olivLaw · European equity research
ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ Α.Ε. GEKTERNA.AT
Greece · Athens Stock Exchange · ISIN GRS145003000 · Vertical: Listed companies from Greece
ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ is one of the largest business groups in Greece, active in construction, energy, concessions, real estate and mining across Central and South-East Europe and the Middle East. The group manages a concession portfolio with an average contractual duration of 25 years, a factor that matters for long-term revenue stability.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ Α.Ε. (GEKTERNA.AT) stock was 39.94 EUR (−2.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.0 bn EUR, P/E 28.8 on diluted EPS of 1.39 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.00%, beta 0.71, 52-week range 23.00–47.18 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 38.23 – 41.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 7.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.32 / 40.65
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.73 / -0.94
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.3% | +0.4% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.9% | −3.3% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.5% | +4.0% | −11.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +57.1% | +8.1% | +49.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +73.2% | +10.7% | +62.5 pp | +0.9% |
| 3 years | +192.4% | +50.1% | +142.3 pp | +35.3% |
| 5 years | +313.9% | +43.6% | +270.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 2.2, median 8.4, max 18.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.1% | +18.6% |
| Net income | 147.8 m | 818.4 m | 139.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +453.7% | −83.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.57 | 8.27 | 1.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +426.8% | −83.2% |
| net % | 4.5% | 25.2% | 3.6% |
| Free cash flow | 223.7 m | -2.9 bn | -778.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 5.7 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 4.0 bn EUR
- Equity
- 2.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 9.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 2.78x
- Current ratio
- 1.94x
- ROE
- 7.3%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- -20.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 335.8 m | 337.2 m | 434.2 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 6.5 m | 6.9 m | 3.2 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 251.9 m | 149.6 m | 297.7 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 190.8 m | 53.1 m | 182.9 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 63.5 m | 35.4 m | 46.3 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 147.8 m | 818.4 m | 139.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.57 | 8.27 | 1.39 | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.40 | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 66.9 m | 44.6 m | 37.9 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 177.9 m | 168.7 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.4 m | 25.6 m | 25.6 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 682.2 m | 3.9 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.1 bn | 8.4 bn | 9.9 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 414.9 m | 494.0 m | 367.2 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 107.7 m | 139.9 m | 96.7 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.6 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.8 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.9 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 94.1 m | 98.9 m | 100.1 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 235.1 m | 427.0 m | 556.6 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 11.5 m | 3.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 223.7 m ≈ | -2.9 bn ≈ | -778.7 m ≈ | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -184.2 m | -3.0 bn | -1.4 bn | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -232.4 m | 2.7 bn | 982.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 30.4 m | 7.2 m | 6.7 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.44 – 19.03 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E11.71 – 19.03 (Mid 15.70)26 companies used · median multiple 11.3x · quartiles 8.4x – 13.7xAEGN.AT, AEM.AT, ALMY.AT, ASCO.AT, ASTAK.AT, AVAX.AT, BELA.AT, BIOKA.AT, BIOSK.AT, BIOT.AT, BRIQ.AT, BYLOT.AT, CENER.AT, CENTR.AT, DAIOS.AT, DIMAND.AT, EIS.AT, ELBE.AT, ELHA.AT, ELLAKTOR.AT, ELSTR.AT, ELTON.AT, ETE.AT, EUROB.AT, EYAPS.AT, FAIS.AT
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.44 – 7.42 (Mid 6.28)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.1% | 30 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.6% | 36 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -560.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 95 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 28.8x | 10 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -19.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial95/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality23/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ Α.Ε. (GEKTERNA.AT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 18.6%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 7.4%.
The estimated value range is 8.57–13.23 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.99 EUR, the price of 39.94 EUR leaves a potential of -72.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -263.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 4.1%
- FCF conversion: -560.2%
- P/E (TTM): 28.8x
- FCF yield: -19.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Greece · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROB.ATΤραπεζα Eurobank Ανωνυμη Eταιρεια | 17.3 bn | 12.7 | 14.0% | 39.7% | +2.7% | +38% / +178% |
| ETE.ATΕθνικη Τραπεζα Της Ελλαδος Α.ε. | 15.2 bn | 13.1 | 13.3% | 42.5% | −5.4% | +24% / +167% |
| ELPE.ATHelleniq Energy Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Συμμετοχων | 4.9 bn | 28.5 | 6.4% | 1.5% | −9.0% | +97% / +114% |
| CENER.ATCenergy Holdings | 4.5 bn | 23.5 | 24.3% | 9.4% | +14.7% | +45% / +207% |
| GEKTERNA.ATΓεκ Τερνα Α.ε. | 4.0 bn | 28.8 | 7.4% | 3.6% | +18.6% | +61% / +202% |
| BELA.ATJumbo Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια | 3.7 bn | 11.6 | 21.5% | 26.0% | +7.2% | +1% / +15% |
| AKTR.ATΑκtor Ανώνυμη Εταιρεία Συμμετοχών, Τεχνικών Και Ενεργειακών Έργων | 2.0 bn | 110.5 | 6.7% | 1.3% | +11.2% | +7% / +186% |
| EYDAP.ATΕταιρια Υδρευσεως Και Αποχετευσεως Πρωτευουσης Ανωνυμη Εταιρια | 1.5 bn | — | -2.6% | -5.9% | −2.4% | +86% / +136% |
| ELHA.ATEλβαλχαλκορ Ελληνικη Βιομηχανια Χαλκου Και Αλουμινιου Ανωνυμος Εταιρεια | 1.3 bn | 12.4 | 9.8% | 2.9% | +5.1% | +6% / +83% |
| AEGN.ATΑεροπορια Αιγαιου Ανωνυμη Αεροπορικη Εταιρεια | 1.0 bn | 6.9 | 27.7% | 7.9% | +4.6% | −21% / −1% |
| AVAX.ATΑβαξ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Εργοληπτικη-Τουριστικη-Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη-Οικοδομικων Υλικων & Μηχανηματων | 505.7 m | 10.7 | 25.9% | 5.0% | +47.1% | +40% / +123% |
| BYLOT.ATBally's Intralot Α.ε. | 464.8 m | 15.3 | -9.3% | -12.6% | +34.8% | +12% / +18% |
| ELLAKTOR.ATΕλλακτωρ Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 421.5 m | 2.7 | 26.1% | 175.2% | −74.8% | −32% / −44% |
| AEM.ATAlter Ego Media Α.ε. | 356.1 m | 18.1 | 18.3% | 14.0% | +12.6% | −2% / unavailable |
| ALMY.ATΑλουμυλ Βιομηχανια Αλουμινιου Αε | 324.0 m | 10.5 | 23.5% | 6.0% | +11.7% | +16% / +121% |
| DIMAND.ATDimand Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Αξιοποιησης Και Εκμεταλλευσης Ακινητων Και Κατασκευων Υπηρεσιων Και Συμμετοχων | 266.7 m | 7.6 | 18.5% | 58.5% | +110.6% | +42% / +28% |
| EYAPS.ATΕταιρεια Υδρευσης & Αποχετευσης Θεσσαλονικης Α.ε. | 169.9 m | 22.0 | 4.1% | 8.8% | +2.4% | +24% / +42% |
| EVR.ATΕυρώπη Holdings Α.ε. | 168.6 m | 37.2 | 2.9% | 30.7% | +435.3% | −32% / +33% |
| BRIQ.ATBriq Properties Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια Επενδυσεων Σε Ακινητη Περιουσια | 150.0 m | 5.9 | 15.5% | 116.9% | +37.8% | +13% / +70% |
| FAIS.ATΦαις Συμμετοχων Ανωνυμη Εταιρεια | 117.2 m | 8.7 | 22.1% | 6.3% | +12.9% | −6% / unavailable |
| DAIOS.ATΔαϊος Πλαστικα Ανωνυμη Βιομηχανικη Εμπορικη Εταιρεια Α.ε. | 107.2 m | 10.9 | 14.0% | 15.6% | +9.1% | 0% / +123% |
| ASTAK.ATAlpha Real Estate Services Ae | 93.3 m | 12.4 | 10.4% | 30.3% | +22.4% | −8% / −8% |
| ASCO.ATA.s. Εμπορικη-Βιομηχανικη Εταιρια Η/υ & Παιχνιδιων Α.ε. | 59.8 m | 10.5 | 14.1% | 15.8% | +16.4% | +11% / +106% |
| AVE.ATAve Α.ε. | 50.9 m | — | -25.2% | -7.4% | +8.2% | −7% / −12% |
| ELTON.ATΕλτον Διεθνους Εμποριου Ανωνυμη Εμπορικη Βιομηχανικη Εταιρεια | 47.3 m | 13.9 | 4.9% | 1.9% | +8.6% | −11% / −18% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GEKTERNA.AT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 26.10 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 45.93 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 68.90 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 30.96 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 60.74 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 99.21 Total return 153% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 36.72 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 80.33 Total return 109% · Per year 16% | 142.86 Total return 268% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 15.19
- Net margin± 10.63
- Annual revenue growth± 7.93
- Annual dilution± 0.89
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ is one of the largest business groups in Greece, active in construction, energy, concessions, real estate and mining across Central and South-East Europe and the Middle East 1. The group manages a concession portfolio with an average contractual duration of 25 years, a factor that matters for long-term revenue stability 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group holds leading positions in several segments, with a construction subsidiary described as the strongest in Greece 1.
