to 6.1 % in fiscal 2025/26, and management targets 6.5 % in 2026/27 and 8-10 % over the medium term 1. Success in this recovery could support results if execution stays consistent.

Competitive position

The supplied sources do not name the group's direct competitors. A comparative view of market position cannot be built from the annual report alone, as it presents only internal figures and general market context 1. A full comparison would require competitors' own reports.

The group operates in a market of large contracts, where advantage depends on project execution, order-book margin and the ability to deliver on time. A higher risk profile in complex projects could reduce competitiveness if estimates are exceeded 1.

  • Competitors not named in the source

    The sources do not name competitors. Comparative analysis should rely on their own reports rather than the group's filings.

  • European rolling stock and signalling suppliers

    The sources give no details on these competitors. Comparison should draw on their financial reports.

  • Asian rolling stock manufacturers

    The sources include no data on these competitors. Their impact on market share cannot be assessed from the text provided.

  • Signalling system integrators

    The sources do not identify them. Their role in tenders could influence signalling contract margins, but the text does not support this.

News & filings

In the press

Annual reports (ESEF)

Sources

  1. [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ALSTOM · 31 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

ALSTOM (ALO.PA): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw