olivLaw · European equity research
Aubay AUB.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0000063737 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Aubay is a European IT services and consulting group active mainly in France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Italy, with a strategy anchored in external growth and operating margin targets. For fiscal 2025, the results tied to executive bonuses were assessed on revenue growth of 11.3 % and an operating margin of 9.1 %, making 2025 a useful reference point for tracking group performance.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Aubay (AUB.PA) stock was 49.55 EUR (−5.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 629.9 m EUR, P/E 16.8 on diluted EPS of 2.95 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.62%, beta 0.47, 52-week range 40.50–61.30 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 47.82 – 53.00
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.33 · band width 10.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 51.27 / 51.44
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / -0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.8% | −4.2% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.3% | +4.3% | −9.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.2% | +7.5% | −20.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +9.9% | −6.8 pp | −9.1% |
| 3 years | +45.3% | +49.8% | −4.5 pp | −18.0% |
| 5 years | −11.5% | +42.8% | −54.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 15.4, median 16.4, max 19.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 534.1 m | 540.3 m | 601.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.2% | +11.3% |
| Net income | 33.4 m | 37.6 m | 38.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.7% | +1.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.54 | 2.93 | 2.95 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +15.4% | +0.7% |
| net % | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 81.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 21.8 m EUR
- Net debt
- -59.2 m EUR
- Equity
- 290.6 m EUR
- Total assets
- 568.4 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.08x
- Current ratio
- 1.44x
- ROE
- 13.6%
- ROA
- 7.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 534.1 m | 540.3 m | 601.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 42.3 m | 45.9 m | 50.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 10.0 m | 11.1 m | 12.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 33.4 m | 37.6 m | 38.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.54 | 2.93 | 2.95 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.30 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 52.6 m | 84.7 m | 81.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 736.0 k | 686.0 k | 867.0 k | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 293.6 m | 305.2 m | 314.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.3 m | 3.7 m | 10.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 131.3 m | 131.3 m | 185.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 884.0 k | 1.5 m | 14.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 457.6 m | 470.8 m | 568.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.1 m | 541.0 k | 21.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 170.4 m | 175.6 m | 218.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 261.4 m | 271.9 m | 290.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 13.1 m | 12.8 m | 12.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 629.9 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.68 – 86.37 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E33.15 – 86.37 (Mid 50.43)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.2x – 29.3x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)17.68 – 24.11 (Mid 20.40)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.1% | 81 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.3% | 79 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.8x | 57 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial53/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial57/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AUBAY (AUB.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 601.6 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 11.3%; net margin 6.3%; ROE 13.6%.
The estimated value range is 25.41–55.24 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 35.41 EUR, the price of 49.55 EUR leaves a potential of -28.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -39.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.1%
- Net margin: 6.3%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 108.2 bn | 32.8 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +25% / +31% |
| BN.PADanone | 43.2 bn | 21.4 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −13% / +14% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.9 bn | 31.1 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +7% / +57% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.6 bn | 33.9 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.0 bn | 113.0 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +10% / −38% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.7 bn | 17.9 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −52% / −6% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.6 bn | 14.5 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +28% / +16% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.0 bn | 28.7 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +30% / −30% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.0 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +31% / +4% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 12.6 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −26% / −37% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 799.8 m | 21.0 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −12% / +42% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 629.9 m | 16.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | −3% / +37% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 503.5 m | 69.4 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −19% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 472.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −46% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 291.4 m | 14.7 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −34% / −18% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 184.6 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 153.5 m | 161.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +94% / +89% |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 144.6 m | 28.3 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +106% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 142.4 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −27% / −50% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 110.8 m | 16.3 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +5% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 74.4 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 62.9 m | 11.7 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −31% / −26% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 59.3 m | 7.1 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −15% / −55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AUB.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 31.84 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 56.11 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 84.28 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 35.30 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 69.57 Total return 50% · Per year 15% | 114.09 Total return 143% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 39.14 Total return -9% · Per year -2% | 86.26 Total return 93% · Per year 14% | 154.45 Total return 236% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 17.39
- Net margin± 12.17
- Annual revenue growth± 9.38
- Annual dilution± 1.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aubay is a European IT services and consulting group active mainly in France, Belgium, Luxembourg and Italy, with a strategy anchored in external growth and operating margin targets. For fiscal 2025, the results tied to executive bonuses were assessed on revenue growth of 11.3 % 1 and an operating margin of 9.1 % 1, making 2025 a useful reference point for tracking group performance.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a long track record and a network of operations in several European countries, built through successive acquisitions 1.
- Leadership continuity is ensured through deputy chief executives with many years of activity within the group 1.
- Financial and social responsibility objectives are clearly defined and tracked in executive pay 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few European markets may limit revenue diversification if one region slows down 1.
- The operating margin sits within its target range but leaves little room above the minimum threshold 1.
- The sources do not provide a separate breakdown of results by segment, which makes assessing each country harder 1.
Opportunities
- The acquisition strategy could keep opening new markets or strengthening existing ones, if suitable opportunities arise 1.
- Social responsibility commitments can help attract clients who require high sustainability standards 1.
- The leadership transition could bring new strategic directions if it is well managed 1.
Risks
- Dependence on acquisitionsmedium
The external growth strategy brings integration risks and possible impairment of acquired assets if results do not follow plan 1.
- Operating marginhigh
Keeping the margin within the target range may become difficult if personnel costs rise faster than billing rates 1.
- Leadership transitionmedium
The change of chairman and operational structure in 2026 may create uncertainty in strategy execution 1.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Activity concentrated in a few European countries exposes the group to local economic developments 1.
- Compliance and governancelow
Anti-corruption and parity objectives require rigorous processes, and any shortfall could carry reputational consequences 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue growth and margin in 2025, as used in pay criteria, could point to solid execution of the strategy 1.
- The long experience of leadership and continuity of the governance structure could support stability over the long term 1.
- Social responsibility commitments could strengthen client relationships and appeal to talent 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- General meeting and handover of the board chairmanship2026
- Annual financial results and operating margin trendnext 10-K
- Progress on acquisitions and their integration2027
- Achievement of diversity and anti-corruption targets2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Aubay group was launched as a project in 1997 and developed through numerous acquisitions, according to the annual report 1. Operational leadership is provided by a chief executive and several deputy chief executives, each responsible for a geographic area or function such as finance, legal affairs or governance 1. Beyond financial indicators, the company tracks a corporate social responsibility roadmap whose achievement feeds into executive variable pay 1.
The governance structure changes in 2026: the founding chairman, a non-executive director, proposed handing the chairmanship of the board to the chief executive, the decision to be confirmed after the general meeting of 12 May 2026 1. Operational leadership is set to pass to a duo of deputy chief executives whose responsibilities already sit within the group 1.
Operationally, the group is organised by country, and its revenue is tied to consulting and software development commitments from corporate clients 1. To read the figures correctly, note that executive bonuses depend on a minimum level of revenue and operating margin, which shows how important controlled growth is for the company 1.
Segments
France operations
The French business is run by one of the deputy chief executives, who coordinates the group's local operations 1. It is the company's main market, and its performance directly influences consolidated revenue indicators 1.
Market context
The IT services and consulting market in Western Europe is competitive, and the group measures its performance through revenue growth and operating margin, indicators considered central to executive pay 1. The 2025 thresholds, from 540 million euros to above 561 million euros for revenue and between 8 % and 9.5 % for margin, show the performance level the company pursues 1.
Social responsibility goals, such as keeping the share of women in management above 30 % or training at least 80 % of sensitive employees on anti-corruption, point to growing market attention to governance and compliance 1. These criteria could influence the company's appeal to corporate clients who demand high standards of conduct 1.
Trends
- Growth through acquisitionstailwind
The group has carried out numerous external growth operations since its creation, indicating a strategy built on consolidation 1. If the integration of these acquisitions continues to work well, it could support expansion in existing markets 1.
- Pressure on marginsheadwind
The operating margin targets set for 2025 suggest that sustaining profitability remains a challenge as the company grows 1. If costs rise faster than revenue, margins could be affected 1.
- Leadership transitionmixed
The 2026 change of chairman and operational leadership can bring continuity but also transition risks, especially while the group pursues its financial objectives 1. The effect depends on how well the new structure works in practice 1.
- Social responsibility commitmentsmixed
Decarbonisation and parity criteria are built into variable pay, which signals steady pressure toward sustainable practices 1. This orientation can support client relationships but carries compliance costs 1.
Competitive position
The available sources do not explicitly name the group's competitors, so the competitive analysis rests on the general context of the European IT services market 1. Comparison with other players would require additional data from independent sources 1.
The group's competitive advantage appears to come from its presence in several European countries and from experience built through numerous acquisitions 1. If this network continues to be used well, it could support the company's position against rivals 1.
- European IT services firms
Sources do not name competitors; additional sources are needed to identify them.
- Technology consulting providers
General category of competitors, not explicitly identified in the annual report.
- Regional systems integrators
Local players in France, Belgium and Italy, not detailed in the available source.
- Software and cloud companies
Indirect competition, assessed from the general context, without names from the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Aubay · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.