- The concession portfolio has a long average duration and is diversified, giving visibility on long-term revenues 1.
- Vertical integration in energy reduces exposure to market risk and gives flexibility to seize opportunities 1.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on contracts with the state and public agencies makes revenues sensitive to budget decisions and payment delays 1.
- Energy activity based on thermal sources exposes the group to decarbonisation pressure 1.
- The complex multi-segment structure may make it harder to assess the performance of each activity separately 1.
Opportunities
- Infrastructure and digitalisation programmes could generate new concession and construction projects 1.
- Expansion in Central and South-East Europe could widen the project base if local conditions are favourable 1.
- Sustainable development criteria may open access to projects financed under ESG conditions 1.
Risks
- Dependence on public contractsmedium
Many projects depend on government clients and long-term contracts, which could expose the group to payment delays or policy changes 1.
- Exposure to the energy transitionhigh
Thermal energy production could be affected by decarbonisation policies that may reduce the value of existing assets 1.
- Market risk in energymedium
Energy price swings can affect margins, although vertical integration partly reduces this exposure 1.
- Execution risk in constructionmedium
Complex infrastructure projects can face cost or schedule overruns, affecting profitability 1.
- ESG reporting risklow
The annual report notes risks around the completeness and availability of sustainability data, which could affect the quality of information provided 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A long-duration, geographically diversified concession portfolio could offer predictable revenues if operations stay stable 1.
- A leading position in construction and energy integration could support a solid project pipeline if the market stays active 1.
- The strategic focus on sustainable development could facilitate access to new projects with ESG criteria 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on public contracts could make revenues vulnerable to payment delays or cuts in investment 1.
- Thermal energy assets could become less valuable if decarbonisation policies accelerate 1.
- The group's complexity could make it difficult to assess each segment and its associated risks separately 1.
What to watch
- Development of the concession portfolio and new contract awards2027
- Decarbonisation strategy for energy activities2027
- Evolution of the real estate portfolio and reported values2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ group defines its main objective as sustainable and responsible growth, with a focus on competitiveness, investments that create additional value and stable returns for shareholders 1. Activities are organised across several segments, each with different customers, from public institutions to private clients 1. The 2025 annual report also stresses the link between strategy and corporate responsibility and sustainable development principles 1.
Segments
Construction (ΤΕΡΝΑ S.A.)
The wholly owned subsidiary ΤΕΡΝΑ S.A., founded in 1972, is described as the strongest construction company in Greece, specialised in complex infrastructure projects including roads, buildings, ports and energy projects 1. Customers are government agencies and private companies 1.
Energy
Electricity and natural gas production, supply and trading are carried out mainly through ΗΡΩΝ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΚΗ S.A., wholly owned by the group 1. The vertically integrated structure reduces market risk and creates opportunities at several levels 1.
Concessions
The group runs a concession portfolio covering motorways, airports, ports, integrated waste management infrastructure and digital transformation projects 1. Projects include Attiki Odos, Egnatia Odos and Heraklion International Airport, and the group presents itself as the largest investor in this field 1.
Market context
The group operates in Greece, Central and South-East Europe and the Middle East, serving public and private sector clients 1. The real estate portfolio, valued at 124 million euro, is spread across Greece, Romania and Bulgaria 1. The annual report does not in this source provide market shares or total market sizes.
Trends
- Investment in infrastructure and public projectsmixed
Concessions and infrastructure construction depend on public programmes and long-term contracts, which could support demand if these programmes continue 1.
- Energy transitionheadwind
The group's energy activity, based on thermal generation, faces decarbonisation requirements that could change its long-term revenue mix 1.
- Focus on sustainable developmenttailwind
The annual report shows the ESG strategy is built into governance and investment planning, which could open access to projects requiring sustainability criteria 1.
- Diversified activitiestailwind
Presence across construction, real estate and mining may reduce reliance on a single economic cycle if demand in different segments moves differently 1.
Competitive position
The provided sources do not name direct competitors of the group. The group describes itself as the largest constructor and largest concession investor in Greece, but comparisons with other players are not quantified in the filing 1.
- Construction and concession companies in Greece and the region
The source names no competitors, so this is a general category without a ticker.
- Energy producers and traders in Greece
Competition in energy is not detailed in the report; the category has no US listing.
- European infrastructure concession operators
Concession competitors are not named in the source; no US ticker is given.
- Regional real estate developers
The real estate portfolio is described in the report, but competitors are not identified.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202523 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ΓΕΚ ΤΕΡΝΑ Α.Ε. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.